2014 AL Starting Pitcher Tier Rankings: August
Let’s talk. This is the last tier rankings update of the season and I wanted to take this opportunity to explain how these rankings transport from my brain to these virtual pages of typed letters. Judging by your comments on these very rankings each month, it’s clear that you take these seriously. That’s a good thing, as it confirms that what we do here is truly helping you, or at least you would like what we do to be helping you.
As many are aware, I project baseball players. This whole job is done during the preseason, of course. I then run those projections through the valuation system I use to calculate precise dollar values. These values can then be sorted to rank players, and in this instance, starting pitchers. As a result, my preseason rankings are 100% accurate. Not accurate in terms of where these players will rank at season’s end (I’m not that good), but accurate in terms of how I value each of them. You disagree with a pitcher’s placement? Great, I’ll try to convince you that my projection is going to turn out more accurate than yours.
Unfortunately, as soon as the season begins, these preseason projections lose some of their usefulness. And since my brain isn’t actually a computer, the task of updating my preseason projections to reflect in-season stuff is simply not possible. So what happens is this — I do my best to analyze every pitcher’s current performance, attempt to make any adjustments to my preseason thoughts, then move the player up or down in the tiers if necessary. But the moving up and down part becomes just a wild guess. The reason we have valuation methods performed on Excel is because our brains can’t possibly look at a statistical line of several players and quickly determine who is more valuable. Try that exercise with 100 pitchers!
Furthermore, I freely admit that I have missed players. Missed as in I didn’t realize a pitcher’s skills had changed dramatically from what I was projecting, and therefore left the player’s ranking the same, which may have been a mistake. This is not to make excuses and scream “ITZZZ HAAARRRRRRRDDDD”. Instead, it’s a window into my process of placing pitchers into tiers and why sometimes a pitcher might look ridiculously out of place.
Phew, let’s get to the tiers.
Tom Haverford
Yu Darvish
Felix Hernandez
Chris Sale
Max Scherzer
David Price
Someone please explain Felix Hernandez to me. Seriously. A sub-2.00 ERA, nearly backed by a 2.42 SIERA? A career best strikeout rate that has jumped for a third straight season and if his career marks were graphed, would form almost a complete upward slope? A walk rate that has declined every single year since 2008? King Felix? Nah. God Felix is more like it.
David Price is just another example of why I keep pounding the drum on fantasy owners putting too much stock in ERA. It fluctuates far too greatly during the season that at any given time, it just doesn’t mean a whole lot. At least not in terms of projecting future performance. Through his first 11 starts, Price had posted a 4.42 ERA. But, his xFIP was 2.69, with the large discrepancy due to an inflated .332 BABIP and ridiculous near 15% HR/FB rate. Since then, Price has posted a 2.12 ERA, with a nearly identical xFIP. Apparently all of a sudden, Price discovered how to limit hits on balls in play and the rate at which fly balls jump over the wall. Obviously, that isn’t what happened — it was simply a matter of fortunes turning the other way.
Ron Swanson
Jered Weaver
James Shields
Corey Kluber
Hisashi Iwakuma
His highest fly ball rate since 2009 has resulted in a slightly elevated HR/9 mark for Jered Weaver, which has caused his ERA to jump to its highest mark since that very same year. It will be interesting to follow along and see when his BABIP and HR/FB rate suppression skills start to deteriorate. When that happens, his LOB% is going to drop. For now, he remains here as we wait for the bomb to explode.
Curiously, James Shields has dropped his change-up usage, which would explain why his SwStk% is sitting at a career low. Of course, the change-up itself is generating a SwStk% the lowest it ever has. But with the number of innings he throws and excellent control, he’s still one of the top AL options.
I should have pushed Corey Kluber into the top tier just to see what kind of reaction I would receive. Would you approve? I certainly wouldn’t argue if I saw him appear there on someone else’s list.
Too late? Probably. But better late than never to move Hisashi Iwakuma up a tier. Wishing for more strikeouts is just nit-picking. When you induce nearly 50% grounders and walk less than a batter per game, your ERA and WHIP contributions are going to be plenty good enough to offset the averageish strikeout rate.
Chris Traeger/Donna Meagle
Anibal Sanchez
Alex Cobb
Hiroki Kuroda
Justin Verlander
R.A. Dickey
C.J. Wilson
Sonny Gray
Jon Lester
Scott Kazmir
Jeff Samardzija
It’s a merging of tiers!
Hiroki Kuroda isn’t done yet. He posted a mid-3.00 ERA in both June and July, which was hidden by a 5.28 April mark and 4.00 May. His strikeout rate is down a notch, but it has primarily been a surprisingly low LOB% that has hurt him this year.
Justin Verlander was dropped a tier for all of two seconds, and then I decided to merge the two tiers together. He has a 2.40 ERA in August! His velocity remains down and you have to wonder if he has never fully recovered from his offseason core surgery.
I took a lot of flack in recent months for my aggressive ranking of R.A. Dickey. I finally gave in and dropped him a tier, but he was still too high for many. He posted a 3.07 ERA in July, which followed a 3.55 mark in May and 4.11 June. His season ERA is being clouded by a 5.09 April, but he’s been just as I expected since.
