One issue I’ve had with pick up articles in the past is that so few ever recommend anyone to cut so which is arguably tougher than recommending who to pick. Sure, a player in question should probably be on a roster, but should it be your roster? I have a group of interesting free agents but also a player at each of those positions who you can consider cutting as well.

This article is designed mostly for 10- and 12-team leagues as a lot of these guys aren’t available in 15+ teamers and the recommended cuts are likely worth giving a bit more time to in deeper formats as well. I’m using ESPN’s roster rate for guidance.

Previous Volumes

Available Under 40% | Cuttable at 60%+

• C Chance Sisco – 7% | Gary Sanchez – 93% (the cut recommendations at this position are for 1-C formats)

Sisco is hitting so well that the O’s are getting him and Pedro Severino into the lineup regularly with one DH’ing. Sisco has a 163 wRC+ and 4 HR in 64 PA so far. He is striking out 38% of the time, though it’s slightly counterbalanced by his 19% BB rate.

Sanchez has been a disaster and I just don’t think he’s a necessary hold at this point. The 5 HR can’t overcome the damage of a horrific .139/.253/.361 line in 83 PA. He did have three straight homers back in mid-August and looked like he might be coming out of it, but he’s hitting .188 since in 20 PA.

Read the rest of this entry »

I am so glad I got sober before the invention of camera phones:

Arguably the greatest move by a Mets GM ever: https://t.co/qDIbjTtH7L

— Justin Mason (@JustinMasonFWFB) August 27, 2020

Read the rest of this entry »

The 2020 version of Bullpen Report includes six different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found at the bottom of the page.

1. Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
2. Injury News 
3. Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
4. Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
5. Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.
6. Reliever On The Rise: Non-closer who is quickly moving up the depth chart based on potential and recent performance.

The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save.)

Read the rest of this entry »

The trade deadline is Monday so let’s try to identify some of the guys who could be on the move. It will be an interesting deadline as we don’t know if teams will be willing to pony up for high impact players for a month of work. Meanwhile, the new playoff format has a lot of teams in spitting distance of a spot so they may be less inclined to deal even their impending free agents as the returns will likely be scant so why not just go for it? I wanted to get this out earlier in the week, but time prevented that so my sweet call on Taijuan Walker getting dealt and including TOR as one of the potential spots goes by the wayside.

Jeff and I will be writing up the deals over the weekend and on Monday starting with a piece from him tomorrow covering the Walker and Brandon Workman deals. 

BALTIMORE ORIOLES

They are 2 games under .500, but their playoff odds have them at just 11% due in large part to the overall difficulty of the American League so they should consider moving some players.

Tommy Milone – 3.99 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 21% K-BB in 29.3 IP – The 33-year old lefty will definitely draw some interest as he’s shown himself to be a useful 4th-5th starter type who can play up a bit in short samples as we’ve seen so far this year. Potentially interested teams: ATL, CHW, HOU, (back to) OAK, TOR

Alex Cobb – 3.73 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 9% K-BB in 31.3 IP – He’s still owed $15 million for 2021 and 31.3 innings of solid work might not be enough for a team to take a chance on that, but perhaps the O’s can pay some of that down to get a better return. He’s probably somehow amp his K rate to 29% and post 170 IP of a sub-3.00 ERA if he went to Houston. Potentially interested teams: ATL, CHW, HOU

Pat Valaika – 89 wRC+, 5 HR in 78 PA – The 27-year old utilityman has a bit of pop and could be a fill-in or bench piece for some clubs. Potentially interested teams: NYY, MIN, CHC, MIA

Read the rest of this entry »

08/27/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @JasonRRMartinez – Guest

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Taijuan Walker to TOR
  • How active do you expect the deadline to be?
• Joe Jiménez out as DET closer
• Is Craig Kimbrel getting the job back in CHC?
• 5 guys for the last 5 TB saves – anyone rosterable?
• Who would you trust most as COL closer: Bard-Diaz-Estevez?

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

On last October 3rd, I examined how the effects of the Happy Fun Ball could mess with ERA estimator assumptions. I was self-serving in that I wanted to see how the variables in my own ERA estimator (pERA) changed*. Once I had the new constants, I created the valuations, and Randy Dobnak came in with an estimated sub-3.00 ERA ahead of starters such as Carlos Carrasco, Blake Snell, and Shane Bieber. The rankings were there for the public to admire and they were completely ignored throughout draft season.

I probably would have ignored them also if it weren’t for Spencer Turnbull. At the end of the 2018 season, Turnbull had a 6.06 ERA and was on no one’s radar for 2019. But I had his pERA at 2.31 better than both Justin Verlander and Chris Sale. I completely blew off the rankings and paid for it. From the beginning of the season until a shoulder injury in late June, Turnbull had a 2.97 ERA, 9.2 K/9, and 1.29 WHIP. And I had him rostered on no teams.
Read the rest of this entry »

The 2020 version of Bullpen Report includes six different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found at the bottom of the page.

1. Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
2. Injury News 
3. Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
4. Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
5. Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.
6. Reliever On The Rise: Non-closer who is quickly moving up the depth chart based on potential and recent performance.

The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save.)

Read the rest of this entry »

The 2020 version of Bullpen Report includes six different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found at the bottom of the page.

1. Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
2. Injury News 
3. Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
4. Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
5. Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.
6. Reliever On The Rise: Non-closer who is quickly moving up the depth chart based on potential and recent performance.

The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save.)

Read the rest of this entry »

Overall

• Here a must-read research article. The author, Harper Wallbanger, examines the usefulness of one month’s worth of xwOBA. He found:

The ultimate takeaway is that it seems like players that underperform their xStats in the first month are good targets to pickup or trade for.

I find this information helpful. StatCast batted ball data just gets thrown in. I swear some analysts have no idea what the information means, they just want to appear all-knowing. This past offseason, I cut down the variables to the few that matter. Now with an x-stat, the usefulness is known, but I’m sure it and other stats will continue to be misused.
Read the rest of this entry »

08/25/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Jack Flaherty & Blake Snell deal (1:50)
• Mike Clevinger/Zach Plesac update (4:34)
• Aaron Civale excellent again (10:00)
• Merrill Kelly 켈리 scratched then IL’d (14:35)
• Casey Mize & Tarik Skubal after 2 apiece (16:53)
• Rockies SPs: Freeland/Castellini/Senzatela have been best; Marquez/Gray worst (20:02)
• Justin Verlander update (27:49)
• Ke’Bryan Hayes, Leody Taveras, Ian Anderson up (31:00)

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS