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Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – February 2, 2026

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February 2, 2026

Here is today’s chat transcript:
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Four Outfielders: Cowser, Steer, Frelick, & Carter

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February 2, 2026


Jim Cowsert-Imagn Images

Previous Outfield Reviews

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1468 – 2026 Shortstop Preview Pt. 3

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January 30, 2026

1/30/26

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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PATREON

This is using 5-game eligibility to cast a very wide net, but we will sometimes skip guys who short-qual (meaning under 20 gms which is the industry standard) at one position to focus on them at their primary.

2026 SHORTSTOP PREVIEW Pt. 3

Tier 6

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Second Base ADP Market Report: 1/28/26

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January 30, 2026

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1467 – 2026 Shortstop Preview Pt. 2

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January 29, 2026

1/29/26

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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PATREON

2026 SHORTSTOP PREVIEW Pt. 2

Tier 4 forgot to mark the whole tier except Nico

Tier 5

—

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment below with fantasy questions.

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Approximately 48 minutes of joyous analysis.

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Mining the News (1/29/26)

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January 29, 2026


Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

American League

Astros

• Carlos Correa and Jose Altuve won’t be able to play in the World Baseball Classic because they can’t get contract insurance.

Correa, who is set to make $31 million next season, has an extensive injury history that ostensibly made his contract more difficult to insure.

“I’m definitely upset because I’ve been preparing really hard this offseason to get better this year and be ready early so I can be ready for the WBC,” said Correa, who added he had already begun facing live pitching in preparation to play for Team Puerto Rico.

“I also understand the business side of things and that’s too big of a risk to take, to play with no insurance.”

All World Baseball Classic participants on MLB 40-man rosters are evaluated by an insurer who was agreed upon by MLB and the players union. As the Los Angeles Times noted in 2023, if the insurer finds a player to be uninsurable due to their injury history, the player’s contract would not be guaranteed for any missed time due to injuries sustained during the WBC unless a team specifically agrees to do so.

…

Altuve’s absence is also due to insurance issues, according to a league source. During the Astros annual FanFest on Saturday, Team Venezuela manager Omar López acknowledged it has been more difficult to get players insured for the upcoming tournament.

“Unfortunately, a lot of players were hurt or for some reason went to the IL in the previous season and automatically, they’re getting into what they call ‘chronic’ injuries,” said López, who is also the Astros bench coach.

I wonder how many other players won’t play because of insurance issues … or if the information will be made public.

• The team still plans to go with a six-man rotation to start the season. Also, it’s likely that the arms who don’t make the rotation will move to the bullpen as long relievers.

Houston opens the season with 26 games in 28 days, signaling the Astros would deploy a six-man rotation out of spring training. Signing Imai — who pitched every fifth day in NPB — made it mandatory.

….

Six-man rotations shorten the bullpen. Because Houston will deploy one at the beginning of the season, when starting pitchers are sometimes still building up their pitch counts, it would behoove the club to carry long relievers.

That could be the fate for whoever loses the rotation competition — be it Weiss, Pearson, Arrighetti or McCullers. Weiss does have minor-league option years remaining, according to FanGraphs, which is why he is the odd man out of this roster projection.

Athletics

• Jacob Wilson윌슨 is trying to put on more muscle at the team’s facility.

“It’s definitely been the main focus for the last couple of offseasons now. Being able to grow into my body a little bit more and put on more muscle. I’ve been at the A’s facility for the entire offseason now, working with the strength staff to get stronger and prepare my body for the long season ahead.”

Blue Jays

• Trey Yesavage is trying to add a curveball.

To that end, Yesavage continues experimenting with a curveball, a pitch he threw in college but essentially dropped last year, riding his fastball, splitter, slider and unusually high release point that became one of the post-season’s prime talking points.

Though remarkably effective in 2025, his repertoire features an all arm-side movement profile, which is why Yesavage said, “I would love something that moves glove side.”

The curveball could very well turn out to be that pitch, offering him a potential extra option to augment the way he predominantly attacks righties (fastball/slider) and lefties (fastball/splitter).

“I’m just playing around with the grip, seeing what feels the most comfortable and seeing how I can most naturally throw my curveball,” he explained. “I have a funky arm angle, so I’ve just got to play around with it.”

Orioles

• Samuel Basallo lost 15 pounds and is emphasizing hitting this offseason.

Listed at 6-foot-4, Basallo showed up to the Birdland Caravan a bit slimmer, having said he’s lost about 15 pounds this offseason. However, that’s unlikely to reduce his massive power — a tool that drew plenty of attention to the Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic native when he was a non-roster invitee to big league Spring Training the past two years.
…
As Basallo focused on conditioning this offseason, he put a large emphasis on hitting as well, though he didn’t divulge any specific changes or tweaks he’s made. But he’s confident his winter work will put him in a position to have big league success during the upcoming season.

