Earlier this week, on the Keep or Kut podcast, I discussed (among other things) how all Spring Training news is bad. The good news (Jac Caglianone hit a ball a million miles per hour! Shota Imanaga has added velocity!) is all interesting but we immediately get into small-sample-size, how-much-does-it-mean debates. But the bad news is a lot of injuries and suspensions and that stuff you can act on right away.

You can see this in the Ottoneu add/drop data. The players being added in the most leagues the last seven days are mostly guys who are new to MLB or struggled last year – Tatsuya Imai, Munetaka Murakami, Kazuma Okamoto, Mookie Betts, etc. The only player in the top 10 most added this week who can reasonably be attributed to spring news (the new kick change) is Kyle Harrison. The top 10 most dropped, however, are all spring news: Jurickson Profar, Pablo Lopez, Reese Olson, Anthony Santander, etc.

Way down on that list, but creeping up, is Hunter Greene.

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Brad Mills-Imagn Images

American League

Guardians

• Joey Cantillo hopes to upgrade his slider.

“My slider has been pretty dog-water the last couple of years,” Cantillo said. “Honestly, it’s been bad. It’s been something we’ve just kind of hoped to throw in the zone, and it’s been a pitch where you really have to throw it to a great location for me to have the results that I want with it.”

Cantillo is coming off a 2025 season in which he logged a 3.21 ERA over 34 appearances (including 13 starts). Heading into a key spring in which he is competing for a spot in the Guardians’ rotation, he honed in on upgrading his slider to not only make it a more viable option for him in ‘26, but to hopefully make his other, stronger offerings even more effective.

The result? Cantillo made a slight grip adjustment that he and the Guardians hope will pay dividends this season, as the 26-year-old looks to make the next step in his evolution as a big league starting pitcher.

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“Don’t it always seem to go, you don’t know what you got ‘til it’s gone.”

Joni Mitchell may not be a roto savant, but even she might agree that the best part of the fantasy baseball season is research-and-draft season. Every day, from February until Opening Day, is so incredibly thrilling – nonstop spring training news, draft rankings adjustments, and player pool deep-dives – there’s always some rabbit hole of research to go down. As we continue studying and gaining confidence in the fresh player pool and a new year’s ADP, more questions arise, and the more work there is to be done.

Whether in NFBC or best ball contests, high-volume early drafters subconsciously form bad habits in draft rooms. We get too comfortable targeting and drafting the same players over and over. Conversely, we avoid players who have burned us in previous seasons and those we have some subjective bias against. Rarely do we deep dive and reassess those players because we’ve already made up our minds. That’s why it’s crucial to explore every nook and cranny of a positional tier. We have all fallen victim to draft room paralysis, where a decision between several similarly ranked shortstops or starting pitchers becomes gut-wrenching when we’re on the clock. This preseason column aims to help with those tough calls. We will explore some of the most confusing ADP clusters, by position, beyond the simple “I need to boost my batting average, so I’m taking this guy.”

Let’s dive into these ADP pockets logically and systematically, reviewing four analytical components of the players within each cluster.

• Playing Time (and Role)
• Health/Durability
• Skills/Categorical Contributions
• Context of Team Offense

ADP Cluster: Middle Round Corner Infielders

ADP from 17 NFBC 12-team Online Championships (OC) drafts over the last five days (March 5 – March 9)

• Sal Stewart, 1B, Cincinnati Reds (ADP: 173.1)
• Royce Lewis, 3B, Minnesota Twins (175.4)
• Alec Burleson, 1B/OF, St. Louis Cardinals (177.5)
• Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Detroit Tigers (183.4)
• Addison Barger, 3B/OF, Toronto Blue Jays (184.2)
• Jonathan Aranda, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays (190.2)
• Kazuma Okamoto, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays (193.4)

These are the seven corner infielders clustered in the Rounds 15 and 16 range of NFBC OCs. Right above them are Matt Chapman (157.8) and Willson Contreras (166.7), and right below them are Christian Walker (210.2) and Munetaka Murakami (211). Rookie prospects, multi-position eligible guys, injury risk, big power – this cluster has it all! Let’s dig into this group using our four defined pillars.

Playing Time (and Role)

The best place to start is with projected playing time. FGDC and OOPSY have identical playing time for all players, as do THE BAT and ATC. Since I manage playing time at FTN, I included my own in the average projection across three sets.

Addison Barger projects for the lightest workload due to expectations of mostly being a strong-side platoon hitter. He projects to bat cleanup against righties. Last season, Barger mostly batted fifth (109 PA), second (107) and fourth (100).

Sal Stewart has 18 games of big league experience. He is having a strong spring (.318/.423/.636, 2 HR, 2 SB in 26 PA) and projects to be an everyday bat for the Reds. At approximately 117 games, it’s likely we are all under-projecting him. Stewart has been one of the biggest ADP risers among corner infielders, jumping two rounds from February (Rd 17) to March (Rd 15). Stewart should start the season off hitting fifth behind Elly De La Cruz and Eugenio Suárez.

Royce Lewis’ 514 average projected plate appearances may be generous considering his woeful health history. His 403 PA last season (106 games) is a career high. Lewis is expected to hit somewhere between fifth and seventh to start the season, but could move up to third or fourth if he stays healthy and remains productive.

