Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – March 13th, 2023

Justin Mason: Chat will begin shortly. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

Vic: Please rank in a 12 Team 5 x 5 NL Only. Muncy 24, McNeil 20, McMahon 20, Fortes 7, Mikolas 6.

Justin Mason: Muncy, McMahon, Mikolas, McNeil, Fortes

Brian Arbour: We have a really late keeper deadline. Should I keep Spencer Torkelson at $10.

Justin Mason: Need the format and league size to answer

Brian Arbour: We have a really late keeper deadline. Should I keep Torkelson at $10.  AL-Only. $260 auction league. 4×4 (BA, HR, RBI, SB).

Justin Mason: There it is! I think that is an ok price, but it is not a must unless you are thinking more long term.

Datt Mamon: Do you think Lopez will get any save opportunities with the Twins, or is Duran the guy?

Justin Mason: I think it will be shared and very frustrating. The Twins like to use Duran in high leverage situations and that will happen outside the ninth a lot.

JamesGang: I can keep one: $12 Willson C., $16 Seiya, or a $10 Sewald … do I keep one, or throw them all back in a 14 team 5X5, $260 cap?

Justin Mason: In a two catcher league, I keep Willson, in a 1 catcher league, I keep Suzuki

BrandonMcKayDylanWalsh: Who is in the last tier of OF in your rankings that you’re comfortable rolling with in your 12 team mixed league?

Justin Mason: Kelenic, Marsh, Friedl, Margot, Donovan, Fraley

Greg: How are you tracking pitcher velocities? I’ve been looking on StatCast and for a spreadsheet but no success. Seems like the most notable (seen a few about Syndergaard) get stories but not sure otherwise.

Justin Mason: Ive been following the work of others like Jeff Zimmerman and Jon Anderson

BrandonMcKayDylanWalsh: In what round of a standard 12 team league do O’Neil Cruz & Jazz Chisholm start becoming bargains / the price for their K & injury concerns start getting baked in?

Justin Mason: I think after pick 75 I get interested, but it is unlikely either last that long. If you have a lot of IL spots, you can bump that up considerably.

Greg: Who do you have the most shares of in your leagues this year?

Justin Mason: TJ Friedl!

BrandonMcKayDylanWalsh: What Colorado hitters do you find yourself drafting? And why are they talking about resting guys at home?!

Justin Mason: I haven’t seen that they are planning on resting guys at home. I have been drafting a good amount of CJ Cron and Ryan McMahon and a little bit of Tovar.

BrandonMcKayDylanWalsh: How concerned are you about Seiya Suzuki & his oblique? I know he’s probably IL to start the year but what do you think his season-long outlook might be?

Justin Mason: I think the outlook is still pretty good, but I have knocked down his plate appearance projection to about 530

BrandonMcKayDylanWalsh: Do Jared Kelenic’s ST heroics change your projections for him at all…?

Justin Mason: Not really. I was already a buyer prior to the spring training “breakout” so I am still in on him, but I am not overpay for a few games against minor league pitching.

Buff: NL-only auction keeper, I can afford one big ticket infielder. Turner, Machado, or Albies for the next 3 years?

Justin Mason: Machado for me.

Justin Mason: Because I assume Turner will be a lot more expensive.

Rob: I know initial tests came back negative for a concussion, but does him getting hit impact your ranking for him in an OBP league?

Justin Mason: You didn’t say the player name…

Paulie Awesome: Hey, Jason —

Long-time listener/reader, first-time questioner here. (Love your stuff!) Got a two-ish parter here …

Are you playing in any H2H leagues this year? If so, how has it changed your work? I’ve been in one for a while, which means I’m always taking in typical fantasy analysis and filtering it accordingly to fit my context. Put most simply? Season totals mean less; it’s really all about having your best team in place by the time the playoffs start.

I have a loaded squad in my 12-team dynasty league (AVG/OBP/R/RBI/SB) and am contemplating trading Varsho for a big piece elsewhere, while drafting Endy Rodriguez and patiently waiting for his call-up. With the above-mentioned H2H strategy difference, is this crazy or brilliant?

Thanks!

Justin Mason: I am playing in a H2H league this year! It isn’t necessarily changing my approach though as I still want to dominate in the regular season. I don’t think the Endy strategy is a good one. Catchers can struggle to adjust more than most prospects because there is so much that goes into calling a big league game. It is also the Pirates who have shown they will play games with service time and while we think Endy will be up at somepoint, you can put it past the Pirates to mess around with him once he is.

Kyle: When is your Main Event draft this year? What’s your strategy?

Justin Mason: My Main Event is on Saturday March 25th in Vegas. I am still working on my strategy, but I will definitely have a pod on it after the draft.

jonno: I can take a one year “wait and see” on Alec Bohm at $3 or Triston McKenzie at $5 and re-sign next year at $8 or $10, respectively. If you want the wait and see on the pitcher, do you like Bohm at $8 ($260, 5×5)?

