1/9/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @pitcherlist – Co-Host/Producer

GET THE SLEEPER & THE BUST T-SHIRT FROM ROTOWEAR!

Top 50 SP Fades

• NFBC ADP (set to 12/25/18 for the start date to follow along)

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Welcome back to my annual off-season series that has a quick-and-dirty review of all 30 minor league systems around baseball. This feature began way back in 2008.

The Cleveland IndiansIf you were perusing last year’s series, you would have read this:

The Sleeper: Nolan Jones, 3B: You haven’t reach much about Jones yet but that might chance in 2018 when he moves up to full-season ball for the first time. The 19-year-old third baseman produced a .430 on-base percentage in 2017 in short-season ball thanks to a 16% walk rate and .317 batting average. The average is due for some regression thanks to his .417 BABIP and 22% strikeout rate but he has the frame (6-4, 190 pounds) and the line-drive pop (22 LD%) to grow into some serious power. Jones looks like a future stud at the hot corner and he has the defensive tools to stick there.

Now onto the new stuff:

First Taste of The Show: Shane Bieber, RHP: Bieber had his ups-and-downs but he held his own during his first taste of the majors better than I thought he would. He chewed up innings and threw strikes — but got too much of the strike zone at times. With improved fastball command, Bieber could develop into a solid mid-rotation starter thanks to his strong breaking stuff and the aforementioned control. His development (along with Mike Clevinger’s) has made it easier for the club to consider parting ways with Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer.

Read the rest of this entry »

Strikeouts have become a massive part of today’s game both on the field and in fantasy baseball. The ability to consistently miss bats is a key driver in success and can be a building block for a breakout. Let’s take a look at the top 10 gainers in SwStr% (min. 100 IP) and see what drove their gains.

Gerrit Cole, Astros | +4.6% to 15%

We’d been waiting for this Cole breakout since he debuted! He had the big 2015 season with 2.60 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 208 IP, but even the 24% K rate that season felt short of what Cole’s arsenal could do at peak. There was a valid concern that Cole wouldn’t ever reach those heights, though. The Pirates preach heavy fastball usage which can undercut the potential of a secondary arsenal as strong as Cole’s. During Cole’s 2013-17 tenure in Pittsburgh, they led baseball in starter fastballs at 62%.

Read the rest of this entry »

Since the end of the regular season, I’ve been helping various publications write player previews for the upcoming season. During the process, I kept a list of hitters who I felt there may be reasons to adjust their talent projections. I’ve found that even when I normally deep dive into hitters, I come up close to the standard projection and wasted my time. I found I’m better off focusing my effort on pitchers. I can’t afford to ignore hitters, though. I’m now going to analyze these few in detail over a series of articles to see if their projection holds up or do I need to adjust it.

For some of the hitters, the reason behind the talent change (e.g. injury) is obvious. For others, I don’t remember the exact reason. Oops. I’m going to start working my way through them starting with the ones with the highest ADP.

Note: I’m only dealing with the player’s talent. Projecting playing time is an entire separate fiasco.

Justin Turner (109th in NFBC ADP)

Read the rest of this entry »

There wasn’t a ton of moves with fantasy implications over the weekend but there was enough to lump together some. I’m still at the point that no major team breakdowns can really start with the two big bats still available. Anyways, here is a breakdown of the moves:

Phillies sign David Robertson

The 33-year-old righty immediately joins the Phillies closer discussion for the simple reason he’s projected to be the best bullpen arm. Steamer has him for a 3.22 ERA with Seranthony Dominguez next at 3.39 and previous closer Hector Neris at 3.62.

The Phillies front office would prefer Robertson to close instead of the other two to save money. The team is already on the hook for his $23 million dollar contract, so his price is set. The more Saves the pre-arbitration arms get, the higher their arbitration contracts will cost.

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back to my annual off-season series that has a quick-and-dirty review of all 30 minor league systems around baseball. This feature began way back in 2008.

