The NFBC kicked off their Memorial Day 2nd Chance leagues last night with three drafts completed and we now have some average draft position (ADP) data to digest. I have my 2CL (is that a cool abbreviation for “2nd Chance League”?) this Friday evening and I’ll be streaming it live on Twitch if you have any interest in watching it. I want to dive in on the biggest fallers here today with some caveats. Or at least one major caveat: my cutoff is the first 15 rounds.

I want to see who is still be taken with some expectation of performance while sustaining a major fall in their cost. The actual biggest droppers without limits are the obvious injury guys. The single biggest fall from the spring Rotowire Online Championship leagues (12-team format to stay consistent with the 2CLs) is Travis Shaw who has the double whammy of injury and severe underperformance. He’s gone from the 95th player chosen on average to the 362nd last night, a colossal 267-pick drop. Miguel Andujar (347th), Jameson Taillon (312th), Luis Severino (280th), and Nathan Eovaldi (390th) are also unsurprisingly amongst the nine players with a 200+ pick dip.

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Angels

• The lineup was getting into a routine until Andrelton Simmons busted up his ankle and headed to the IL. Some of the regulars moved around with Lis Rengifo taking over the second base duties and hitting at the bottom of the lineup.
• Albert Pujols has started three of the last six games at first base with Jared Walsh the other three times. Pujols may already be wearing down.

Astros

• A once steady lineup has seen some changes with George Springer dealing with a bad back and Jose Altuve out with a strained hamstring. Aledmys Diaz (.279/.313/.512) and Jake Marisnick (.284/.344/.545) have performed decently in their absence.
• It seems that Tyler White (.643 OPS) was sitting more with Josh Reddick (.845 OPS) being the DH until Springer got hurt. When Springer returns, White will likely head back to the bench.

Athletics

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5/23/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 20, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER20!

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• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer
• @glenncolton1 – Guest

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**JOIN THE NFBC MEMORIAL DAY 2ND CHANCE LEAGUES**

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As we wind down the second month of the season, stat lines are beginning to take shape and we certainly feel like we know more about how the season will unfold. There are definitely some things happening early on that you can put some weight into, but we still have four months left in the season, too, meaning a lot will still change.

Through May last year, Zack Wheeler had a 5.40 ERA, Luis Castillo was at 5.49, Jameson Taillon was at 4.53, and Masahiro Tanaka was at 4.62. German Marquez was at 4.21, but that would balloon to 5.53 five starts later and of course we know that from there, he absolutely went off. Afterthoughts like Mike Minor, Danny Duffy, Mike Fiers, Derek Holland, Lance Lynn and even Alex Cobb all had ERAs north of 5.00 and were left for dead through May before finding extended periods of fantasy relevance throughout the summer. Minor was downright all-formats viable from June on.

Let’s look at some of the biggest strugglers through two months and discuss what the future might have in store for them.

(in descending order by ERA)

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The first step is admitting you have a problem:

Remember Kelvim Escobar? Used to draft him yearly hoping for health. Gregory, Jorge, Placido… I'm a full-blown Polancist. Fan of all 3.

— Paul Sporer (@sporer) May 22, 2019

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5/21/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 20, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER20!

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• @sporer – Host

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**JOIN THE NFBC MEMORIAL DAY 2ND CHANCE LEAGUES**

• Houston (2:05)
• Kansas City (22:20)
• LA Angels (26:53)
• LA Dodgers (40:22)
• Miami (59:33)

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In Tout Wars this year, have been graced with four suspect closers but they’ve caused me to ponder how to handle the “riches”. The issue is that they are not stable and I’d not be surprised if all four were out of a job next month. I polled my Twitter followers to see which one they had the most faith in.

I have the following four closers in @ToutWars. Who do you think will have the most Saves at your season's end?

— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) April 24, 2019

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Find someone that loves you as much as Franmil Reyes loves his bat:

and they say true love doesn't exist 😂 pic.twitter.com/WbCTKii3W9

— MLB GIFS (@MLBGIFs) May 21, 2019

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5/20/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

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• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Producer/Co-Host

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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS, INJURIES, RUMORS

• David Price back
  • Hyun-Jin Ryu in SC lgs
• Eloy Jimenez possibly back
• Giancarlo Stanton cleared for rehab
  • Him & Aaron Judge in SC lgs

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With FAAB-ageddon over, it’s time to see who were the most dropped players in the 38 NFBC Main Event leagues.

Injury

• Jonathan Loaisiga (32): Shoulder issues have him out at least two months.
• Miguel Andujar (29): Out for the season with shoulder surgery.
• Anibal Sanchez (18): All ready barely startable and the injury made him expendable.
• David Robertson (18): Non-closer on the IL is worthless.
• Jed Lowrie (17): Bum knee and hamstring.

Demoted

• Teoscar Hernandez (22): I was using him as a spot starter on a couple of my teams hoping he’d get hot. It was nice to have the Blue Jays to make the decision to move on for me.
• Jeimer Candelario (20): Another borderline talent coming into the season who was sent down.

Note: In “The Process”, we wrote: “Any major leaguer with an OPS below .635 looks to be below average and could be replaceable.” Candelario was at .573 and Hernandez was at .562. The current low OPS list (min 100 PA) is littered with hitters who have been demoted (Justin Bour and Mallex Smith) or “injured” (Travis Shaw and Ender Inciarte). Any player under a .635 OPS and especially a .600 OPS could be at risk for losing their job.

• Nick Margevicius (16): Optioned to the minors with his 4.96 ERA and matching ERA estimators.
• Delino DeShields (14): A .605 OPS (see the above Note).
• Garrett Hampson (14): A .493 OPS (see the above Note).
• A.J. Minter (13): BS + L = 5. W + HLD + SV = 4. 9.32 ERA. Not the numbers a team wants from their closer.
• Kelvin Gutierrez (11): Nicky Lopez gets the call, Gutierrez heads down.

Other

• Francisco Cervelli (17): He’s not hitting (.505) and losing playing time to Elias Diaz (.537 OPS). It’s a pillow fight between these two.
• Aledmys Diaz (16): He could have been placed under the Injury heading since a hamstring issue may bench him some this week. And Jose Altuve may be back at the week’s end killing all of Diaz’s current fantasy value.
• Nick Kingham (15): He was demoted mid-week to the bullpen but now he may be starting on Wednesday.
• Brandon Kintzler (14): This Saves grab didn’t pan out.
• Derek Holland (14): Moved to the bullpen after struggling (7.36 ERA).
• Ryan O’Hearn (13): While his .648 OPS is above the demotion line, he’s useless to fantasy owners.
• Erik Swanson (13): Nine runs in three innings in his last start. He can’t even be streamed at this point.
• Eric Thames (12): He’s played in 18 games this month and started in only nine of them. The results (.189/.434/.270) are Joey Votto-ish.
• Austin Hedges (11): There are even a baseline catcher hitting thresholds and a .531 OPS doesn’t cut it.
• John Means (11): One start this week at Colorado. A reasonable drop but might be a cheap add later if he gets pounded.
• Julio Urias (11): Administrative leave for domestic battery.
• Junior Guerra (11):’He’s got a couple of Saves but Josh Hader looks to be the closer.
• Lou Trivino (11): Some owners were slow at dropping Trivino after picking him up when Blake Treinen had an injury scare.
• Emilio Pagan (10): Not the official closer but might get 10 Saves with elite counting stats (13.5 K/9, 0.68 WHP, and 0.61 ERA).
• Ian Kennedy (10): Another potential closer in which some owners were tired of holding on to.
• Jackie Bradley Jr. (10): A .421 OPS
• Jeremy Hellickson (10): Owners who took the Hellickson two-step were rewarded with a 4 K’s, 2.13 WHIP, and 9.00 ERA. Congrats.
• Trevor Cahill (10): I was looking to add Cahill when possible this past FAAB period. While I’m not keen on his matchup this week (home versus Minnesota), he has a nice two-step at Oakland and at Seattle next week.

Here are the players dropped in five or more leagues.