Archive for Featured

Mining the News (9/2/22)

by
September 2, 2022

American League

Rangers

• Nathaniel Lowe has decided to swing at better pitches.

“Just committing to better pitches,” he said. “Offense as a whole is trending in such a direction where it’s like, such a visual thing, as far as ‘Does my swing look good?’ But the real one true answer is ‘Does your swing produce?’ And if you get good pitches to hit, are you doing what you’re supposed to do with good pitches to hit? I think that I’ve finally found a space where I can just commit to that.

OK, that gives us a place to start. What has Lowe done with pitches in the strike zone? It’s interesting to think back to spring training — remember when he simply wasn’t swinging at any pitches, choosing instead to track them for the first few games of Cactus League play? It felt weird to everyone, including his manager. It turns out that strategy was more like a big cat stalking its prey. Somewhere after Opening Day, Lowe — as he said above — started committing to (see: “swinging at”) better pitches.

His Swing% is up from 45% to 52% and his .855 OPS is a career-best. Read the rest of this entry »


Lineup Analysis (9/2/22)

by
September 2, 2022

With rosters expanding yesterday, lineups are going to be a mess to figure out will the changes. Better decisions can be made in just a couple more days. Today, I just gave each team a quick look for obvious changes and will focus on players losing playing time.

American League

Angels

• Mike Ford (.991 OPS, 2 HR, 27 PA) has started seven straight games at first base.

Astros

• After not starting much at all, Christian Vázquez has started in four of the last six games.

• Jeremy Peña has moved up to second in the lineup and Yuli Gurriel has moved down. Read the rest of this entry »


Beat the Shift Podcast – Reflection Episode w/ Patrick Davitt

by
September 2, 2022

The Reflection Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Patrick Davitt

Strategy Section

  • Successful fantasy strategies in 2022
    • Spread the risk at auctions
    • Not overpaying for stolen bases
    • Find the hotspots
    • Staying away from higher risk players at the top
    • The aggregation of small value gains
  • Kevin Gausman’s high BABIP
  • What was the ideal closer strategy in 2022?
  • Unsuccessful fantasy strategies in 2022
    • Pocket Aces
    • Taking on too much injury draft capital
  • What can we do better in 2023?
    • Not relying on closers from the waiver wire
    • More stars & scrubs in mixed leagues
    • Waiver Wire
      • Not bidding too high
      • Being more patient
  • How to handle starting pitchers late in season with poor upcoming matchups
  • Activating starting pitchers immediately upon return from injury

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast (beat-the-shift): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS


Roto Riteup: September 2, 2022

by
September 2, 2022

Spencer Strider is easily the fantasy pick up of the year:

Read the rest of this entry »


Starting Pitcher Chart – September 2nd, 2022

by
September 2, 2022
Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

I started this in early-September last year and it seemed to be useful. The chart will include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and then my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

Let’s go secure some titles!