Kazuma Okamoto is expected to be an everyday hitter for the Blue Jays. He was quite the model of health in the NPB, averaging 589 plate appearances in his first seven seasons (2018-2024). Okamoto missed half of 2025 with a left elbow injury following a collision with a batter who was running down the first base line. Roster Resource projects Okamoto to start the season hitting seventh. He could work his way up into the top five, but Blue Jays manager John Schneider will likely utilize lefties (Barger, Daulton Varsho, Jesús Sánchez) to hit between their impact righties, projected leadoff man George Springer and no. 3 hitter, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

The St. Louis Cardinals’ Opening Day lineup is very much a work in progress. Lars Nootbaar won’t be ready in time and Iván Herrera has been dealing with knee inflammation. Rookie infielder JJ Wetherholt is essentially a lock to make the club, with a prominent role. Left-handed hitting Alec Burleson is a vital middle-of-the-order bat for the Cardinals who will start every day. Burleson greatly improved against left-handed pitching last season, albeit small samples: a 44 wRC+ in 2024 (133 PA) to a 98 wRC+ in 2025 (118 PA). Burleson should hit third to start the season.

Jonathan Aranda was having a breakout season, slashing .316/.393/.489 with 14 HR and 59 RBI in 106 games (422 PA) before fracturing his left wrist on July 31 in a collision with the human wall known as Giancarlo Stanton. Aranda crushed righties (.203 ISO), but struggled to hit for power against lefties (.071 ISO, 1 HR in 98 PA). He did make slight gains against lefties overall though, earning free passes at a 12.2% clip, producing a .378 OBP and 111 wRC+. Aranda should continue facing lefty starters, though he’d likely hit lower in the lineup against them. Against righties, Aranda should bat third.

Former first overall MLB draft pick from 2020, Spencer Torkelson, played in 155 games (649 PA) in 2025 and 159 games (684 PA) in 2023. His 2024 season (92 games, 381 PA) was derailed by an inability to hit baseball and spending nearly half the season in Triple-A. Riley Greene and Torkelson are their most productive hitters. My projected plate appearances for Torkelson are low and I’ll have to readjust for the next update. He is very likely to earn real-life plate appearances closer to where Jason R.R. Martinez (FGDC) and Jordan Rosenblum (OOPSY) have him.

Health/Durability

There are very few concerns of health and durability in this group, except for Royce Lewis, who has been dealing with soft tissue and lower body ailments since becoming a major leaguer. Like Torkelson, Lewis was drafted first overall (2017), though he did not make his MLB debut until 2022. Lewis tore his ACL in 2022 and again in 2023, playing in just 58 games in his official rookie year. He also spent time on the IL that year with hamstring and oblique injuries. He missed half the 2024 season due to quad and abdominal injuries. Last season, he was slowed by two more hamstring injuries – one in late March and the other mid June. His lower body must have been feeling swell when he returned, because he stole nine bases on 10 attempts in the final month (98 PA) after swiping just three in his first 301 plate appearances. Lewis had yet another scare early this spring (side tightness) but was able to return a few days later. In some other dimension where he’s healthy, Lewis is a top 25 hitter, but in this league, his laundry list of injuries have rightfully kept his ADP and fantasy price down.

The rest of this cluster have mostly stayed healthy and have shown durability. Sal Stewart had surgery on his right wrist in 2024 while in High-A following an off-field accident. Alec Burleson had a couple of quick IL stints in 2023 (left thumb fracture) and 2025 (right wrist inflammation). Otherwise, this is a fairly sturdy group.

Skills/Categorical Contributions

Below are average 12-team roto values for the 2026 season using three models. Note that ATC is an aggregate system that may include OOPSY as part of their formula mix, but we’ll use OOPSY separately since their projected playing time is different than ATC’s.

Alec Burleson comes in as the best value of this group, fueled primarily by a projected batting average in the .270s.  Burleson hit .290 last season and boasts a respectable 83.4% career contact rate. His power metrics last year were around league-average (91 mph EV, 9.4% barrel, 43% hard-hit), but he has hit 18 and 21 home runs the last two seasons, and projects for around 20 this season. He’s the toughest guy in this cluster to punch out (career 13.6%). With 600+ plate appearances for the first time ever, Burleson can set career highs in runs and RBIs, producing 80 or more in each category. He may steal a few bases as well. He swiped five on six attempts in 2025 and nine on 13 attempts in 2024.

Jonathan Aranda hit 14 home runs in 422 plate appearances and flashed above-average power metrics (93 EV, 12.8% BRL, 54% HH). His contact rate (77%) was around league average, though he hit .316 with a .291 xBA. Models project his 2026 batting average in the .260-.270 range, a fair regression when we factor in Aranda’s high BABIP (.409), which inflated that average. He likely won’t hit .274 against lefties in a larger sample this season. OOPSY projects Aranda for .249 batting average, and that is why OOPSY’s value for Aranda is low relative to the other two models.

Kazuma Okamoto is the toughest of the group to project, as the 29-year-old will make MLB debut after eight seasons in the NPB. Models project Okamoto for a walk 9-10% walk rate and a 18-20% strikeout rate. OOPSY is least bullish on his strikeout rate (24.8%). With 550+ plate appearances, Okamoto should hit around 20-25 homers with around 135-165 combined R/RBI, with the distribution between the runs and runs batted in depending on where in the batting order he settles. He doesn’t run and isn’t expected to help in stolen bases.

