What To Make Of Anthony Rizzo
Coming into the 2013 season, first baseman Anthony Rizzo was considered one of the prime breakout candidates in all of baseball. He was only 23 years old on Opening Day, and he compiled a .349 wOBA with 15 home runs a year ago in 368 plate appearances. Furthermore, if one adds his Triple-A home run total from 2012, he actually launched 38 bombs last season, so it’s not difficult to understand what spawned the enthusiasm.
Rizzo wasn’t able to follow through on the bold predictions. He only hit .233/.323/.419 on the season, and despite the solid 23 home runs, he was barely a top-30 first baseman in ESPN leagues. His .325 wOBA ranked 19th among qualified first basemen, behind uninspiring guys like Nick Swisher, James Loney and Justin Smoak.
Thus, two questions quickly push their way to the forefront: (1) what happened in 2013, and (2) what can fantasy owners expect for 2014?
As one would expect, the answers are intimately related. They both center around his inability to handle left-handed pitching. In 2013, Rizzo hit .189/.282/.342 against southpaws and a more robust .252/.342/.454 against righties, and 16 of his 23 home runs came against right-handed pitchers. It’s important to note Rizzo suffered from a .207 BABIP against lefties; however, I’d argue the low BABIP was partially due to increased weak contact, which can be seen by his 15.3% infield fly ball rate against lefties (more than double his 7.3% against righties).
Furthermore, his struggles against left-handed pitching appears to be becoming a trend. Even in his impressive 2012 campaign, Rizzo only posted a .208/.243/.356 slash line against lefties. He continued to crush righties (.386 wOBA) and 11 of his 15 home runs came against righties, which is once again similar to his 2013 story. The difference in performance level between the two years was simply the fact that he demolished righties more in 2012 than he did in 2013 — and perhaps much of that is BABIP-related (.280 BABIP in 2013 and .348 BABIP in 2012).
Some analysts in this space have focused on his increased walk rate, decreased swinging-strike rate and his improved plate discipline. They have argued these are positive signs and could be harbingers for improvement heading into 2014, and they’re obviously correct that those improved metrics should be celebrated. However, until Rizzo proves that he can handle left-handed pitching at the big-league level — something he hasn’t shown in 1000+ plate appearances — his ultimate upside will be extremely limited.
(Side note: The good news is Rizzo has shown an ability to handle southpaws in the minors and he’s only 24 years old, so perhaps this is a skill that will quickly develop. True talent often emerges after an adjustment period. With a sample size over 1000 plate appearances, though, it’s definitely a concern and something that should reasonably be expected to continue in 2014.)
This leads us into the discussion of the 2014 season and what we can expect from the slugging first baseman. Because no matter the struggles against lefties, Rizzo is draftable due to his power — both his power potential and his track record of power — but the question becomes about value.
In answering this question, I want to work under the assumption that Rizzo will continue to have issues against left-handed pitching. I think that’s only fair. Nothing at the big-league level has convinced me this will not continue to be a problem in 2014. Thus, how valuable can Rizzo be if he’s just mashing against righties?
In this case, the most-useful example is Brandon Moss.
Moss served strictly as a platoon player for the Oakland Athletics this year, playing against right-handed pitching and sitting against southpaws. But he absolutely destroyed right-handers all year. He posted a .387 wOBA against righties with 22 doubles, two triples and 26 home runs. Among hitters with at least 400 plate appearances, Moss’s wOBA ranked 14th in baseball against righties and his .284 ISO against righties ranked second (Chris Davis had an otherworldly .411 ISO against righties, by the way).
Moss was truly elite against right-handed pitchers this season, yet he only ranked 13th among first basemen in ESPN leagues. Part of this is due to playing time — he only registered 505 plate appearances — but if we assume that Rizzo is Moss-like against righties and continues to struggle against lefties, it seems his upside isn’t much higher than being a third-tier first baseman. He’ll benefit from playing everyday and racking up a few more counting statistics because of that, but his batting average should also dip accordingly. Give a little, take a little.
