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Beat the Shift Podcast – Relief Pitcher Episode w/ Greg Jewett

The Relief Pitcher episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Greg Jewett

Strategy Section

  • General closer landscape
  • Optimal closer strategy last year
  • Is a closer who gets a half a year’s worth of saves a successful draft pick?
    • Closers who are traded mid-season
  • General closer draft strategy
    • Is drafting a 2nd round closer cost prohibitive for the rest of your roster?
  • What is the best way to throw a cheap closer dart?
  • Is it worth buying split closer situations?
  • Is it worth skipping out on reliable closers and acquiring saves in-season via FAAB?
  • Should we purchase middle relievers in drafts?

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Interesting NL LABR Reserve Round Picks

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

This past weekend, I participated in the NL-only live auction. It’s a 12-team league with 23 roster spots and six reserve-round picks. By the end, people are scraping for anyone with a plus and an MLB roster spot. I’m going to go over some of those late picks today to see if there are any I missed.

First, here are those reserve round picks and the full draft board is at RTSports. Read the rest of this entry »


3 Breakout Catchers for 2023

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Several emerging backstops have given the position a bit of a renaissance right now and it feels the deepest it has been in quite some time. While that does offer more options lean on for quality production, it also means you need more production from the position to compete with your leaguemates. Here are 3 catchers I like to put up quality numbers behind the dish this year:

Tyler Stephenson | CIN

My Projection: .288/.359/.477, 19 HR, 72 R, 77 RBI, 1 SB in 506 PA

Stephenson was on his way to a breakout in 2022 before injuries derailed him and limited him to just 50 games. I’m right back on the train for 2023! The 26-year-old hasn’t delivered a ton of power yet (.158 ISO), but his 6’4, 225-pound frame says more in on the way, especially in that ballpark. The Reds also plan to utilize his bat more by way of starts at 1B and DH ($) which is always great for catcher-eligible bat. Power is plentiful in the upper rungs of the catcher ranks, pairing it with the batting average is what makes Stephenson special.

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Mining the News (3/9/23)

American League

Angels

Brett Phillips revamped his swing this offseason.

“I went through a full swing revamp this offseason, so this is all kind of new to me,” Phillips said. “But, it feels really good. I’m confident and feeling very encouraged with where I’m at, especially this early in Spring Training. I know we’ve got some time to iron out all the flaws with timing and mechanical stuff, but I feel like I’m in a good direction to be as successful as I can for this team.”

Mariners

Logan Gilbert added a splitter.

Specifically, and ironically given how effective it is, Gilbert’s fastball felt the least functional within his arsenal. He also unveiled the new split-changeup that’s been all the talk among his teammates, including Ray, who is also toying with it.

Last spring, it was the harder, firmer slider Gilbert added with consultation from Jacob deGrom that was all the rave. But Gilbert wound up taking a little off that pitch as the season went on. He recognizes that the split could be the same work in progress into the regular season.

Rays

Luis Patiño is throwing 96 mph (94.5 in ’22, 95.7 in 21) and has added a sinker.

The 23-year-old right-hander held Philadelphia hitless through 1 2/3 innings, walking two and striking out one while leaning on his mid-80s slider and 96 mph fastball in Tampa Bay’s 7-3 win. Even better for the Rays was that Patiño’s velocity didn’t dip from his first inning to the second, something that plagued him last year.

Along with a new sinker, Patiño said he’s working on throwing two types of sliders this year — one that acts like a cutter and another that breaks like a sweeper. Thirteen of his 29 pitches Tuesday were sliders, and according to Cash, some of them were giving Snyder flashbacks.

• The Rays are looking to extend Curtis Mead.

I might consider Mead in the last round or two of a redraft league to see if he signs and starts the season in the majors.

Royals

Nick Loftin added weight and hit a new career-high Exit Velocity.

After one month of “more,” Loftin crushed his goal of 190 pounds. He kept going and reached 205 before settling at 200, which he’s maintained since the start of big league camp. He also made a small change to his swing, getting rid of his toe tap and adopting a small leg kick, which helps him simplify the load in his swing and be on time with pitchers more consistently.

The results have been eye-opening.

On Saturday, Loftin hit his first spring homer to the left-field berm at Surprise Stadium, with an exit velocity of 107 mph. Loftin can’t remember a time he’s hit a ball that hard, if ever.

Loftin isn’t in play in the outfield just yet, but he could be once the other candidates start to struggle.

Tigers

• The team has decided to enter the 21st century by creating individualized throwing plans and focusing on injury prevention.

