The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

I know the Cubs game is going already today, but here’s the rest of the weekend!

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The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

Pardon me for missing my chat today, I had a doctor’s appt. (nothing crazy or worrisome) and that was the only window they could squeeze me into this week. I posted a notice on yesterday’s chart, but it wasn’t until the morning so I imagine that not everyone saw it and some were wondering where the chat was this afternoon. 

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While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named “High Stakes Leagues,” and there are eleven of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues. Read the rest of this entry »

The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

I will NOT be able to conduct my chat today. I have a doctor appointment (nothing crazy) and this was the one window they could fit me in this week. 

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Board tonight, comments in the AM!

• After a couple poor tune-up starts fresh off the IL, Kirby has 3.26 ERA/1.10 WHIP/19% K-BB in his L16
• Eury had some hiccups in Aug, including a nightmare last night (0.7 IP/5 ER) but he still had 2 QS and logged 3 Ws; barring another mega-dud here, his WAS/DET 2-step next wk should be super appealing
• Ray’s velo was down for his starts at MIL and at SDP, but it was back up to 93.7 mph (+0.2 v. season mark) last time out despite the poor results
• Horton might actually deserve to be just behind Kirby if not #1 himself; since allowing 4 ER at MIN on July 9th, he’s allowed 4 ER in his L8 combined: 0.86 ERA/0.88 WHIP/16% K-BB in 42 IP
• I’ve been cautious w/Shohei and I think rightfully so to this point, but he reached 5 IP for first time this yr and draws a great matchup to do it again! Always a risk to go fewer than 5 IP, but confidently putting him in the rotation again
• Bieber’s had 2 great starts off the IL w/15 Ks and 0 BB… he’ll likely have a hiccup at some point as most injury returners do, but I can’t see sitting him anywhere right now
• Springs hasn’t had the same crazy home/road splits like some of his Athletics teammates, but he is still better on the road (3.66 ERA/1.12 WHIP) and I don’t mind giving him a shot in STL
• The Fermin/Bergert & Kolek trade was a small but impactful that both teams might end up very happy with when it’s all done. Bergert has continued his success w/KCR, posting a shiny 2.54 ERA/1.02 WHIP in 28.3 IP and while his 15% K-BB isn’t amazing, it is up nearly 5 pts from his SDP work (2.78 ERA/1.18 WHIP/11% K-BB)
• Cortes/Houser/Littell are definitely dicier outside of the deeper leagues, but have enough intrigue to be viable-if-risky streamers in 12s and lower
• Zebby/Povich/Mize/Ashcraft/Leiter are a group of interesting streamers with tangible upside, but substantial risk tied to their inconsistency, matchup, or both. Zebby’s date w/the White Sox is the easiest of the group but they aren’t the pushover they were in the 1H
• Q is scary v. PHI and honestly if I’m giving him 1-x, I guess Nola can get 1, too… both are very scary with substantial downside where you’re really hoping whichever you use can snake a Win
• Liberatore to Alexander contains some intriguing streaming names but I’m trying to avoid duds down the stretch to the best of my ability and all of these guys scare me for one reason or another:
  • Liberatore faded after a strong start and ATH offense is frisky
  • Cantillo’s WHIP is horrendous & BOS is a solid offense
  • May just isn’t someone I can trust anywhere so best of luck if you’re taking that plunge
  • Gallen is similar to May in that respect where his name value keeps people coming back and both have solid matchups, but their skills scare me entirely too much

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Welcome to September’s first Position Player Playing Time Changes roundup! Waiver claims and some unfortunate injuries are the highlight of this week’s summary, as well as a notable prospect recall in the Royals’ Carter Jensen.

When setting expectations for pitchers for a given week, it can admittedly be hard to trust the projections and ignore recent performance–whether ‘recent’ includes the last month, or the full 2025 season.  Generally speaking, should you trust a typical weekly projection that accounts for the true talent level of the pitcher and the context of the matchup when setting your lineups for the upcoming week?  Or is it better to focus on a pitcher’s performance from the last month or from the current season and ride the hot hand? Put differently, do typical projections place enough weight on recency?

This article sets out to answer this question.

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He’s a human highlight reel:

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The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

Board tonight, comments in the AM!

• Top 3 guys are awesome and get solid matchups (though Woo and Ras are facing each other so only 1 can win)
• Kershaw is the only other 3-x with a good matchup so he could be a little higher in a DFS situation, but he’s still essentially a 5-and-dive (7 starts of 6+ mixed in) and his Ks are awful at just 16%
• Fried’s going to HOU to square off v. Framber… hopefully it’s a fantastic duel between the 2 southpaws
• Webb’s headed to Coors where he’s logged the most innings outside of Oracle w/decent results: 4.44 ERA/1.16 WHIP/15% K-BB; COL is 4th in wOBA vR at home since the All-Star break, but I’m still running Webb comfortably
• McLean will have his hiccup eventually, but he’s been absolutely dialed in for these 3 starts and I can’t see sitting him anywhere
• Lodolo/Berríos is another fun matchup that could yield a duel or go sideways in Great American Ballpark
• Darvish is an ERA risk (though he has a palatable 3.77 since the 8 ER at STL), but the 1.11 WHIP is very useful
• I stopped short of giving Sevvy the 3rd x because while he is muuuuch better on the road with a 3.17 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, it comes with just a 9% K-BB which puts a lot of pressure on the .237 BABIP to stay great on the road
• Cavalli was cooked for 7 ER at NYY, but that was an easy skip so I’m not going to hold the Dud against him too harshly and even though MIA is better than we thought they’d be this year, I’m comfortable taking another shot w/him here
• Wells is debuting after over 10 months off (last start was 4/12/24) so I’d like to see one before diving in… he could look solid like Luis Garcia did last night as Wells’ 6-start rehab did go pretty well, but there’s a good bit of downside here, too… his 1-x is more to draw attention to his return and maybe pickup and stash instead of starting right away
• Cecconi’s had his dips but mostly been a solid streamer this summer, L10 Game Scores: 55–66–45–54–54–59–26–17–59–52
• I’m keeping an eye on SGL and would even be open to a pickup and stash with him, too, but I’m just not sure how many IP we can expect today and it’s a really tough matchup

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The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

Board tonight, comments in the AM!

• Jeez, what a tough board to open the week! Greene – our top SP – gets the AL East-leading Blue Jays. Gray and Cease get feisty offenses in ATH and BAL
• Nelson is quietly having a fantastic season and has the best matchup of the Top 5
• Mis went 5 IP last time out, notching 10 Ks… could do it again or go 3 IP but he’s tough to sit anywhere
• Bello’s 5 ER in 5.7 IP at SDP is his only sub-6 IP outing over the L6: 2.12 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 13% K-BB in 38.7 IP
• Strider dropped a solid 7 IP/1 ER gem after 3 straight duds, but still only had 3 Ks… kinda similar to Mis where you’re starting him damn near everywhere despite the remarkably volatile performance
• Dropped an “x” off Castillo and Kikuchi as I’m open to skipping either in shallower formats… trips to TBR & HOU are scary
• Bradish was amazing in his return to the mound, but that doesn’t mean he’s an automatic must-start after 6 good IP
• We have to distance ourselves from the name value of Ober/Manaea relative to their brutal performances
• Added a 2nd “x” to Morales, but didn’t shift the board; I would consider Morales behind Messick now
• Baz terrifies me at home and I took off the 1 “x” he had as I just don’t see the upside of running him anywhere

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7:30	Jeff Zimmerman:

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