Starting my diet this week, so I had to binge a bit this weekend:
.@rhyshoskins is a legend. ? pic.twitter.com/tV8nFRI4Ul
— MLB GIFS (@MLBGIFs) August 20, 2018
8/19/18
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!
Yes, 589 was the last pod posted, but 590 is the Justin & Jason pod that will go live Monday AM!
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| 7:30 |
: I’ll go ahead and get this week’s chat started.
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| 7:30 |
: Here are the FAAB bids from Tout Wars 15-team leagues
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| 7:30 |
: Auction
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| 7:30 |
: TWard: 56
ROrtega: 49 DBote: 33 KGlover: 28 AGomber: 19 JJunis: 17 TAustin: 12 YSanchez: 8 LForsythe: 7 RMcMahon: 6 WMiley: 4 RYarbrough: 4 TBlach: 4 TWilliams: 3 KPlawecki: 3 SGonsalves: 2 BreAnderson: 1 MMoore: 0 HNeris: 0 |
| 7:31 |
: Draft
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| 7:31 |
: TWard: 45
NWalker: 24 MWieters: 24 LForsythe: 16 ELongoria: 15 ADeSclafani: 14 JLucchesi: 10 BBrach: 7 TBlach: 1 RMcMahon: 0 |
For the past month, I’ve been struggling to estimate the NFBC Main Event FAAB bids with my estimates coming in on the high side. I thought dormant owners or the trade deadline could have been behind the low estimates. After still being about three times too high last week, I dove in and redid my prediction formulas with hopefully better results.
For reference, here were some of the estimates and bids from last week.
I've been trying to estimate the weekly FAAB spent in the @thenfbc main event leagues.
My projections are over, again
Name: Projected, Actual
Scott Alexander: 111, 29
Ryan Madson: 100, 22
Brian Johnson: 18, 6
Hunter Renfroe: 45, 26
Tommy Milone: 11, 4— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) August 13, 2018
The values were so far off, they needed a correction. After testing several methods, I came up with improved results. The biggest change was a larger weekly factor dragging down estimated bids as the season progresses.
8/17/18
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!
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This week’s transcript is now available!
| 2:16 |
: Hello everyone! Thanks for coming out! Lemme throw my DraftKings (not sponsored) league for tonight out there in case anyone wants to join – Running a 35-person $5 DraftKings game for tomorrow if you’re interested! draftkings.com/draft/contest/…
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| 2:16 |
: Can’t wait to be back in September to mash some fat taters! |
| 2:16 |
: Fat taters incoming! |
| 2:16 |
: Do you like prospects? Baseball prospects to be clear. |
| 2:16 |
: I do |
| 2:16 |
: What’s the latest on Wander Javier? Do you like his upside? |
Unlike the White Sox, where almost all the top talent is at double-A or higher, the Indians have a very thin system with most of the talent in A-ball or lower. With that said I loved their 2018 draft and feel it’s being under estimated for how impactful it could be in a few years with the right coaching/development and some luck with injuries.
Click here for the pre-season Top 10
1. Triston McKenzie | RHP | AA —> McKenzie is one of the better starting pitcher prospects left in the minors and if he were affiliated with New York, Boston or another big market team there would be a lot more hype here. McKenzie has a great frame with room to add strength (and fastball velo), athleticism and projects to eventually have three better-than-average offerings. He needs to get back to utilizing his height more effectively and generating more ground balls. One caution: He missed the start of the year with a forearm issue, which can often lead to Tommy John surgery.
2. Nolan Jones | 3B | A+ —> I’m a big fan of Jones. Despite some swing and miss to his game, he shows an advanced approach for someone that opened the year as a teenager. And he’s already starting to turn his raw power into over-the-fence pop. His willingness to take a walk also adds to his value and he should hit for average, power and produce above-average on-base totals. He should stick at third base and looks like a future middle-of-the-order run producer. Jones, 20, could very well reach double-A in 2019.
When I see a pitcher consistently struggle, I can get a bit antsy. Pitchers often stick to one gameplan, believing that their current approach, despite its constant failures, is the only path that can lead them to success. It frustrates me when I see a pitcher refuse to go back to the drawing board and experiment for at least one game to see if something different could work.
Sam Gaviglio is having a rough season. Through 83.1 frames of sixteen starts and two relief appearances, Gavilgio holds a disfigured 4.86 ERA and 1.42 WHIP without much indicating that he deserves a whole lot better…except for last Saturday.
Watching Gaviglio’s outing against the Rays, I couldn’t help but get a little excited. Right in front of me was a man trying something new in the midst of peril and struggle. He recognized his current course wasn’t getting the job done and started experimenting. He was in his own world on the hill searching for something that worked.
I think he found something.
8/16/18
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!
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Steals have become more and more rare these days. The upshot of that is you don’t need as many on your fantasy team to compete, but you still need some! This year isn’t that much different than last as far as SBs, but the top end is down a bit. This time last year, we had three guys with at least 35 SBs (Billy Hamilton 53, Dee Gordon 43, and Trea Turner 35) and this year Turner leads at 32. Last year there were 15 guys with 20+ and 57 at 10+. This year, we have 15 and 52, respectively.
Here are eight superfast guys who could give you a steals boost down the stretch:
Adam Engel OF, Chicago White Sox
Engel’s 30.0 ft/second sprint speed is tied for the third highest in the league behind only Byron Buxton (30.5) and Billy Hamilton (30.1). His stunning defense is earning him some extra playing time with starts in six of the last seven games. While the bat isn’t great (64 wRC+), he has still managed 12 SBs in 330 PA.