Spencer Torkelson and Addison Barger are the two best bets for above-average power production of this group. Torkelson hit 31 home runs in each of his two full seasons. Barger hit 21 in 502 PAs last season and boasted an elite hard-hit rate (51%), a 91.7 mph average exit velocity and a 116.5 max EV. Barger flashed a .231 ISO against righties (115 wRC+) and a .120 (69 wRC+) against lefties.

Before 2025, Lewis rocked an elite frequency of round-trippers (16.6 AB/HR). He managed to hit only 13 of them last season (403 PA), which took his AB/HR up to around 20. His career EV (89.1), barrel rate (10%), and hard-hit rate (39.8%) are league-average. It’s why we won’t see any model project 25+ homers even though we know he’s capable of it if he stays healthy.

Sal Stewart produced well in Double-A (329 PA) and Triple-A (165 PA) last season: 78 R – 20 HR – 80 RBI – 17 SB – .309. He is one of the few fantasy first basemen who can produce double-digit swipes. Despite having fewer than 60 career plate appearances in the majors, Stewart feels like the corner with the most upside in this group and the one most likely to move up into the ADP tier above this one. On February 12, Mark Sheldon of MLB.com reported that Stewart shed 26 pounds during the offseason.

Context of Team Offense

One thing in common is that none of these corners play on elite offenses – no one here is on the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets or Orioles. The Blue Jays scored the fourth most runs last year (798) and could be a top 10 run-producing crew again, but someone will have to step into Bo Bichette’s shoes. The Jays were 23rd in runs in 2024 when Bichette missed half the season. Okamoto and another year with Barger should help, but this lineup hinges on the consistency of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and they’ll need both George Springer and Daulton Varsho to stay healthy. Rogers Centre’s Park Factor is neutral (100).

The best offensive context among this group is that of the Reds. Great American Ball Park is an elite hitters’ park, ranking third in overall Park Factor (103) and second in HR Park Factor (123). Stewart currently projects to bat fifth behind Elly De La Cruz and Eugenio Suárez. It’s a righty-heavy lineup that Stewart can earn full-time at-bats in. It would not be shocking to see him smash his aggregate RBI projection of 66. Stewart had a strong success rate in stolen bases (84%, 27-of-32) and should have the green light so long as Elly and Suárez aren’t clogging up the base paths.

Comerica Park in Detroit is considered a pitchers’ park, but it’s Park Factor is neutral (100) as is its HR factor (99). Torkelson has 42 career road homers and 38 at Comerica in a similar number of plate appearances – 1,040 at home, 1,078 on the road. He typically whiffs at a 26-27 percent clip and produces substandard batting averages – .240, .219 and .233 over his first three seasons. Torkelson doesn’t have much lineup protection batting fifth with guys like Wenceel Pérez and Colt Keith behind him. The projected top-four of rookie Kevin McGonigle, Gleyber Torres, Kerry Carpenter (vs. RHP) and Riley Greene looks great on paper and the Tigers are favored to win the AL Central.

Aranda, Lewis and Burleson are on some of the weaker projected offensive teams in the league. Burleson and Aranda are both expected to hit third in their respective lineups. Lewis could work his way up with steady production and just staying healthy. The 2-5 after Byron Buxton looks exceptionally weak: Josh Bell, Luke Keaschall, Trevor Larnach (4th vs. RHP) and Victor Caratini.

Verdict (with value grades, A-F)

Alec Burleson (B) is the best all-around value and has the highest floor. He gets an extra boost to his value for his dual (1B-OF) eligibility.

Kazuma Okamoto (B) feels like a risky proposition considering he’s never played in the majors and will have much to adjust to. He’s the one guy in this tier I’m most confident will produce a profit at his price tag.

Sal Stewart (B-) is the most volatile of the bunch as a rookie with very little big league experience. He has arguably the most upside and offers additional value in the stolen base category.  He’s the hitter most likely to surge into the tier above.

Jonathan Aranda (B-) officially broke out last season and has an above-average floor, but we should be careful projecting a plus batting average and assuming that he will play against left-handed pitchers all season.

Spencer Torkelson (C+) has massive batting average downside, but makes up for it with strong power production (30 HR, 85 RBI) for a hitter in this range. If you’re a BA snob, draft other sources of power.

Royce Lewis (C+) is incredibly polarizing because of his massive prospect pedigree and some epic production stretches that balance out with legitimate concerns about his ability to stay on the field.

Addison Barger (C) exhibited plus power against righties in his breakout season. I’m lower on him than the market and haven’t been drafting him because I prefer other corner infielders in this range. His struggles against lefties likely won’t go away this season, and it’s more difficult to roster platoon bats in shallow redraft leagues.

In 1996, Larry Labadini had a dream. He entered the AL Only Tout Wars league with a plan that had never been attempted before: a $9 pitching staff. Labadini pulled it off, spending just one dollar on each pitching and the rest of his money on offense. He then built up a lead on offense before trading his hitting for pitching. He fell just short of winning the league, finishing fourth.

