Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – May 5, 2025

Justin Mason: I will begin at the top of hour. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

Vince: Looking for an SP IL stash. Bieber, J Jones, Eury, and Kershaw are available. 12-team H2H W/QS.

Justin Mason: I would lean Eury here, but I don’t tend to like to stash guys coming off of TJ or long term injuries if I can avoid it.

Domino: Hi Justin, would you roll with Kelly or Stephenson at C and Muncy or McMahon at CI? Can you please rank E. Cabrera, Warren, Soroka, and T. Myers? Thank you!

Justin Mason: Stephenson andMuncy

Justin Mason: Myers, Warren, Soroka, Cabrera

bdubs: 12 team, mixed. Wins, ERA, Saves, K/9

In this, the Year of Futilely Chasing Saves…
In which order would you chase the following: SMiller, Ginkel, Kahnle

In the Starter Division: ROS in order among Kirby, Giolito and Roupp (currently rostered), Castillo. (currrently rostered)

Hope you can cure my season long headache. Thanks.

Justin Mason: This is a frustrating year for saves. Miller, Kahnle, Ginkel

Justin Mason: Kirby, Castillo, Roupp, Giolito

Patrick: Do you think the Red Sox are exploring trade options for 1B or having Devers or any current OF train for 1B? Still stashing Roman Anthony.

Justin Mason: It doesn’t sound like they are yet, but I think they should. Josh Bell would make some sense. Andrew Vaughn if they wanted someone with control could too. I think they roll with who they have and Anthony is up by the end of the month.

Pete: Hi Justin, who has best ROS value out of Liberatore, Rupp, Gonsolin, Horton, or Wesneski.

Justin Mason: Roupp

Patrick: Do you think Bubba Chandler gets the call this week? If not, when?

Justin Mason: Probably in a few weeks.

Justin Mason: I do think he will be up by the end of the month

Patrick: Drop or hold Nick Kurtz? Have depth at 1B with Hoskins, Flores, and soon to be eligible Manzardo. Lacking in OF but not much available, maybe Josh Lowe.

Justin Mason: Hold

Apparently a Tigers fan now: Rank Olson, McCullers, and Roupp. Currently rostering the first two, but waiting on tonight’s game to see if Roupp can turn it around.

Justin Mason: Olson, Roupp, McCullers

MF Luder: Any chance Hyesong Kim makes an impact in fantasy while he’s up?

Justin Mason: I don’t think so. There is an adjustment period for a lot of guys coming from Korea and I expect 2025 to be one for Kim

Adenolith: So Crews is striking out like crazy again. I’m holding for a bit still, but what’s going on with him?

Justin Mason: I think he is just being too aggressive at the plate. Might be trying to swing his way out of the slump. I trust his hit tool and would not give up on him yet

Dave: When Royce Lewis returns from the IL, do you expect 12-team mixed starter-level production?

Justin Mason: As long as he is healthy, he is a must play in all formats.

MF Luder: Over/under Coby Mayo 19.5 HRs rest of season

Justin Mason: I am going to be optimistic and say over, but that may be because I spent way too much on him in FAAB last night

Guest: I have Jackson Merrill and Royce Lewis coming off the IL in a 12 team keeper 6×6 OBP and need to get rid of a few people: Currently have Donovan, McKinstry, Stowers, Michael Harris, Yaz, and Adolis in the OF and Torkelson, Goldy, Chapman, and Aranda on the corners.

Justin Mason: Yaz and Goldy. Maybe see if you can trade Goldy for something?

Adenolith: Was offered Yordan for Tork. That’s an easy auto accept right?

Justin Mason: absolutely

Steven: Drop Cam Smith for someone like Lawlar or Evan Carter? Nolan Jones and Jordan Walker available too.

Justin Mason: nah

JJP: Who would you rather have ROS, Bender, Faucher, or Tinoco? What about 2026?

Justin Mason: Tinoco, but I don’t really trust anyone to emerge from the pack in Miami

best case: even with some power gains, what do you think best case scenario is for Jacob Wilson윌슨 fantasy wise?

