Bold prediction season is my favorite sub-season within draft season. Way ahead “we are drafting way too early season” and just barely edging out “prospect ranking season.” The worst sub-season within draft season is “pitchers and catchers reported two days ago and now every news alert is an injury” season. I hate that season.
But bold prediction season is the best. It brings out the absolute best of the baseball world. Everyone is putting a stake in the ground for the players they love. People are being wildly optimistic, because it is spring and it’s getting warmer out and the season hasn’t started yet so anything is possible. It just doesn’t get more fun than this.
In a recent article, I wanted to show the average fastball velocity increase from Spring Training to the regular season. I went to Mike Fast’s classic article, “Spinning Yarn: Do Spring Speeds Matter?” at Baseball Prospectus, and noticed it was 15 years old. In the article, he found a 0.6 mph increase from Spring Training to the regular season. As much as I trust Mike’s work, it’s time for an update. After looking at the numbers, the velocity difference has shrunk to almost zero.
To find the change, I took the available Spring Training fastball velocities from the past three seasons for both sinkers and four-seamers. Then I calculated the average and median differences, along with the standard deviation. Additionally, it seems like relievers are down more than starters (>=50% GS/G in regular season) in Spring Training, so I split them up.
That’s pretty much it, so here are the results.
Fastball Velocity Increase from Spring Training to the Regular Season
Pitch (Role)
Average
Median
SD
1 SD (68% chance)
2 SD (95%)
3 SD (99%)
FF (All)
0.26
0.22
0.94
-0.7 to 1.2
-1.4 to 2.4
-2.0 ti 3.6
FF (SP)
0.08
0.07
0.87
-0.8 to 0.9
-1.6 to 1.9
-2.4 to 2.8
FF (RP)
0.37
0.34
0.96
-0.6 to 1.3
-1.2 to 2.7
-1.8 to 4.0
SI (All)
0.18
0.13
0.89
-0.7 to 1.1
-1.4 to 2.1
-2.1 to 3.2
SI (SP)
0.01
0.01
0.81
-0.8 to 0.8
-1.6 to 1.7
-2.4 to 2.5
SI (RP)
0.29
0.24
0.92
-0.6 to 1.2
-1.3 to 2.4
-1.9 to 3.6
2023 to 2025
The overall increase is cut in half from the original study, with starters seeing almost no increase … on average. All the standard deviations approach 1 mph, so there can be some major differences from one pitcher to the next. I included the velocity ranges for different standard deviations. In the best-case scenarios (3 SD), starters gain about 2.5 mph while relievers are adding 4 mph.
With that knowledge, feel free to navigate our player pages to see who is up and who is down. And for me, it’s back to Mining the News.
Bold can be beautiful. Sometimes it’s downright ugly. In the case of bold fantasy predictions, it’s not in the eye of the beholder, but in the results. Since most bold predictions columns focus deep into the player pool, I decided to approach it from a different angle. Below is a set of prognostications, only for hitters in the top 100 ADP. I’ll cover one per offensive position, though they will not be presented in order of confidence, since I’m mostly confident in all of them. Be sure to let me have it if they’re downright ugly come the end of the season.
No one will ever be able take away Cal Raleigh’s magical season – only six other players and no other catchers have ever socked 60 dingers in a season. He’s a consensus second-round fantasy pick, and no other backstop is within 30 ADP spots of him. Let’s pivot from fantasy to reality: Raleigh is a beast. He rarely takes a day off, makes a quarter of his starts as Seattle’s designated hitter to give his knees a rest, and he could easily crush 40+ bombs again. How can any other catcher even come close? If Raleigh’s 2026 production more closely mirrors 2023-2024 than 2025, then 76-36-90-2-.227 won’t cut the mustard for overall C1. Especially in this new world of impact fantasy catchers who spend time at other positions or more frequently DH (Salvador Perez, Hunter Goodman) or don’t catch at all (Ben Rice). If ever there was a guy to unseat him, why not the guy Raleigh just unseated? His name is William Contreras – the top fantasy catcher in 2024 and 2023.
Contreras is coming off a down year, yet he still earned $20 in 12-team standard roto and was the overall C4, playing with a fracture in his left middle finger for much of the season. Contreras’ 1,949 plate appearances over the last three seasons are the most at the position. From 2023 to 2024, as the no. 1 backstop, he averaged 93 runs, 20 homers, 85 RBIs, 8 stolen bases, and a .284 BA. A similar 5×5 stat line in 2026 should yield another top-25 season, pitchers excluded. Contreras hits the ball hard (92 mph EV, 49% HH), produces an elite batting average at his position (in fact, for any position), and he usually throws in a few bags. With Jackson Chourio and Brice Turang hitting in front of him, and Christian Yelich and Andrew Vaughn behind, who is to say Contreras can’t set new highs in runs and runs batted in? He’s healthy, in his prime (age 28 season), and is ready to earn his crown back from the Big Dumper, assuming Cal sterilizes it first.
