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Future Fantasy Studs from the 2019 Draft

Today, we’re dropping in unannounced on some of the 2019 draft picks to see how they’re acclimatizing to pro baseball. In the process, we’ll have some thoughts on when they should be targeted in your dynasty or keeper fantasy leagues based on their MLB ETA. Keep in mind that a strong start to pro ball is encouraging but does not always guarantee future success (the opposite is also true). So this is just the first step in a long journey.

*Prior to the 2019 amateur draft, I published a mock draft based on where I thought the prospects should go based on a review of video, statistical information, and other scouting reports (as opposed to most mock drafts that attempt to accurately predict where players are going). I’m including a link to that piece as it’s referenced below on a number of occasions).

Adley Rutschman, C, Orioles:
2020 LEVEL: High-A
MLB ETA: 2022

The first overall pick of the draft took some time before making his pro debut so he’s only played in 11 games so far, split between Rookie ball and Short-Season A-ball. It’s been a slow start for the switch-hitting catcher as he’s hitting just .158 through 38 at-bats. The good news is that he’s had some bad luck on balls in play at the higher level. He also has a decent strikeout rate (13.5% K-rate) while also showing patience (12% BB-rate). Rutschman is looking good defensively and has thrown out 57% of base runners in seven attempts.

Andrew Vaughn, 1B, White Sox:
2020 LEVEL: Double-A
MLB ETA: 2021

I personally advocated for Vaughn first overall but he instead went third overall to Chicago. And the White Sox have done what the White Sox tend to do far too often. They’ve pushed a prospect extremely aggressively – for reasons that remain unclear. Now, Vaughn has done OK. He has an .898 OPS overall and a BB-K rate of 16-24 in 30 games over three levels. But his .798 OPS in 23 Low-A games was OK-not-great but he was recently pushed up to High-A ball nonetheless. My guess is that the front office wants to get the young core together as quickly as possible since the AL Central is hardly the AL East so you can conceivably rebuild and win the division at the same time.

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Roto Riteup: August 5, 2019

Monday’s be like:

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Sunday Night Waiver Wire & FAAB Chat

7:17
Jeff Zimmerman: Sorry about the change in time. It has been a busy day

7:17
Jeff Zimmerman: Here the bids in Tour Wars this week (15 team mixed)

7:17
Jeff Zimmerman: Auction

7:17
Jeff Zimmerman: ABass: 99
ABradley: 83
IDiaz: 73
JDDavis: 49
KNewman: 41
DMay: 33
VCaratini: 28
AAquino: 23
INova: 18
JarGarcia: 17
TGuerrero: 17
DanNorris: 14
AKittredge: 12
JRogers: 12
CMaybin: 12
JLyles: 11
BTreinen: 11
BStarling: 10
YGomes: 8
MThaiss: 6
TGonsolin: 5
TDemeritte: 3
TGrisham: 3
SArmstrong: 2
EFedde: 2
TThornton: 2
JHicks: 1
MAdams: 1
JNaylor: 1
TShaw: 1
RGrichuk: 1

7:17
Jeff Zimmerman: Draft

7:18
Jeff Zimmerman: ABradley: 104
ASanchez: 70
CCuthbert: 54
IDiaz: 45
SLugo: 33
DCease: 32
SPiscotty: 30
DMay: 28
CDickerson: 23
MThaiss: 19
TGonsolin: 17
VCaratini: 12
AlYoung: 11
JArrieta: 11
ANola: 7
MTauchman: 6
MWacha: 4
APujols: 4
DFisher: 4
HRamirez: 4
PSeverino: 2
LRobert: 1
GLux: 1
CMaybin: 0
AAvila: 0

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AL Lineup Analysis (8/3/19)

Angels

Astros

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Week 20 FAAB Projections

Life has come at me hard the last couple of days and I’m actually happy to spend some time writing about baseball as a distraction. The problem is that I need to prioritize my efforts. I’ve decided to just post the projected values (no analysis) and instead focus on my efforts on my weekly AL Lineups article. If I have the time and effort later today, I may come back and add some more details.