In a broad sense, the goal of the changes was to modernize the Tigers’ performance department. This spring, there are glimpses of what’s new. You see players training with metaballs or water balls and other new gadgets. There’s a host of nutrition staffers roaming around the complex. Throwing programs have supposedly become more individualized.

Those changes hint at what the Tigers are trying to accomplish in this realm. It is less about overhauling a specific training method or revamping throwing programs. Instead, the Tigers are trying to create a greater level of connectivity between all their departments.

That’s where they were lagging behind before. The Tigers’ training methods focused largely on treating the symptoms of injuries. Missing was a greater emphasis on injury prevention or incorporating data and science to identify injury risks before they happen.

Twins

Jose Miranda’s repaired shoulder is still an issue and won’t be able to play third base. The list replacement options are suboptimal.

He spent the offseason getting into better shape in preparation for the switch, but Miranda has been held back from throwing until the shoulder soreness is sorted out. In the meantime, he continues to be in the Twins’ lineup at DH.

“We’re still quite hopeful that he’s going to be ready to go Opening Day,” Baldelli said.

If the shoulder soreness isn’t resolved by the end of camp, it’s possible Miranda could begin the season on the active roster in a role similar to 2022, playing first base and DH to keep his bat in the lineup, especially if Alex Kirilloff still needs more time to return from August wrist surgery. Potential fill-in options at third base include Solano, Kyle Farmer, Nick Gordon and Willi Castro.

Joe Ryan perfected his sweeper and learned a split-change.

“He’s got the perfect (arm) slot for a sweeper,” Driveline director of pitching Chris Langin said of Ryan. “The main modification was an alteration to the grip. It was a spike on the index finger and it allowed him to stay in front of the ball when he threw it, which basically makes it when you’re in a game environment you’re not backing it up too much. … It was just pretty clear that if he can just develop some 50-grade secondary stuff, that’s going to help you a ton.”

Driveline also offers a strength and conditioning assessment and provides ideas on pitch design. With Ryan, Driveline also suggested he develop a split-changeup.

National League

Braves

Kyle Wright is still on track to miss just one start.

Going back to the start of Spring Training, the Braves have said they expect Wright to start during one of the regular season’s first two series. Progress over the past three weeks has only strengthened that opinion. The right-hander will throw live batting practice on Friday, and then possibly make his spring debut next week.

Cubs

Adrian Sampson 샘슨 is having issues differentiating his sinker and four-seamer.

Sampson said a main issue he is ironing out is creating more separation between his sinker and four-seam fastball. When those pitches are not functioning properly, the result is too many left over the middle. In a preseason setting, a pitcher has the luxury to work on such things.

“I’m very lucky it’s Spring Training — that’s the biggest thing right now,” Sampson said.

Dodgers

Noah Syndergaard’s fastball velocity was down for his first appearance after it averaged 94 mph last season.

Syndergaard’s first pitch was clocked at 91 mph. So was his next one. After a couple of heaters, his velocity did tick up to 92 mph, flashing 93 a few times. It was just his first start of the spring, but the lack of velocity was a bit surprising, even for Syndergaard himself.

The key for Syndergaard might be his ability to mix in his slider and changeup. In his first spring outing, his changeup was his best pitch, helping him toss two scoreless innings.

And was still down in his next start.

Daniel Hudson will probably not be ready by the start of the season.

That positions Hudson for a potential high-leverage relief role, though he might not ready right out of the gate. Skipper Dave Roberts told reporters this afternoon that Hudson’s availability for Opening Day is in question (relayed by Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times). While he’s seemingly past his ACL rehab, the 13-year veteran was delayed in camp after battling ankle tendinitis over the winter.

Padres

Ryan Weathers has a new windup.

Weathers has debuted a new over-the-head windup, along with crisper stuff.


An Exercise in Injury Impact

Last week I built two hypothetical fantasy teams. The first team, the ATC Swiss-Army Knives, was comprised of players from each of the first ten rounds (12-team) with the lowest ATC IntraSD measurement. The second team, the ATC Scary Single Blades, was built in the opposite way, taking the player in each round with the highest IntraSD. For kicks, I then built a third team that was a healthy mix of the two. Read the rest of this entry »


The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1153 – Team-by-Team Prospect Review: AL ft. Eric Longenhagen

3/7/22

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TEAM-BY-TEAM AL

Players Mentioned

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Mining the News (3/7/23)

American League

Athletics

• Paul Blackburn is expanding the usage of his changeup.

