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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 727 – News and 2020 Outlooks

8/14/19

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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

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Arsenal and Skills Analysis of Available Arms

Every week for Sportsline, I write an article on available starting pitching and I lucked into a nice find. Using the criteria of owned in 60% or fewer leagues, increasing ownership, and they’ve never been profiled, Joe Ross met the criteria. I noticed Joe Ross reinvented himself as noted here by MLBDream.

Today, I going to go through some lowly owned starters (in the majors and not on the IL) and see if any have made any positive or negative changes to their repertoire to utilize for the final quarter or the season. I’m going to look at pitchers owned in 16% to 30% of Fantrax leagues (Joe Ross was at 31% ownership).

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Roto Riteup: August 14, 2019

Aristedes Aquino cannot be stopped!

 

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6 Second Half Surging Starters

A group of guys who’ve shown some improvement lately and could have more success on the horizon. Note to my deep league managers, this group is mostly available in shallower formats (all are sub-50% on FantasyPros, which blends Yahoo! and ESPN).

Jeff Samardzija | San Francisco Giants

The Shark has rediscovered his teeth this year. After an injury-riddled 10-start lost season in 2018, Samardzija was an afterthought in 2019 drafts going in the 20th round or later. He got off to a fast start in April (2.53 ERA), but then saw his HR issues return in May and June (1.9 HR/9), posting a 5.75 ERA and winding up on waiver wires across the fantasy community.

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Who is Being Dropped and Why (Week 21)

Today’s list is a weird group of players. Most should have been dropped last week once the ramifications of the trade deadline were known. Discrepancy Theory #1 is that about 20% of the owners blew off the post-trade deadline FAAB period (tough to miss this one) and finally caught up. If there was any week to be paying attention, it was the previous bidding period.

Or Theory #2 is that these owners were sheep waiting to see what other owners did with their drops. Most of the drops (e.g Tim Beckham) I would consider obvious, but maybe these owners need confirmation on making their moves. Or they use the platform’s ownership rate to see who to drop. I’m not sure if it’s wrong or right to wait a week on dropping someone. Waiting might be the correct move. It’s interesting and I’ll ponder the delay a bit more.

Also, if anyone happened to missed the last few articles, I’ve been trying to improve this article’s content. The major change is that I’m concentrating on players dropped in six to nine leagues. For now, this range seems the most useful for fantasy owners.

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Roto Riteup: August 13, 2019

Tweet of the weekend from the brilliant minds at Rotowear:

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Hidden Gems from the 2018 Draft

Today, we’re heading back to the 2018 draft to unearth some hidden gems. You’ve all likely heard about Casey Mize, and Alec Bohm, and Nolan Gorman… but who are some of the other prospects who will soon become dynasty darlings?

Shane McClanahan, LHP, Rays
Baseball America (org ranking): 11
MLB Pipeline: 10
Marc Hulet: 4

McClanahan deserves more love. As you can see above, most publications have him around the fringe of the Rays’ Top 10 prospects list. And I get it. He was a top college player — selected 31st overall — but opened his first full season in Low-A ball, which is not the most challenging level given his past pedigree. However, there were big concerns over his ability to throw consistent strikes and, well, this is the Rays — an organization that is always on the conservative side of developing prospects not named Wander Franco.

And the concern was warranted, as seen by McClanahan’s walk rate of 5.26 BB/9 in 11 appearances. After showing improvements, he was promoted to High-A ball where he was outstanding at working the strike zone. He walked just eight batters in 49.1 innings, which works out to a sparkling 1.46 BB/9 rate. The hard-throwing lefty didn’t miss quite as many bats with his new approach but it was still far better than average (from 12.57 to 10.76 K/9). McClanahan was so impressive in those nine games that he earned another promotion — this time to Double-A. In his one start to date, he posted a K-BB of 8-1 with just two hits allows in five innings. With a blazing fastball, excellent curveball, strong frame, and a tendency to induce ground-ball outs, McClanahan has all but shaken off the concerns that he may eventually end up in the bullpen.

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Sunday Night Waiver Wire & FAAB Chat

7:33
Jeff Zimmerman: Sorry for the short delay.

7:34
Jeff Zimmerman: Here are the Tout Wars mixed league bids from tonight

7:34
Jeff Zimmerman: Auction

7:34
Jeff Zimmerman: ACivale: 77
MMelancon: 73
DLaw: 61
MKeller: 54
DPeters: 27
JRoss: 23
MFoltynewicz: 23
AAvila: 22
WFont: 21
JMercer: 18
MMontgomery: 18
BDixon: 16
MZunino: 16
JArrieta: 16
ARomine: 12
JOsuna: 9
PReyes: 5
DSmeltzer: 5
JSuarez: 2
MAlbers: 2
MBeaty: 1
TLopes: 1
TPannone: 1

7:34
Jeff Zimmerman: Draft

7:34
Jeff Zimmerman: AAquino: 164
MFoltynewicz: 70
JOsuna: 49
JLyles: 47
IHapp: 38
JBerti: 38
ABass: 35
TDemeritte: 34
MMontgomery: 33
SCastro: 32
MMelancon: 27
DLaw: 23
TGrisham: 23
JVanMeter: 20
JRoss: 16
MKeller: 16
DPeters: 16
DSmeltzer: 15
WAdames: 12
EFedde: 11
YKikuchi: 9
AHouser: 5
AFrazier: 4
STravis: 3
JRogers: 2
CCulberson: 0
NCortes: 0

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Week 21 FAAB Projections

For those few owners with any FAAB left, it looks to be another interesting week of bidding with The Punisher likely getting the top bid. Besides Aristides Aquino, some other players should face a high demand with J.D. Davis and Mike Tauchman on the hitting side and Aaron Sanchez and Aaron Civale on the pitching front. Besides the top adds, check-in on several bullpens to see if there is anyone to add.

The projection guidelines:

  • The ownership rates are from CBS since they have some quickdraw waiver wire leagues where players can be picked up at any time.
  • The FAAB estimates are based on the 2018 15-team mixed NFBC leagues which used a $1000 FAAB budget. Owners are going to need to convert these values to their own league.
  • The ownership values were taken from Saturday and lots can happen in between when they publish and FAAB bids run.
  • Only players owned in 50% or fewer of CBS leagues are examined.
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Hitters to Watch

Pardon the brief intro, but I’m coming to you live from Disney World! I wanted to give you a few guys to look for on your waiver wires this weekend!

Mike Tauchman OF – NYY | 141 wRC+

With the absurd number of injuries that have struck the Yankees, it’s kind of surprising that Tauchman is just now breaking through. He got some playing time in April, but couldn’t make it happen, posting just a .177/.282/.387 line as a .211 BABIP held him back. He has become a lineup staple since the All-Star break and he’s absolutely raking. He has a .413/.471/.825 line with 6 HR and 4 SB in 70 PA and I’m sure Alex Chamberlain’s wife is tired of hearing about his crush’s numbers every night! With Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Hicks on the IL, Tauchman’s playing time should be solidified for the foreseeable future. Buy!

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