Welcome back to my annual off-season series that has a quick-and-dirty review of all 30 minor league systems around baseball. This feature began way back in 2008.

The Texas Rangers

If you were perusing the series back in late 2013, you would have read this:

The Sleeper: Odubel Herrera, 2B: An offensive-minded infielder, Herrera impressed me with his offensive potential in 2012. Unfortunately, he found Double-A to be more of a challenge and the 21-year-old finished the year back in High-A ball after being passed on the depth chart by fellow middle infield prospects Odor and Luis Sardinas. The 2014 season will be a key one for Herrera, who needs to avoid getting completely lost in the shuffle.

Now on to the new stuff:

First Taste of The Show: Ronald Guzman, 1B: The Rangers invested quite heavily in both Nomar Mazara and Guzman during the 2011 international free agency and both made good on their potential… with Guzman taking a little longer to develop. He has a huge frame that generates significant raw power but struggles to reach that pop in game situations. He’s still polishing his eye at plate and produced a modest 33-121 BB-K rate in his big league debut.

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1/15/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Check the new Perfect Team mode Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Producer/Co-Host
• @jasoncollette – In Spirit
• @iankahn4 – Guest

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Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles

• DJ LeMahieu to the Yankees (3:50)
• Jed Lowrie to the Mets (13:08)

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It’s time to really get for the 2019 fantasy season and start and release out a set of hitter rankings to nitpick. In all fairness, some of the following projections need to be blown up. Normally, I just average several projections and use them for my fantasy values with great success. With a ‘wisdom of the crowd’ approach, I usually make sure one extreme value, high or low, doesn’t dominate my decision.

Some people get on me for just following these projections. Generally, I do follow them but just as a starting point. As I’ve shown this last week, I add in my own adjustments as I see fit into the baseline values. While Steamer has been out for a few months, other projections are now becoming available. Today, I just wanted to compare them to see who are some of the more divisive players.

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1/14/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @pitcherlist – Co-Host/Producer

GET THE SLEEPER & THE BUST T-SHIRT FROM ROTOWEAR!

SPs We Like Outside the Top 50:

• NFBC ADP (set to 12/25/18 for the start date to follow along)

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My last few articles have been deep dives on hitters who I felt may need their projection adjusted. Today, I’m going through the last few. Remember, this analysis is focused on the player’s talent projection changing and not on playing time.

Kyle Tucker (220nd in NFBC ADP)

I knew Tucker would make this list before the list ever existed. The 22-year-old flew through the minors and just destroyed AAA with a .332/.400/.590 triple slash line last season. Once he got the majors, the results stunk with him hitting .141/.236 /.203 in just 72 plate appearances.

And now the xStats come to his rescue since he was extremely unlucky with his batted balls. Here are his various actual and expected values.

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Welcome back to my annual off-season series that has a quick-and-dirty review of all 30 minor league systems around baseball. This feature began way back in 2008.

The Los Angeles Angels

First Taste of The Show: Jaime Barria, RHP: Barria was a godsend for the Angels’ rotation in 2018. He provided them with almost 130 innings of solid performance — owed almost exclusively to his slider… and a little luck. While he struggled with fastball command at times, Barria flashed above-average control at times, poise and that dangerous breaking ball. Going forward into 2019, he’ll want to try and keep more balls on the ground while spotting his fastball better and continuing to polish his changeup. He’s probably a stretch at anything more than a No. 4 starter but it’s possible he could settle into a mid-rotation innings-eater if he can make good on the above items.

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A few days ago, I did a deep dive on several hitters I felt that I needed to personally adjust their projection. Today, I’m going through a few more. This analysis is focused on the player’s talent profile changing and not on playing time.

Paul DeJong (NFBC ADP of 191st)

The reason Dejong popped up on my radar was his broken hand from mid-May to early July. It seems like he may have returned a little too early and his results suffered.

Month: OPS
Apr: .866
May: .728
June: DNP
July: .589
Aug: .726
Sep: .777

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Ryan O’Hearn – Royals | First Base, 329th

O’Hearn gives me a bit of a Matt Olson vibe after a tremendous 44-game sample in the majors last year during which he hit .262/.353/.597 with 12 HR in 170 PA. It’s not a perfect comp as Olson was off the charts in a 53-game run back in 2017 (.259/.352/.651, 24!! HR in 216 PA), but O’Hearn also won’t cost what Olson did after his second half debut. Olson went 124th on average and peaked as high as 71st while O’Hearn has peaked at 268th and probably won’t push into the top 200 even with a surge.

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The Back Problem

Full disclosure, I am a huge Los Angeles Dodgers homer, so it pains me to write this article, but it has to be done. Clayton Kershaw won’t be a top 25 starting pitcher in 2019, despite his tenacity, drive, and historical value. Whether people realize it or not, he was not a top 20 pitcher in 2018. Kershaw’s well-known diagnosis of herniated discs that he’s battled for several years and a physiologic phenomenon known as pain inhibition will limit his innings and his production. Here is the simple version.

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1/10/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Producer/Co-Host
• @jeffwzimmerman – Guest

GET THE SLEEPER & THE BUST T-SHIRT FROM ROTOWEAR!

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles

• Yasmani Grandal to the Brewers (2:00)
• Brian Dozier to the Nationals (11:40)

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