The juiced ball is for real:

wow the @statcast numbers on this are INSANE pic.twitter.com/xKpr3kNEAg

— Cut4 (@Cut4) April 20, 2019

On the Agenda:
1. Blue Jay Blues
2. Various News and Notes
3. Streaming Pitching Options

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I believe there are some diamonds in the rough available this week. It’s tough to know who exactly. Will Michael Chavis grab Bostons second base job? Is Scott Kingery going to play full time? Will one of Robert Stephenson, Trevor Hildenberger, Ryan Pressly or Diego Castilla get Saves? Maybe one or two.

As usual, I use ownership rates from CBS since some of their leagues are quickdraw leagues where players can be picked up at any time. The FAAB estimates are based off 15-team mixed NFBC leagues with $1000 FAAB. First, Here are the pitchers who were owned in fewer than 50% of leagues and have seen the highest jumps in ownership.

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Angels

• They are getting decimated by injuries and ineffectiveness. Since Mike Trout has returned, he’s been the DH with Albert Pujols (.735 OPS) playing first base and Justin Bour (.628 OPS) on the bench.
• Tommy La Stella has secured the second base job by hitting a decent .226/.328/.472. The batting average may be a drag, he’s a perfect sub in OBP leagues.
• Brian Goodwin (.900) seems to have forced himself into the left field job while Justin Upton is on the DL and Peter Bourjos (.243 OPS) is struggling.
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4/19/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

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• @sporer – Host
• @pitcherlist – Co-Host/Producer

GET THE SLEEPER & THE BUST T-SHIRT FROM ROTOWEAR!

• Sonny Gray [2:10]
• Luke Weaver [12:08]

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4/18/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 20, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER20!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

GET THE SLEEPER & THE BUST T-SHIRT FROM ROTOWEAR!

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Podcast: Play in new window | Download

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It’s time to update the rankings. This is an especially tough ranking this early into the season because we have 3-4 starts for most guys and I don’t want to overreact… or underreact for that matter. My thoughts from March on these guys still carries a lot of weight, but factors like velocity, pitch mix, and role can influence a big change. The performances carry weight, too, but I try to temper what I’ll do based on three starts.

Pay attention to the tier! If I didn’t rank someone as high as you thought I should, but they are still a must or usually start, then it’s probably not worth freaking out too much. Those tiers mean they are in the rotation pretty much all the time. I’m open to debating slotting, too, but worrying about a 4-spot difference between two guys in the same tier is probably a waste of time. I’ll have some more extensive notes on a host of big movers coming soon (likely early next week as I probably won’t have time on Friday).

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After going over the pitchers who changed their velocity from 2018 to 2019, the pitchers who have seen changes this year get highlighted today. For the first week or so, pitchers who saw major adjustments were in the crosshairs of the fantasy community. But who from that list kept the changes? A pitcher’s talent shouldn’t get anchored to one early-season report. It’s time to dive in.

About the data

• I use the fastball’s average spin rate and velocity along with the pitcher’s overall Zone% to come up in the Injury metric. With spin rate, I’ve seen pitchers try to keep up their velocity while dealing with an injury and the pitch’s spin changes. As for Zone%, if a pitcher is having issues finding the plate, they may have something mechanically wrong.
• The Injury value ranges from a -100 (several negative forces are at work) to +100 (major improvements).
• A pitcher can have more than one fastball in the table
• When examining the 2019 data, I’m comparing velocities from the past week to fastballs thrown before this past week.
• All the numbers are available in this overall spreadsheet.

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It’s that time to dive into the 38 NFBC Main Events to see who is being dropped in 10 or more leagues and why.

Injury

• Dellin Betances (13): He’s out until late May with a shoulder injury.
• Ronald Guzman (13): He’ll be on the IL for two to three weeks with an injured hamstring. For teams in need of hitting, he might be worth a stash.
• Franchy Cordero (12): Cordero was due for some regression with his .300 AVG fuel up by a .556 BABIP and down by a 35% K%. It’s just tough to place a finger on his true talent with on the time on the IL.

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A live look at how my fantasy season is going:

This sums up what kind of night it's been for the Mets…. pic.twitter.com/ll3twphc3f

— Cut4 (@Cut4) April 17, 2019

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