Scorched Earth: NL-Only First Baseman
As Eno Sarris alluded to it yesterday, but the defections of Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder to the American League have left behind an ugly scene at first base in the Senior Circuit. Joey Votto is clearly the best player at the position in the National League now, and the gap between him and the second best first baseman might be bigger than the gap between the number one and two players at any other position. With Ryan Braun likely to miss the first third of the season, the decision for first overall pick in NL-only leagues is down to Votto and Matt Kemp.
The second best fantasy first baseman in the National League is up for debate, though I only see two realistic candidates: Lance Berkman and Mike Morse. Ryan Howard would certainly be in that mix if we knew he was going to be in the lineup on Opening Day (we don’t), and as much as I like Freddie Freeman and (particularly) Ike Davis, they’re a notch below those those guys at the moment. Paul Goldschmidt, Michael Cuddyer, Todd Helton, Yonder Alonso, and Lucas Duda are below those guys, and then it really starts to get ugly.
Let’s take a second to explain why Berkman and Morse each deserve to be considered the second best fantasy first baseman in the NL…
Berkman | Fans: .284/.394/.487, 24 HR, 107 RBI, 87 R, 2 SB
Fat Elvis resurrected his career last year while playing the outfield in spacious Busch Stadium of all places. Berkman’s .301/.412/.547 overall batting line is a combination of an insanely hot start (.406/.467/.781 in his first 107 PA) and an excellent but not otherworldly finish (.276/.400/.490 in his final 480 PA), and his power production in particular tailed off…
The only significant concern here is age and injury. He’ll turn 36 one week from today and has a pretty recent history of knee problems, though he is moving to the less demanding position. I think the fan projection is a very reasonable approximation of what he’s capable of doing right now, and as long as he stays on the field, Puma should put up similar fantasy numbers: solid batting average, 20+ homers, and 90+ rib-eye steaks.
Morse | Fans: .282/.343/.479, 26 HR, 95 RBI, 82 R, 2 SB
At this time last year, Morse was basically in the exact opposite situation as Berkman. We wondering if the long-time Astro would be able to rebound while wondering if the long-time Quad-A guy could keep it up. Morse proved that his 2010 breakout was legit last season, hitting .303/.360/.550 with 31 homers, more than his career output coming into the season (21 HR). It took him some time to get going (.235/.269/.318 in his first 93 PA), but he caught fire in mid-May and was excellent the rest of the way (.316/.378/.595 in his final 482 PA)…
Morse’s batted ball profile didn’t change all that much from 2010 or from his career averages for that matter, so there aren’t any significant red flags with his .344 BABIP. It might come down because that’s what these things do, but there’s no glaring reason why we would expect it to crater next season.
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Although he’s not all that young in baseball years (30 in March), Morse is six years younger than Berkman and he plays in a better home park. Nationals Park is perfectly neutral in terms of homers for right-handed batters according to StatCorner (100 Park Factor) while Busch has sub-85 HR Park Factors for both righties and lefties (Berkman being a switch-hitter, of course). It’s not that Morse plays in a great hitter’s park, it’s that Puma plays in a pitcher’s haven. That should factor into the equation.
I do think Carlos Beltran will mitigate the loss of Pujols in the sense that he could replicate, if not exceed Albert’s .366 OBP from a year ago. I’m confident that the Cardinals will get plenty of men on base for Berkman whether he hits third, fourth, or fifth, though second might be an issue. Morse will need Ryan Zimmerman to stay healthy to get some RBI love, and a bounceback year from Jayson Werth would help as well. I’m leaning towards Morse at the second best fantasy first baseman in the NL because I feel that Berkman’s year had a dead cat bounce feel to it, that last hurrah so to speak. You’re welcome to feel differently, so please take part in the poll below.
Click here to submit your fan projections: Berkman and Morse.
Mike writes about the Yankees at River Ave. Blues and baseball in general at CBS Sports.
Nice outlay of the averages. Can we see a cumulative frequency graph of their home runs or extra base hits?
I voted Morse, but I’d give Ike Davis an option in the poll. If he’s healthy. In the counting categories Davis might be hurt by his team and park though.
Keep in mind, Davis will have a terrible supporting cast IF he can get healthy. Could he be the 2nd best, NL-only fantasy 1b? Sure. Should we expect that? Absolutely not.
Not necessarily. The Mets had an above average offense in 2012 overall, and even in second half after Beltran was traded, Davis was out the whole time, and Reyes was merely solid rather than spectacular (.784 OPS vs. .926 in the first half) and played in only 46 games, they scored the 4th most runs in the NL (12th in baseball). Plus now that the walls are coming in, they figure to get at least a small boost in overall offense. I wouldn’t expect them to be a Top 10 offense, but neither would I figure they’ll be bottom 10. Wright and Duda in particular should keep Davis’s counting numbers looking respectable compared to his batting line.
In 2011*
Idk why but i reallyyyyy believe in Ike Davis
In the end of the year, it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see Davis as the 2nd best 1bman, and should be included in the discussion. However, preseason, it’s hard to project him because he missed so much of last year, and his hot start was obviously not sustainable through a whole year.
What I think should be taken from this write-up is that there really is no sure thing at first base outside of Votto in NL onlys. Personally, I’d rather roll with with a guy like Ike. Hopefully his hot start from last year was real. The fences are being moved in, so the real worry is the team around him, I think.
IKE 2012!
number me among the ike davis believers.
also, fwiw, while the author correctly notes we don’t know if howard will be ready by opening day, he’s on the normal recovery path for achilles surgery. the major concern isn’t missed time necessarily but lack of leg strength (obviously impt for power) early in the year.
Why is it so hard to believe Ike can sustain something around a .300/.380/.540 line? It’s not like he was hitting .350/.420/.600 when he went down.
Maybe the batting average comes down a little, maybe not. He cut his K rate early on last year. ISO was in line with what he did in the minors. I suppose his .344 BABIP was a little high, but nothing crazy. He posted a .321 mark as a rookie.
Minor nitpick, but Morse was never to my knowledge an Astro. He played for the Astros of the AL, the Mariners.
It’s a poorly written sentence, but it does not say what you think it says.
Freeman’s 2011 campaign (as a 21 year old) was superior (albeit by slim margins) to Davis’s 2010 (as a 23 year old). Coming off a pretty significant injury, not sure how Davis can clearly rank above Freeman, hot start or not.
lol, you mean the season where Ike produced 3.5 WAR in 601 PA compared to Freeman’s 1 WAR in 635 PA?
Correct me if I am wrong but isn’t Morse projected to be in the Nationals OF while Adam LaRoche gets most of the 1B AB’s? I know he is a 1B in spirit but, technically, he really doesn’t fit in this discussion until we see where he actually plays in 2012.
Brandon Belt, naturally.