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Here is today’s chat transcript:

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Is the regular season that close that it’s already time for Bold Predictions?! I’ve been doing these for many, many years and they never stop being fun. I also want to caution that I’m truly fantastic at predicting injuries. By that, I mean a good portion of my positive picks seem to regularly miss a chunk of the season while on the IL, so perhaps being listed here is more curse than complement. We shall find out if the trend continues at the end of September! Note that any bold predictions calling for an auction value or ranking by end of season will be based on our auction calculator’s default settings.

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Join Justin Mason as he drafts his 2026 Mixed LABR Team live! Read the rest of this entry »

Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

• An interesting quote on how catchers might be graded on how well they challenge with ABS.

Within that, the Twins are among many teams giving catchers vastly more leeway than pitchers to challenge borderline calls, with hitters likely falling somewhere in between. That’s backed by minor-league data, in addition to a general sense that the emotional bias of pitchers clouds their objectivity.

For years, there’s been lots of talk about the ABS system reducing the value of catchers by making pitch framing a less essential skill, but I’m becoming increasingly convinced the opposite is true. Catchers who master the art of ABS challenges could have a bigger impact than ever. It will change games.

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“Don’t it always seem to go, you don’t know what you got ‘til it’s gone.”

Joni Mitchell may not be a roto savant, but even she might agree that the best part of the fantasy baseball season is research-and-draft season. Every day, from February until Opening Day, is so incredibly thrilling – nonstop spring training news, draft rankings adjustments, and player pool deep-dives – there’s always some rabbit hole of research to go down. As we continue studying and gaining confidence in the fresh player pool and a new year’s ADP, more questions arise, and the more work there is to be done.

Whether in NFBC or best ball contests, high-volume early drafters subconsciously form bad habits in draft rooms. We get too comfortable targeting and drafting the same players over and over. Conversely, we avoid players who have burned us in previous seasons and those we have some subjective bias against. Rarely do we deep dive and reassess those players because we’ve already made up our minds. That’s why it’s crucial to explore every nook and cranny of a positional tier. We have all fallen victim to draft room paralysis, where a decision between several similarly ranked shortstops or starting pitchers becomes gut-wrenching when we’re on the clock. This preseason column aims to help with those tough calls. We will explore some of the most confusing ADP clusters, by position, beyond the simple “I need to boost my batting average, so I’m taking this guy.”

Let’s dive into these ADP pockets logically and systematically, reviewing four analytical components of the players within each cluster. Since this specific article’s topic is starting pitchers, the components have been slightly adjusted:

Health and Durability
Skills: Arsenal, Stuff, Velocity, Command, Control
Roto Ratio Expectations (ERA, WHIP)
Team Context: Defense, Bullpen, Run Support (Wins)

ADP Cluster 4: Starting Pitchers, Rounds 18-20

These are starting pitchers drafted in the 205-240 ADP range in the NFBC Online Championship (OC) over the last seven days.

• Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies (ADP 212)
• Joe Musgrove, San Diego Padres (213)
• Jack Flaherty, Detroit Tigers (214)
• Matthew Boyd, Chicago Cubs (215)
• Ryan Weathers, New York Yankees (218)
• Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds (227)
• Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks (229)
• Jack Leiter, Texas Rangers (239)

Health and Durability

Five of the eight are seasoned veterans over the age of 30 – Nola, Musgrove, Flaherty, Boyd, and Gallen. At 35, Boyd is the elder statesman of the group. Abbott (26) has averaged 25 starts over his first three seasons. Leiter was a rookie last season, starting 29 games. Weathers has been in the league since 2021, the year he set his career high for innings pitched (94.2). Weathers turned 26 in December, and Leiter will turn 26 in April.

Aaron Nola has been the poster boy of durability over the last decade. Since 2017, his first full season, no pitcher has thrown more innings than (1,527). Last season was his first time on the IL, missing just over three months with a right ankle injury. Before that, he only spent two brief stints on the COVID-IL, in 2021 and 2022.

Zac Gallen missed three-plus months in 2021 with various injuries (fractured forearm, elbow sprain, hamstring strain) and one month with a hamstring injury in 2024. Since 2022, Gallen is third in innings pitched (734) behind Logan Webb (820) and Framber Valdez (768).

Jack Flaherty has averaged nearly 29 starts over the last three seasons, despite a relatively low innings-per-season average of 155.2, though Flaherty hasn’t been on the IL since 2022.

Andrew Abbott missed six weeks with a shoulder injury in 2024 and nearly three weeks with a shoulder strain in 2025.

Before Matthew Boyd’s 179.2 innings in 2025, he spent 380 days on the IL since 2021, and last pitched a full season in 2019. Boyd dealt with a variety of serious arm-related injuries and underwent Tommy John surgery in 2023.

Joe Musgrove missed half the season in 2023 (fractured big toe, right shoulder inflammation), half the season in 2024 (elbow), and all of last with Tommy John. Musgrove had his first bullpen session last August, has no strict innings cap for 2026, and sat at 94-95 with his fastball in his first exhibition game, against Team Great Britain on Wednesday.

Ryan Weathers has spent nearly 250 days on the IL over the last two seasons with finger, forearm and lat injuries. Weathers returned in the final month of 2025 to mixed results, but flashed strong velocity gains. Now with the New York Yankees, Weathers has our fantasy juices flowing in a late-February exhibition game where he topped out at 99.8 mph with his four-seam fastball.

