Starting Pitcher Chart – May 9th, 2025

May 8, 2025

The chart includes their performance for 2025 (I changed over from 2024 #s on April 15th), their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far (this changed as of April 14th), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

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Starter Notes May 9, 2025

RK	PITCHER	GAME	10	12	15+	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	2025 wOBA RK	NOTE
1	Tarik Skubal	DET v TEX	x	x	x	40	2.21	0.98	27%	21st
2	Hunter Brown	HOU v CIN	x	x	x	43	1.67	0.88	25%	17th
3	Max Meyer	MIA at CHW	x	x	x	39	3.92	1.36	20%	30th
4	Aaron Nola	PHI at CLE	x	x	x	41	4.61	1.32	18%	19th
5	Clay Holmes	NYM v CHC	x	x	x	36	2.95	1.28	17%	5th
6	Luis Castillo	SEA v TOR	x	x	x	38	3.29	1.33	8%	27th	Just 1 ER in 12 IP over his L2, though still w/a meager 7 K/4 BB output; ERA is masking some mediocrity, but the track record keeps him in the rotation for now espec. in a matchup like this
7	Kevin Gausman	TOR at SEA	x	x	x	40	3.83	0.93	16%	3rd	I can’t see sitting Gaus w/his sub-1.00 WHIP even if this wasn’t a light board
8	Jose Quintana	MIL at TBR	x	x	x	28	2.83	1.22	10%	28th	A 3rd straight lefty for TBR making it hard for them to take advantage of their homestand; lack of many options elevates Q to even some shallow lg consideration
9	Nick Martinez	CIN at HOU	x	x	x	38	4.19	1.24	13%	24th	An out shy of 3 straight QS after a sluggish start (6.00 ERA in 4 starts); catching HOU at a good time, too
10	Jameson Taillon	CHC at NYM		x	x	39	3.86	1.03	14%	11th	Has just a 2.80 ERA w/a capable 16% K-BB in 6 starts after ARI cooked him for 6 ER in his season debut
11	Hunter Dobbins	BOS at KCR		x	x	16	3.78	1.32	12%	25th	Some solid work in 3 starts plus a juicy matchup give Dobbins some streamer intrigue, especially on this weak slate (yes, I’m going to keep hammering how few options there are!)
12	Mitchell Parker	WSN v STL			x	41	3.48	1.21	1%	12th	Still toting a mid-3.00s after B2B duds underscores how good his first 5 were (1.39 ERA)
13	Eduardo Rodriguez	ARI v LAD			x	38	5.92	1.47	19%	4th	Rebounded from 8 ER/1 K gm to fan 10 Phillies though still allowed 3 ER in 5.3 IP; core skills have been nice, still very tough to run v. LAD
14	Gavin Williams	CLE v PHI			x	32	5.06	1.75	12%	6th	Gav and Roki were chased heavily throughout draft season and now both are rightly starting to pop up on some shallower lg waiver wires… a few more starts like we’ve seen thus far could put them on the deep lg chopping block
15	Roki Sasaki	LAD at ARI			x	30	3.86	1.45	3%	2nd	I can barely muster confidence for Gav or Roki on a board featuring just nine 3-x options and I was a huge Williams fan in draft season
16	Michael Lorenzen	KCR v BOS			x	38	4.23	1.41	11%	8th	High-risk, modest-reward with a really tough matchup
17	Tomoyuki Sugano	BAL at LAA			x	39	3.00	1.13	8%	23rd	I don’t see how the ERA stays this good w/an 8% K-BB and 1.6 HR9
18	Osvaldo Bido	ATH v NYY			x	36	4.71	1.46	4%	4th	His first 5 highlight the volatility of these types: after allowing just 6 ER in his first 4, he allowed 8 ER to TEX and completely spoiled the good work, so like Lorenzen it’s a high-risk, modest-reward proposition with an even tougher matchup
19	Will Warren	NYY at ATH				28	5.65	1.53	15%	12th	Similar to Bido where his lack of IP (~4/start) gives him very little margin for error so while I think he will have bouts of streamer viability throughout the yr, it’ll always be risky w/substantial blowup potential
20	Zack Littell	TBR v MIL				41	4.61	1.10	10%	20th
21	Jordan Hicks	SFG at MIN				37	6.03	1.45	12%	21st
22	Erick Fedde 페디	STL at WSN				37	4.78	1.46		18th
23	Chris Paddack	MIN v SFG				32	5.57	1.48	6%	13th
24	Randy Vásquez	SDP at COL				32	3.90	1.67	-7%	28th	COL is so bad you might feel compelling to run him, but you can’t get mad if he gets trounced because you’re still running a -7 K-BB%, regardless of the matchup quality
25	Bryce Elder	ATL at PIT				32	5.06	1.38	7%	29th
26	Kyle Hendricks	LAA v BAL				30	5.28	1.17	3%	7th
27	Bailey Falter	PIT v ATL				37	5.06	1.21	11%	23rd
28	Patrick Corbin	TEX at DET				24	3.28	1.50	8%	5th
29	Bryse Wilson	CHW v MIA				22	5.56	1.90	4%	22nd
30	Antonio Senzatela	COL v SDP				34	5.50	1.86	6%	16th

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

10 Comments

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CarMars FavoriteMember since 2018

10 days ago

Stop the Sugano hate. He’s beautiful

pfitz23Member since 2025

Reply to CarMars Favorite

Agreed that the ERA won’t stay this good with an 8% k-bb, but it won’t stay there. He’s more like a 12% guy which could allow him to keep the ERA under 4 as long as he keeps pitching intelligently. Pretty easy start in tonight’s matchup, Angels are brutal.

Paul SporerFanGraphs Staff

9 days ago

Reply to pfitz23

12% stinks too!!

Reply to Paul Sporer

He’s atypical but sometimes it works.

12% is bad in a vacuum, I agree, but tolerable when it comes with a 3:1 or 4:1 k:bb. Sugano is capable of doing that and having decent ratios as a result. Not a ton of upside though, I agree

CYgano Gang is having a good morning today