The 2023 Pre-Draft Injury episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.
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3/13/22
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INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS
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Angels
• Griffin Canning is back to his old self and in the battle for the team’s sixth rotation spot.
But that’s behind him — at least for now — and Canning’s fastball velocity is up from what he’s shown in the past. His fastball averaged 93.5 mph in 2021, and over his first two Cactus League starts this spring (in which he’s given up one run over five innings), it’s been consistently hitting 95 mph.
Canning’s secondary stuff — a slider, a changeup and a curveball — has been playing well in his return, too. One of his sliders in the second inning Sunday led to Chicago’s Seby Zavala lunging at the pitch while the bat flew out of his hands toward third base, capping the second of three strikeouts Canning had on the afternoon.
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While Canning has looked good so far this spring, he does face some headwinds in his quest to fill the role — he has Minor League options remaining, whereas others in the group competing for the same job are out of them. That group includes left-hander Tucker Davidson and right-hander Chase Silseth.
As I did in the 1B piece, I’ll ask that we not get too hung up on the actual phrasing of “breakout” as at least one of these selections has undoubtedly broken out before so it’s almost a re-breakout that I have them doing in 2023. These are guys I like above their market price and have them easily outperforming said cost. I understand that a “breakout” is more a first time thing, but they aren’t necessarily “sleepers” (although there is usually at least one guy in each of these pieces that is more deep league-friendly), either, so I chose the better of the two words.
Max Muncy | LAD | +3B elig.
My Projection: .249/.374/.506, 33 HR, 87 R, 89 RBI, 2 SB in 583 PA
It’s time to get back on Muncy Train! He got his groove back at the end of last year as the elbow stopped causing him problems and the power returned with 12 HR in the final two months after just 9 through the first four. This is a hitter just one year removed from a 36-homer season with 94 RBI and 95 R. There has been a lot of talk about how the Dodgers lineup is one of the weaker ones in recent memory which will make it tougher for him to pull another 90/90 season, but a “weaker” Dodgers lineup still isn’t weak and thus an 80/80 campaign is well within reach.
Here is the transcript from today’s chat
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Let’s shift now from Lucky/Unlucky, where we’ve been for the last three installments, to another gimmicky approach that has proven surprisingly useful over the seasons. We refer to the Quadrinity. Brief history lesson: long ago, Bret Sayre, then of Baseball Prospectus, posited that “the three skills that are most important to the art of pitching [are] getting strikeouts, reducing walks, and keeping the ball on the ground,” and that pitchers who can do those three things, as betokened by their above-average numbers in those categories, are worth the attention of those of us who care about such matters. He called this approach The Holy Trinity. And it made sense to us.
Angels
• Chase Silseth added a cutter.
Silseth, ranked as the club’s No. 4 prospect by MLB Pipeline, is competing for the sixth spot in the rotation and made his second start of the spring in Wednesday’s 4-3 walk-off win over the Rockies, striking out five and allowing one run over four innings. He’s added a new pitch to his arsenal this year — a cutter — which he believes will especially help him against left-handed hitters.
What is a breakout? There are different definitions depending on who you ask. Can someone be a breakout if they’ve already broken out? For the purposes of this article, a breakout is someone I have projected well above their current ADP. They are going to “break out” from their draft slot and deliver more production than the market thinks. I guess I could’ve just titled this “3 First Basemen I Like More Than ADP”, but that’s a clunky title so work with me here!!
Here are 3 first basemen I like this year:
Wil Myers | CIN
My Projection: .265/.343/.493, 24 HR, 66 R, 71 RBI, 7 SB in 505 PA
I’ve been banging the Myers drum since he signed with Cincinnati so I’m sure no one is surprised to see him included here. I’d be interested in a slightly below average bat in Coors Lite aka Great American Ballpark let alone someone who has been a positive bat over his career (110 wRC+ in 4149 PA), only twice dipping below average. Health has certainly been a challenge for the 32-year-old 1B/OF, but that risk is covered in his price tag. Myers is going at pick 240 on average in the 19 Rotowire Online Challenge (henceforth referred to as “OCs”) drafts from March 1st-10th making him the 27th 1B off the board (58th at OF… I promise I won’t include in the 3 Breakout OFs, too!).
3/10/22
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!
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PATREON
INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS
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The Relief Pitcher episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.
Guest: Greg Jewett
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