Here are Jeff Zimmerman’s health grades in Eno Sarris’ pitching piece on The Athletic from February 3:

• Andrew Abbott (90%)
• Zac Gallen (90%)
• Jack Flaherty (86%)
• Jack Leiter (84%)
• Aaron Nola (81%)
• Matthew Boyd (72%)
• Ryan Weathers (65%)
• Joe Musgrove (N/A)

If I were to bet on anyone to pitch 180+ innings, it’s Nola, followed by Gallen. Musgrove won’t be restricted, but I’d be shocked if he threw more than 155 innings (which is OOPSY’s projection). ATC and THE BAT project 133, FGDC, ZiPS and Steamer are between 156-159 and I’ve got him for 150 at FTN. I have Nola for 181, and Gallen and Leiter in the 170s. Abbott, Boyd and Flaherty are in the 160s. Weathers (148, which might be generous) is the biggest red flag, given his health history and substantial uptick in velocity.

Skills: Arsenal, Stuff, Velocity, Command, Control

Below is a two-year sample for our cluster. SIERA is my preferred ERA indicator, and I’ve included and ERA-SIERA differential. Note that Abbott’s -1.21 differential signified being the “luckiest” of the group. Last season, that differential was 1.33 (2.87 ERA, 4.20 SIERA). Aaron Nola’s 0.63 differential was the unluckiest. He posted a 4.35 ERA where his SIERA of 3.72 was nearly in line with his career ERA (3.74 through 2024). Strikeout percentage and walk percentage are the preeminent stats for pitcher analysis. The various groundball rates are interesting to review as well. Notice the odd man out there – Abbott at 32.7%.

There are no truly elite control arms here, though Joe Musgrove (career 6% BB) and Aaron Nola (6.4%) are most reliable in this regard. Jack Leiter and Ryan Weathers have the nastiest stuff and throw the hardest. Leiter’s control has been his Kryptonite throughout his minor league days. Harnessing and reducing it will be the key for the former second-overall draft pick to fully break out and provide the most fantasy profit among starters in this range. Rangers’ new pitching coach Jordan Tiegs has been with the organization since 2019 and is considered to be a key driver in Leiter evolving as a big-league pitcher. It surely doesn’t hurt having veteran hurlers Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi in your corner.

All of these arms except Musgrove rely primarily on their four-seam fastball (between 48-51% usage in 2025). Musgrove has the most diverse pitch mix. He gradually increased his cutter and slider usage over his last four seasons with the Padres. Flaherty is primarily a fastball-curveball-slider guy. His curve was outstanding in 2024 (.175 wOBA, .219 SLG, 40% K). He upped his usage on it in 2025 (from 21% to 25%) and punched batters out at a 41% clip, though it did not fare quite as well –  a .281 wOBA, .380 SLG.

Roto Ratio Expectations (ERA, WHIP)

Projections models and personal opinions will all differ, but the one thing we all seem to agree on is that Andrew Abbott is due for some major ratio regression. Abbott posted that magical 2.87 ERA last season, after two seasons of 3.77. FanGraphs models project ERAs between 4.17 (FGDC) and 4.65 (THE BAT X). The lone outlier is ZiPS at 3.80. The most baffling stats were Abbott’s home splits. The fly ball-leaning lefty managed a 2.39 ERA in his home park – extra hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park. Abbott did reduce his walk rate last season (from 8.9% to 6.3%), but remained a below-average in strikeouts (19.5% in 2024, 21.8% in 2025). His WHIP is likely to land somewhere in the 1.23-1.28 range. He posted a 1.15 WHIP in 2025, 1.30 in 2024 and 1.32 in 2023.

The usually dependable Zac Gallen was a tough player to roster last year. Hitters bashed him to the tune of a 5.40 ERA before the All-Star break, which he cleaned up in the final 2.5 months (3.97). He also served up home runs at an above-average rate (1.45 HR/9) after four consecutive seasons in the 0.73-0.94 range. His velocity didn’t drop last season, but his strikeout rate did – 21.5% after four seasons of 26%. Gallen is a difficult arm to project for 2026 as there is a wide band for ERA and WHIP. A 3.50/1.15 season probably wouldn’t surprise us. Neither would 4.25/1.25. My personal expectations for him are right in the middle.

Jack Leiter throws certifiable heat. His 3.86 ERA was respectable, but a 1.28 WHIP, partially fueled by a 10.8% walk rate, was not. Ryan Weathers throws just as hard, but has done a better job at limiting free passes, keeping his walk rate under 7% over his 125 innings since 2024. These are the two highest-upside pitchers in the cluster, though each come with the most risk and the risk with Weathers is higher, especially as his draft price continues to rise.

Matthew Boyd managed a splendid 3.20 ERA despite higher peripherals (4.09 SIERA, 4.22 xFIP). Boyd was especially solid in his home starts:

• Home: 89.2 IP – .257 wOBA – 2.51 ERA – 0.90 WHIP – 23.2% K – 4.1% BB
• Road: 90 IP – .315 wOBA – 3.90 ERA – 1.28 WHIP – 19.9% K – 7.4% BB

Boyd was mostly disaster proof before the All-Star break, allowing no more than three earned runs in 18 of 19 starts. He allowed four or more in six of his final 12 starts. He did not allow more than five runs in any of his starts, and there’s something to be said about drafting boring, late-round veteran arms who reduce our fantasy staff’s volatility. I wouldn’t be surprised if Boyd followed up with another sub-3.50 ERA, but it’s most likely to end up in the 3.65-3.90 range. We can work with that.