Justin Mason: Maybe like 15 homers? He is a hitter that would win the batting title though

Dave: Are Javy Baez’s adjustments real, and will they make him fantasy-relevant in 12-team mixed this year for as long as he has consistent playing time?

Justin Mason: I think they could be. Still too early to really tell, but a career high in z-contact and a career low in O-Swing and swinging strike rate are definitely inspiring. He won’t be this good all season, but I do like he is finally making an effort to make better decisions at the plate.

Willie: In a 12tm where Holliday became available, would you dump McLain for him?  McLain getting really hard to roster..

Justin Mason: I wouldn’t personally. I think McLain will be fine in the end.

Why Not Zoidberg: Always love the content, Justin. Trying to pick my last two this week, who are you starting out of this group – McLain, Story, Doyle, Adames?

Justin Mason: Doyle and Adames

Guest: been trying to trade for Maikel for a week now and the guy has been playing hardball the whole time. over Maikel Garcia. how hard should I push

Justin Mason: I would be willing to pay close to full freight in Garcia. The underlying numbers back up what he is doing. I am a huge fan.

IF Q: Hi Justin, would you drop Luisangel Acuna or Masyn Winn for Colt Keith in a 5×5 OBP roto league?

Justin Mason: I would drop Winn for Keith

High5Ghost: Augustin Ramirez or Tyler Stephenson ROS? Thanks

Justin Mason: Stephenson

Justin Mason: We had a discussion about this on yesterdays The Sleeper and the Bust pod if you want more context.

Pete: I know youv’e been a big fan. Does Kyle Leahy take over as closer for the Cards at some point this season?

Justin Mason: I think he could if the Cardinals trade Helsley at that deadline, but they could go to JoJo Romero too. I do like Leahy from a skills prospective though

David: I have 8 out of my 10 starts figured out, but not sure on the final two to pick. I could start Shane Smith, Luis Ortiz, Jake Irvin, and/or Casparius today, but also have both Clay Holmes (CHC) and Grant Holmes (CIN) available for later in the week. (Already plan to start Smith against MIA later this week FWIW). My gut says Clay Holmes and either Smith or Casparius today, but would like your input. Also, does Alcantara turn it around? I’m not risking LAD this week (fool me once and all lol)

Justin Mason: Holmes and Smith

Justin Mason: I would not bank on Alcantara returning to form any time soon. Guys coming off of TJ typically struggle with command and control in their first season back and that is what we are seeing right now with him. He should get better by season end, but maybe not the ace we saw previously until next season

MF Luder: How long before Quinn Priester is back in AAA?

Justin Mason: Once they Civale or Woodruff back, I would expect him to get sent back down.

Steve Bartman: Luis Garcia Jr on the Nats, sort of a forgotten asset (he was dropped in my 12 teamer whoa). Does he have value juice over guys like Stott or McClain? Or you prefer to hold on those guys?

Justin Mason: If you are good on avg, I wouldn’t mind switching out Stott for him

JJP: Rolling the dice with Quintana while Glasgow is out (10 team NL only so wire is thin). Should I start drinking now?

Justin Mason: Yes and blame it on Cinco de Mayo

Patrick: Where in the world is Anthony Santander (sung to the tune of Carmen Sandiego)?

Justin Mason: Hard to really tell. Maybe he is just not seeing the ball in Toronto as well as he did in Baltimore. He is getting a bit unlucky, but that isn’t the only reason things are a struggle for him right now. He is just not squaring the ball up right now

MF Luder: May through the end of the year; who has a higher WAR Gunnar Hoglund or Luis Severino?

Justin Mason: Severino, but closer than it would seem. I like Hoglund a lot

AJG: Robbie Ray cutting the walks down his last 2 starts and is looking like the ace we all hoped and dreamed! Byproduct of 2 home starts against scuffling offenses, or steps forward?

Justin Mason: Looks promising. I want to see him just attack the zone more. He did in his starts vs MIL and TEX but he wasn’t vs COL but they just chased because it’s the Rockies. The Cubs will make for a nice test on Wednesday

Brick: Fantasy trade: Ranger Suarez for Jordan Lawlar: who says no?