The projection guidelines:

  • The ownership rates are from CBS since they have some quickdraw waiver wire leagues where players can be picked up at any time.
  • The FAAB estimates are based on the 2018 15-team mixed NFBC leagues which used a $1000 FAAB budget. Owners are going to need to convert these values to their own league.
  • The ownership values were taken from Saturday and lots can happen in between when they publish and FAAB bids run.
  • Only players owned in 50% or fewer of CBS leagues are examined.

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Prospect Values Impacted by Trade Deadline Day

The dust has settled after the trade deadline storm. Or was it more of a tropical depression?

As we survey the altered landscape, we can see that a number of prospects have benefited from change? At the same time, a few prospects that changed hands saw their values hurt by their respective deals.

Let’s take a moment to review in more depth.

The Good

Joey Wentz, LHP (From Braves to Tigers): I’m a Wentz fan and this move gets him out of the logjam of pitchers in Atlanta and puts him into an organization that is trending upwards — especially in the pitching category. Detroit has amassed an impressive group of upper-level arms in its own right now and we could see a rotation in a year or two of Casey Mize, Matt Manning, Tarik Skubal and Wentz. If Matthew Boyd sticks around, who’s still only 28, it’s even better.

Joshua Rojas, UTIL (From Astros to Diamondbacks): Rojas is a name you may not be overly familiar with but he was a great late-round draft selection by the Astros, an organization that has a history of finding value in strange places. The 25-year-old can play all over the diamond so his versatility is a huge plus. And the bat is not so bad, either. He has 20 home runs in 97 Triple-A games. If you’re in a league that rewards walks, like Ottoneu, well, he has a BB-K of 55-64. And how about some steals? He’s not fast but he’s a smart baserunner and has 32 steals in 42 attempts this year. Arizona is also a pretty nice place to hit so this guy should be on your radar.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 722 – Trade Deadline Breakdown

8/1/19

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TRADE DEADLINE REVIEW

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Tigers Strengthen Farm System in Deadline Moves

Let’s take a closer look at the fantasy ramifications of the two Tigers moves.

Braves get Shane Greene

Tigers get Travis Demeritte, Joey Wentz

The Braves needed bullpen even before their blown save on Wednesday afternoon. They held on and got the win in the 10th inning, but they really attacked their bullpen with Greene joining Chris Martin and Mark Melancon as the new acquisitions. In Greene, they get a righty in the midst of his best season yet. He has a 29% K rate and 8% BB rate in his 38 innings of work. I think he’ll assume the closer’s role, pushing Luke Jackson the 7th-8th inning range. No one thinks his .178 BABIP will maintain, but he’s pitching well enough to expect him to beat his .303 career mark, too.

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Four Trades: Greinke, Dickerson, Pomeranz, & Sanchez

With so many trades going down, I’m just going to go through a few and what it means to their rest of season fantasy value

Trade 1

Zack Greinke: The Astros grabbing Greinke made all kinds of waves in the real baseball world but in the fantasy game, Greinke gets a small value boost. The deal is that he’s already a start-every-game player and he locks himself even more as one. His owners don’t have to do anything but pat themselves on the back for drafting him in the spring.

Josh Rojas: Of the players coming to the Diamondbacks, Rojas is the only one with any 2019 fantasy impact and it’s small. Alex Chamberlain has a soft spot for Rojas since he’s made the Peripheral Prospects twice. While not touted at all, he’s a nice power (15 MILB HR), speed (28 SB) threat with a good batting eye (12% BB%, 14% K%). He’ll need to be called up first but if he does, owners should take notice, and monitor his playing time.

Corbin Martin, J.B. Bukauskas, Seth Beer: No 2019 value.

Trade 2

Corey Dickerson: This trade would normally be made at the second trade deadline. The Phillies would add some outfield depth as they near the playoffs. So now, they are adding Dickerson (.931 OPS) to take Adam Haseley’s (.811 OPS) spot in left field until Jay Bruce (.825 OPS) returns from the IL.

