2020 Trade Deadline Candidates

The trade deadline is Monday so let’s try to identify some of the guys who could be on the move. It will be an interesting deadline as we don’t know if teams will be willing to pony up for high impact players for a month of work. Meanwhile, the new playoff format has a lot of teams in spitting distance of a spot so they may be less inclined to deal even their impending free agents as the returns will likely be scant so why not just go for it? I wanted to get this out earlier in the week, but time prevented that so my sweet call on Taijuan Walker getting dealt and including TOR as one of the potential spots goes by the wayside.

Jeff and I will be writing up the deals over the weekend and on Monday starting with a piece from him tomorrow covering the Walker and Brandon Workman deals. 

BALTIMORE ORIOLES

They are 2 games under .500, but their playoff odds have them at just 11% due in large part to the overall difficulty of the American League so they should consider moving some players.

Tommy Milone – 3.99 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 21% K-BB in 29.3 IP – The 33-year old lefty will definitely draw some interest as he’s shown himself to be a useful 4th-5th starter type who can play up a bit in short samples as we’ve seen so far this year. Potentially interested teams: ATL, CHW, HOU, (back to) OAK, TOR

Alex Cobb – 3.73 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 9% K-BB in 31.3 IP – He’s still owed $15 million for 2021 and 31.3 innings of solid work might not be enough for a team to take a chance on that, but perhaps the O’s can pay some of that down to get a better return. He’s probably somehow amp his K rate to 29% and post 170 IP of a sub-3.00 ERA if he went to Houston. Potentially interested teams: ATL, CHW, HOU

Pat Valaika – 89 wRC+, 5 HR in 78 PA – The 27-year old utilityman has a bit of pop and could be a fill-in or bench piece for some clubs. Potentially interested teams: NYY, MIN, CHC, MIA

BOSTON RED SOX

I just don’t see J.D. Martinez getting dealt at the deadline. If they decide to do that, I think it’ll be during the offseason.

Mitch Moreland – 228 wRC+, 8 HR in 72 PA – He’s likely the best performing bat available as he’s absolutely decimating righties (1.345 OPS, all 8 of his HR). He only has 9 PA against lefties so he’s a true platoon bat. The universal DH opens up his market, too. Potentially interested teams: HOU, CHC, MIA, MIL

Kevin Pillar – 96 wRC+, 3 HR in 114 PA – Defense would drive interest, but he’s been just about league average at the dish the last two years, too. Potentially interested teams: CLE, MIL

Jackie Bradley Jr. – 85 wRC+, 2 HR in 97 PA – Very similar to Pillar with his bat being a bit worse, though he can get as hot as anyone in the game when he’s locked in. Potentially interested teams: CLE, MIL

Martín Pérez – 3.45 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 6% K-BB in 31.3 IP – A .224 BABIP is doing the heavy lifting on that ERA/WHIP combo given his K-BB rate, but it will be enough to drive interest. Potentially interested teams: ATL, CHW, HOU

KANSAS CITY ROYALS

They traded Brett Phillips to Tampa Bay today and should continue to make moves through Monday’s deadline.

Trevor Rosenthal – 3.29 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 25% K-BB in 13.7 IP – Rosy looks a lot like he did back when h was a premium closer. His velo is back up to 97.9 mph and his 38% K rate is a career best. He will likely draw interest from just about every contender, not just those with a specific need for RP like the ones I’m about to list. Potentially interested teams: TB, PHI, SD, TOR, WAS

Ian Kennedy – 7.24 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 16% K-BB in 13.7 IP – Two disastrous outings where Kennedy has allowed 6 ER in just 0.7 IP leave his numbers inflated, but his core skills are strong enough to drive some interest. Potentially interested teams: TB, PHI, SD, TOR, WAS

Greg Holland – 3.38 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 10% K-BB in 16 IP – Holland’s K rate is down to a career low 19%, but his walk rate is also down to 9% and his groundball rate is a career high 53% so the tradeoff is worthwhile. Potentially interested teams: TB, PHI, SD, TOR, WAS

DETROIT TIGERS

The Tigers have outpaced expectations and even called up three big time prospects to strengthen their club, but they still have just an 11% chance to make the playoffs so they should be open to trading some players.

Jonathan Schoop – 126 wRC+, 7 HR in 119 PA – He’ll be an interesting litmus test of what a high-performing rental can bring back in trade if the Tigers do find an acceptable trade. His trade would also give them ample opportunity to play prospects Isaac Paredes and Willi Castro every day. Potentially interested teams: OAK, NYY, CHC, (back to) MIN

Matthew Boyd – 8.48 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, 16% K-BB in 28.7 IP – The Tigers will likely pass on dealing Boyd as his value is at an all-time low, but there would definitely be some teams willing to buy low if made available. Potentially interested teams: ATL, CHW, HOU, NYM

LOS ANGELES ANGELS

At 10-22 they just have to sell. It’s crazy that they are this bad with the talent they have, but it just didn’t work. Just the talent they could potentially trade is pretty substantial and makes it seem like they should be a contending team.