Of course, if Anthony Rizzo suddenly hits left-handed pitching like he did in Triple-A in 2011 and 2o12, all bets are off. He would then threaten to become a top-tier first baseman. However, we haven’t seen that in 1000+ plate appearances at the big-league level, and I’m not comfortable with relying on improvement just because he’s young. It seems the best-case scenario for fantasy owners is a Brandon Moss type year, which is certainly valuable, just not overly exciting.
Fortunately, due to his down season, he could represent a bargain on draft day in the lower rounds, but he could receive some helium as a popular sleeper, buy-low guy. In that case, be sure to value accordingly and don’t overpay because his upside should remain limited.
J.P. Breen is a graduate student at the University of Chicago. For analysis on the Brewers and fantasy baseball, you can follow him on Twitter (@JP_Breen).
Weren’t the same arguments made against Goldschmidt heading into this year, i.e., “poised for a breakout but must prove he can handle both righties and lefties”?
Perhaps by some, but he didn’t struggle against righties to the same extent that Rizzo struggles against lefties. Goldschmidt had a .322 wOBA against righties in 2012, prior to his breakout. Rizzo had a .282 wOBA against lefties this year. I’m not convinced those are equivalent.
No, but they were the same arguments made against Justin Smoak.
(.192 vs left, .260 versus right, continues to suck.)
True and goldy’s case may be the exception rather than the rule. Scouts have long agreed his makeup is off the charts, and his improved conditioning led to more stolen bases and a better eye at the plate. Rizzo is 3 years his junior and has the ability and track record to improve against lefties, but it’s probably not a great comp
Rizzo is less than 2 years younger than Goldschmidt. 9/87 vs 8/89.
His performance vs. LHP is concerning but I have serious doubts that he’ll continue to post one of the lowest BABIPs among all qualified hitters going forward which dragged his average and OBP down with it. It might be lower than average but this season it was incredibly low compared to the rest of league.
The argument is based upon the point that Rizzo may not be able to hit lefties. As you said, with a .207 BABIP, although its low, it could be a case of weak contact. But is it, absolutely, the case? Rizzo, against lefties, posted an xBABIP of .266. About a 60 point difference in xBABIP and BABIP is significant enough to conclude he had quite a bit of unluckiness.
And, as you said, some players tend to develop more ability as their skill-set matures. Because Rizzo had a 60 point BABIP to xBABIP difference, has an age curve on his side, and has a precedence of making consistent contact against lefties in AAA, Rizzo’s surface stats should improve rather than stay stagnant.
That’s absolutely a valid point. It’s not 100% guaranteed that his low BABIP against lefties is due to weak contact, but the fact that his well-hit average (an ESPN saber stat) is below average against lefties and his infield fly ball percentage is so high, I think it’s a large part of it.
Sure, but then we are putting a subjective scorer (determining if the ball was well-hit or not) in control of determining something claiming to be “objective.” It is a manner of opinion, then, whether or not Rizzo is hitting lefties according to well-hit-average.
So, in a 12 keeper league, would you keep Rizzo as a final keeper, or a pitcher like Liriano?
It would depend on a lot of different things: how deep is the league, what are the keeper rules, what other options would you have in the draft?
The thing is I see now reason for terrible alarm. If we look at Brandon Moss. he was utterly lost at the plate vs. LHP. He strikes out 44% of the time, can’t draw a walk, and grounds out vs. LHP. Chris Davis also suffer of the same thing.
Rizzo posts no platoon splits in either plate discipline or batted ball data(other than IFFB).
I think Rizzo’s problem is lack of power. He is hitting grounders that he isn’t fast enough to beat out. He is hitting fly balls that don’t leave the park. That leads to a low BABIP and hurts you. We need to see his power take a step forward. He needs that HR/FB% to be at 21%, not 11%.
Would you feel more comfortable with Rizzo or Matt Adams going forward as your 1B of the future?