It’s possible we have not yet seen the best of Pasquatch. Pasquantino is a popular player and an easy guy to root for. The big guy is friendly, active on social media, and has a love for baseball analytics. He is one of just eight hitters averaging 105 or more RBIs over the last two seasons, and that’s with missing 33 games. He maintained a BB/K over 1.00 in the minors, and though it’s 0.61 in the majors, that is still above big-league average, and he’s a tough guy to punch out (13.5% career strikeout rate). Pasquantino set a career high in homers with 32 last season. Models project a slight regression, around 27, which is a very reasonable expectation. Those doubting 40 is possible would point toward league-average power metrics, such as a 91 average EV, 9% barrel rate, 45% hard-hit rate, and .191 ISO.
Moreover, his bat speed (72.5) is mediocre, and his launch angle of 16.6 degrees over the last two seasons could use a slight increase. Pasquantino’s plate discipline has been slowly waning over these past few years, and with Kauffman Stadium’s outfield walls moving in, Vinnie P might be interested in selling out a bit of contact (85% career) for more power. Kauffman’s dimension shifts are a big deal. The left and right field fences are coming in by 9-10 feet, and the wall heights are reduced by up to 18 inches. There is no debate about more homers being hit there in 2026 than in past seasons. Vinnie P may not be a batting average stalwart like he was in the minors and his rookie season, but that’s ok because the HR/RBI numbers will be epic. I believe the Royals will win the AL Central, and that Pasquantino crushes 40 this year.
Second Base – Nico Hoerner is fantasy’s top second baseman
“Are you trying to tell me a guy who has never hit 10 homers in a season is going to be the top producer at his position?” That’s exactly what I’m telling you. In fact, that’s exactly what happened last season when Brice Turang (who came in with a career-high seven home runs) was the only second baseman to earn $20+ in roto. This one should qualify as the least bold call of all, since the bar for being the overall 2B1 isn’t high. The only others here in the ADP 100 are Turang, Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Ketel Marte, and only a few from the field below Hoerner could even be considered dark horse candidates. Chisholm and Marte have had their share of injury woes, though both are strong candidates. Turang is firmly entrenched in the 2B1 conversation, but what if the home runs (18) and outlier batting average (.288; .262 xBA) aren’t repeated, and the swipes remain in the 20-30 range? This is a fantasy opportunity for Hoerner – an elite contact hitter and base-stealer on a talented veteran-infused lineup to tie it all together with a bow of 16 dingers? A 90-16-66-36-.292 line could earn him the top spot, and they’re all numbers he’s produced before, sans the homers.
The 30/30 Club isn’t as exclusive as it once was. No hitters accomplished the feat between 2013 and 2017. Since then, there have been two (2018), two (2019), one (2021 – Cedric Mullins), none in 2022, four (2023), and three (2024). In 2025, there were seven: José Ramírez, Julio Rodriguez, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, Corbin Carroll and Pete Crow-Armstrong. Bobby Witt Jr. fell short (22/38), but accomplished the feat in 2023 and 2024. Gunnar Henderson and Zach Neto can join the club in 2026. Henderson only missed six games last season, but played through left shoulder impingement and inflammation for most of the year. He still stole 30 bases on 35 attempts and hit 17 home runs. In the previous season, Henderson crushed 37 bombs. His average exit velocity (92.1 mph), bat speed (75.3 mph) and hard-hit rate (49.2%) all ranked in the top 15% of hitters last season.
With Pete Alonso, Taylor Ward, and a loaded, improving offense around him, Henderson is very capable of 30/30 and a run at the AL MVP award. Neto produced 23/30 in his first full season (602 PA, 2024), and followed up with 26/26 in just 554 plate appearances in 2025. His average exit velocity (91 mph) and hard-hit rate (46.6%) were both well above average, and he nearly doubled his barrel rate from 2024 (8.8%) to 2025 (14%). The key for Neto to get there is, of course, health. Though not just his own, but that of veteran Mike Trout, whose presence in the lineup always has a positive impact on those around him. Despite his second/third-round ADP, Neto is still somewhat underrated and should make a name for himself on the national stage this year. Henderson and Neto join the 30/30 Club this season!
There have only been two $60+ seasons, per our Player Rater – Shohei Ohtani’s 50/50 season from 2024 and Ronald Acuña Jr.’s in 2023. That season, Acuña stayed healthy, amassed 735 plate appearances and produced an insane line: 149 R, 41 HR, 106 RBI, 73 SB and a .337 average. If anyone can beat out Ohtani, Judge or Witt for fantasy’s top earner this season, it’s Acuña. I’m buying in on another epic season as the leadoff man for a stacked Atlanta Braves offense in his age-28 season. Last season, he slashed .290/.417/.518, hit 21 dingers in 412 PAs, and flaunted healthy power metrics – 92.7 mph EV, 15.7% BRL, 52.5% HH. He kept his running to a minimum (nine swipes on 10 attempts) last season, but ran wild in winter ball (11 SB in 71 PA), and stole another two in his first four spring training games. Acuña is as healthy as he’s been since that epic 2023 season and is hungry for a repeat. With his ability for elite production across all five standard roto categories, and the fact that Ohtani isn’t projected to run wild like in 2024 (63 attempts), Acuña will edge out the field and be the king of fantasy once again.