Justin Mason: The Lawlar owner if this is any sort of keeper league

Patrick: Projections for Ohtani RBI ROS? Current calculations have him around 50

Justin Mason: Most of the systems have him for 80-90 more

Soroka: Do you have any interest in soroka in a 12T league? His last rehab start was impressive with 11ks

Justin Mason: I think he is a streamer in 12s, but maybe a team streamer

Marty McFly: I’m gathring you probably have these guys ranking in this order: Roupp, Gonsolin, Giolito. Does a taking flier on Hogland intrigue you any more than streaming Gonsolin or Gioltio for a 2 step or holding Roupp until he can get the walks under control?

Justin Mason: I think Roupp has the most upside for this season out of that group. I believe in his stuff and he has been unlucky. I think right now for the long haul, I would say my ranks on them are Roupp, Giolito, Gonsolin, Hoglund, but I think the last three could be interchangable after this week and we see if Gioltio is able to command and control things better and if Gonsolin’s velo and stuff look better.

AJG: Just traded Stott and Taillon for Luis Castillo (the real one, not the one with the F initial). Thoughts?

Justin Mason: I like that a lot for you

AJG: Any predictions on what Sacramento will look like in the summer heat? Are we thinking coors-esque, or maybe even ridiculous than coors offensive output?

Justin Mason: I think it could be. It is already playing like a very good hitter’s park and we haven’t even hit the heat of the summer. Today is 87 and windy in Sac and Friday is supposed to be the first 90+ degree day so that might give us a good indication.

maris9: Maikel Garcia or Royce Lewis rest of season?

Justin Mason: Garcia but that is only because I don’t trust Lewis to stay healthy

AJG: Holliday 2 homer day yesterday — sign of a turnaround and things to come? I have to think that talented bat is just waiting to officially break out and stay for good

Justin Mason: I do think we are starting to see the breakout, but I don’t know if I believe that there is a full one this season. The in-zone contact numbers are really juicy, but I don’t think the power has fully developed. I buy the average, but I still don’t think he is a 20+ homer guy yet

Chase: Hey Justin, how concerned are we with Crochet’s velo? Results were fine yesterday but velo was way down. He downplayed it in his postgame presser, and it does seem like hes going through big mechanical changes. Is he someone you trade ASAP if you own him?

Justin Mason: I don’t know that I would sell him asap, but definitely something I am monitoring. Maybe if I got a first round stud at an offensive position for him, but not time to panic yet

Christina: My dynasty team currently has Devers, Maikel, Mayo at 3B. Looking ahead to ‘26 when Devers loses that eligibility, how good of shape am I in with the latter two moving forward?

Justin Mason: I think you are in great shape moving forward. I believe in Mayo as a power hitter. He just needs the chance to stick in Baltimore.

Marty McFly: Stream Beck over Stowers this week with the COL homestand, or buying Stowers as a better grab and hold?

Justin Mason: I would go Stowers.

Prospector: How pissed should we be that Lawlar is still wasting away in AAA?  Do you see a pathway to a call up that doesn’t include an injury?

Justin Mason: I don’t right now unfortunately. He should be up already in my opinion, but the D-Backs are going to stick to the plan.

Showbusiness77: Alot of good pitchers to upgrade from E.Cabrera/McCullers in my 10-tm H2H pts league. Which two would you add, and do you like any longer term? JP Sears (vs. NYY), Ty Anderson (Tor/Bal), Canning (@Ari/ChC), Rassmussen (Phi/Mil), Berrios (@LAA), Andrew Abbott (@Atl/@Stl), Wesneski (@Mil), Bryce Miller (@Ath/Tor), Blanco (@Mil/Cin), Roupp (@ChC/@Min), Ortiz (@Wsh/Phi). TY

Justin Mason: Miller and Rasmussen

Chris: Is colt Keith finally waking up?

Justin Mason: I really hope so because he is crushing me. The underlying numbers look good. He just needs to lift the ball a tiny bit

maris9: Should I trade Parker Meadows if I could land someone in AL only league? Or wait on him.

Justin Mason: Trade him

AJG: Is Michael Harris a better baseball player than he is a fantasy player? I wait for his big breakout every year, but he is far too streaky. Still just 24 tho, so plenty of time!