The changeup was always a pitch that Blackburn felt he didn’t use enough. In ’22, he threw just 43 changeups to right-handed batters. While last season was a breakout year, upping the usage of his changeup is something Blackburn thinks can help him reach a higher level as a pitcher.

“It gives me another weapon,” Blackburn said. “If I’m able to throw sinkers and changeups in, that’s going to open up everything for me. It’s another weapon that I can use. Going forward, being able to throw more changeups to righties will open up a cutter and curveball for me. It’s not just, as soon as I get two strikes, here comes the curveball.”

Blue Jays

• Kevin Gausman, who had to get a new windup, is still not comfortable with the new pitch clock.

The good news is, he made it through his five-out spring debut Friday without being called for a single balk. The bad news is, he said he felt as if he was rushing his delivery at times throughout a messy 30-pitch first inning. And that’s something his team is watching, because if this creeps into Gausman’s head, getting it out of there could be a lot more challenging than writing up any rule change.

“I think like anyone, you don’t want to be the guy that’s the poster boy for it,” said Blue Jays manager John Schneider, “where it’s like, ‘Oh, why are they attacking me? Why are they singling me out?’ But he’s been good (about it).”

Orioles

• The Orioles rotation currently consists of Kyle Gibson, Cole Irvin, Kyle Bradish, Dean Kremer, and Grayson Rodriguez.

Locks: Kyle Gibson, Cole Irvin

Gibson realizes his place in the starting five is assured, “barring a Spring Training meltdown.” Irvin didn’t make that type of proclamation earlier this week, when the 29-year-old left-hander said he feels his 81 games of big league experience isn’t enough to just be handed a spot.

The O’s are paying the 35-year-old Gibson $10 million this year and gave up talented shortstop prospect Darell Hernaiz to acquire Irvin from the A’s. They’re both in the Opening Day rotation.

In (as of now): Kyle Bradish, Dean Kremer, Grayson Rodriguez

These three right-handers came to camp as apparent front-runners, and they’ve each shown why. Bradish and Rodriguez (MLB Pipeline’s No. 7 overall prospect) each pitched two hitless innings in their Grapefruit debuts. Kremer allowed one run in five innings over his two outings before his imminent departure to go pitch for Israel in the World Baseball Classic.

Rangers

• Cole Ragans’s fastball is up about 3 mph.

Ragans averaged 92.1 mph last year on his four-seamer, hitting 94 mph or above only 15 times in the big leagues. Now, he’s sitting around 94-96 mph — and even topped out at 99 a couple times — in Cactus League play, raising more than a few eyebrows in Rangers camp.

To say the Rangers staff is injury prone would be an understatement, so Ragans will see some starts this year.

• With Leody Taveras likely to miss a few starts, Bubba Thompson will likely start the season as the team’s centerfielder.

The most likely solution is to have Thompson seize control of the position, and simply plug the second-year outfielder into Taveras’ spot in the lineup. Before Taveras’ injury, Thompson was expected to either serve as the fourth outfielder on the big league squad, due to his speed and defensive capabilities, or get every day at-bats back with Triple-A Round Rock.

Twins

• Last year, Sonny Gray was not ready for last season’s start leading to his injuries.

But his plans drastically changed two days later. Gray was en route to Reds camp in Arizona when he was traded to the Twins on March 10.

“I was extremely behind,” Gray said. “I was kind of under the impression the whole time we were going to get like two weeks because that’s kind of what we were told. I was under the impression, like, ‘OK, I’ll be OK.’ But then the lockout ended on Thursday and we had to report on Monday. I was like, ‘F—.’ I hadn’t thrown.”

The Twins knew Gray was behind. Everybody would be because of the lockout. But Gray never asked the Twins if he could miss the start of the season.

He made his regular-season debut in the Twins’ second game on April 9. During his second start a week later, Gray exited with a right hamstring strain after only 1 2/3 innings and was later placed on the injured list, one of three IL stints he’d endure in 2022.

White Sox

• Oscar Colas might be looking to steal more bases.

He showed the ability to hit the other way, which Colas worked on during the offseason, but also picked up a stolen base, which might be a new addition to his 2023 repertoire.

“I feel comfortable stealing,” Colas said. “The past couple of years, I didn’t have the chance to do it often. But ever since I came here, the manager told me, ‘You have good legs. Good speed. We want you to run.’ They’ve been giving me the chance and I’ve been taking advantage of it.”

“Colas can be an opportunistic basestealer,” White Sox manager Pedro Grifol said. “He’s got a lot of work to do on the bases.

National League

Cardinals

• Andre Pallante is not being stretched out as a starter.