If you were perusing last year’s series, you would have read this:

The Sleeper: Matt Hall, LHP: Hall isn’t your typical sleeper. He’s not toolsy, especially athletic and he doesn’t eye-popping raw stuff. He’s a small-ish lefty start with a fastball that just squeaks into the 90s at times but he still does a number of things well. His curveball is a plus offering and the heater is good enough to keep hitters honest. He also generates a lot of ground balls despite just 6-feet tall. Some deception in his delivery helped him strike out 149 batters in 138.1 innings. Although he could chew up innings as a starter, Hall could really break out for the Tigers if he gets moved to the pen.

Now onto the new stuff:

First Taste of The Show: Christin Stewart, OF: I’ve been pretty critical of Stewart as a prospect over the past few years but I have give credit where credit is due. He became a better all-around hitter in 2018 while trimming his strikeout rate and not losing any of his power in the process. He looks like a pretty decent bet for 20+ homers and a more-than-healthy on-base rate. With that said, he still carries negative value into the field, and on the base paths.

Read the rest of this entry »

1/4/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Producer/Co-Host

GET THE SLEEPER & THE BUST T-SHIRT FROM ROTOWEAR!

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles

• Troy Tulowitzki to the Yankees (1:30)
• David Robertson to the Phillies (6:14)
• Jonathan Lucroy to the Angels (11:48)
• Yusei Kikuchi to the Mariners (17:43)

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Welcome back to my annual off-season series that has a quick-and-dirty review of all 30 minor league systems around baseball. This feature began way back in 2008.

If you perused the series last year, this is what you would have read:

The Stud: Mitch Keller, RHP: Easily the Pirates’ best pitching prospect, Keller has above-average control, a mid-90s fastball and the makings of developing into an innings-eater. In his prime, he should offer three better-than-average offerings, which will play up even more with his ability to consistently throw strikes. Keller, 21, also induces an above-average number of ground ball outs and allowed just seven home runs in 116 innings in 2017. The right-handed hurler just needs more experience and injuries have cost him valuable innings. After throwing 34.2 innings at the double-A level last year, he’ll return to that level but should see triple-A in the second half. He has the makings of a No. 2 or 3 starter.

Now onto the new stuff:

First Taste of The Show: Nick Kingham, RHP: Kingham missed some valuable development time in 2015-16 due to injuries so he made his MLB debut at the age of 26. And he gave us a valuable lesson on the value of fastball command. The right-handed pitching prospect struggled in that area and ended up giving up 18 homers in just 76 innings of work (2.13 HR/9). Now it’s not all doom-and-gloom for Kingham. He missed some bats and generally showed OK control (highlighting the difference between command and control)… while also looking like a potential innings-eater as a No. 4 starter — if he can solve the homer issues.

Read the rest of this entry »

We’ve made it to the New Year! It is the dead of winter, but at least with fantasy football being done, we’re flipping the fantasy calendar back toward baseball. Those who really dive into both sports will now begin their baseball deep dive and that’ll move the ADP markets for sure, so keep that in mind when I reference these draft spots. Today I want to look at five players I’m buying back after disappointing 2018 seasons. The hype is gone, their price has tanked, and now is the time to buy!

Ian Happ | Chicago Cubs | 261 ADP

Happ and teammate Javier Baez were going in the same ADP range last year just around the Top 100 and I chose Happ… whoops. Although, Ozzie Albies was going around them, too, and I favored him over the two Cubs so I didn’t get too crushed by my awful Happ over Baez decision. Not that Albies over Baez was some great win. When Happ hit a home run on the first pitch of the season, my confirmation bias went into overdrive. I’m not proud of it, but I definitely got way too hyped over that whopping ONE PITCH SAMPLE! He went 0-for-4 with 3 Ks the rest of that game and wound up with a .233/.353/.408 line, 15 HR, and 8 SB in 462 PA.

Read the rest of this entry »

When Yusei Kikuchi was posted in early December, he had only a month to sign with a team. For this reason, his signing decision was going to fall over the holidays and Seattle broke the news right before the end of the year. Because of the unique timing, he didn’t get a ton of press, but owners should be aware that he’s a decent starter and not to be ignored on draft day.

First off, the other Jeff beat me to writing about the 27-year-old lefty. Twice to be exact. Once before the signing and once after.
Read the rest of this entry »