Justin Mason: The O-Swing issues will continue to lead him to these hot/cold streaks that are frustrating. Its one of the reasons I am always lower on him than the rest of the industry. Until he has a better understanding of the strike zone, I don’t see this changing.

Willie: In regards to the question about Holliday and McLain, thank you. Would you pick up Holliday and dump Lawler?

Justin Mason: No

Pat: Luis Ortiz has been a decent run. Looks like he’s alternating sinker/cutter usage, probably based on handedness, anything you see there that makes you think he could be settling in as a high 3s ERA starter with good Ks? Sort of what everyone wants Gavin Williams to be.

Justin Mason: The command and control aren’t good enough for him to be that yet. I have some hope because Cleveland is so good at developing pitchers, but I am not a buyer yet

Jack off all trades: Ben Casparius as a free agent or hold David Festa @ $1 in dynasty?

Justin Mason: Hold Festa

Jack off all trades: Festa not helping me in minors

Justin Mason: I know, but he has so much talent and he will be back sooner rather than later.

MIssing: Chase Meidroth or Colt Keith for MI in an Ottoneu 12 team points league?

Justin Mason: Meidroth

Honkus Wagner: In dynasty are you ready to move on from Sandy Alcantara? No real trade value, would have to drop

Justin Mason: No, hold and let him recoup value next season

Adenolith: Have you noticed or heard about any changes with Luis Robert that might suggest he’s returned to form? Awful last year and a bad start to this year make me wonder if this is just a heater or if he’s rediscovered some magic.

Justin Mason: He is being more patient at the plate which is great, but underlying issues with z-contact are still present and actually the worst of his career. Dude needs a change of scenery

Mike Tyson: designated hitter: 15 team roto dynasty.  Hogland or AJSS?

Justin Mason: Hoglund

PSA: Don’t forget to get your mama something for Mother’s Day this Sunday.

Justin Mason: Well, this is awkward…

MS: ROS in roto with QS, Woo or Ober?

Justin Mason: Ober

The Richard doesn’t Fitt: What positions do you think Ben Rice will hit the ten game threshold for, for 2026?

Justin Mason: Just 1B

Ryan: I am weak at 1B and 3B so I traded Nick Kurtz and Tony Gonsolin for Isaac Paredes who is duel eligible in my OBP League.    Thoughts???

Justin Mason: As long as it’s not a keep league, I think you did ok. You might regret it if Kurtz goes off, but I like Paredes a lot

12-team, QS not W: Max Meyer is a must-claim? How do you see him ROS? He was incredible for awhile but last start was beyond ugly

Justin Mason: Last start was bad, but he has been fantastic this year and I think he is the real deal. Added a pitch in the offseason that has great stuff + numbers. Good command and control. Great home park. I think he is a top 30-40 starter ROS

Showbusiness77: Add Royce immediately?  I have Bregman/Devers but need a non-BOS 3B for their off days. Drop any of Bellinger/Buxton/Rice/Neto for him?

Justin Mason: Drop Buxton or Belli for him asap

TJ: Do we think J. Burger’s stay in minors is for 10 days only, I am trying to see if I can play the week a man short while holding onto him

Justin Mason: Honestly, I don’t have a good read on the Rangers right now. I was surprised they sent him down at all

Love Is A Battenfield: Rank these catchers in a 12 team 5×5 OBP redraft. Goodman, Stephenson, Kelly, Wells.

Justin Mason: Stepheenson, Goodman, Wells, Kelly

Steve: i’m gonna drop Doyle and he’s going to go off this week isn’t he?

Justin Mason: DO NOT DO IT

TJ: O. Cruz with an incredible start, how much of his BB% is sustainable, barrel rate and exit velo are always qualities that he possessed right, hold or sell high?

Justin Mason: He clearly won’t keep up this walk rate all season, but he has made a big improvement in his patience at the plate. Dropped the O-Swing 7%and the In-Zone swing rate from 46% to 40% to wait on his pitches. The in zone contact is still bad, but he is waiting for his pitches and then demolishing them. This could work for a while. I do expect pitchers to adjust and then he would need to readjust.

