Week 18 FAAB Projections

As MLB creeps closer to the trade deadline, a few interesting names have popped up as must adds in ll formats. Most could have been owned for little of nothing last week but now the procrastination tax must be paid.

The projection guidelines:

  • The ownership rates are from CBS since they have some quickdraw waiver wire leagues where players can be picked up at any time.
  • The FAAB estimates are based on the 2018 15-team mixed NFBC leagues which used a $1000 FAAB budget. Owners are going to need to convert these values to their own league.
  • The ownership values were taken from Saturday and lots can happen in between when they publish and FAAB bids run.
  • Only players owned in 50% or fewer of CBS leagues are examined.
Week 18 Projected Hitter FAAB
Name Previous Ownership% Current Ownership% Change% Cost
Harold Castro SS | DET 0% 2% 2% $12
Austin Dean LF | MIA 0% 1% 1% $12
Erik Gonzalez 2B | PIT 0% 1% 1% $12
Matt Wieters C | STL 3% 6% 3% $13
Mike Yastrzemski RF | SF 3% 5% 2% $13
Victor Caratini C | CHC 3% 5% 2% $13
Mike Brosseau 3B | TB 4% 17% 13% $27
Mark Canha CF | OAK 4% 7% 3% $13
Tyler Naquin RF | CLE 4% 6% 2% $13
Brandon Crawford SS | SF 6% 10% 4% $14
Alex Dickerson LF | SF 8% 11% 3% $14
Isan Diaz 2B | MIA 8% 10% 2% $13
Travis d’Arnaud C | TB 9% 31% 22% $56
Manuel Margot CF | SD 9% 13% 4% $15
Robel Garcia 2B | CHC 9% 11% 2% $14
Tyler O’Neill RF | STL 12% 36% 24% $66
Tony Wolters C | COL 14% 15% 1% $15
Gavin Lux SS | LAD 15% 18% 3% $16
Nate Lowe 1B | TB 20% 40% 20% $58
Luis Robert CF | CHW 24% 32% 8% $28
Kurt Suzuki C | WAS 28% 29% 1% $22
Enrique Hernandez CF | LAD 29% 31% 2% $23
Brandon Belt 1B | SF 30% 32% 2% $24
Danny Santana LF | TEX 33% 52% 19% $67
Freddy Galvis SS | TOR 36% 37% 1% $28
Garrett Cooper LF | MIA 39% 55% 16% $64
Jesus Aguilar 1B | MIL 39% 42% 3% $33
Ryan McMahon 1B | COL 40% 43% 3% $34
Luis Urias 2B | SD 40% 43% 3% $34
Jorge Alfaro C | MIA 43% 45% 2% $35
Renato Nunez 3B | BAL 43% 45% 2% $35
Roberto Perez C | CLE 48% 61% 13% $66
Andrelton Simmons SS | LAA 50% 53% 3% $44
Brett Gardner LF | NYY 50% 53% 3% $44
  • Travis d’Arnaud, Nathaniel Lowe, and Michael Brosseau: These three players point to the importance of regularly checking MLB lineups. d’Arnaud slid his way into the Rays lineup and was getting extra at-bats at first and DH. Even if he wasn’t hitting great for a catcher, those extra at-bats were huge. No one had Brosseau on their radar but since being called up, he has a .952 OPS. He’s is losing some playing time with Lowe and Wendle healthy but I wonder how long the Rays can continue to play Wendle and his .548 OPS. And Lowe silently slipped back on the MLB squad and is hitting .302/.400/.721 since returning.
  • Tyler O’Neill: I’ve missed the current O’Neill breakout because he sets off a major red flag, he can’t hit fastballs (15 SwStr%). His .303 AVG looks great but it has been supported but .455 BABIP. He’s a low AVG, high ISO bat going forward.
  • Garrett Cooper and Danny Santana: These two unsexy names have posted respectable seasons and look to regulars in all fantasy lineups.
  • Mark Canha and Manual Margot: Both are meeting the two requirements for a fantasy breakout, playing every day and hitting. This will be the last week to get them on the cheap.
Week 18 Projected Pitcher FAAB
Name Previous Ownership% Current Ownership% Change% Cost
Alec Mills RP | CHC 0% 2% 2% $10
Chad Sobotka RP | ATL 0% 1% 1% $10
Rogelio Armenteros SP | HOU 1% 3% 2% $10
Nick Wittgren RP | CLE 2% 3% 1% $14
Daniel Hudson RP | TOR 3% 8% 5% $16
Andres Munoz RP | SD 4% 12% 8% $20
Dario Agrazal SP | PIT 5% 11% 6% $11
Johnny Cueto SP | SF 5% 6% 1% $10
Tyler Beede SP | SF 6% 15% 9% $13
Austin Voth SP | WAS 6% 12% 6% $12
Sam Dyson RP | SF 6% 7% 1% $14
Aaron Bummer RP | CHW 7% 9% 2% $15
Daniel Ponce de Leon RP | STL 8% 55% 47% $96
Matt Harvey SP | LAA 8% 9% 1% $10
Josh James SP | HOU 15% 20% 5% $18
Felix Pena SP | LAA 16% 22% 6% $12
Jake Junis SP | KC 26% 31% 5% $13
Ryan Yarbrough RP | TB 27% 35% 8% $15
Homer Bailey SP | OAK 28% 37% 9% $16
Alex Young SP | ARI 29% 50% 21% $32
Gio Gonzalez SP | MIL 30% 32% 2% $13
Kevin Gausman SP | ATL 30% 31% 1% $13
Brandon Workman RP | BOS 31% 35% 4% $21
Emilio Pagan RP | TB 32% 36% 4% $21
Adam Wainwright SP | STL 33% 40% 7% $16
Danny Salazar SP | CLE 35% 42% 7% $25
Jeff Samardzija SP | SF 39% 50% 11% $21
Chase Anderson SP | MIL 39% 44% 5% $16
Brad Keller RP | KC 47% 50% 3% $17
CC Sabathia SP | NYY 50% 54% 4% $18
  • Daniel Ponce de Leon: The first wallet buster in a while. For teams in need of pitching, rarely does a 10.4 K/9, 2.80 ERA starter just appear on the waiver wire. Some regression should be expected from him with his ERA estimators at 4.00.
  • Tyler Beede: Beede has come back with a slider and it has helped some. It’s more important he has dropped his walk from 7.0 BB/9 to 1.3 BB/9.
  • Alex Young: It’s easy to post a 0.96 ERA with a 100% LOB%. Regression will be coming hard with his ERA estimators in the 4.00 to 4.50 range.
  • Austin Voth: I’d recommend Voth but it looks like he’s headed to the IL.
  • Rogelio Armenteros: His price could jump a ton depending on how his start goes today.