Friday’s Starters
PITCHER TM OPP THR 10 12 15+ L5 STATS OPP wOBA L30 days NOTE
Alek Manoah TOR at PIT R x x x 3.34 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 16% K-BB .280 – 27th Hasn’t allowed >4 ER in any start this yr
Luis Castillo SEA at CLE R x x x 2.84 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 25% K-BB .279 – 28th 2 tms have gotten 4 ER off him this yr: LAD and…. OAK!
Charlie Morton ATL MIA R x x x 3.26 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 28% K-BB .277 – 29th Still has occasional blips, but now at 2.92 ERA & 102 Ks in L80 IP
Sandy Alcantara MIA at ATL R x x x 2.72 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 15% K-BB .326 – 7th Schedule on fire lately: at PHI, SD, at LAD, LAD, at ATL
Jordan Montgomery STL CHC L x x x 1.76 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 21% K-BB .264 – 29th Has 5% HR/FB w/STL aided by 8 pt. jump in GB to 54%
Jeffrey Springs TBR NYY L x x x 2.93 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 23% K-BB .300 – 21st 1 bad inn. at BOS yielded just his 2nd start >3 ER (3.08 SP ERA)
David Peterson NYM WAS L x x x 2.60 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 20% K-BB .303 – 18th Carrasco returns Sun., but I’d stash in case another spot opens
Yu Darvish SDP at LAD R x x x 4.05 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 21% K-BB .356 – 2nd Too good to sit even at LAD
Dustin May LAD SDP R x x x 1.64 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 24% K-BB .322 – 8th Will have post-TJ hiccups, but an easy start right now
Domingo Germán NYY at TBR R x x x 1.82 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 16% K-BB .330 – 4th Hasn’t allowed >3 ER in 7 starts since 5 ER debut
Sonny Gray MIN at CWS R x x x 2.03 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 16% K-BB .305 – 15th Dominant 2H: 1.91 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 18% K-BB in 37.7 IP
Reid Detmers LAA HOU L x x x 2.51 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 20% K-BB .368 – 3rd No shame in passing v. HOU with non-aces down the stretch
Dean Kremer BAL OAK R x x x 2.25 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 15% K-BB .289 – 24th 50% GB in L5 (38% seas.) has fueled 0.3 HR (0.8 seas.)
Kyle Gibson PHI at SFG R x x x 2.30 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 18% K-BB .288 – 25th Had 4.91 ERA, 1.4 HR/9 in F16; 2.80 ERA, 0.7 HR/9 in L9
Alex Cobb SFG PHI R x x x 3.10 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 16% K-BB .328 – 5th 5.73 ERA/2.62 FIP in F8 screamed regression & it came: 2.82/3.10 in L13
Daniel Lynch KCR at DET L x x x 4.73 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 6% K-BB .267 – 28th There’s risk even w/the matchup due to hitability (10.1 H9)
Nick Pivetta BOS TEX R x x 4.08 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 16% K-BB .311 – 12th Great v. sub-.500 tms: 2.12 ERA, 0.88 WHIP; 5.61, 1.55 v. =>.500 tms
Lance McCullers Jr. HOU at LAA R x x 1.69 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 4% K-BB .290 – 22nd 3+ BB in all 3 starts since returning
Zach Plesac CLE SEA R x x 5.46 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 13% K-BB .297 – 19th Solid 3.87 ERA in L15 after 5.40 in F8
JP Sears OAK at BAL L x 2.53 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 4% K-BB .351 – 6th BB surge in L3 could be exposed by BAL (13% BB vL in L30)
Eric Lauer MIL at ARI L x 3.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 6% K-BB .301 – 20th F14 starts: 7% BB, 1.9 HR/9; L11: 11% BB, 1.3 HR/9
Josiah Gray WAS at NYM R 5.47 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 13% K-BB .344 – 3rd Has just 3 HR-free outings in 23 starts
Drew Hutchison DET KCR R 3.04 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 6% K-BB .292 – 21st WHIP & K-BB are buckets of cold water on the ERA
Johan Oviedo PIT TOR R PIT Debut .299 – 18th Upside arm who could have some Sept. intrigue, but not v. TOR!
Zach Davies ARI MIL R 2.39 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 7% K-BB .313 – 10th Abandon him on the waiver wire
Davis Martin CWS MIN R 4.68 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 5% K-BB .308 – 14th Too risky for little upside
Adrian Sampson 샘슨 CHC at STL R 4.43 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 11% K-BB .373 – 1st I dare you!
Kyle Freeland COL at CIN L 5.93 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 6% .317 – 14th CIN is basically Coors Jr. in terms of park factor
Luis Cessa CIN COL R 4.50 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 13% K-BB .290 – 23rd Has just 2 starts totaling 6 IP
Dallas Keuchel TEX at BOS L 10.13 ERA, 1.92 WHIP, 9% K-BB .328 – 9th BOS ripped him for 6 ER in 2 IP when they saw him on 5/26

Bullpen Report: September 1, 2022

by
September 1, 2022

The 2022 version of Bullpen Report includes five different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found at the bottom of the page.

  1. Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
  2. Injury News 
  3. Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
  4. Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
  5. Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.

The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save.)

Click HERE to view the full Closer Depth Chart.

Read the rest of this entry »


Starting Pitcher Chart – September 1st, 2022

by
August 31, 2022
Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

I started this in early-September last year and it seemed to be useful so it’s time to bring back the Daily SP Chart!

The chart will include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and then my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues. These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

Let’s go secure some titles!

Read the rest of this entry »


Roto Riteup: August 31, 2022

by
August 31, 2022

How can you not be romantic about baseball?

Read the rest of this entry »


The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1093 – August Stud Hitters

by
August 30, 2022

8/30/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

PATREON

INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS


Big Kid Adds (8/30/22)

by
August 30, 2022

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even a larger entry fee ($2.5K to $15K). They get originally named “High Stakes Leagues” and this year there are nine of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers are going to try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more of these leagues: Read the rest of this entry »


« Previous Page — « Previous entries
Next entries » — Next Page »