Justin Mason: I think I would rather have McKenzie

Buff: NL only auction keeper, which of the following is most likely to outperform his current price over the next 3 years: O’Neill, Castellanos, Yelich, Nimmo, Happ?

Justin Mason: Happ

Brian: Is Buxton vastly underrated this year in 10/12s or am I overly optimistic? Even if he gives you 100 games isn’t he still a bargain?

Justin Mason: How many times has he played in 100 game though? Also the rise in strikeout rate crushed his average and he doesn’t run like he used to. I am staying away in most formats.

Ghost of Tom Joad: In a shallow (12tm) H2H categories league with added cats of QS and K/BB (hitting categories also added to keep even), would you be more likely to draft more volatile staff and stream what doesn’t hit, or load up on more sure-thing studs early on? I can see opting for taking lottery picks in hopes that a few work, and counting on streaming if they don’t, but wondered your thoughts.

Justin Mason: I would load up on hitters and then play in the lower end of the pitcher pool.

Zach: Any clarity on the Red’s SS? Barrero seems to be hitting a bit better, but he’s still striking out a lot…

Justin Mason: I think it’s Newman’s job but Barrero will be on the roster at some point. I think they need to figure out if he is a part of the future.

Save Chaser: Rank these relievers from most saves in 2023 to least. Kimbrel, Fulmer, McGough, Hudson, Puk & Taylor Rogers. Looking to add 1 or 2 of them near the end of NL Only drafts

Justin Mason: Rogers, Fulmer, Hudson, Kimbrel, McGough, Puk

Zach: What does Outman need to do to secure the starting CF role?

Justin Mason: Not be Trayce Thompson

RTJ: Give me a viable reason to be optimistic about Spencer Torkelson in 2023

Justin Mason: I will not.

Justin Mason: He is still young and there is talent though. I am not writing him off.

Dodger Staff: Do you think any of Pepiot, Grove or Miller will reach 100 MLB innings this season? Gonsolin already starting the season on the IL, May on an innings limit and Kershaw/Thor with sketchy injury histories.

Justin Mason: I think any one of them could with Pepiot getting the leg up

PJ: What’s your updated innings/overall projection on David Peterson

Justin Mason: I have him for about 140 innings but it is risky because who knows what the Mets do in terms of opportunity. I think there are enough guys there that are old and injury prone that he will pitch a lot.

K2: Is there such a thing as having too many hitters from a bad team? 10-team NL only roto salary cap with OBP and TB. No bench. I’ve already got Stephenson and India as keepers. But Friedl and Steer are both on my watch list as later-stage values. Are 4 Reds too many?

Justin Mason: Yeah, I think it is a problem because the runs and RBIs can be an issue. I don’t want more than 2-3 guys on a bad team.

Kevin: It seems like the teams without a true closer keeps increasing year over year.  Does that cause you to draft a “sure thing” earlier or just wait longer?

Justin Mason: I go get earlier ones. You will pay for saves in the draft or in FAAB and I prefer to use my FAAB to fill holes or injuries.

rainmaker: Between Woodruff and McClanahan, who’s the bigger injury risk?

Justin Mason: I think McClanahan is but I am not afraid to draft either.

Tom: League where you can keep one guy that wasn’t drafted last year (6 overall keepers) but his draft spot this year is based on ADP which locks a week before draft. Worth it to keep Volpe and set his keeper price real late (keep them 3 rounds earlier each year after) even if he isn’t on the opening day roster?

Justin Mason: I think so if you are looking long term.

rainmaker: Will Kyle Tucker keep up the SBs with his declining Sprint Speed?

Justin Mason: I think he will be fine in stolen bases. Maybe he just keeps what he has instead of gains with the new rules though/.

Guest: Who are some of your favorite target for saves?

Justin Mason: I tend to pay up for saves so I am grabbing a lot of Edwin Diaz, Jordan Romano, Emmanuel Clase etc. The guys that are cheaper that I like are Alexis Diaz, David Bednar, Michael Fulmer, Dany Jimenez, Alex Lange, Carlos Estevez, and Kyle Finnegan

KevinT: How do you handle inflation prices as we approach the kickoff for the season. Is it case by case basis, where you will pay the inflated price for XYZ player, or do you naturally pivot to other options?

Justin Mason: I don’t change much of my prices on guys during spring unless there is actionable information. I have been prepping a long time and a few home runs or a couple spring outings doesn’t move the needle much for me. I am not going to overpay on hype alone.

Cubbies: Can Chris Morel bash his way to 20 homers or does the K rate kill him?

Justin Mason: The K rate destroys him. He had the worst zone contact in the Majors last season. He hasn’t looked good in spring from what I have heard too. I won’t be surprised if he starts the year in the minors.

John: Are you a believer in Riley? I’ll probably be choosing between him and Pete Alonso in the 2nd round and while I think Alonso is safer, I’m leaning towards position scarcity and filling 3B.

Justin Mason: I am a Riley believer. I just traded for him in a dynasty league yesterday and it cost me a lot. I would lean Riley here but you can’t go wrong.

