Archive for First Base

If you’d done nothing in 2012 but read the local papers, you might think that Adrian Gonzalez was among the biggest busts of modern times. Coming off a stellar 2011 Boston debut, his production was down, his Red Sox team was a circus – which he was not immune from after being reportedly caught up in the “text message to Boston ownership” controversy – and he didn’t even end the year with the team. In one of the most shocking trades in baseball history, he was shipped to Los Angeles just a year-and-a-half after the Red Sox gave up Anthony Rizzo, Casey Kelly, & Reymond Fuentes to acquire him and invested seven years & $154 million into retaining him.

While that reaction and Gonzalez’ culpability in the flaming collapse of the 2012 Red Sox are perhaps slightly overblown, it clearly wasn’t the year anyone expected. Gonzalez set full-season career lows in OBP, SLG, wOBA, & wRC+, managing to avoid bottoming out in WAR only because his fielding was so highly graded as compared to his early years in San Diego. Considering that Gonzalez was around the 11^th overall pick on average in ESPN leagues headed into the season, the fact that he ended up only 10^th just among first basemen in Zach Sanders’ end-of-year rankings has to be considered a huge disappointment. Read the rest of this entry »

With the publishing of Zach Sanders’ 2012 first base rankings on Monday, most owners probably had a good idea where everyone was going to fit. Obviously Miguel Cabrera was going to be king of the hill and everyone knew they were going to have a scroll a while to find Eric Hosmer’s name. But quietly holding onto the seventh spot was a guy who didn’t even start the year in the first base discussion: Corey Hart.

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Going into this season, it was obvious that Prince Fielder was leaving a park that was friendly to his lefty power and going to one that was less cozy. The difficulty in using that one fact to predict Fielder’s 2012 power was that he’d play half his games in other parks. So Chad Young and I tried to correctly weight the lefty home run power factors for each of the stadiums he’d see. Our answer was that he’d see a 6.7% reduction in home run production on the road. Combined with a 30% drop at home (118-88), he could expect a 18.65% drop overall.

Edit: Nailed it!

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Continuing with our retrospective of first basemen fantasy performances, it’s time to check out number seven on Zach Sanders’ First Base End of Season Rankings and take a look at the Arizona Diamondbacks’ lumbering slugger, Paul Goldschmidt. Though technically not a rookie due to 156 at-bats in 2011, this was Goldschmidt’s first full season in the bigs. Not only did he meet most expectations, but he actually exceeded quite a few and his end of season value of $16 puts him right on the cusp of elite first baseman status. Read the rest of this entry »

Every season, we fantasy owners could choose to bust our budget for a top first baseman who will contribute handsomely in four categories or spring for a cheaper option, perhaps one we might consider a sleeper. Brandon Belt and John Mayberry were two popular choices for the latter category, but unfortunately, they remained in a slumber all season. Based on Zach Sanders’ magical formula, Belt actually reduced the final value of a fantasy team by a buck, ranking 39th among first basemen, while Mayberry did even more damage, “earning” a strong -$5 (yes, negative), and ranking 46th. So what happened and is there post-sleeper hope for next season?

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Chris Davis was the bane of my fantasy teams for a couple of years. After breaking out in 2008 with 17 home runs in 80 games, he was my ace-in-the-hole of draft/auction day. The results were horrible. Once I finally swore to never pick him up again, he had a comeback season with the Orioles. With such an uneven past, it will be tough to get a read on his potential 2013 season.

The fantasy value of Chris Davis lives of the edge of relevancy because of three traits, a high number strikeouts, good power and a high BABIP. In some seasons, one or more of these traits destroyed his value. In his first season (2008), none were an issue and he thrived. In 2009, the strikeout rate jumped and his batting average plummeted. In 2010, both his power and BABIP dropped. In 2011 his power was down. Finally in 2012, all three aligned again and he had a decent season. I am going to look into each of these three areas and see what benchmarks he needs to reach category for a repeat of 2012.

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Scroll a little more than halfway down Zach Sanders’ End of Season First Base Rankings, and there at number 31 you’ll find Kansas City Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer with a measly $1 value attached. If you stood by Hosmer this past season, you probably think that Zach was a little too generous with that ranking and perhaps that dollar value is a bit much. After all, as far as disastrous seasons go for over-hyped players, this one may not take the cake, but it definitely ranks up there. Read the rest of this entry »

Identifying post-hype sleepers can be one of the best ways to find breakout players during your draft. Post-hype players are typically former prospects that don’t initially live up to expectations. This drives down their value in fantasy leagues the following season, making them excellent late-round targets. Yonder Alonso and Anthony Rizzo don’t fit the bill exactly, as neither player was hyped as a fantasy superstar. But both were considered decent prospects heading into the season, and owners that drafted them may not have been fully satisfied with their performances. Both players did show some promise during their first full year in the majors, and will be looking to build on that during their sophomore season.

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It was largely a forgettable season for Kevin Youkilis in 2012, and certainly forgettable for fantasy owners who expected anything close to his typical performance. He was frequently injured, run out of Boston by a rookie, and ultimately never resembled the Youkilis of old. Looking at his end of season value, Zach Sanders puts him basically at replacement level with a zero dollar value, and ranked 36th overall. Yeeks.

What went wrong? Pretty much everything.

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Going into the season, Davey Johnson, Mike Rizzo, and the rest of the Washington Nationals’ decision makers certainly expected to get strong production from their first basemen and that’s exactly what happened. Nationals’ first basemen combined to hit .285/.355/.547 with 40 HR, 118 RBI, and even a single, solitary stolen base. That .902 OPS was the third highest mark in baseball behind the Tigers — the honorable Prince Fielder presiding — and the Reds pair of Joey Votto and Todd Frazier, though the Nationals were the only team to break the 40 home run barrier. So all went exactly according to plan as Washington changed the old saying around to “first in war, first in peace, first in the NL East.”

Except it wasn’t nearly so simple as that. Read the rest of this entry »