A few items of particular note include that righty Drew VerHagen and lefty Zack Thompson, both of whom have been rotation options in the past, have been brought along on reliever schedules this spring. Sophomore righty Andre Pallante started 10 games for the Cards in 2022, but it seems the team is monitoring his workload even as he preps to pitch for Team Italy in the World Baseball Classic; the Cards have asked that Team Italy not push him beyond 45 pitches in any outing. Pallante is likely ticketed for a relief role in 2023, given the presence of Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty in the rotation (with Matthew Liberatore, Dakota Hudson, Jake Woodford and top prospect Gordon Graceffo all on hand as depth options).

Cubs

• Nico Hoerner will bat leadoff.

Hoerner has batted leadoff in all four games he has played this spring, the result of a plan manager David Ross had coming into camp.

“I think when I look at Nico, it’s about setting a tone for our group to start a game,” Ross said. “He’s as ready to go as anybody I’ve ever been around. Something about the way he plays, I think, sets a great tone for our team. So I like him starting things off.”

Ross informed Hoerner of his idea prior to Spring Training. While the manager isn’t ready to anoint the second baseman as his everyday No. 1 hitter for the regular season, it seems as though it’s Hoerner’s job to lose.

Dodgers

• David Peralta will start in left field against righties with Jason Heyward getting some time in center.

Peralta will pretty much be the everyday left fielder against right-handers, and it seems Jason Heyward has all but locked up a spot for himself as a left-handed bat who can play center field.

• The team will have a closer by committee until they don’t.

This season, Evan Phillips is the team’s best reliever, but the Dodgers are in no rush to take him out of the “fireman” role they value even more than a closer. Yency Almonte, Daniel Hudson, Brusdar Graterol and Alex Vesia could all close out games, but the team is in no rush to name a closer.

“I don’t think it’s a necessity,” Friedman said. “I think the most important question to answer is whether you think our bullpen is going to be really good, and we do. Then it’s about the mindset of each one of those guys, keeping them in the best headspace to go out and have a lot of success.”

Marlins

• Jordan Groshans is getting some reps at first base.

The Marlins are giving youngster Jordan Groshans time at first base this spring, as Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald reports. Groshans typically handled the other infield spots coming up through the minors, and spent just 40 previous innings at first. Groshans is on the fringes of cracking Miami’s opening day roster, but if he can show he can handle first adequately it would certainly provide a boost to his chances.

Mets

• The rotation is ailing with José Quintana and David Peterson hurt …

Two days before he was set to leave spring training for the WBC, José Quintana announced Sunday that he wouldn’t be suiting up for Colombia — the fallout of left side tightness that cut Quintana’s outing short Sunday. Quintana’s post on Instagram mentioned that he had experienced the tightness before Sunday and had hoped to pitch through it. He added that he is “trying to be ready for the start of the 2023 MLB season.”

After being hit in the left foot by a comebacker Saturday, David Peterson is day-to-day with a contusion.

… and Carlos Carrasco and Tylor Megill seeing reduced fastball velocity.

Phillies

• Contrary to previous reports, Brandon Marsh will not be in a platoon with Edmundo Sosa.

Edmundo Sosa: His center field experiment is more an insurance policy than a potential platoon scenario. The Phillies want to be sure they are covered if Brandon Marsh needs a day off, or if there is a particularly tough lefty on the mound. Sosa’s value is on the infield — especially if Alec Bohm or Rhys Hoskins is the DH on a given day.

• Trea Turner will bat leadoff with Kyle Schwarber hitting second.

Though Schwarber performed well in the leadoff spot last season, Thomson plans to use Turner at No. 1 and Schwarber at No. 2 to begin the season. As for Hoskins, Thomson isn’t yet set on him at the regular No. 3 spot — or on how the rest of the lineup will unfold in the absence of Bryce Harper, for that matter.

• Taijuan Walker is adding a splitter.

Phillies newcomer Taijuan Walker said at his introductory press conference in December that he was excited to showcase his splitter more in 2023 and to work with J.T. Realmuto, whom Walker called the “best catcher in the game.”


The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1152 – Post Hype Hitters

3/6/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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POST HYPE HITTERS

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Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – March 6th, 2023

Here is the transcript from today’s chat:
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A Definitive List of League Losers – The Hitters

Bad news, everyone – I come bearing ill tidings. Regardless of what you read, no matter how hyperbolic the verbiage, I’m afraid there is no such thing as a “league winner” in fantasy baseball. Not “rare” or “uncommon” – actually imaginary. Like, unicorns, imaginary. Read the rest of this entry »