After going over the pitchers who changed their velocity from 2018 to 2019, the pitchers who have seen changes this year get highlighted today. For the first week or so, pitchers who saw major adjustments were in the crosshairs of the fantasy community. But who from that list kept the changes? A pitcher’s talent shouldn’t get anchored to one early-season report. It’s time to dive in.

About the data

• I use the fastball’s average spin rate and velocity along with the pitcher’s overall Zone% to come up in the Injury metric. With spin rate, I’ve seen pitchers try to keep up their velocity while dealing with an injury and the pitch’s spin changes. As for Zone%, if a pitcher is having issues finding the plate, they may have something mechanically wrong.
• The Injury value ranges from a -100 (several negative forces are at work) to +100 (major improvements).
• A pitcher can have more than one fastball in the table
• When examining the 2019 data, I’m comparing velocities from the past week to fastballs thrown before this past week.
• All the numbers are available in this overall spreadsheet.

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It’s that time to dive into the 38 NFBC Main Events to see who is being dropped in 10 or more leagues and why.

Injury

• Dellin Betances (13): He’s out until late May with a shoulder injury.
• Ronald Guzman (13): He’ll be on the IL for two to three weeks with an injured hamstring. For teams in need of hitting, he might be worth a stash.
• Franchy Cordero (12): Cordero was due for some regression with his .300 AVG fuel up by a .556 BABIP and down by a 35% K%. It’s just tough to place a finger on his true talent with on the time on the IL.

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A live look at how my fantasy season is going:

This sums up what kind of night it's been for the Mets…. pic.twitter.com/ll3twphc3f

— Cut4 (@Cut4) April 17, 2019

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I love middle relievers in fantasy baseball. I play in a lot of deeper formats where they are viable as staff supplements even if Holds isn’t a category so I’m always looking out for the next big thing. I’m not completely averse to buying a Josh Hader (although that might be a bad example this year as he’s been the de facto closer with Corey Knebel out for the year and Jeremy Jeffress yet to debut), Dellin Betances, or this year’s draft darling, Ryan Pressly, but a major key to the value of middle relievers is that they’re cheap. Finding the next Hader, Betances, or Pressly is much more useful and can often be done on the fly in-season.

With today’s tattered starting pitcher landscape, middle relievers are as popular as ever, so we need to get the jump on the next big thing since more eyes are searching for them. It’s only April 16th so reliever samples are especially small as only 20 guys have even 10 innings, but I’ve still got my eye on 10 middle men who could help stop the bleeding for those of us toting the obscene ERAs of Carlos Carrasco (12.60), Nick Pivetta (9.45), Chris Sale (9.00), Walker Buehler (8.25), Zack Wheeler (7.47), Aaron Nola (7.45), Corey Kluber (6.16), and more. Some of these guys could even become their team’s closer which would only add to their fantasy value, but that is not a major consideration for this list.

Diego Castillo, TB | 30% K, 10% BB, 14% SwStr, .111 AVG in 9 IP

Castillo is part of a 1-2 punch at the backend of Tampa Bay’s bullpen with closer Jose Alvarado. The righty/lefty duo (Castillo being the righty) had strong seasons in 2018, too, and came into the season battling for the closer’s role. Alvarado won out, but Castillo is a key part of the bridge to the ninth and has already nabbed five Holds in his eight appearances.

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Note to self, take Yu Darvish to the county fair with me this summer…

Yu Darvish throws the most devastating fastball of his career. pic.twitter.com/sicvVLhnUL

— Cut4 (@Cut4) April 16, 2019

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4/15/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 20, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER20!

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• @sporer – Host
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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Corey Kluber & Carlos Carrasco smashed (2:40)

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Hey y’all! With this weekly post, I’m going to give you a couple of guys that have piqued my interest.  I will give you two guys for deep fantasy league and two guys for shallow and/or re-draft leagues.  Ready or not, here we go!

Chris Seise SS – (TEX)   Seise missed all of 2018 has he recovered from shoulder surgery.  However, the 29th overall pick in 2017 has been lighting up A ball of the Hickory Crawdads. As of this writing, he is hitting .342/.390/.500, walking 5% and striking out 25% of the time.  While he still has not hit anything over the fence, he has smacked 4 doubles. Most scouts think he will eventually move off short due to his size, he is 6”2’ and 175 lbs.

Eric and Kiley had Seise 12th on the Rangers list. I could see him move over to third, where his power profile fits more.  Even with the great numbers, Seise has struggled against the southpaws, with a .143 AVG and OBP and with an alarming 42% K rate. In deep leagues, Seise is the type of player you need to jump on. He will probably be available in most leagues and since he missed all of last year due to injury, he should be off most owner’s radars.

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You know about Fernando Tatis Jr. of the San Diego Padres. You also know about Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Toronto Blue Jays. And Wander Franco of the Tampa Bay Rays, who just turned 18 in March, is starting to garner the attention that he deserves.

Clearly, FanGraphs alumni have also been paying attention. Dave Cameron jumped on the Tatis gravy train in San Diego… while Carson Cistulli did the same in Toronto… and Jeff Sullivan skipped off to Tampa Bay. No doubt there is a FanGraphs writer about to head west to Seattle.

Why? Because of 18-year-old outfielder Julio Rodriguez, who happens to be the focus of this piece. And it’s not my first time talking about this budding star. In early March, during the Mariners 2018 season in review piece, I wrote:

The 2019 Lottery Ticket: Julio Rodriguez, OF: There are a few low-level minor league players that possess the ability to burst onto the scene like Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Fernando Tatis Jr. have in recent years. Wander Franco in Tampa Bay is one and Rodriguez could be another, although he’s not quite as advanced with the bat at this point. He has immense power potential but he doesn’t sell out for home runs and focuses on hitting the ball hard and using the whole field. He has a patient approach but also has swing-and-miss to his game due to a lack of experience as opposed to any major mechanical flaws. Rodriguez reportedly has solid makeup and is a hard worker, all things that can help a prospect maximize their tools.

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Really looking forward to Aaron Burr interviewing Billy Hamilton.

Jason Vargas being interviewed by John Jay makes me happy. pic.twitter.com/oko6HoCkCy

— Justin Mason (@JustinMasonFWFB) April 14, 2019

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