Rangers

• Josh Jung is getting back to being “gritty and grindy in the box”.

“It’s truly just getting back to being gritty and grindy in the box,” Jung said at a Winter Warm-Up event. “Just being a gritty, grindy player in the box again. That’s part of just becoming a threat. Last year, there were times where I was not that. I was not being consistent. I need to get back to consistently hitting balls hard. That’s truly it. That and hitting the pitches I like and being more careful. That’s where the consistent approach comes in.”

National League

Brewers

• The manager plans to use Aaron Ashby in the bullpen.

Left-handers Aaron Ashby and DL Hall each have history as starters, but suffered injuries last spring while ramping up to compete for the rotation. If he had his choice, Murphy prefers Ashby in the bullpen, where he’s had stints as an electric, multi-inning, high-leverage relief arm.

“They’re both capable,” Murphy said. “Now with trading Freddy and Tobias, I think there might be more of a need for at least one of them to step in that role. Ashby has kind of separated himself, and he’s done a great job in that relief role. He can handle that and he’s really resilient.”

Ashby and Hall are among the many multi-inning bullpen options available to the Brewers, who have a long history of blurring the lines between “starter” and “reliever.” That strategy is likely to continue into 2026 whether the front office adds a starter or not, and remember, it’s never too late to add.

Giants

• Hayden Birdsong is working on his mechanics.

“There’s some little things, just like mechanical stuff that we’ve looked at,” Birdsong said Saturday during the Giants’ FanFest Tour stop at City Center Bishop Ranch. “The new crew that came in, obviously, they’re big-time looking at it. I kind of made little changes with not my slot, per se, but how I move and certain things. It’s probably not going to look any different to the naked eye. But to me, it’s quite a bit different. It’s been working for me. Now I’ve got to get a hitter in the box and see what happens.”

…

“I think I was over-bending, which caused my arm slot to raise almost, and then everything just didn’t move the same,” Birdsong said. “I’d cut fastball, run fastballs. It was just not what you’re looking for. But I just try to stay more upright. Don’t reach so much overhead, be more athletic.”

Padres

• Joe Musgrove has had a normal offseason after Tommy John surgery.

RHP Joe Musgrove
Injury: Tommy John surgery (torn right UCL)
Expected return: Spring Training 2026
Status: Musgrove said he has had a “normal offseason” progression after missing the 2025 season while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. He resumed throwing bullpen sessions in late December and has been on the mound regularly while throwing all his pitches. (Last updated: Jan. 27)

Phillies

• Justin Crawford is trying to lift the ball more …

Still, the takeaway from Crawford’s most notable offensive concern is clear: there is a concerted effort to lift the ball more. Given how frequently he puts the ball in play, even modest gains in launch angle could unlock gap-to-gap power and elevate his overall impact.

This offseason, those swing-path adjustments have continued. Crawford has appeared taller in his stance — something that surfaced on social media — as he continues refining his approach.

… and here is the video of said swing.

Pirates

• Spencer Horwitz is preparing to play first and second base after making some mechanical changes last year.

[Horwitz is] aiming for more this year. Defensively, he’s preparing to play both first and second base. Offensively, he’s done bat speed training and tried to build general strength. Both could yield more pop.

Even if he just replicates his 2025 results, he should fit in nicely into a lineup that looks more promising than a year ago. That early-season slump he had last year should also be a thing of the past.
…
Some of those struggles were health related, getting back his timing after missing the start of the season. Some of it was mechanical, excelling in the second half of the season once he opened up his stance and focused on making sure his direction took him toward the center of the field.

And some of it, he will admit, was mental. It’s why that late-season push, where he had a .916 OPS after the All-Star break, was a “weight off my shoulders.”

Rockies

• Tyler Freeman could play all over the diamond, including first base.

“We really value his versatility and think that he can play in multiple spots,” Rockies president of baseball operations Paul DePodesta said of Freeman. “We still see him as an outfielder. He’s a right-handed hitter, but he complements Jake and Mickey [Moniak], but we also see him as the guy who can play in the infield. He’s played second, third and some short in the big leagues. He maybe even snuck in a game or two at first base at some point along the way.”