Joe Musgrove has the highest ratio upside of the group. His home park is a hit-suppressor factory and he’ll line up for several starts against subpar offenses in his division (COL, ARZ). Among starting pitchers with 500 or more innings pitched since 2021, Musgrove’s 3.20 ERA is tied for ninth lowest. Just stay healthy, Joe.

Team Context: Defense, Bullpen, Run Support (Wins)

Poor Jack Flaherty finished last season with an 8-15 record for a team that was 12 games over .500 and almost won their division. Matthew Boyd’s Cubs won five more games (92 to 87) and Boyd started 31 games just as Flaherty did, but ended up with better run support overall and a 14-8 record. Reviewing Flaherty’s game logs helps paint the picture. He served up at least four earned runs in 9-of-31 starts, including three horrific outings (7 ER vs. CIN, 8 ER at TB, 8 ER vs. KC). The Cubs boasted a top-tier defense last season and project for much of the same in 2026. The Tigers are about league average. This information adds additional insight to their differences in the wins category last season, and likely portends our 2026 expectations.

Aaron Nola would be the safest bet for most wins among this cluster. Ironically, high win totals have eluded the him. Despite six consecutive seasons between 32 and 34 starts, Nola has won more than 14 games in a season once – 17 in 2018. Among pitchers in this cluster, Nola’s Phillies have the highest projected win total (89.5), and the Cubs are next (88.5). The Diamondbacks have the lowest (79.5), and it doesn’t help that the Diamondbacks bullpen was a dumpster fire last year (third worst) and don’t expect A.J. Puk and Justin Martinez back anytime soon. It’s doubtful that Kevin Ginkel and Paul Sewald hold down the fort in the meanwhile. Wins are the least projectable standard roto category, so we’ll all probably just laugh about it come October if Abbott wins 16 of 33 starts and Nola just 9 of 31.

Recommendation (with target grade)

Aaron Nola (B) – Buy back in on the “King of Even Years”. Plus strikeouts, a low walk rate, decent defense, and good run support from a team with a high win total.

Andrew Abbott (D) – Tough home park for pitchers, a tough hitting division, below-average strikeouts, and the Regression Monster knocking on his door. I’ll pass.

Matthew Boyd (C) – Ceiling is low, but the floor is stable. On a team with a strong offense and top-notch defense of mostly grounded veterans. Likely a pass, but I’d draft him 1-2 rounds after his ADP.

Joe Musgrove (B+) – Intrigued, but if his spring continues to flow flawlessly, the price will rise to the 140-160 range and our margin for profit has sunk. Currently a target.

Jack Flaherty (C+) – Derives value from strikeout output potential based on recent seasons flirting with the 30% K mark. Too much volatility in his profile for me to stomach.

Zac Gallen (C) – Defense projects among the top five, but the bullpen seems wonky, offense is weaker, and Gallen has become the human rollercoaster. Not a target but would consider him.

Ryan Weathers (B) – New high velocity, health history, and durability are all concerning factors. Ideal breakout candidate based on skills and new environment. Beware the rising price. I’d consider.

Jack Leiter (A-) – Ironically, the most affordable per current ADP is my favorite target. Healthy, elite pedigree, killer stuff, pitcher-friendly home park, and the boys in his ear (deGrom, Eovaldi)

The most important takeaway is one that hasn’t been introduced yet – that there are over a dozen starters in the Rounds 21-25 range who are comparable to the arms in this cluster. If we’re comfortable with those later targets, then we don’t have to spend much time shopping in this range. To recap, Leiter is a strong target, Musgrove and Weathers are also, albeit the latter comes with a high risk factor. Boyd, Flaherty and Gallen are considerations, but only after their ADPs. I won’t have Andrew Abbott on any of my teams this season.

It’s bold prediction week here at RotoGraphs. Last year, I got 3.5 of my bold predictions correct which was a really strong showing. Maybe I need to go bolder — or maybe I just got lucky.

Here are five pitcher predictions and five hitter predictions; hopefully they’ll be of some use to you as the season starts up. Alongside the predictions, I’ve also included some draft data from the current offseason to get a better sense of how these players are being valued by the Ottoneu community right now.

1. George Kirby is a top-15 SP (by P/IP among pitchers w/ 100+ IP)
Ottoneu Average Salary: $21.1
Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $27.5

Upon first glance, this might not seem like such a bold prediction based on George Kirby’s reputation. I think the market perceives him as an ace thanks to his phenomenal strikeout-to-walk ratio and clear top tier value in 5×5 leagues. But consider his record in Ottoneu points leagues: he’s never broken 5.0 P/IP in a single season and he topped out as the 22nd ranked SP by P/IP in 2023. His current Depth Charts projections have him at 4.9 P/IP, an exact match for what he accomplished during his first three seasons in the league and 22nd among all SP.