After a 5.40 ERA in June, Sonny Gray posted a 1.03 mark in July, but his SIERA remains significantly above his ERA. None of his luck metrics are so out of whack to automatically assume they will regress toward the league average. But, given his limited track record, the smart money says his ERA should head north.
I strongly considered pushing Jon Lester up a tier, but I just cannot wrap my head around his skills surge. Just looking at his strike percentage and strike type percentages, they simply do not support such splendid strikeout and walk rates. So here he stays.
Andy Dwyer
Rick Porcello
Jose Quintana
Garrett Richards
Dallas Keuchel
Brandon McCarthy
The lack of a track record and other question marks keep Garrett Richards and Dallas Keuchel down here, though recall that they had recently been promoted in a previous tier update. I can’t believe that Richards’ walk rate is sustainable though given his poor F-Strike% and below average overall strike rate.
Jean-Ralphio
Yordano Ventura
Drew Smyly
Wei-Yin Chen
Chris Archer
Drew Hutchison
Collin McHugh
Marcus Stroman
Trevor Bauer
Jake Odorizzi
Kevin Gausman
James Paxton
Matt Shoemaker
Most of these guys are youngsters with high upsides, but innings is a serious concern. Given the same projected innings as some of the above names, they might very well accompany them in those tiers.
After an atrocious April that saw him post a 6.85 ERA, Jake Odorizzi’s luck turned, and he has posted marks below 4.00 in each month since. I’m still somewhat pessimistic about his future though and his ability to maintain a strong strikeout rate. None of his individual pitches have generated a SwStk% of more than 13.8%, which is strange given the fact that he’s struck out well over a batter per inning.
I don’t know what has happened to Kevin Gausman. Where’d the strikeouts go? The problem has been his four-seam fastball. Despite averaging 95.1 mph, it has generated a measly SwStk% of just 4.2%. Yet, he has thrown it nearly 70% of the time! Unless that improves, he’s going to have to start throwing his secondary pitches more often.
Leslie Knope
Clay Buchholz
Mark Buehrle
Jason Vargas
Phil Hughes
Ricky Nolasco
Bud Norris
Chris Tillman
Tommy Milone
Roenis Elias
Danny Duffy
Kyle Gibson
Hector Santiago
I was once a fan of Danny Duffy and on the surface, it would appear that the breakout is happening right before our eyes. But, it’s really not. His 4.27 SIERA is nearly two runs higher than his 2.39 ERA, driven by an almost league leading .233 BABIP, a LOB% above 80%, and a suppressed HR/FB rate. His control has improved, but his strikeouts have taken a dive as he hasn’t generated the swings and misses he usually does.
Perd Hapley
Miguel Gonzalez
John Danks
Scott Feldman
Brad Peacock
Nick Tepesch
Yuck. Little upside and ratio killing potential. This is when you go middle reliever instead of starter.
The Jerry/Gary/Larry Gergich Injury Tier
Mike Podhorzer is the founder of ProjectingX IQ, an advanced fantasy baseball analytics platform that transforms projection data and in-season performance signals into actionable intelligence. He is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
100% approve of Kluber in top tier.
Not sure I understand how Kluber ISN’T in tier 1. Or at the very least, the top guy in tier 2.
You wanted to put him in tier 1 just to see what kind of reaction you would receive? I think the reaction is from NOT putting Kluber in tier 1.
dont understand the love for weaver
Honestly, I’ve never understood the lack of love for Weaver. Yes, things always look worse for him when you go underneath the hood of his production, but that seems to always be the case, so at some point we have to accept that he’s a bit of an anomaly. Maybe this article gives him a bit too much love, but he’s typically underrated/overlooked.
Hey Mike,
Thanks for the write up. To me, Stroman- (ERA/FIP/xFIP = 3.49/2.99/3.37, 7.9 k/9 rate) seems a little low to me. Are innings concerns part of the thought process behind the ranking? On a per-inning basis, I have to think he’s clearly superior to guys like McHugh, Chen, even McCarthy.
Yup, innings def plays a role. Plus, Stroman is a rookie and his MLB performance remains a rather small sample. But he’s obviously been good so far.
Innings for Stroman really shouldnt be too much of an issue, he pitched 120 last year, and I wouldnt be surprised if he had pitching another 30 in extended spring training during his 50 game suspension. Stroman really should have no issue finishing all of his starts.
I think fewer people would approve of Kluber where you have him ranked now, actually, as opposed to putting him in the tier above. I’m actually a little appalled he’s below Weaver.
Hutchison seems a bit high.
My reaction to Kluber not being in the top tier…’well that’s stupid.’
What tier is Hammel?
The only pitcher in the top tier with a significantly better xFIP than Kluber is God Felix. I don’t understand the justification for keeping Kluber out of the top tier.
By xFIP, Kluber is 4th in the AL.
By WAR, Kluber is 3rd in the AL.
By SIERA, Kluber is 5th in the AL.
How is this guy not in the top tier?
Track record is the only thing that comes to mind.
