Archive for Head to Head

Episode 156

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is now live!

Eno Sarris and Nicholas Minnix discuss Byron Buxton; Jay Bruce; Josh Hamilton; Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr; Alex Rodriguez; Rusney Castillo; Mike Minor; Chris Capuano (by request); C.J. Wilson; and a rundown of injured players in the news.

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions so that we may answer them on our next episode.

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It’s been about a month since the All-Star break, so our leaderboard splits can allow me to look at a pitcher over the last month and compare them to their first half numbers. Yes, arbitrary endpoints. But! Strikeout rate stabilizes in about a month, so at least it’s not the worst arbitrary endpoints ever chosen.

I took a look at the pitching mixes for qualified pitchers over the last month, and then compared those mixes to the first half. Let’s highlight the biggest movers in the major pitch types, starting with sliders today.

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Perhaps, more accurately, Wilson Ramos’ brand of power is returning.

The Washington Nationals’ backstop has slashed .333/.347/.563, with three home runs and two doubles for a .229 ISO, in 49 plate appearances this month. Prior to August, he’d hit three home runs and eight doubles for a .094 ISO in 196 PAs.

Ramos was apparently wondering about his theretofore shortcomings by the end of July. Fantasy baseball players, like Nats manager Matt Williams, probably did less of that, considering that they could’ve had some expectation of loss following the catcher’s hamate bone surgery that forced him to miss five weeks at the start of this season. Read the rest of this entry »

If you’re a returning customer to the DLWW, then you know the drill: we’re here to talk about the barnacles that crawl at the bottom of the ship’s keel, the biofouling whose consideration is merited, by and large, by the dearth of available options in the deepest of formats. Such are the circumstances that invite us to take a look at whether the following two hurlers offer any SP help in NL-only leagues.
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Yesterday, I used my updated xK% formula to identify several pitchers who potentially have some strikeout rate upside. Today I will check on with the pitchers on the other side of the list — those whose xK% marks are most below their actual strikeout rates. These are some of the more interesting names.

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The MASH Report is little low on content today and the same will be true for Thursday. I will release a full PAIN and HURT reports on Friday when I get some extra time (kids are finally back in school).

• Gerrit Cole is expected to come off the DL on Wednesday.

• Yonder Alonso is done for the season, he is droppable in all redraft leagues.

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For the season, Ian Kinsler has played pretty well. He’s the No. 6 second baseman in standard fantasy formats and, on the surface, he’s having a pretty typical Ian Kinsler season. His .732 on-base plus slugging is pretty much in line with the .753 OPS he averaged in his last two seasons with the Rangers. He’s got 11 homers so far, following 13 last year and 19 in 2012. He’s showed better efficiency on the basepaths, improving last year’s 15-for-26 mark in stolen-base attempts to an impressive 12-for-15.

However, a look at his plate discipline numbers suggests something amiss with Kinsler. His strikeout rate is great, as always, as his 10.7% K-rate is a notch better than his 11.7% career rate. However, the 32-year-old has suddenly stopped taking walks, with an alarming 4.0% BB-rate — miles away from his career 9.1% mark. In fact, Kinsler’s worst single-season walk rate coming into 2014 was 8.2% two years ago.

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This week’s Change is about a missing changeup. Mike Minor’s changeup, to be specific. It’s half the pitch it used to be, and as a lefty facing many righties, that’s a big problem. Sure, the curve/cutter combo could be enough for Minor to continue being a major league starter, but as he’s in the midst of a bout of homeritis (that has plagued him on and off in his career), it’s worth asking about that changeup in the context of his current results.

Is it the change that changed how we feel about Mike Minor?

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It’s been a while, so it’s time to take another gander at starting pitcher xK% marks using my updated formula and compare those to actual strikeout rates. While strikeout rates do stabilize relatively quickly, there is still luck tied to sequencing that the formula attempts to strip away. These are the more interesting names that xK% suggests could enjoy a strikeout rate improvement the rest of the way.

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Episode 155

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is now live!

RotoGraphs streaming guru Brandon Warne joins Nicholas Minnix to discuss, among other things, Lorenzo Cain’s potentially diminishing PT; Joc Pederson and Alex Guerrero; Carlos Martinez and Shelby Miller; Archie Bradley; Dan Straily; Trevor Rosenthal; Greg Holland; Daniel Norris; Avisail Garcia; Michael Cuddyer; Gerrit Cole; Wil Myers; David Wright; and, of course, this week’s two-turn pitchers of interest.

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions so that we may answer them on our next episode. Read the rest of this entry »