Dylan Bundy – 2.58 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 24% K-BB in 38.3 IP – He’s the most interesting arm on the market and even as a rental he should be able to net them something, though I thought the same when the Tigers traded Martinez to Arizona. At the very least, they will likely get more than they dealt when they acquired Bundy this past offseason. Potentially interested teams: ATL, CHW, HOU, OAK, TOR

Andrew Heaney – 5.52 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 16% K-BB in 29.3 IP – He opened with three great starts (2.35 ERA), but then has a 9.00 ERA over his last three, though it shouldn’t destroy his trade value if they are looking to move him. Potentially interested teams: ATL, CHW, HOU, OAK, TOR

Tommy La Stella – 134 wRC+, 4 HR in 117 PA – The power surge from last year has carried over as his .202 ISO is even higher than last year’s .192 mark which will no doubt add to his appeal. As a 31-year old rental, they should definitely move him and if they really want him back next year, they can just negotiate a free agent deal with him. Potentially interested teams: NYY, MIN, OAK, (back to) CHC

Jason Castro – 106 wRC+, 2 HR in 58 PA – The veteran backstop is hitting just .204, but he has a 16% BB rate fueling his .328 OBP. Potentially interested teams: (back to) MIN, CIN

TEXAS RANGERS

It started with Corey Kluber’s injury and spiraled down from there as their offense has been abysmal and the breakout relief pitchers can’t mitigate the failings of the non-Lynn rotation pieces.

Shin-Soo Choo – 73 wRC+, 3 HR in 85 PA – His worst offensive season is coming in the final year of his mega deal but he still has a 90-point split between his AVG and OBP with an 11% BB rate and his .260 BABIP is sure to rise. In a standard 6-month season I’d be buying low on him for sure as he looks like the same guy who posted a 114 wRC+ from 2018-19 in 1325 PA, but the season may run out before he can fully turn it around this year. Potentially interested teams: (back to) CLE, MIA, (back to) CIN, MIL, HOU

Mike Minor – 6.75 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 15% K-BB in 29.3 IP – Velo is down 2 mph and the HR rate has soared to 2.2 rendering him ineffective in four of his six starts. Assuming he’s healthy, they should still be able to deal the impending free agent. Potentially interested teams: ATL, CHW, HOU, OAK, TOR

Jesse Chavez – 8.74 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, 10% K-BB in 11.3 IP – He’s been traded seven times so I just assume someone will want him. Potentially interested teams: TB, PHI, SD, (back to) OAK, (back to) ATL, PHI, (back to) TOR

SEATTLE MARINERS

Now that Walker is dealt, I’m not sure there are many other trade candidates here. Dee Gordon and Bryan Shaw have team options that definitely won’t be picked up, but does anyone really want them?! They should at least be open to trading this guy as his value may never be higher:

Austin Nola – 152 wRC+, 5 HR in 95 PA – I’m not sure they’ll want to deal the 30-year old as he is under team control through 2025, but at the same time that could feasibly make the returns a good bit better even at his age. His positional flexibility could make him appealing to any team looking to improve offense, even if they don’t need a catcher. Potentially interested teams: MIN, CIN, MIL, NYY

PITTSBURGH PIRATES

The worst team in the league should be looking to trade anything not nailed down.

Chad Kuhl – 2.84 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 16% K-BB in 19 IP – I wouldn’t have included Kuhl if I didn’t see a note on MLB Trade Rumors suggesting that the Jays were considering the 27-year old righty as I think the Pirates should hold the electric arm through his 2022 team control and make him part of their future. However, if he’s available then anyone with a pitching need should see what it costs to get him. I’m a big fan and think a team with strong pitching development could really have something with him. Potentially interested teams: ATL, CHW, HOU (can you even imagine?), PHI, SD

Derek Holland – 6.17 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 14% K-BB in 23.3 IP – The veteran lefty has been solid in three of his four starts, but he allowed 9 ER in the other which is inflating his ERA quite a bit. Even that start was kind of impressive considering he allowed four homers in five batters to open the game and still pitched into the sixth. Perhaps the Pirates should’ve been happy with five as he allowed three more runs without getting an out in the sixth. At any rate, he’s a dependable innings guy who could string together a handful of nice starts to end the season and then give an inning or two at a time out of the bullpen in the playoffs. Potentially interested teams: ATL, CHW, HOU, OAK, TOR, TB, PHI, SD

Gregory Polanco – 62 wRC+, 4 HR in 68 PA – I’ve always been a huge fan of Polanco, but health has derailed him time and time again. He is smacking the piss out of the ball when he makes contact with a 59% Hard-Hit rate, but he’s not making nearly enough contact with a comically high 46% K rate. The 28-year old is owed $12 million for 2021 which isn’t too bad and could entice someone to take a chance knowing they’d have more than just a one-month rental. Potentially interested teams: CLE, MIL, MIA

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

This 8-game losing streak has all but sealed their fate, though they don’t have a ton of players to trade unless they start considering some big boy moves like Starling Marte and David Peralta, but I doubt they are looking for that kind of tear down.

Eduardo Escobar – 51 wRC+, 3 HR in 126 PA – He’s had a brutal follow up to his excellent 2019, but a .212 BABIP is playing a big and the core factors in his profile are all still in line with last year. He could actually be a nice buy low for a club in need of some flexibility. His $7.7 million dollar salary isn’t a roadblock to a deal, either. If anything, it makes him more appealing for Arizona to ride it out with him. Potentially interested teams: (back to) MIN, NYY, OAK, CIN, MIL

Robbie Ray – 7.84 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, 8% K-BB in 31 IP – Maybe they should’ve traded him last year or the year before when they had the chance. Ray reworked his mechanics and has suffered through his worst season yet. That said, there are still teams that would take a shot as I doubt the D’backs can really command much for a rental with these numbers. Potentially interested teams: ATL, CHW, HOU, OAK, TOR, TB, PHI, SD

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I did my best here in trying to identify not only the candidates who could be moved, but also the teams that might be interested, but I’m definitely open to hearing if I missed someone. Mention any other guys you think have a good chance to get dealt in the comments.