Really tough question. I’d probably lean toward Matt Adams, but that makes me nervous because there’s a legitimate chance Rizzo figures it out. But for the 2014 fantasy season, I’d feel more comfortable with Adams.
Neither.
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What to make of Rizzo is I feel good for saying I’d rather have Goldy.
If Rizzo repeated his 18.1% HR/FB rate from 2012, he’d have hit 33 HR this season. An extra 10 HR would have pushed his average to near .250. A .248, 33 HR, 81 R, 95 RBI, 6 SB season achieved with a .258 BABIP for an age 23 player would look awfully attractive when ranking players for drafts.
Of course, caveats abound. If he maintains the increased flyball rate (or even further boosts it) from this season, his normalized BABIP may be in the .280 range rather than .300+, so his average upside may only be .270. And there’s obviously no guarantee that his HR/FB rate is 18% again.
All said, I’d have to think that this season represented his floor. Even with only marginal improvements in skills and a similar level of luck he experienced this season would result in a .250ish, 27 HR year. Considering the state of first base, he’s probably worth drafting in round 11 as a CI/U, I’d think.
I traded Carlos Gomez for him. My old 1b was Ike Davis. Lets hope they don’t hang out since it would appear that they are already nearly the same player.
For what it’s worth, through their first 1211 Plate Appearances, virtually the only offensive difference between Jeremy Hermida and Anthony Rizzo is that Hermida had 40 more hits (.334 v. .270 BABIP) and Rizzo has a bit more patience (-2.4% K% +0.7% BB%).
Other differences of note: Hermida was 3 months older and was a poor defender.
Poor defender in LF>Average defender at 1B
Why is Nick Swisher on that list of uninspiring guys? This was the worst he’s been since 2008 and he was still better offensively than Rizzo’s ever been. It will be news when he’s as good as Nick Swisher, who’s been a freaking metronome with the exception of this year.
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Something really interesting when you look at his splits this year is that he actually hit better against lefties at home than righties. The numbers that are really bad are his numbers against lefties on the road. Obviously small sample size caveat applies here, but something interesting to ponder when analyzing Rizzo’s season.
To fly so close to The Colvin-Granderson Vortex is very dangerous Capt Rizzo….
The Brandon Moss comp is perfect. Fantasy owners looking to acquire Rizzo for 2014 should anticipate only using him against RHP. At the right price and with the right roster composition, he’ll be a valuable addition.
J.P Breen or any of you guys: I have Rizzo on 12-team keeper league, I am being offered Kris Bryant would you do that deal? What you guys think?
Rizzo’s xBABIP last season was .314 vs posted .258. My calculation for his xBA using his xBABIP is that his BA should have been .274. So here’s a kid that you can make a case that his 2013 skillset was approximately .274-23-71-80-6. If you believe hittrackeronline, his only 4 ‘just enough’ HR out of 23 was abnormally low also, and could be another bullish sign regarding his power. I think the Steamer projection of .268-31-88-94-7 is a very defensible projection for his 2014. Long story short, I think he’s one of the primary targets for sharps for 2014 given most people will be sour on him.
JP: Twice in your article, you bring up his 1000+ MLB PAs as an indicator that we can’t EXPECT to see improvement from Rizzo against LHBs. But a more useful indicator would be his 356 PAs as a lefty against MLB LHPs. I freely admit, I am not aware of the research on how long it takes for platoon splits to stabilize. But I’m fairly certain that if we are looking for improvement in his ability to handle LHP, we shouldn’t include his 855 PA against RHPs in that analysis.
the bludgeoning of the ball will occur when rizzo decides it will be so. anticipate the propagation of counting stats of force. behold: rizzo rides from the windy city on a pale horse.
and hell will follow.
As one earlier commenter pointed out, Rizzo’s splits need to be split further. At home he hits lefties as well as he hits righties. It’s on the road that he simply can’t hit them at all, and may as well not even bring the bat up to the plate.
He DID hit them in the minors.
I think it’s somewhat psychological with him and wouldn’t be surprised if he had a big year.