Reliever rankings (Saves leaning)

  1. Brandon Workman
  2. Emilio Pagan
  3. Daniel Hudson
  4. Aaron Bummer
  5. Sam Dyson
  6. Andes Munoz
  7. Nick Wittgren
  8. Josh James
  9. Danny Salazar (if in the bullpen)
  10. Chad Sobotka
2019 Week 17 FAAB Results
Add Avg Bid Leagues (38)
Andrew Cashner $34 8
Daniel Ponce de Leon $26 9
Carlos Carrasco $25 6
Chris Bassitt $23 5
Felix Pena $18 5
Steven Matz $16 5
Diego Castillo $15 5
Delino DeShields $15 6
Tyler O’Neill $13 7
Alex Young $12 7
Mike Brosseau $12 30
Josh James $12 12
Homer Bailey $10 10
Zach Plesac $10 9
Robel Garcia $10 7
Victor Reyes $9 5
Scott Oberg $9 5
Bryse Wilson $9 5
Phillip Ervin $8 13
Daniel Hudson $8 26
Christin Stewart $8 5
Joe Jimenez $7 8
Adam Plutko $6 23
Mike Yastrzemski $6 5
Ryan Zimmerman $6 11
Danny Salazar $6 14
Framber Valdez $6 7
Austin Slater $6 10
Luis Arraez $6 7
Pablo Sandoval $5 14
Greg Allen $5 9
Aaron Bummer $5 7
Franklin Barreto $5 5
Matt Wieters $5 25
Bubba Starling $5 8
Jose Peraza $5 7
Brad Keller $5 7
Mark Canha $4 8
Sam Dyson $4 8
Daniel Mengden $4 8
Collin McHugh $4 5
Jalen Beeks $4 8
Mitch Keller $4 9
Martin Maldonado $4 6
Curt Casali $3 7
Mychal Givens $3 7
Austin Voth $3 8
Cal Quantrill $3 14
Dario Agrazal $3 5
Vince Velasquez $2 5
Tyler Beede $2 8
Nick Anderson $2 8
Colin Poche $2 5
Adrian Houser $2 5
Mike Zunino $2 5
Chris Herrmann $2 9
Brandon Crawford $1 5

 

2018 Week 18 FAAB Results
Add Avg Bid Leagues (34)
Robert Gsellman $51 21
Kelvin Herrera $49 7
Garrett Hampson $33 28
Brad Brach $20 5
Seth Lugo $18 7
Drew Pomeranz $18 9
John Gant $18 5
Evan Longoria $16 8
Ryan Tepera $16 8
Steve Pearce $15 6
Pedro Strop $15 17
Eric Lauer $15 5
Robinson Cano $14 12
Joey Wendle $14 12
Felix Pena $14 12
Dexter Fowler $11 10
Derek Holland $10 5
Cameron Maybin $10 8
Carl Edwards Jr. $10 6
Ronald Guzman $9 5
Edwin Jackson $9 5
Jose Urena $8 6
Nick Tropeano $7 10
Aledmys Diaz $7 5
Manny Pina $7 9
Max Fried $7 22
Clay Buchholz $7 10
Lucas Giolito $6 9
Carlos Gomez $6 5
Brian Goodwin $6 14
James Shields $5 5
Wade Miley $5 5
Luis Cessa $5 7
Leury Garcia $5 5
Omar Narvaez $4 6
Chad Pinder $3 6
Collin McHugh $2 6
Craig Stammen $2 9

We hoped you liked reading Week 18 FAAB Projections by Jeff Zimmerman!

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Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first two seasons in Tout Wars, he's won the H2H league and mixed auction league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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