Archive for First Base

There’s not a lot of guesswork about Edwin Encarnacion anymore; we can be relatively certain there’s nothing fluky about his ascension to the second tier of fantasy first basemen, as odd as it may have seemed when it began in late 2011.

Given the depth of the position, perhaps his overall value isn’t all that striking – he returned roughly $18 this year, trailing only Chris Davis and Paul Goldschmidt at the position – but he now appears to be a safe pick.

He also appeared at third base 10 times this season, meaning he’ll be eligible on both corners in many formats next year (more on that during third baseman week, perhaps).
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Billy Butler headed into the 2012 season as a first baseman with moderate power whose greatest fantasy contributions came from his strong batting average and position in the middle of a Major League lineup that would lead to a solid runs batted in total. Butler then finished the 2012 season having enjoyed a breakout year and now suddenly looking like a power hitter reaching his prime years. Unfortunately, Butler failed to follow up his breakout season with a performance that satisfies like a good country breakfast should.

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Putting a finger on Eric Hosmer’s true talent level seems tougher than the over cooked pork crops my mom makes. Hosmer was good his rookie season. Then he was horrible in year two. He started last season off horribly, but then turned his season around. While he seemed to be all over the place, his production change can be focused to a period of an extremely low BABIP

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If your league counts all players that have started once at a position as eligible there, well then Victor Martinez can catch for you next year. And you’re luckier for it. But anyone else that played him at catcher this year was enjoying the last vestiges of V-Mart as a top-five player at any position. And though he provided value with a strange mix of skills, here’s betting he can be valuable again next year, even as a first baseman.

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Amongst the exciting young sluggers in the game, it’s easy to overlook Freddie Freeman. He’s not overly flashy and lacked the benefit of the hype machine while in the minors. However, he’s only 24 years old and was nearly a five-win player in 2013. His .387 wOBA ranked 13th in all of baseball, and he was the third-ranked first baseman in ESPN leagues.

It’s crazy to ponder the fact that Freeman will be 24 years old for the vast majority of the 2014 season, as well, because he’s already been one of the best young first basemen over the last 20 years. Since the strike, only two first basemen have connected with more home runs through their age-24 season than Freeman.

The above chart certainly puts Freeman’s early-career performance into perspective, but it also indicates few first basemen acquire starting roles in their early-20s. Not factoring in position, Freeman has the 28th-most home runs of any player through their age-24 season since the labor strike — which is still impressive, but not nearly as noteworthy as being number three.

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It’s first base week and that means it’s time to continue reviewing my preseason Pod’s Picks series. For a refresher on my original arguments behind a player being undervalued and overvalued, check out Pod’s Picks: First Base.

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The 2013 fantasy baseball season has come to a close, so it is time to look back at the season past and determine which players were the most valuable at each position. This week focuses on first baseman.

The players were ranked based on their 2013 production, using the evaluation system explained and updated on this site some time ago. To keep things manageable and avoid skewing the numbers, players were only considered if they amassed 400 plate appearances over the course of the year. The replacement level was also adjusted to account for players eligible at multiples positions. The valuations are built for $260 budgets and traditional 5×5 roto fantasy leagues, where only one catcher is started.

One important thing to note is the premium (or lack thereof) placed on the position a player occupies in your lineup. For example, while a first baseman may be able to accumulate superior overall numbers, the availability of such production lower in the rankings severely dampers the amount the player was worth.

These rankings are meant to reflect a player’s value should he have occupied this spot in your lineup for the entire year. So, a player who missed time due to injury but put up great numbers during his time on the field would be worth less.

With all this in mind, here are your rankings. Read the rest of this entry »

Last season Albert Pujols was drafted in the mid- to late-first round. Some people expected a bounce-back after a disappointing 2012 season. All they got from him was a dead cat bounce. He ended up as the 352nd-ranked fantasy player according to our end-of-season rankings. Once again, he may look like a rebound/buy low candidate, but his rebound chances are slim.

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The idea of a Fantasy Baseball MVP has been fascinating to me. In baseball’s true award season, many of us (including myself) lament the invocation of the term “value” because the MVP should rightfully be given to each league’s best player.

In fantasy baseball, though, value is paramount. If you drafted Miguel Cabrera or Mike Trout with the first-overall pick, you clearly acquired a stud. However, it didn’t take much skill to determine Cabrera and Trout would be elite fantasy players, and with the first-overall pick, you’re expected to choose the best player in the game. That’s one of the perks of drafting first.

Furthermore, we can objectively determine in fantasy baseball which player performed at the highest level throughout the season. We know Miguel Cabrera accumulated the most points in ESPN leagues. Chris Davis was the best, according to Zach Sanders’ rankings from earlier today.

So, the notion of best isn’t relevant when it comes to the Fantasy Baseball MVP. It truly boils down to value. Which player provided elite production without costing a high-round draft pick in snake drafts or a large stack of cash in auction leagues? Because that’s how championships are won.

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Coming into the 2013 season, first baseman Anthony Rizzo was considered one of the prime breakout candidates in all of baseball. He was only 23 years old on Opening Day, and he compiled a .349 wOBA with 15 home runs a year ago in 368 plate appearances. Furthermore, if one adds his Triple-A home run total from 2012, he actually launched 38 bombs last season, so it’s not difficult to understand what spawned the enthusiasm.

Rizzo wasn’t able to follow through on the bold predictions. He only hit .233/.323/.419 on the season, and despite the solid 23 home runs, he was barely a top-30 first baseman in ESPN leagues. His .325 wOBA ranked 19th among qualified first basemen, behind uninspiring guys like Nick Swisher, James Loney and Justin Smoak.

Thus, two questions quickly push their way to the forefront: (1) what happened in 2013, and (2) what can fantasy owners expect for 2014?

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