I missed you, baseball. I missed you.
Shed Long is a delight, in case you forgot pic.twitter.com/MTY7Kj3iqS
— Lookout Landing (@LookoutLanding) July 8, 2020
07/07/20
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.
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HITTING LEAGUE LEADERS
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I usually don’t worry about schedule specific details during a regular season since so much can change in a month or two. This season is only going to last a couple of months, so it has some importance. I dug through all of the National League teams trying to find some stretches to stream players. I didn’t find a bunch of one to two-week stretches but I did come to some overarching themes.
I tried to digest as much of the information as possible and I’m sure I’ve missed something obvious. I started the analysis hoping to find a list of week-by-week targets to stream and came away with a new perspective.
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| 3:00 |
: Who’s one player you were off on in a full season but are now targeting in the abbreviated season?
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| 3:01 |
: It’s more to do with the DH, but Braun
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| 3:01 |
: I thought I might like RP more but the market jumped on them.
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| 3:02 |
: Are you grabbing treinen or someone else as a speculative add?
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| 3:03 |
: No speculation but more of handcuff for my closer. If I get Diaz, I might also add Lugo.
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| 3:03 |
: Over the past 6 seasons, on average 5 closers have lost their jobs in the first two months
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Took a global pandemic for baseball to promote their best player:
https://twitter.com/lindseyadler/status/1279781582740443137?s=20
Name value is a helluva drug in the fantasy game and often leads to overvalued players going several rounds higher than comparable players. Sometimes the name value is indicative of a star-level player who has shown heights in his past that are worth betting on at a loftier pick than his would-be equal counterpart, but a lot of times it’s just an opportunity to scoop comparable skills much cheaper.
Here’s one such case at each position using The BAT X projections:
CATCHER
Yasmani Grandal 116 ADP | Projection .235 AVG, 27 HR, 71 RBI, 71 R, 2 SB
Salvador Perez 158 ADP | Projection .255, 28, 81, 62, 0
A big part of this difference is that fact that Perez missed all of 2019 due to Tommy John surgery. Prior to that, Perez put up four straight seasons of 20+ HR with strong RBI counts (for the position) and decent R totals which is exactly what Grandal has done in his last four years. In standard leagues, Perez is arguably better thanks to spiking some useful batting averages over the years while Grandal is always a drag in that position (OBP leagues are a different story as Grandal has a career 14% BB rate). This three-round difference is almost certainly based on the fact that Perez is returning from injury and despite being a Grandal fan, I’ll take the discount.
• I’m back to collecting fastball velocities. I’ve created a tab for Spring Training and one for Summer Training.
• Jon Becker has created a spreadsheet with all the COVID Cases and players who have opted out. Just remember that he’s one person donating his time, so always check the news for the latest updates. And thank him.
• The Cubs are trying to have several options in place for the season’s starter.
“We’re trying to front-load all our starters,” Hottovy explained. “In a normal Spring Training, you’d be lining guys up. This guy would be your Opening Day starter. Ideally, here’s Day 2. Right now, in my mind we have seven Opening Day starters, because [we want to] get everybody healthy through a Spring Training like this. You can’t space them out too much, in my opinion, just because we can’t take that chance.”
I could see teams have two to three potential starters for each game in case a pitcher can’t go for some reason.
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With most teams planning to limit the innings their starters throw, there are going to be a few middle relievers who bridge the gap to the seventh to ninth-inning guys. Because most starters will not go five innings, these bridge relievers will have the chance to accumulate a few Wins while hopefully providing decent ratios. Here are some targets.
Every season, some middle relievers go off accumulating half dozen Wins and Saves, great ratios, and over 100 strikeouts. They are more valuable than most starters and closers. The deal is that no one has a clue which middle reliever it will be, but whoever rosters them will be loving it. I decided to query a target list.
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07/02/20
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.
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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS
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Subscribe: RSS
