We all look at underlying metrics when it comes to any player, but whether we like to admit it or not we still sometimes look at the basic numbers. For pitchers, while ERA and WHIP of course mean something, we all know they aren’t predictive at all. Yet sometimes they are hard to ignore and we think, “well he did have a great ERA.” As a fun little exercise, we are going to compare two pitchers at a time based on underlying statistics to see if we can push away some biases. It’s time for part two, let’s have some fun!

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I completed the counting stat analysis on early March pitcher counting stats after finishing the hitter projection comparisons (part 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5).  it is time for the pitchers to take center stage. For the first article, I’ll measure the accuracy of counting stats from early March. The results were mixed this time with the aggregators having a decent showing.

First, here are the projections analyzed.

• Steamer (FanGraphs)
• ZIPS
• DepthCharts (FanGraphs)
• THE BAT
• Davenport
• ATC (FanGraphs)
• Pod (Mike Podhorzer)
• Masterball (Todd Zola)
• PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus)
• RotoWire
• Razzball (Steamer)
• Paywall #1
• Average of the above projections

To create a list of players to compare for accuracy, I took the TGFBI ADP (players in demand at that time) and selected all the pitchers in the top-450 drafted players (30-man roster, 15 teams in the Main Event) in ten or more leagues. Then I removed all the pitchers who never threw an inning. Read the rest of this entry »

11/10/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

• Andrew Heaney to LAD (8:00)
  • Dodgers 2022 staff
• A’s & Reds tearing down (15:19)
• Ty France to play 1B for SEA (21:51)
  • Evan White’s future

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With NFBC unofficially ushering in the start of the 2022 draft season last week, I think now is a good time to check in on a key piece of information your chosen fantasy platform provides. Site ranks, baby.

Uh-oh…Noob alert, am I right? I mean, how could a serious fantasy player pay attention to something so trite as site ranks? What am I going to do next; say something insane like ADP is important? Well, yes. But not today because we don’t yet have a significant sample. So, we’ll start by focusing on the ranks that sites include in their draft rooms and why paying attention to them should help inform your decisions. Read the rest of this entry »

79-83 (3rd in Division; 17th in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 36 (23rd)

RP Wins: 22 (30th)

Saves: 43 (7th)

1+ Save: 5 (Mark Melancon 39, Ryan Weathers, Craig Stammen, Tim Hill, Miguel Diaz 1)

100+ Ks: 3 (Joe Musgrove 203, Yu Darvish 199, Blake Snell 170)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 4 (Fernando Tatis Jr. .282, Manny Machado .278, Eric Hosmer .269, Jake Cronenworth .266)

65+ Runs: 4 (Tatis Jr. 99, Cronenworth 94, Machado 92, Tommy Pham 74)

65+ RBI: 4 (Machado 106, Tatis Jr. 97, Cronenworth 71, Hosmer 65)

10+ HRs: 7 (Tatis Jr. 42, Machado 28, Cronenworth 21, Wil Myers 17, Pham, Trent Grisham 15, Hosmer 12)

5+ SBs: 10 (Tatis Jr. 25, Pham 14, Grisham 13, Machado 12, Jurickson Profar 10, Myers 8, Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 6, Hosmer, Jorge Mateo [total: 10], Adam Frazier 5)

BEST BUY: Trent Grisham

Grisham was having a brilliant season through June, pacing toward a 30 HR/20 SB campaign, but had a brutal summer with just 5 HR and 6 SB (in 10 tries) from July 1st on (308 PA). He suffered a pair of injuries early in the year (hamstring, heel), though I’m unsure how much they factored in considering he did his best work in the first half. The 25-year-old has solid plate skills, power, speed, and a guaranteed role. The rough second half will drop his price and I’m going to pounce. He still has the 30/20 upside and should give us at least a 20/15 season as long as he plays 140 games.

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Now that the analysis hitter projection comparisons (part 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5) are done, it is time for the pitchers to take center stage. For the first article, I’ll measure the accuracy of counting stats from early March. Razzball had a near clean sweep as it only missed on Saves.

