Archive for First Base

This could be the end of the line for Justin Morneau. Morneau, who suffered from a concussion during the 2010 season, was shut down early last season after experiencing recurring symptoms. When healthy, Morneau has been one of the top fantasy performers at first base. But he’s missed so many games recently, that he’s become one of the most questionable picks in fantasy leagues. Unless he can overcome his injury, Morneau may not be worth the risk this season.
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The Nationals spent a good portion of the offseason trying to woo Prince Fielder to the nation’s capitol even though they already had a pretty good first baseman in place. That first baseman is Mike Morse, not the $16M man Adam LaRoche. LaRoche missed all but 43 games of 2012 due to a torn labrum and rotator cuff in his left shoulder, an injury that completely sabotaged him at the plate (.258 wOBA in 177 PA) during his first year in Washington.

The 32-year-old LaRoche is now close to nine months out from surgery and working his way back in Spring Training. He told Mark Zuckerman that swinging the bat is not a problem (though he has yet to face live pitching), but he still hasn’t cut it loose when throwing. Since Morse can play the outfield, the Nats will have no problem fitting both men in the lineup if they make it through camp healthy and deserving of regular playing time.

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Eric Hosmer is a trendy fantasy pick this spring, and for good reason. The Royals first baseman batted .293/.334/.465 during his age-21 season, providing decent power (19 homers) and uncommon speed (11 steals) for a guy at the low end of the defensive spectrum. Hosmer’s youth, contact ability, athleticism and promise of more pop from his 6-foot-4, 230 frame have caused him to shoot up the draft board, placing eighth among first basemen and just outside the top 50 overall in MockDraftCentral’s latest ADP Report.

Hosmer could bust out in 2012 — the fans are betting on it, projecting a .299/.359/.501 line, 25 homers and double-digit steals. But for Hosmer to progress from good young hitter to true fantasy stud, he’ll need to hone his strike-zone discipline. Specifically, he needs a cure for a serious case of hack-itis against the heat and sliders/cutters.

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We can forgive Bryan LaHair if he’s a little confused as to what his status is as the Cubs prepare for Spring Training.

The expectation was that the Cubs would end up with one of the big three first baseman in free agency, but Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, and Carlos Pena all found their way to the American League rather than to Wrigley Field, so that’s good news for LaHair. The Cubs then turned around and traded for Anthony Rizzo, a younger version of LaHair who clearly has the First Baseman of the Future look about him, so that’s bad. The Cubs gave LaHair some reps in the outfield last year, giving him a wider range of places to play instead of just first base, so that’s good. Unfortunately, the Cubs haven’t traded Alfonso Soriano yet and signed David DeJesus to fill Kosuke Fukudome’s old spot, so that’s bad. Read the rest of this entry »

First base is the most productive position in fantasy, whether you prefer traditional 5×5 scoring or the linear weights points scoring in ottoneu leagues. Late round first basemen like the two fellas we’re going to talk about today figure to be as productive as many top middle infielders in the power and run production departments, though they’ll probably lag in batting average and almost certainly will in stolen bases. Value is value though.

Lucas Duda of the Mets and Justin Smoak of the Mariners come from very, very different backgrounds. Duda was an unheralded seventh round pick who never appeared on any kind of top prospect list and had to prove himself each step of the way in the minors. Smoak was the eleventh overall pick in the draft and twice considered one of the 25 best prospects in the game by Baseball America before being the headliner in a trade package for an elite, ace-level pitcher. Despite those differences, they’re expected to produce almost the exact same fantasy value next year according to our Fan Projections…

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By the time you reach the last few rounds of your draft, your remaining options can look pretty scary.  Some people are grabbing middle relievers and potential save vultures, some people are picking up middle infield depth, and some are just stockpiling minor league players hoping that if you throw enough against the wall, something’s bound to stick.  For you, there can be another option and given the fact that we’re so far into the draft, the risk is minimal with a potentially enormous upside.  Laugh if you will, but Baltimore’s Chris Davis can make for an outstanding late round sleeper pick this year.

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Trading highly-touted top prospects is a dangerous game for GMs, even if the return is proven player, because the trade seldom ends up being a fair one. Either the prospect pans out and the receiving team now has a star under team control for the better part of the next decade, or the prospect doesn’t pan out and the sending team has managed to sell a player at the pinnacle of his theoretical value, a point he will never reach in reality, and gotten a major league star for as their prize. Read the rest of this entry »

After trying and failing to sign Carlos Pena earlier this offseason, the Indians satisfied their first base needs with another former Tampa Bay Ray last week: Casey Kotchman. They inked him to a one-year contract worth $3 million with a bunch of incentives, pushing Matt LaPorta aside for the time being.

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The Cubs have had just six regular first baseman since 1989, but they’ll make it seven in 2012. The new Theo Epstein-led regime hopes that the recently acquired Anthony Rizzo will stake a claim to the job for the foreseeable future, but he’s unlikely to be manning the position come Opening Day. That honor figures to go to Bryan LaHair, a 29-year-old journeyman-type with big minor league numbers and 219 big league plate appearances to his credit.

“I don’t believe in four-A players,” said Epstein in December. “Guys who can hit will hit when they’re given a chance. [LaHair] continued to rake in winter ball.”

Epstein wasn’t kidding. LaHair posted a .443 wOBA with 38 homers in Triple-A this year, then put together a .381 wOBA in 28 MLB games late in the season, and then went on to hit .272/.404/.592 with 15 homers in 47 winter ball games after the season. All told, the former 39th round pick of the Mariners hit .313/.403/.633 with 52 doubles and 55 homers in 196 total games in 2011, which is obviously huge production. That’s all well and good, but what does it mean for his fantasy value in 2012?

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The “Free Russ Canzler” movement can turn its attention toward the plight of some other minor league masher buried on the depth chart. Canzler, the 2011 International League MVP, figured to toil at Triple-A Durham again next year after the Tampa Bay Rays signed Luke Scott to DH and Carlos Pena to man first base. But the Cleveland Indians picked him up for cash after Tampa DFA’d Canzler, adding right-handed punch to a lefty-laden club that has tired of former CC Sabathia trade bauble Matt LaPorta’s flailing at first base.

So, Canzler (26 in April) has the chance to free himself from the chains of the “Quad-A” label. Is he up to the task? Maybe. Canzler’s power is impressive, he may well be Cleveland’s best option at first and his versatility will help him make the squad this spring, but putting his minor league numbers in greater context removes some of the sheen from his award-winning slugging.

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