To break into the top-15, Kirby is going to have to figure out how to either boost his strikeout rate or cut back on his home run rate. Probably a mix of both. Last year, Kirby dealt with a spring shoulder injury that cost him two months of the season. Once he returned, his arm angle was eight degrees lower and his trademark pinpoint command was a little compromised. One hidden benefit of the lower arm angle was a flatter fastball and some additional arm-side movement for his secondaries. Both his slider and curveball had career-high whiff rates last year and if he can maintain and improve on those changed mechanics, maybe his strikeout rate can steadily tick upwards again in 2026.

As for his home run rate, Kirby actually ran the best xFIP of his career last year. His home run rate was about 2.5 points above his career norm and the culprit was likely poorer command of his two fastballs. His four-seamer has always been a little home run prone since he likes to elevate it up in the zone so often, but he allowed six homers off his sinker last year after allowing six total across his first three seasons in the big leagues.

2. Ryne Nelson is a top-25 SP (by P/IP among pitchers w/ 100+ IP)
Ottoneu Average Salary: $4.2
Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $3.8

When you open up the Baseball Savant pitch arsenal leaderboard, Tarik Skubal’s changeup leads the way with a +25 run value. That checks out as it’s an absolutely devastating pitch. The next most valuable pitch in baseball is Ryne Nelson’s four-seam fastball and I can’t say I expected to see that. The whiff rate on the pitch is a little below league average for a four-seamer so Nelson is racking up all that run value by limiting the amount of damage done on contact off the pitch. There are some caveats to think about here. Run value is a counting stat and Nelson threw his heater a lot — about 61.9% of the time. By RV/100, it was the 54th best pitch at 1.5 RV/100, which is still very good but not an extreme outlier.

The problem for Nelson is that he doesn’t have a great secondary pitch to pair with his hard fastball. He made some improvements to his slider and curveball last year but one of those breaking balls needs to take another step forward to raise his overall profile. To break into the top 25, he’d essentially need to break 5.0 P/IP — he landed at 4.8 in 2025. I think he’ll continue to suppress damaging contact with his heater and find a way to earn a few more whiffs with his secondary pitches this year.

3. Janson Junk is a top-30 SP (by P/IP among pitchers w/ 100+ IP)
Ottoneu Average Salary: $3.3
Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $1.1

Ok, this one might not be so bold because Janson Junk was already a top-30 SP last year, sneaking in at 26th with 4.8 P/IP over 110 innings. But 22.2 of those innings came as a reliever; Junk posted a 4.4 P/IP over 87.1 innings as a starter which would have ranked somewhere around 50th. From there, maybe this prediction seems a little more bold.

What I like about Junk is that he managed to harness his command to an elite level in 2025; among all pitchers with at least 100 IP, his 2.9% walk rate was the lowest in baseball by a pretty wide margin. The downside is, like Nelson above, he doesn’t really have a secondary pitch to rack up tons of swings and misses. That’s why his strikeout rate was just 17.2% despite an elite strikeout-to-walk ratio that approached six.

The Roster Resource depth charts have Junk penciled in as a long reliever in the Marlins bullpen, but there’s enough injury question marks in Miami’s rotation that I think Junk will eventually get a shot at starting again. The command improvements he made last year provide enough of a solid foundation that he can build off of. For a $1 flier at the end of your auction, that’s not a bad bet to make.

4. Joey Cantillo scores the most total points among Guardians starting pitchers
Ottoneu Average Salary: $4.3
Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $4.4

The Guardians starting rotation is filled with a ton of promising young pitchers; Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee, and Logan Allen로건 are all already well established in the big leagues, but Slade Cecconi, Joey Cantillo, and Parker Messick are all vying to make a bigger impact in the majors in 2026. Of that group of six youngsters, I think Cantillo has the best shot at actually breaking out in a big way this year.

It all starts with his changeup. That pitch returned a whiff rate of nearly 50% in 2025 thanks to a huge velocity differential from his heater. His breaking balls are decent — his curve got better results last year but he’s testing out a new grip on his slider this spring that could help that pitch take a step forward. The knock against him is his command, which is below average at best. He was able to cut his walk rate slightly once he was inserted into the Guardians rotation in July last year. With just a little improvement to his command and maybe a better breaking ball, Cantillo has an opportunity to take a big step forward this year.

The other half of this prediction requires Williams, Bibee, and the rest of the Guardians starters to stumble a bit — or at least fall short of Cantillo’s breakout. I think there are enough questions about each of them that I’m willing to bet that Cantillo rises to the top of the pile.

5. Chad Patrick scores the second most total points among Brewers starting pitchers
Ottoneu Average Salary: $3.4
Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $2.2

I hedged this prediction just a little because there should be a lot of moving parts to the Brewers rotation this year, but I think Chad Patrick will stick in the big leagues through the whole year. Because here’s the thing, this prediction was already proven correct during the first half of last year; Patrick scored 420 points before the All-Star break, second most on the Brewers behind Freddy Peralta. Then he was pushed out of the rotation and back to Triple-A for a significant portion of the second half of the season once the Brewers pitching staff got healthy.

For his part, Patrick has a really strong repertoire. By Stuff+, he has three above average pitches and his cutter is one of the best in baseball. He had a fantastic 3.2 strikeout-to-walk ratio last year and a 3.53 FIP that exactly matched his top line results by ERA.