First, here are the projections analyzed.

• Steamer (FanGraphs)
• ZIPS
• DepthCharts (FanGraphs)
• The Bat
• Davenport
• ATC (FanGraphs)
• Pod (Mike Podhorzer)
• Masterball (Todd Zola)
• PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus)
• RotoWire
• Razzball (Steamer)
• Paywall #1
• Average of the above projections

To create a list of players to compare for accuracy, I took the TGFBI ADP (players in demand at that time) and selected all the pitchers in the top-450 drafted players (30-man roster, 15 teams in the Main Event) in ten or more leagues. Then I removed all the pitchers who never threw an inning. Read the rest of this entry »

2021 is over and we turn the page to 2022. Here are my current ranks for the outfield position for 2022. I will post updates as things change with signings, injuries, or news in Major League Baseball.

See my other ranks here: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/category/rankings/

Read the rest of this entry »

American League

Mariners

• Even if healthy, Evan White might start the season the minors.

1B Evan White (signed through 2025, club options for ’26, ’27, ‘28)

White’s recovery from left hip surgery in July will be one of the biggest storylines entering Spring Training, especially given that Dipoto wasn’t sure if the 25-year-old would be 100 percent healthy by then. Given his $24 million contract, Seattle is invested in his future. But his spot at first isn’t necessarily written in ink like it was after he first signed that deal — and the Mariners won’t have any hesitation playing him at Triple-A Tacoma if his bat needs more work.

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77-85 (3rd in Division; 18th in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 32 (26th)

RP Wins: 45 (5th)

Saves: 41 (13th)

1+ Save: 6 (Edwin Díaz 32, Trevor May 4, Jacob Barnes 2, Jeury Familia, Seth Lugo, Heath Hembree 1)

100+ Ks: 3 (Marcus Stroman 158, Taijuan Walker, Jacob deGrom 146)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 2 (Brandon Nimmo .292, Pete Alonso .262)

65+ Runs: 2 (Alonso 81, Francisco Lindor 73)

65+ RBI: 1 (Alonso 94)

10+ HRs: 7 (Alonso 37, Lindor 20, Jonathan Villar 18, Kevin Pillar 15, Michael Conforto 14, Dominic Smith 11, James McCann 10, Javier Báez 9 w/NYM [total: 22])

5+ SBs: 4 (Villar 14, Lindor 10, Nimmo, Báez 5 w/NYM [total: 18])

BEST BUY: Pete Alonso

Alonso is a steady premium power source. His rookie year will probably be the high-water mark of his career (.260-53-120), but he is a bankable 30 HR/90 RBI for 2022 and among a small handful of guys who you could reasonably project for 40 HR. He is almost boring at this point, but there is nothing wrong with boring, quality production.

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I’ve been slowly working my way through the hitter projections and that journey comes to an end today as I examine how each projected hitter rate stats stand up. Besides batting average, I turn each of the counting stats into a rate by dividing by plate appearances. Finally, I adjust each value to the actual league rates. Again, any combination of projections stick out along with the BAT.

For reference, here are the projections used.

• Steamer (FanGraphs)
• ZIPS
• DepthCharts (FanGraphs)
• The Bat
• The Bat X
• Davenport
• ATC (FanGraphs)
• Pod (Mike Podhorzer)
• Masterball (Todd Zola)
• PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus)
• RotoWire
• Razzball (Steamer)
• ZEILE (Fantasy Pros)*
• Paywall #1
• Average of the above projections

To create a list of players to compare for accuracy, I took the NFBC Main Event ADP (players in demand at that time) and selected the hitters in the top-450 drafted players (30-man roster, 15 teams in the Main Event). To determine accuracy, I calculated the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) for two different sets of values. RMSE is a “measure of how far from the regression line data points are” and the smaller a value the better. Additionally, I included the actual and league average rates for reference. Read the rest of this entry »