The problem is that these three (and Bryce Harper) all bat left-handed. No obvious platoons exist. It might take a week or two to see if the trade creates anything actionable. Owners need to be watching this lineup closely to see how the playing time gets allocated.

Trade 3

Ray Black: The 29-year-old Black just throws smoke with his fastball averaging 99 mph this year. The problem with his fastball is that he doesn’t exactly know where it’s going (in the minors, his BB/9 top 9.0 several times) and when hitters do square it up, it flies for homers. In two partial major league seasons, the fastball has a 15% SwStr% and 22% GB%. Besides the fastball, he also features a slider with an 18% SwStr% and 57 GB%.

Black has had some issues staying healthy which have limited his major league chances. He’s not going to immediately slot into the closer’s role but I’d not be surprised if he does at some this season with Josh Hader going back to the fireman’s role.

Drew Pomeranz: The Giants were forced to remove Pomeranz from the rotation even though he was dominating hitters with a 10.7 K/9. The strikeouts were his only positive trait with a 4.3 BB/9 and 2.0 HR/9 helping lead to a 5.86 ERA. Most owners are just going to dismiss him but I’m intrigued to see if the Brewers tap into his potential.

One obvious change is to get rid of a pitch or two. His pathetic sinker is the obvious drop. While his change has been better this season (10% SwStr%), it has been historically bad (6% SwStr%). He could go four-seam (11% SwStr%), curve (10% SwStr%), and cutter (12% SwStr%) and be a serviceable streaming option. The Brewers added Wade Miley at the deadline last year, got him refocused, and now he’s one of the biggest surprised of 2019

Mauricio Dubon: Shelly Verougstraete covered Dubon in detail in a separate article. All I will say is don’t sleep on him one bit. I’ve been hoping he could get some major league playing time since he was with Boston. A five-tool player which will be mixed-league worthy if he could just get on the field.

Trade 4

Aaron Sanchez: Like Pomeranz, Sanchez has struggled to keep a reasonable ERA (6.07) with all the walks (4.7 BB/9) and homers (1.2 HR/9). By just logging onto his player page, I can see the first adjustment the Astros will implement, drop his s(t)inker. It’s only getting a useless 47% GB% and 5% SwStr%.

On the other hand, his four-seamer has an 8% SwStr% and a flyball inducing 35% GB%. After the Astros got rid of Gerrit Cole’s sinker, Sanchez’s sinker will some be history. Besides the sinker, his good curveball (15% SwStr%) and OK change (10% SwStr%) provide a swing-and-miss alternative to finish off batters.

It seems like Jose Urquidy is the odd man out of the Astros rotation with the additions Zack Greinke and Sanchez. If Sanchez can’t adjust and continues to struggle, don’t be surprised if Urquidy gets moved back into the rotation.

Derek Fisher: I don’t understand this pickup at all for the Jays. In 312 major plate appearances, he’s hit 10 HR, .201/.282/.367, 35% K% with 9 steals. While the being a power-speed threat is nice, he’s not much of a hitting threat. A sub-.300 OBP isn’t going to cut it in the majors. He’s Quad-A bat who may get on a hot streak once or twice during his career and become fantasy relevant.

Joe Biagini: A nice bullpen arm but has some fantasy value before the trades as the backup to Ken Giles. Now he has no value.

Cal Stevenson: Again, Shelly Verougstraete wrote him up.


Aguilar to the Rays, Creates Only Questions

The Rays and Brewers have swapped players with the Rays getting first baseman Jesus Aguilar and the Brewers adding reliever Jake Faria. Here’s my take on who gains the most value from now to end-of-season in redraft leagues.

Travis Shaw/Eric Thames: Not sure what is going on here. The Brewers are left with two left-handed bats for the first base job. I think both become two-thirds time plays with both splitting time at first and Thames playing in the outfield especially with Ryan Braun needing rest Lorenzo Cain getting banged up. Shaw could play around the infield once a week as he did before his demotion.

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