Welcome back to my annual off-season series that has a quick-and-dirty review of all 30 minor league systems around baseball. This feature began way back in 2008.

If you were perusing this series last year you would have read:

The Riser: Garrett Hampson, MIF: As outlined above, the Rockies organization is flush with infield prospects and Hampson deserves to be included in that group even if you probably haven’t heard of him. A third round pick out of Long Beach State in 2016 (the same place the Rockies found Troy Tulowitzki), this young infielder has shown a wide range of skills as a pro. After a strong debut in 2016, he’s had nearly identical success in ’17 at high-A ball. He’s hitting .323 with an .838 OPS and 51 steals in 65 attempts. Hampson, 22, doesn’t display a ton of pop but he sprays the ball all over the field and understands his strengths and weaknesses. He should develop into an impact baserunner and table-setter for the Rockies’ young power hitters.

Now on to the new stuff:

The Draft Pick: Grant Lavigne, 1B: Advanced for a cold-weather prep prospect, Lavigne dominated in his first taste of pro debut. But that strong debut comes with some caveats. He benefited from a .410 BABIP and a ground-ball heavy output. As a hulking first base prospect, he’s not going to sustain that kind of average on balls in play, nor should he be hitting the ball on the ground. The good news is that he has a great eye (45-40 BB-K rate) and doesn’t strike out much for a power hitter. I’m curious to see how Lavigne handles his first taste of full-season ball but I’m cautiously optimistic.

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Yesterday, I discussed seven of last year’s breakouts and concluded with a verdict on whether I expect each to hold onto at least 80% of their 2018 end of season (EOS) dollar value this year. Today, I will discuss nine of 2018’s busts and conclude each blurb with a decision on whether they are likely to rebound.

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3/5/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 20, the best baseball strategy game ever made – PRE-ORDERS AVAILABLE NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms for the March 22nd release! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER20!

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GET THE SLEEPER & THE BUST T-SHIRT FROM ROTOWEAR!

TGFBI Check-In (1:40)

• What round are y’all in?
• How are the teams looking?
• Favorite pick of yours?

About In This League:

• Podcast
• 99 Debates book

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I’m going to say something that hasn’t been said enough this off-season.

There is a lot of starting pitcher depth this year.

That may be a bit of a surprise given the constant emphasis on getting aces early or leaving the first seven or eight rounds with three starters, but with every mock and real draft I’ve done, I’ve found myself with quality arms left on my queue in the final rounds.

You’re targeting most of these names already, maybe even all of them. At the very least, these ten arms should serve as a reminder that you do not need to chase elite arms early as there are plenty fewer impact bats left in the late rounds than quality arms.

I’ll be using Fantasy Pros’ aggregate ADP to gather the names past pick #400 and despite their price of “free” in standard leagues, these pitchers deserve heavy consideration in the final rounds.

Merrill Kelly (Arizona Diamondbacks, ADP #409) – This cheap price for Kelly is expecting his floor, while not embracing the possibility of his ceiling – a sub 3.70 ERA with a decent WHIP and a 20%+ strikeout rate. The Diamondbacks are going to let Kelly fly for as many innings as they can, especially when he has a lock on a rotation spot. It’s hard to find an arm with strikeout upside and a strong volume of frames without toxic ratios and I wouldn’t be surprised if the first person who owns Kelly retains him through the full year.

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You know it is baseball season, when I am excited for my boy, The Gardener:

Here are the three swinging strikes Kyle Gibson got to K the side in the top of the 2nd. pic.twitter.com/Jq36YFXxJa

— Alex Fast (@AlexFast8) March 4, 2019

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Catcher is so brutal. As if it couldn’t get worse, Salvador Perez is now out for the year. I’m not even sure everyone I listed is real.

Podcasts on C: J&J, Sporer Solo

• What’s your strategy at C in 1-C leagues v. 2-C leagues?
• How do you play it in shallow (10-12) v. deep (15)?
• Who’s your favorite gamble outside of my top 15?

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This past Saturday night I endured Phoenix’s sun and mid-70’s temperatures (Ed. note: ENDURED?? More like basked in!!!) to participate in this year’s AL LABR acution. While I had been in the room before to help Eno Sarris out, it was my first time under the gun. The first item I noticed was that everyone in the room (besides Eno … don’t remind him, it’s a sore subject) had won at least one major industry league (Tout Wars or LABR) and most multiple times. Almost immediately I thought of this line from Rounders:

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Welcome back to my annual off-season series that has a quick-and-dirty review of all 30 minor league systems around baseball. This feature began way back in 2008.

*I’m going to do a little something different with the Royals and look at their fascinating approach for the 2018 draft, which focused on advanced college arms in an effort to infuse some quick value back into a floundering farm system. After all, their focus on drafting prep pitchers was pretty much an unmitigated disaster.

If you were perusing this series last year you would have read:

The Sleeper: Emmanuel Rivera, 3B: Rivera could eventually turn out to be a steal as a former 19th round pick. He has a chance to be a special player on defence at the hot corner and he could develop just enough offensive skill to be an everyday player. He needs to become a little more patient at the plate which could help him hit for a better average and find more balls to drive with authority. The 21-year-old prospect will receive a bigger test as he moves up to high-A ball in 2018.

Now on to the new stuff:

The Draft Pick: Brady Singer, RHP: Singer was a highly-respected amateur and a sure fire 2018 first rounder (not to mention a second rounder out of high school). He didn’t pitch after signing with the Royals but got into game action after the season ended in the fall instructional league. Singer struggles with his fastball command but does a nice job working down in the zone and should generate a healthy number of ground-ball outs. He showed a promising breaking ball in instructs (It’s said to be a slider but I’ve seen some that look more like tight curves) but he needs a reliable third offering. I see more of a mid-rotation starter here than a top guy because hitters look pretty comfortable against him.

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Baseball is back! The Roto Riteup is back! Insane baseball related GIFs are back!

Tanner Anderson vs. John Cleese (Ministry of Silly Walks), Leg Lift/Mechanics.

h/t @sung_minkim https://t.co/AjCXCTlEas pic.twitter.com/5KfdwSIaQU

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 4, 2019

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