For the second week in a row, I had to voice my amazement that JT Brubaker was cut in the NFBC Main Event. While Brubaker’s results have not been great (4.95 ERA), there are several signs that point to him being closer to a 4.00 ERA pitcher. The stat that sticks out is his 1.9 HR/9. The home runs have him with a 4.98 FIP while his xFIP is a full run lower at 3.98. I wanted to see if I should blindly assume that his home run rate will drop. With the expected drop, will his FIP and ERA regress downward to his xFIP? Also, are there any measurable traits that make a pitcher more home run prone? I ended up with a “maybe” and a solid “no”.

Brubaker isn’t the only pitcher who fits this mold. Bailey Ober has a 2.2 HR/9. His 4.99 ERA is almost identical to his 5.18 while his xFIP is down at 4.12. Another is Yusei Kikuchi (1.6 HR/9, 4.37 FIP, 3.47 xFIP). Adbert Alzolay (2.0 HR/9, 5.03 FIP, 3.89 xFIP). The season is over halfway over and fantasy managers are losing patience. Read the rest of this entry »

NEW FEATURE ALERT! We have added an upgraded version of RosterResource’s Closer Depth Chart to FanGraphs. Read more about it here.

We will always include a link to the full Closer Depth Chart at the bottom of the Bullpen Report each day. It’s also accessible from the RosterResource drop-down menu and from any RosterResource page. Please let us know what you think.

1. Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
2. Injury News
3. Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
4. Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
5. Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.

The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save).
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This is brutal:

Angel Hernandez’s side gig is working out well https://t.co/XwMBcpbkGm

— Justin Mason (@JustinMasonFWFB) August 12, 2021

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The Self-Evaluation Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Nicklaus Gaut

Field of Dreams

Strategy Section

Self-Evaluation

• For teams in contention
  • Looking at categories to make gains
• For teams not in contention
  • Evaluating what went wrong
  • Following player hot streaks in August/September
  • Trying different strategies

Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week

• Most innings pitched in 2021

Starting Pitchers who could be limited

• Chris Bassitt
• Julio Urias
• Casey Mize
• Alek Manoah
• Trevor Rogers
  • FIP vs. xFIP

Final Month Fades

• Hitters to Fade
  • Is Nelson Cruz a Hall of Famer?
  • Francisco Lindor vs. Jose Iglesias vs. Amed Rosario
• Pitchers to Fade

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“Knocking Down The Door” is a weekly column highlighting minor leaguers who are making a case for a major league promotion. Listed below are the names of this week’s picks and the player’s team, age, level(s), prospect ranking, and last 2-3 weeks of statistics.

The analysis can be viewed in the embedded video of the previous day’s episode of The RosterResource Show, a weekly live stream focused on all things related to rosters, transactions, and RosterResource content at FanGraphs.

Knocking Down The Archive

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There are a number of players who have seen a change in playing time post-trade deadline. Abraham Toro moved into a near everyday role upon Alex Bregman’s injury and was consistently hitting towards the bottom of the order. But, since being traded to Seattle, Toro has found himself hitting in the 5 spot, keeping his everyday role intact, only at second base rather than third. It is likely that Toro would have found himself back on the bench, or worse, as Bregman nears a return from injury. Since moving to Seattle, Toro still does not have the most crystal clear path towards an everyday role, but it’s getting clearer. The Mariners Depth Chart shows a lot of interchangeable pieces and it’s not clear whether or not Toro will continue to fill the 2B spot if his bat begins to go quiet. Regardless, Toro has made an impact with his new club, has begun appearing on many analysts’ waiver wire feeds, and has hit from the leadoff spot in his two most recent appearances. Let’s take a dive down the rabbit hole and see what Toro’s game is all about. 

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Transcript is live!

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NEW FEATURE ALERT! We have added an upgraded version of RosterResource’s Closer Depth Chart to FanGraphs. Read more about it here.

We will always include a link to the full Closer Depth Chart at the bottom of the Bullpen Report each day. It’s also accessible from the RosterResource drop-down menu and from any RosterResource page. Please let us know what you think.

1. Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
2. Injury News
3. Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
4. Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
5. Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.

The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save).
Read the rest of this entry »

How to sneak out of work early:

Why is this slide so smooth, though? 👀 pic.twitter.com/4Eu3IT8hXi

— MLB (@MLB) August 11, 2021

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We are entering the dog days of the season and this season is of course particularly unique because we’re coming off the pandemic year. The dog days could hit harder than normal and have teams pushing hard for reinforcements to ensure their major league arms can get to the finish line of the regular season and beyond if they are contenders. Here are five guys who be called up (or back up) to make a late-season impact.

Joe Ryan | MIN – 35% K, 5% BB, 3.63 ERA, 0.79 WHIP in 57 IP

Ryan was in the Nelson Cruz deal and though the Twins are toast for the year, they should still consider giving the 25-year-old righty a look soon. Brilliant command of his fastball has fueled elite K%-BB% all the way up the minor league ladder along with being a bit old for each level, too. He fared pretty well for Team USA in the Olympics, too, with 10 K and 1 BB in 4.7 IP. It’s time to see if this heater is going to find MLB success and if they turn him loose, he could be a nice SP pickup in a lot of formats.

Aaron Ashby | MIL – 36% K, 12% BB, 4.48 ERA, 1.38 WHIP in 62.3 IP

Ashby made his debut earlier this year and it didn’t go well, allowing seven runs (four earned) on four hits and three walks while getting just two outs. He struggled in his first two outings back in Triple-A after the debut, but then settled down with a 2.08 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 38 K, and 6 BB in 21.7 IP. He is actually back today (Tuesday, August 10th) for the doubleheader against the Cubs and could be a key piece to helping Milwaukee rest the three aces down the stretch. This is a volatile profile, but the huge strikeout ability gives him some real upside.

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