First Base ADP Market Report: 1/24/2026

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January 28, 2026

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

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Four Outfielders: Soderstrom, Garcia, Friedl, & Laureano

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January 27, 2026


Katie Stratman-Imagn Images

Previous Outfield Reviews

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Mining the News (1/26/26)

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January 26, 2026


Brett Davis-Imagn Images

• Aaron Sanchez is attempting a comeback…

After sitting out last season, Aaron Sanchez won the Dominican Winter League’s Pitcher of the Year award this winter and is attracting interest from clubs, league sources said. In eight starts (46 1/3 innings) over the winter, Sanchez had a 1.55 ERA.

Sanchez, 33, has not pitched in the major leagues since 2022. Formerly a top prospect, Sanchez is best known for time with the Toronto Blue Jays. He was an All-Star in 2016, going 15-2 with a 3.00 ERA.

From 2017-22, however, Sanchez experienced injuries and produced a 5.29 ERA. In 2024, he had a 7.92 ERA in 61 1/3 innings while pitching for the Blue Jays’ Triple-A team.

… while averaging 92 mph on his fastball with a slider, curve, and change.

The only time Sanchez averaged 92 mph was in 2022. That season, he posted a 6.60 ERA (4.18 xFIP), 1.55 WHIP, and 6.2 K/9. He’s never thrown a slider in the majors, so it’s a new pitch.

American League

Angels

• Josh Lowe will get a chance to prove he can hit lefties.

The Angels do lack left-handed bats in their lineup, so Lowe could be part a platoon with Teodosio, which could keep Trout and Adell as regulars in the lineup, with Trout sharing time at designated hitter with Soler. But Minasian wouldn’t rule out Lowe getting a chance against lefties.

“When evaluating the player, there were some things that stood out,” Minasian said. “He hasn’t been great against left-handed pitching. He hasn’t had a ton of opportunities either. So again, that’ll be a question for the staff and ‘Zuk’ when we get our hands on him. But with talented players, sometimes it just takes experience and playing time to learn to defend yourself against the same side.”

Astros

• Spencer Arrighetti avoided elbow surgery and plans to be ready for the start of Spring Training.

Arrighetti was able to avoid surgery and has already thrown seven times in the bullpen this winter. He will report to West Palm Beach, Fla., in two weeks healthy and ready to compete.

“I feel ahead of schedule right now instead of behind,” Arrighetti said on Saturday at FanFest at Daikin Park. “So I’m just really optimistic going into camp that I’ll be able to hit the ground running, be on par with the rest of the group and just still be in that competition fighting for my spot.”

• The team hopes Zach Cole can be an outfield regular.

The potential for a full season from Alvarez could help. So would contributions from rookie outfielder Zach Cole. Without being prompted, team officials have praised Cole all offseason and hope he can carve out a regular role in Houston’s unsettled outfield.

I have my doubts. Last season in 52 PA, he posted a 61% Contact%. In the most recent edition of The Process, I found that best case outcome for someone with so much swing-and-miss is about 250 PA.

Athletics

• Nick Kurtz is preparing his body for a full 162-game schedule.

In preparing for Year 2, Kurtz is focused on getting his body ready for the grind of a 162-game season. He has tried to balance his offseason workouts between getting stronger in the weight room while also dropping a few pounds for better mobility and to, hopefully, avoid the tired legs he felt toward the end of 2025.

“I know what needs to be done to stay healthy for 162 [games],” Kurtz said, “what I need to do with my body in the weight room and eating-wise to kind of not hit that wall at some point throughout the year. I know 162 is a lot of games. I want to do the best I can to play every single one of them.”

Orioles

• Heston Kjerstad will be ready for Spring Training …

… after dealing with fatigue last season.

There hasn’t been a clear explanation for the outfielder’s absence to end last season, but it appears to be in the rearview. Kjerstad was shut down in late July while dealing with fatigue. Reports in September were that he was seeing doctors about an unspecified medical condition.

Royals

• Isaac Collins could get reps at second base.

We’ll see Collins in left field the majority of the time, while Thomas will move among all three spots. The Royals touted Collins’ ability to play second base when they acquired him, giving them flexibility, so it’ll be interesting to see whether he gets reps there this spring.

Twins

• The plan is for Ryan Jeffers to be the starting catcher for 100 games.

At first glance, the Caratini signing would seem to make Jeffers, a free agent next winter, a possible trade candidate. Jeffers suggests that management indicated otherwise to him.

“Before all that happened, I had conversations [with management telling me] ’Hey, this might happen,’ and just reassuring me that my role as the guy who’s going to catch 100-plus games is not going to change,” Jeffers told host John Vittas. I’m excited to go back there and really get a full season in. Throughout my career, I’ve split time with a lot of guys, and I’m excited to catch a full workload and also be joined by a guy (Caratini) who’s been in the game for eight-plus years and has a lot of experience, has won a lot of games and has been with some organizations that have played really good baseball.”