As for the rest of Milwaukee’s rotation, I’m not sure Brandon Woodruff can make it through an entire season, Jacob Misiorowski still has to overcome his command issues, and the rest of the rotation is young and unproven. Some of those youngsters have brighter prospect pedigrees than Patrick ever had, but they still need to establish themselves in the big leagues and Patrick has already done that.

6. Mookie Betts scores the most total points among all SS
Ottoneu Average Salary: $35.7
Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $32.9

This is as much a bet on Mookie Betts as it is a bet against Bobby Witt Jr. — although Witt wasn’t even the top scoring SS in 2025, Geraldo Perdomo was. It’s no secret that Betts’s entire season last year was derailed by the mysterious illness he caught right before the team’s spring trip to Japan. There was about a month and a half during the late summer where Betts was producing like he had at his peak which gives me some hope that he’ll be able to bounce back in a big way this year now that he’s had a full offseason to get healthy. I have some lingering concerns; namely, his contact quality dropped off pretty significantly, though that could be explained away by the loss of strength that stemmed from his spring illness.

To reach the top of the pile at shortstop, Betts will probably need to score at least 1,000 points or more. He’s done that four times in his career, and if you give him credit for the 16 games he played at short in 2023, he actually led the position in scoring that season. I have nothing against Witt but he struggled to match his otherworldly production from 2024 last year and I think that’s more in line with his true talent than his outrageous line from that breakout season.

7. Alec Bohm is a top-5 3B (by P/G among batters w/ 300+ PA)
Ottoneu Average Salary: $8.3
Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $5.7

Alec Bohm was one of the guys I was on the fence about keeping this offseason. I quote, “An abysmal first month of the season is bringing down Alec Bohm’s overall numbers from 2025. From May 1 through the end of the season, he posted a .308/.356/.453 slash line, good for a 124 wRC+ and 5.4 P/G.” That P/G over those five months would have landed him ninth among all 3B last year.

I also noted that Bohm’s hot finish to the season wasn’t driven by any improvement to his underlying contact quality, but simply a career-high contact rate. More balls in play led to more positive results, even if he continued to pound the ball into the ground at too high a rate. Instead of embracing the uncertainty in his profile, I’ve decided to bet on the improvements he made to his contact rate. That’s a pretty significant change to his profile, and if he’s able to figure out how to elevate his contact just a little more often, a huge breakout could be in the cards.

8. Bryson Stott is a top-5 2B (by P/G among batters w/ 300+ PA)
Ottoneu Average Salary: $8.4
Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $6.8

The argument for Bryson Stott goes a lot like the argument for Bohm above. During the second half of the season, Stott posted a 135 wRC+ and 5.1 P/G in Ottoneu. Across a full season, that would have landed him around seventh among all 2B. That late season improvement stemmed from a pretty dramatic swing change. He was able to improve the quality of his contact while still maintaining his excellent plate discipline.

Assuming the new swing mechanics carry over to this year, Stott looks well positioned for a breakout in 2026. Plus, Michael Baumann also identified Stott as a potential breakout when looking for players with similar characteristics to Geraldo Perdomo and Maikel Garcia prior to their own breakouts.

9. Spencer Horwitz is a top-12 1B (by P/G among batters w/ 300+ PA)
Ottoneu Average Salary: $4.1
Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $2.8

I really liked Spencer Horwitz as a sleeper last year because he had 2B eligibility and looked like he was going to have a shot at full-time at-bats after an offseason trade to Pittsburgh. Unfortunately, wrist surgery derailed the start of his season and it took a while for his bat to get going once he made it back to the majors. During the second half of the season, he posted a 154 wRC+ and put up 5.8 P/G in Ottoneu. That would have ranked 10th among qualified 1B across the full season.

His contact quality doesn’t stand out that much but he does have an excellent approach at the plate. That gives him a solid floor and I think a fully healthy wrist will help him take a big step forward this year. The potential risk to this prediction is that he’s absolutely atrocious against left-handed pitching — his career platoon split is nearly 100 points of wOBA. If he’s relegated to the strong side of a platoon and makes a bunch of pinch hit appearances in games that he doesn’t start, his P/G will likely take a pretty big hit. Practically, you can just stash him on your fantasy team’s bench whenever the Pirates are facing a lefty, but for this prediction to come true, he needs to improve his production against same-handed pitching and figure out a way to stay out of a platoon situation.

10. Two of Konnor Griffin, Kevin McGonigle, or JJ Wetherholt will not be starting caliber players at shortstop in 2025

Just like my bold prediction about Roman Anthony and Kristian Campbell last year (which I got half right), I’m throwing some cold water on the hype surrounding these three top prospects. I did hedge a little bit because I didn’t want to be too much of a downer, but it’s really hard to make the jump from the minor leagues to the majors. It certainly seems like the Pirates, Tigers, and Cardinals are going to give these three a shot to break into the big leagues this year, probably right out of spring training, but their success should not be simply assumed to be a guarantee. Griffin is only 19! McGonigle only has 206 plate appearances above High-A! Wetherholt only has a little over 600 total plate appearances as a professional! The odds are that all three of these guys will end up being very good ballplayers eventually, but it might be a lot to ask of them to be among the best at their position right off the bat in 2026.