Last week, our own math samurai Jeff Zimmerman published the results of his latest xBABIP equation for pitchers. While this is useful and ripe for analyzing, keep in mind that Jeff noted he had “not tested it with pitchers to see if the data correlates better season-to-season than regular BABIP”. So we’re still not sure how well the formula works, but it’s still interesting enough to investigate. We’ll start with those pitchers who have thrown at least 50 innings as a starter and have underperformed their xBABIP marks. This won’t be a straight biggest underperformer list, but a cherry picked one of the more interesting names.

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Episode 152

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is now live!

Jason Collette and Nicholas Minnix open with some things on Caleb Joseph, Giancarlo Stanton, and Joey Gallo. They then get to some playing time questions on the Braves, Mets, Blue Jays, and Indians, as well as some chatter about the Nationals’ Michael Taylor. The pair then discusses some low-level changes to big-league rotations, with a couple of hurlers piquing their interests – in particular, Carlos Carrasco.

Collette and Minnix also touch on the Tigers’ bullpen, among others, before getting to the injured players – those making their ways back, including – perhaps – Andrew McCutchen, and those on their ways out and those who’ll fill in, such as Anibal Sanchez and Robbie Ray. They add thoughts on whether it’s time to drop either of the Rockies’ cornerstones before getting into some two-turn pitchers for the week.

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions so that we may answer them on our next episode.

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In 1948, Preston Tucker introduced the Tucker Sedan, a revolutionary automobile that innovated several safety features still in use today. The Tucker 48 posed a threat to the major automobile manufacturers of the time, and the company fell into bankruptcy amidst smear campaigns and a lengthy SEC trial, in which Tucker was acquitted on all counts. His story inspired the 1988 Francis Ford Coppola film Tucker: The Man and His Dream, which is an okay movie. Jeff Bridges is really good as Tucker, but it’s a pretty cheesy flick.

In 2014, Preston Tucker (no relation, at least that I know of) is an outfielder in the Astros’ system. Largely overlooked, thanks to Houston’s crazy-deep farm system, Tucker didn’t make a whole lot of top prospects lists this year, but he still got enough attention to slide in at No. 21 on SB Nation’s organizational consensus top prospect list.

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Let’s talk. This is the last tier rankings update of the season and I wanted to take this opportunity to explain how these rankings transport from my brain to these virtual pages of typed letters. Judging by your comments on these very rankings each month, it’s clear that you take these seriously. That’s a good thing, as it confirms that what we do here is truly helping you, or at least you would like what we do to be helping you.

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Zach Britton notched his 24th save of the season in a 14-pitch effort tonight in Toronto. The southpaw did so by inducing three consecutive worm burners off the bats of Juan Francisco, Danny Valencia and Colby Rasmus to seal the 2-1 victory for the Orioles. Britton is now 24-of-27 in save chances on the season and owns a 1.56 ERA (2.95 FIP). Britton continues to be successful in the ninth-inning thanks to his league-leading ~76% GB% (entering tonight). His 16.1% K-BB% fails to provide fantasy owners with the strikeouts they would hope for, but his ratios and save conversion rate make up for it.
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Episode 151

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is now live!

Eno Sarris and Nicholas Minnix discuss Josh Beckett, Jake Lamb, the Boston Red Sox’s outfield, the Chicago Cubs’ prospects and who might make up their future outfield, Bryce Harper, the Colorado Rockies’ outfield, Clay Buchholz, Danny Salazar, Jacob Turner, Brad Penny, Masahiro Tanaka, Brett Lawrie, Andrew McCutchen, Michael Pineda, Cliff Lee, and some requests – Stephen Piscotty, Brett Gardner, and Will Venable.

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions so that we may answer them on our next episode.

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• The Nationals are basically admitting Bryce Harper’s struggles are because his thumb is not yet healed.

He went on the disabled list for two months, and when he came back, he had a new injury that affected his swing. A separate, disquieting notion had taken root, a sense that he was trying to find something that he had lost. “It was like old Bryce right there,” hitting coach Rick Schu said after one batting practice session. “Good to see.”

Hand injuries are hell on hitters – Ryan Zimmerman and Wilson Ramos both suffered power drains when they returned this season. Without full strength in his hand, Harper can make the same swing he always and receive different feedback. You can see why he spiked his helmet at first base after the flyout to the track last night, where the frustration comes from. For so long, the swing he put on that ball would be enough to drive it out of the park. With a left thumb three months removed surgery, it died at the track.

Harper keeps changing his stance and tweaking his swing, but what Harper’s looking for may not be discovered until his thumb strengthens. It is a physical issue that led to shaken confidence that led to mechanical issues.

“I would not discount the fact that he had an injury to his top hand,” Williams said on 106.7 The Fan. “If you don’t feel strong or if you feel something is wrong with your hand, that can affect you. Him coming back from an injury is not easy. If we have a little bit of patience, put in some good hard work, hopefully he gets hot here and he can carry us a little bit, too.”

It seems Harper is heading for a Carlos Gonzalez comp of “Great Talent, but Always Hurt”.

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I have been skeptical of Bud Norris, as perhaps others have been, for much of this season. His 3.68 (4.36 FIP, 4.26 xFIP, 4.17 SIERA) ERA isn’t spectacular, but it’s really the first time in his career in which he’s produced results notably better, really even at all better, than his ERA indicators.

Of course, there are a couple of simple things at which to point that could sort of easily help to explain Norris’ 2014 success. He’s posting a career-best walk rate of 7.7%. His fastball velocity is back near its peaks of his break-in seasons. His opponents’ BABIP (.284) and his LOB% (78.4), notably better than his career marks and league average, hint at the possibility of increased fortune for the right-hander this season. I could probably stop there and call it something close to a perfect storm.

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The dog days of summer are frequently the dog days of fantasy baseball, as many teams will feel locked into their current place in the standings now that players have had four months of the season to establish a baseline of expected performance. It is more difficult to trade for a player if his owner agrees with you on his value. However, some players will still improve over the final two months of the season, even some that you had already accepted as disappointments. The recent play of three veteran outfielders, all of whom have underperformed relative to their preseason expectations, has piqued my interest in particular.

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Welcome back my friends to the show that never ends
We’re so glad you could attend
Come inside! Come inside!

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