We might have something to do with it.
Don’t understand why Weaver keeps getting a pass…and a bump even. His FIP/XFIP have been consistently higher than his ERA all year, his K rate is an average to below average 7 per 9, his HR rate is over 1. If he didn’t have a BABIP of .260, it’s very likely his ERA would be over 4. Why is he just on the cusp of being in the first tier and Kluber behind him when everything about Kluber screams he is a better pitcher at this stage in their respective careers?
When I moved Kluber, I didn’t rerank within the tier. Anyway, Weaver has always beaten his expected ERA metrics, and there’s therefore little reason to think he won’t continue to for the foreseeable future.
I was just about to post that his era has been lower than his xFIP etc for years. Agian, this is a bit of an area where xFIP etc don’t do justice to some pitchers who actually do have some ability to have low babips and fewer home runs than expected. Weaver has historically had high IFFB%. This and his high flyball % in general has always kept his babip low. He is aided by his home park but he has had a low hr/fb% on the road as well, not as low as at home.
There’s obvious slippage though. His IFFB% is fairly average this year. The homer rate is up. He’s closer to the edge.
I’d like to see Tony Blengino do a take on Duffy’s ability to limit hard contact. One thing I note is his high IFFB%, 6th in baseball among all with 100+ innings. In Chris Young territory. That and the high flyball rate in general keeps the babip down, a la Young, and why he like Young is an xFIP outlier. He gives up flyballs but a lot never reach the outfield. He’s likely closer to his FIP than xFIP. And I can’t help but like his highest for a lefty average velocity. Right around David Price territory. It looks like he isn’t using his change as much this year. I don’t know his rates per pitch but that may be what’s tamping down his swinging strike rate and K rate.
Another with a high IFFB% is Kyle Gibson. What a great combo with the high groundball rate. The K rate is out of the ’50s but high pop-ups, grounders and low walks, the lack of K’s isn’t killing him.
All good points but Duffy has posted similar batted bal distributions previously and still sported BABIP marks over .300. It’s reasonable to think that with neutral luck, he should be below .300, but there’s still a point at which it’s too low to sustain. Nobody had a true talent BABIP of .233.
Yeah, that’s freaky low.
Keuchel and McCarthy over Stroman and Ventura? Yikes.
It’s 4 months into the season and you’re still undervaluing this year’s numbers. Do you base this straight off ROS projections?
Kuroda is a tier above Richards. It’s just one example of many absurd rankings.
It would be interesting to look after the season to see how accurate outrgripes have been this season. Maybe we overvalue this year’s numbers compared to the full body of work, but I’m certain you don’t take them into account enough.
Kuroda has a long track record of MLB performance. 4 months of this season is just another small data point. Richards has all of 4 months of pitching like a top starter. I believe that fantasy owners significantly overweigh current season ERA.
then what about Richards 3.19 xFIP, 3.22 SIERA, 11.2% SwStr and 50.5% GB compared to 3.76, 3.85, 9.7 and 47.4 to Kuroda…..?
In the case of someone like David Price when his ERA was out of whack from his skill-set earlier in the season, how do you make a trade for someone like that as a “buy-low?” Obviously, as the buyer you have (or at least thing you have) reason to believe he’s much better than he’s performed to date, however, how do you convince another owner who is fairly knowledgeable to part with such a player? I find doing the sales job every year to be the hardest part rather than predicting future results.
Personally I don’t do sales jobs. I simply make an offer and assume the owner is capable enough to check the stats and the context of his team to make a decision. But given Price’s start, you had to assume he could have been acquired for less than the price of an elite starter, with the expectation he’d perform like one the rest of the way.
Our gripes*
I can’t understand your justification for Lester’s low ranking. Lester’s HR/9 is similar to what it was in 2010 and 2008, his K/9 is only the third highest he’s posted in his career, his BABIP and LOB% are right at career norms, so the only outliers are his BB/9 and GB% as both are well below career marks. You say that you don’t see any skill improvements that would make you believe that this is a sustainable level of production, and I can get behind that, but did you look at his pitch data from the player page?
From the pitch data, his FB% is up from where it was the last three years. The only time he’s used his cutter this much was in 2010 (25.1% in 2010, 24.9% this year) and his change up is being used at a meager 3.4% while between 2010-2013 he used it on average over 10% of the time. So maybe the skills aren’t changing but his pitch usage is dramatically different. The results from the pitches may be less indicative of a skills change and may be more results driven, but he’s obviously doing something different this year vs the last two.
Even with skepticism, there’s no excuse to keep Lester under tier 2 considering that his ROS projections have him beating everyone else in that tier.
I agree with this, there’s no one in tier two I would rather have than Lester.
One good reason to bump Lester up a tier is that he is now playing for a better team in a more pitcher-friendly ballpark. These factors argue that his numbers should improve.
CJ Wilson. Falling like a stone.
James Shields in tier 2? No.
I suppose this is why you get paid the big bucks for your baseball knowledge and I do not. I see a guy in tier 6 that has a better FIP than the number 1 ranked pitcher on the list and just shrug.
Phil Hughes could use a bump