Daily SP Chart archive

The chart includes their performance for 2025 (I changed over from 2024 #s on April 15th), their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far (this changed as of April 14th), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

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With about 20% of the season in the books, I wanted to see which arms have altered their projections the most relative to the preseason, like I did a few weeks back for bats. To do this, I’ll refer to OOPSY rest of season (ROS) projections, a system I introduced at FanGraphs this offseason. So far this year, OOPSY has held its own with other top projection systems featured at FanGraphs. I have a great respect for each of those systems, and would be happy enough to not embarrass myself in comparison. For each player, I’ll also offer my best guess on where I’d draft them in a standard 15-team Main Event league that was starting today, informed by a healthy mix of the FanGraphs auction calculator using OOPSY ROS and vibes.

Bear in mind that, across all projection systems, pre-2025 data still weighs much more heavily than 2025 data as pre-2025 covers a much larger sample of data. Like for bats, a single season typically never comprises more than half of the weight in a projection for arms, as projection systems usually weigh at least three years of historical data. The quickest ways for a pitcher to improve their projections are to improve their stuff, rack up strikeouts and limit walks, and keep the ball on the ground. These are reliable indicators of pitching talent that weigh heavily in all projection systems, not just OOPSY. In contrast, BABIP, home run per fly ball rate, and left-on-base percentage are less reliable metrics that typically require a large sample of data to significantly alter projections. The numbers referenced in this piece were collected on May 6th.

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Daily SP Chart archive

The chart includes their performance for 2025 (I changed over from 2024 #s on April 15th), their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far (this changed as of April 14th), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

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In 2017, Gerrit Cole struck out opposite-handed batters, lefties, at a 22.8% rate. That mark was above the MLB average, 20.4%, among right-handed starters striking out left-handed hitters. In the first few months of the 2018 season, March, April, and May, Cole’s K% versus left-handed hitters rocketed up to 45.5%.

Here’s how he did it:

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Daily SP Chart archive

The chart includes their performance for 2025 (I changed over from 2024 #s on April 15th), their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far (this changed as of April 14th), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

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Here are the latest playing time projection changes for position players since April 29th. Andy Pages‘ scorching couple weeks has his playing time going way up after looking to be on the precipice of losing his spot for the first three weeks of the season.

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Pretty way to start the week:

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Daily SP Chart archive

The chart includes their performance for 2025 (I changed over from 2024 #s on April 15th), their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far (this changed as of April 14th), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

Couch night! Crashed out watching games (OK, and the Met Gala entrances)… I’ll answer any questions about guys in the comments!

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Here is today’s chat transcript:

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Daily SP Chart archive

The chart includes their performance for 2025 (I changed over from 2024 #s on April 15th — a little earlier than last yr), their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far (this changed as of April 14th which is still a pretty small sample, but we can start attacking some cold lineups or be more careful with those performing well so far), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

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