Justin Mason: Five minutes left, so let’s speed round things

TD: Is Heston Kjerstad toast? Any reason to keep rostering in a 12T H2H 10 keeper?

Justin Mason: No, you can drop

JT: redraft, Bubic for Trout … who says no ?

Justin Mason: The Trout owner

Chucky: Starting Beck with 6 games at home or Julio v Tor @ Ath or Butler v Sea v NYY?

Justin Mason: Butler

MF Luder: If Will Smith remains healthy does Dalton Rushing have fantasy relevance at any point in 2025?

Justin Mason: probably not

Honkus Wagner: Mayo, Cam Smith, Matt Shaw ROS…how do you rank?

Justin Mason: Shaw, Smith, Mayo

Prospects!: Would you trade Carson Williams SS TB, and a smaller piece, for Chase Burns P Cin and Jacob Misiorowski P Mil?  I love the upside of the pitchers

Justin Mason: absolutelu

Ryan: Quick Question:  If we send a comment/question and it doesn’t get posted after 10 minutes, is it lost in the queue and should we re-send?

Justin Mason: It’s not lost in the queue, I just have a ton of questions. If your question doesn’t get answered, you can always reach out to me on social media

Speed kills: Who do you like better ROS: Victor Scott or Luisangel Acuna

Justin Mason: Scott

10 team league: kershaw, eflin, Schmidt, Taj Bradley, Berrios. Please rank them for a 10 team league. Any stand out as far and away the best asset?

Justin Mason: Eflin, Berrios, Schmidt, Bradley, Kershaw

Fred: If Bubba Chandler continues pitching like this and Pittsburgh keeps him in the minors long enough to get the extra year of service time, would he have legitimate grounds for an MLBPA grievance?  What would the team’s argument be?  That his ERA, WHIP, strikeouts, walks, poise need work?  Needs to work on holding baserunners in a day and age in which it no longer matters?

Justin Mason: I think he has grounds, but they never win those grievances

Hold the Mayo: How long a leash are you giving Mayo (assuming he doesn’t get sent down in a week if Urias or Westberg are back after a minimum IL stay)?

Justin Mason: I will give him a leash as long as he’s up

Jorbit Vivas: How relevant do you see Vivas being in AL Only leagues?

Justin Mason: I think he is going to play a lot which has value in AL Only. More of an accumulator type though

Concerned: How concerned are you with Vinnie P’s start?

Justin Mason: Pretty concerned. The Z-Contact numbers have cratered and that park doess him no favors for power

Taking out the Trash: AL only Jac Pederson, Nolan Jones, Gunner Hoglund, and Richard Fitts for Roman Anthony and Ryan Mouncastle.

Justin Mason: yes

Christina: Is Ryan Gusto a buy even with the word HOU is moving to a 6-man? Stream and hold?

Justin Mason: He is a streamer now

Rick: Any hope for Jordan Walker? Still very young, but I think at the very least he needs a change of scenery or a new manager (I think he screwed him up last year)

Justin Mason: I think I am giving up on him for this year

AJG: Is the real Reese Olson breaking out with 22 Ks over his last 3 starts / 18.2IP?

Justin Mason: I think we are starting to see the breakout for sure

Guest: Neto floating around on the waiver wire. Seems criminal.  Would you drop McClain for him?

Justin Mason: No, but I do want to pick up Neto

David: Dynasty league – I stashed Logan Henderson and Noah Cameron in  my minor leagues at the start of season. Thoughts on them this year and in the future years?

Justin Mason: I think both will make impacts this year. Might just have to wait a bit

Dave: Look into the future… who am I dropping when Kirby comes off the IL in two weeks– Liberatore, Giolito, Gallen or a PTBNL?

Justin Mason: Probably Liberatore

Lord Thunder: Does CJ Abrams remain a SS longterm?

Justin Mason: I think so

Rick: Read something that Cam Smith has been better than he seems since his BABIP has been low. How do you see him long term?

Justin Mason: BABIP is low, but that isn’t the main issue. He is making less than 80% Z-Contact which is the threshold I want to see for someone in the Majors. Needs to make more contact . He is too passive in the zone right now and pitchers are attacking him there

Justin Mason: That is all the time I have today.

Justin Mason: Please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!