Archive for First Base

What’s the smallest number of plate appearances a player can have before he becomes a bust? There’s no handy algorithm for busts, no simple test like 0-for-X where as long as X > 15, the player is a bust. It’s a pretty informal, gut level feeling based on everything from expectations to the level of competition the player has failed against. Mat Gamel hasn’t yet reached 200 PAs in the major leagues, but I’ve seen less support for him than for most prospects-on-the-precipice, even those who have an actual track record of failure, which strikes me as odd.  Read the rest of this entry »

The Mets are bringing the fences in at Citi Field and that sound you heard when the announcement was made several months ago was the champagne corks going off in the hitters’ households, as well as their keeper league fantasy owners. Ike Davis is certainly to be one of the primary beneficiaries of the change. With Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols‘ departure to the other league this off-season, the National League first base crop is looking mighty thing. That gives Davis the opportunity to actually be the second most valuable at the position, behind Joey Votto. Let’s see what he may do.

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For the past year-plus, Kendrys Morales has been an expert in worst case scenarios. Injure yourself in a walkoff celebration, miss a full year in the aftermath, and see your team promote a promising young stud and acquire the best player in the league — both at your position — and you can come to define the term.

Are things looking up now? Teammates like Peter Bourjos raved at the power Morales showed in his first live batting practice in over a year on Monday. What if he gets it together? What might a best-case scenario for the 28-year-old switch-hitting Cuban first baseman look like? How could things break just right for him?

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As Eno Sarris alluded to it yesterday, but the defections of Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder to the American League have left behind an ugly scene at first base in the Senior Circuit. Joey Votto is clearly the best player at the position in the National League now, and the gap between him and the second best first baseman might be bigger than the gap between the number one and two players at any other position. With Ryan Braun likely to miss the first third of the season, the decision for first overall pick in NL-only leagues is down to Votto and Matt Kemp.

The second best fantasy first baseman in the National League is up for debate, though I only see two realistic candidates: Lance Berkman and Mike Morse. Ryan Howard would certainly be in that mix if we knew he was going to be in the lineup on Opening Day (we don’t), and as much as I like Freddie Freeman and (particularly) Ike Davis, they’re a notch below those those guys at the moment. Paul Goldschmidt, Michael Cuddyer, Todd Helton, Yonder Alonso, and Lucas Duda are below those guys, and then it really starts to get ugly.

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Here at FanGraphs, we are doing our best to make sure we publish as many articles about Prince Fielder’s move to the Motor City as possible. We want to ensure that there is absolutely no temptation to go anywhere else to find an angle that we missed (because we couldn’t have missed an angle, we covered them all!). So to continue on with the behind the scenes look at my projections, it is only fitting that Fielder is the next man in the spotlight.

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Prince Fielder. Dude is big and powerful and it’s not surprising that the Tigers’ signing of the younger Fielder made a large splash in the wading pool that is the American League Central right now. The splash actually covered much of the first round of next year’s fantasy drafts and impacted leagues in three key ways. Let’s enumerate.

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Carlos Pena is a Tampa Bay Ray again. While it’s easy for fantasy owners to reminisce about the 116 home runs Pena hit between 2007-2009, Pena’s 2010 was the worst offensive showing on his career. After re-establishing some of his value in Chicago this past season, Pena will return to the Trop in 2012. Though Pena has experienced success there before, the park is tougher on lefties than Wrigley Field. At age 34 (in May), will Pena continue to be a useful fantasy option — or will the Trop do him in once again?

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The likelihood of the Texas Rangers signing Prince Fielder grew even slimmer on Friday when the team opted to take a cheaper route and sign Brad Hawpe to a minor league league deal.  Hawpe, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery, also received an invite to spring training and, if he makes the cut, is expected to provide insurance for incumbent first baseman Mitch Moreland, who is currently recovering from off season wrist surgery.  Now the question remains…will Hawpe have any fantasy value in 2012?

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Today I continue with my projections and have decided to go with the sophomore Diamondbacks first baseman, Paul Goldschmidt. Although the excitement hasn’t truly begun yet, I could already imagine all the preview magazines hyping him as a sleeper, pushing him up draft boards. He is currently being drafted 137th overall on Mock Draft Central and 11th among first basemen.

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Manny Ramirez is looking for a team, the Rays were looking for a designated hitter, could the two put aside the unpleasantness that was the 2011 season and work things out? Surely the sheer amount of unsold merchandise from last year had to be an incentive to let bygones be bygones — and to let Manny be Manny — down by Tampa Bay, no?

No. It was never going to happen, and the Rays confirmed that it wouldn’t happen by signing former Oriole Luke Scott to a one-year deal on Wednesday with a club option for 2013. Scott isn’t a bad first baseman and could see time there with the Rays, but it’s fair to assume that he’ll get a large share of his starts as the DH, a role he had in Baltimore before the arrival of Vlad Guerrero. Read the rest of this entry »