Bonus: Kyle Tucker leads the National League in RBIs
Very few folks outside of those who drafted him or who bleed Dodger Blue want to see this one come to fruition. Tucker has been catching lots of grief over the past year between his lowkey demeanor, missing substantial time with injuries, and signing a huge AAV contract ($57.2M per for four years), loaded with deferrals. When healthy, he is one of the most consistent and well-rounded producers in fantasy, averaging .278/.353/.517, 30 HR, 23 SB, 84 R, 104 RBI and a 138 wRC+ over his first three full seasons (2021-2023). His production pace was elite in his last two, injury-marred seasons as well. Tucker is in a position to produce a career year in his first season with the Dodgers. Manager Dave Roberts intends to have him bat second between Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts, which would line Tucker up to score more runs than he drives in. It’s highly likely that Tucker earns most of his at-bats this season hitting third between Betts and projected cleanup man, Freddie Freeman – and that’s exactly how I foresee the top of this lineup materializing. FanGraphs Depth Charts (FGDC) currently projects Tucker with the fourth-most RBIs (99) in the NL behind Ohtani, Kyle Schwarber, and Juan Soto. I’ve got Tucker with 126 and the RBI NL crown.
It is that time of year again! It is time for BOLD predictions. As a reminder, these are not necessarily things I think will happen, but things I think could happen if a player reaches his 75-90% outcome. If I get 2-3 of these right, I will be pretty happy. Make sure you tell me where I am completely off base and what bold predictions you have for the 2026 season.
For all the rankings mentioned in those bold takes, I will use our 12 end-of-season fantasy values from the Auction Calculator.
1. The baby gloves come off, and the Nationals allow James Wood to break the MLB strikeout record.
Last season, the Nationals limited Wood’s plate appearances later in the season (average 105 PA in the first three months, 94 PA over the last three). Even with the throttling of playing time, Wood missed tying the total by just two strikeouts.
I’ve got 10 coming with one per position at C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, RP plus two at both OF and SP. While the first one will be catcher, we’re not going around the horn in that order, rather we’ll get spicier as we go through these in a Hot Ones-esque sort of way. You may have a different spice meter and I’m happy to hear if you think I have one firmly out of place.
C: Will Smith is the #1 Catcher on the Player Rater
How He Gets There: Mostly just by being himself. His career high 153 wRC+ last year came in just 110 games which relegated him to C7. His .345 BABIP seems ripe for regression against a .285 career mark, but he hit the ball much better last year to fuel that surge. It wasn’t just a bunch of bleeders and doinkers driving some extra hits in a sub-500 PA sample. I see him holding at least some of those gains while returning to the >500 PA plateau and easily paying off that C9 pricepoint. The competition is a bigger hurdle for this one than Smith’s skill but that’s also why it’s my opening salvo. They’ll get spicier!
Mike Trout wants to let you know he’s aiming to reach 30 feet per second, which is considered an elite sprint speed by Statcast.
Trout showed that he still has plenty of speed on Saturday, when he reached 29.9 feet per second trying to beat out an infield single against the D-backs. It was Trout’s fastest sprint speed since he first sustained his meniscus tear in his left knee in late April 2024, which he believes is a good sign.
…
For context, Trout, 34, averaged 27.9 feet per second last year, which ranked in the 62nd percentile and his fastest sprint speed was 29.7 feet per second. It was a drop off for Trout, who averaged 29.5 feet per second in ’23 (96th percentile) and 28.9 in ’24 (90th percentile) and regularly hit 30 feet per second.
But the drop was due to his issues with his left knee, as he tore his meniscus twice and had surgery twice in ’24. He returned last season but sustained a bone bruise in his left knee on April 30 when he stepped awkwardly on the first-base bag in Seattle. His fastest sprint speed of the season also came on that play. He returned May 30 but his speed wasn’t at his usual level.
This article highlights my bold predictions for the 2026 fantasy baseball season. Like last year, I’ll set the over/under at three of these being right, but my goal is more to give the reader ideas than to maximize acccuracy. As the creator of OOPSY, my bold predictions often lean on OOPSY outlier projections, although I will often cite other projection systems as well. I have listed my bold predictions in approximate order of least to most bold.
RHP Robert Stephenson
Injury: Right elbow inflammation
Expected return: 2026
Status: Dealt with a nerve issue and thoracic outlet syndrome symptoms in the offseason after ending last year on the injured list, but believes he can manage it. Has been throwing bullpens with no issues this spring and said on Feb. 23 he expects to be ready for Opening Day.
