Archive for First Base

FYI: The stats in this post do not include yesterday’s games. It’s late and we haven’t updated yet.

After two games back in the starting lineup, the Cardinals placed Lance Berkman on the DL yesterday with a slightly torn calf muscle. It kept him on the bench for four games last weekend, but Puma re-aggravated the injury running after a foul ball on Wednesday. Our consensus rankings had Berkman as the 12th best fantasy first baseman coming into the season, and he did nothing to make us look foolish by posting a .437 wOBA in 30 plate appearances before hitting the DL.

Here are three potential fill-in first baseman to help you weather the storm while Berkman recovers…

Read the rest of this entry »

The season is barely more than a week old, but let’s quickly take stock of two first baseman headed in opposite directions…

Stock Up: Carlos Pena | Rays | Owned: 74! Yahoo! and 100.0% ESPN

Moving back to Tropicana Field after a one-year stint in Wrigley Field figures to take a bite out of Pena’s numbers over the long haul, but the first week back in the old digs has been a productive one (.536 wOBA in 22 PA). What I like most about Pena’s situation is his new batting order spot, second behind Desmond Jennings and ahead of Evan Longoria, Matt Joyce, and Ben Zobrist. It’s a prime RBI and runs scored spot, where his power and patience will play well. We know Pena won’t hit for average and his platoon split is an issue as well, but if he can’t get back over 100 RBI this season, he might never do it again.

Stock Down: Mike Morse | Nationals | Owned: 94% Yahoo! and 99.4% ESPN

A lat strain kept Morse on the shelf while the rest of the team broke camp, and the diagnosis has only gotten worse. Morse is now in “total shutdown mode” according to GM Mike Rizzo, and he won’t do anything for six weeks. If all goes well, maybe he’s back in the lineup in eight weeks, but I wouldn’t hold my breath. Like oblique strains, lat issues can linger if not properly healed. Adam LaRoche’s job is safe for the foreseeable future, and Morse remains will remain a question mark until June.

When you write a fantasy baseball column that recommends players, your number one priority is accuracy.  You can make all the suggestions you want, but if you’re making bad calls, no one is going to listen to your advice.  And even if you do happen to get one right eventually, there’s always someone out there to tell you that even a blind squirrel eventually finds a nut.  You need to know what you’re talking about.

Read the rest of this entry »

In past years, I have posted 20 bold predictions for the upcoming season. Just because our little RotoGraphs contest among authors only required 10 doesn’t mean I was going to stop there! So here are another 10 bold predictions to ridicule me for, or cause your eyes to open in wonder as to how I could be such a brilliant prognosticator. And before you read on, take another gander at my first set of boldies to refresh your memory.

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s been a long time since Justin Morneau was anything close to a sure fantasy option. 2010 drafters had to decide which Morneau was the real thing, the player who hit .311/.390/.575 with 21 HR in the first half of 2009 or the player who faded badly down the stretch, killing a viable MVP campaign with an .077/.178/.179 September. Those who bought into his potential in 2010 were richly rewarded with princely production — .358/.465/.648 with 11 HR — in exactly half a season of work. Read the rest of this entry »

Now that the 2012 regular season is officially underway (for two teams, anyway), let’s round up some first base news from around the league. Here are my preseason 1B tiers from last week, just in case you missed it.

Mike Carp | Mariners | Owned: 24% Yahoo! and 74.3% ESPN

You might have missed it while you were sleeping last night, but we have our first regular season injury of 2012. The Mariners placed Carp on the DL yesterday with a shoulder sprain, adding Carlos Peguero to the roster in his place. Carp qualified as a 1B this year but was a much better value in the OF, so losing him shouldn’t create any 1B problems for fantasy owners. If it does, you likely have bigger problems in the first place. Peguero, by the way, is not rosterable.

Read the rest of this entry »

Two weeks ago we rolled out or consensus first base rankings, and last week I picked them apart and wrote about some things I didn’t necessarily agree with. The tiers below are my personal rankings, dividing the players into groups based on their approximate fantasy value. These rankings will be updated every month throughout the season.

Tier One
Miguel Cabrera
Albert Pujols
Joey Votto
Adrian Gonzalez
Prince Fielder

These five are the very best of the best, all first round fantasy options expected to produce huge numbers. Miggy’s fractured orbital bone could delay the start of his season, in which case I’d bump him behind Pujols. Either way, you’re going to get massive production.

Read the rest of this entry »

I was involved in a 15-team keeper league auction the other day and after staring at Adam Dunn in my queue for what seemed like and eternity, I finally made a move on him.  It wasn’t until very late in the draft and I had held back some extra cash but when I ended up shelling out $14 for him, I questioned whether or not I overpaid.  Did I not think that Dunn was worth that kind of money so late in an auction or was it simply just a temporary case of buyer’s remorse after strapping myself for cash with another few roster spots left to fill?  Then I remembered my rationale after taking him in the 13th round of the KFFL Baseball Analysis Draft & Experts League and Mike Axisa’s 10 Bold Predictions and mental order was restored.  Dunn is headed for a big rebound this year and if you can get him on the cheap (and yes, $14 for 40 HR certainly qualifies as cheap), then you make that move.

Read the rest of this entry »

Esteemed full-time employee Eno Sarris has been rolling out our consensus position rankings over the last week or so, with first base being published one week ago today. Three of our four experts consider Albert Pujols to be the fantasy’s best option at the position, which is certainly a very reasonable and safe choice. Pujols has been so great for so long that it’s hard to bet against him, but I happen to be in the minority.

Miguel Cabrera is the best fantasy first baseman (and overall player, really) for me. It’s easy to forget that he’s still just 28 years old and right in the prime years of his career. He’s hit fewer than 30 HR just once in his eight full seasons and posted an average lower than .320 just once in the last six seasons. Miggy is also insanely durable (150+ games all eight years) and piles up the RBI and runs scored. I like his chances of remaining super productive in 2012 more than I do Albert’s, who battled some injuries and had his first bout with mortality last year (meaning a .385 wOBA after ten straight years of .400+). I don’t think park effects matter much with elite guys like this, and I do like Cabrera’s surrounding cast more than I like Pujols. There’s nothing wrong with ranking Albert as the best fantasy first baseman, I just happen to disagree.

Read the rest of this entry »

Consensus Ranks: OF, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, and RP and SP.

Tiered Ranks: C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, NL OF, AL SP, NL SP, Holds.

Our consensus ranks may have suffered a bit from positional shenanigans. Sure, you can rank Mike Napoli and Carlos Santana at first base, but why would you ever play them there? Is Billy Butler a first baseman in your league?

When we all ranked a guy, we agreed for the most part — well one of us really likes something about Michael Cuddyer that the rest of us don’t see. And Paul Goldschmidt inspires consternation wherever he goes, so it was no surprise that he wasn’t ranked the same by all of us. But Carlos Lee? Must be something about .270 and 18 homers at first base that tickles Podhorzer’s fancy. Then again, he liked James Loney more than the rest of us too.

Take a look and pick your poison.

Read the rest of this entry »