• David Festa is almost going through a normal offseason.

Right-hander David Festa has been encouraged by his offseason progress. He made only one appearance, in Triple-A, after July 21 due to a mild form of thoracic outlet syndrome. That diagnosis is often scary for pitchers, and it was initially for Festa. But he said on Saturday that he’s going through something very close to a normal offseason, and he expects to be ready to compete for a rotation spot when camp opens next month.

• Pablo López went through a normal offseason.

Pablo López said his health has not been a concern and that he has had a “normal” offseason following a late-season right forearm injury.

• Bailey Ober admitted that his hip bothered him all of last season.

Ober explained that the main trouble that bothered him was discomfort in the hip of his landing leg. That led to inconsistency in his delivery, since he never knew whether he’d fully have his leg under him when he landed.

He pitched through it, effectively at times, early in the year. But all the while he was falling into bad habits. So although he was mostly feeling OK physically when he returned from the injured list, his mechanics remained out of whack.

“I just never felt like I had a stable base throwing,” Ober said. “It felt like my release was off almost every single throw. Sometimes I’d have 10 throws in a row where it felt great, and the next 10 are like, ‘I don’t know where this is going.’ It was a sharp pain, and I didn’t feel strong in my front leg to block.”

The challenge was knowing when to try to pitch through it and when to pack it in. With some hindsight, Ober acknowledges he might handle things differently if he had another opportunity.

National League

Cubs

• Matt Shaw is taking reps in the outfield.

• Justin Steele won’t be ready for the start of the season, but he feels he’s ahead of schedule.

“There hasn’t really been any hiccups at all through this process,” Steele said. “It’s felt good the entire time. If anything, we’re ahead of schedule. I’ve kind of been pushing the envelope the entire time, wanting to get off the mound.”

While Steele added that “it’s full steam ahead,” that does not mean there are any firm dates circled for a potential comeback yet. Opening Day has already been ruled out publicly by manager Craig Counsell, who said during the Winter Meetings that the first half was possible for the lefty’s return, barring any setbacks.

Diamondbacks

• Ryne Nelson is preparing to make 30 starts while working on his slider and curve.

Nelson made getting physically stronger a priority this offseason so he can handle the rigors of making 30 or more starts in 2026.

With that in mind, he’s added some muscle and reduced some body fat. He worked on continuing to develop his slider — which he thought he made big strides with in 2025 — and his curveball.

The goal is that when he throws those pitches, he’s not just throwing them because he needs to, but because he believes and trusts in them.

Last season, he threw his slider 12% of the time and curve 11% of the time. Our STUPH models have the slider (14% SwStr%) as an average pitch and the curve (12% SwStr%) as below average.

Dodgers

• Odds are that Tommy Edman will not be ready for Opening Day.

Concern over Tommy Edman’s surgery recovery might have given the Dodgers more incentive to land Tucker. Edman will be delayed in starting the spring as he recovers from a right ankle operation. There is a growing likelihood he will not be ready for Opening Day.

Giants

• Bryce Eldridge is about done with the rehab on his wrist.

Eldridge underwent postseason surgery to address a bone spur in his left wrist. He said he’s essentially at full strength, noting that he’s in the final stages of his hitting program. Eldridge should enter camp healthy as he battles for the starting first base/designated hitter job in what would be a split between the two positions with Rafael Devers.

• Casey Schmitt played through wrist pain in the second half.

The 26-year-old hurt his wrist when he was hit by a pitch on June 25, and he played through persistent discomfort in the second half. When the pain didn’t subside during the offseason, Schmitt decided to opt for the same surgery that top prospect Bryce Eldridge had in October.

“I kind of dealt with it probably since June or July when I got hit against Miami that first time,” Schmitt said. “I was kind of dealing with it since then. Just masking it and just getting through the season. I thought it would go away. So I gave it a month off. It didn’t go away. Then we went the surgery route to get it taken care of so I don’t have to deal with it for this year.”

Phillies

• Otto Kemp will mostly play in the outfield.

Otto Kemp, though, got his feet wet in the outfield last season — and it sounds as if getting him some extra reps will be the focus in Spring Training.

“I think some corner outfield,” manager Rob Thomson said this week when asked how he plans to deploy Kemp this spring. “A little bit of infield work — third base, second base, maybe a little bit of first base, too. But, really, focus on the outfield more than anything else.”

Could Thomson envision Kemp playing enough outfield to form a full platoon?

“Yes,” Thomson said. “Yeah, I could.”


Catcher ADP Market Report: 1/25/26

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January 26, 2026

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

Read the rest of this entry »


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