Cliff Bar: If Benintendi represents the “low cost, high floor” option in OF, who is the opposite? I guy who is low cost with a high ceiling (but presumably an equally low floor)

Justin Mason: Ramon Laureano? Jarred Kelenic? Garrett Mitchell? There are a lot of them.

KevinT: You are 100% right in your injury prevalance fight with Sporer. If he believes all pitchers are the same risk of injury (relatively) then why isnt degrom his clear number 1 pitcher

Justin Mason: THANK YOU!!!

Fill: I have to cut 1 of these 9 players in a 10 team keeper points league: Vlad, T Turner, Witt, Harper, Schwarber, Springer, Verlander, Rodon, McClanahan

I’m torn between Rodon or Springer

Justin Mason: With the injury, I cut Rodon

Bill: My 8 team Al only roto auction draft is tonight (6×6, with obp and qs as kickers)! I know in monos, you are supposed to stay as balanced as possible, but the mid tier starter options scream meh to me. I’m keeping the mountain, Kirby, and Glasnow that I can stash on The IL. Thinking about getting another mid tier starter, and scraping the lower end of the barrel for starters and paying up to get Clase. The only other closers available will Be Romano, Jansen, Duran, Munoz, Sewald etc. I would be the only guy with 2 elite options at the backend. What say you?

Justin Mason: I don’t mind that at all because you can always trade for a different category later on once you have locked things up a little.

KevinT: I feel myself gravitating towards Twin pitching this year. Like Joe Ryan, Sonny Gray and Pablo Lopez. Any concerns about the more balance schedule for the team?

Justin Mason: Less concerned with the more balanced schedule and more concerned with the health risk of Gray and Lopez, Gray moreso.

PJ: Would you draft Cron over Mountcastle?

Justin Mason: Yes

KevinT: I am having trouble figuring out Miguel Vargas. I like him, but wondering if I am overrating him. Is he just a 280/15/15 guy or is there room for more? 280/15/15 is good, but thats Alex Verdugo mostly

Justin Mason: I think he is like a 20-25/10 guy that gains second base in season which is nice.

Phanatic: Does Seranthony retake the role at some point this year? Seems the best arm in the pen

Justin Mason: I think it bounces around all season, but that Dominguez leads the pack.

Joe Camel: Wesneski getting more and more hype. You buying?

Justin Mason: I like him a lot, but I don’t want to go crazy because the Cubs do have options. I definitely want another share or two.

HotDogHarold: How much are we predicting a return to form for Trevor Rogers in Miami? I’m considering a trade for him in a league where I could use SP help, but his season last year scares me.

Justin Mason: I have drafted a lot of Rogers this year as a bounce back gamble. He has looked good this spring so I am excited.

KevinT: Rank multi position players in terms of moving up to SECURE in a OC. Donovan, Parades, Kike Hernandez, Chris Taylor

Justin Mason: That is the correct order

E-man22: In a standard 5×5 league with an already solidl lineup, am I better off starting Shohei as a SP or DH. My DH is my only potential volatile position, I currently have O’Neil Cruz. And the rest of my staff is Gausman, Ray, Strider, Beiber, Darvish, Webb and Glasnow on the IL.

Justin Mason: Your staff looks pretty strong there so I would probably use him as a hitter mostly except when he has a really great start or your team needs change. For instance, the first weekend he should be a pitchers because of the short week and facing the A’s.

BrandonMcKayDylanWalsh: Jeff Zimmerman wrote in one of his mining the news articles Bud Black is talking about resting guys at home a little more to keep them fresh. Maybe it’s nothing, or maybe it’s Colorado being dumb.

Justin Mason: I hate the Rockies

Bleeper and the Sus: Does a shallow (12tm) H2H categories with daily transactions league alter your pitching strategy drastically? Willing to take on much more volatility, or transversely, need to stud up the SP rotation?

Justin Mason: Absolutely, being able to stream that easily makes it less likely I draft an early pitcher. I wouldn’t take one until the fifth or sixth round unless a great bargain fell to me. For instance, in the Sleeper and the Bust H2H categories listener league, I took Burnes and Woodruff, but only because they dropped and then I didn’t take another starter until the 13th round.

Guest: What do we think of Alek Thomas this year?  Watching the game last night and I forgot he’s only 22.

Justin Mason: I think he is a nice post hype sleeper. He is looking good in spring and might end up making the team now.n

Trevor: In a league with OBP/K’s as a category for hitters, would you rather Freeman or Betts?

Justin Mason: Freeman

Dan P: Will any of my prospects make a major league impact this season?

• Gavin Williams
• Colton Cowser
• Quinn Priester
• Kyle Harrison
• Casey Schmitt

Justin Mason: I think most of them make debuts at some point, but none of them are huge impact guys imo

Guest: Manaea worth $5 in a $400 FG points league? Am I overreacting to velo gains?

Justin Mason: He is definitely worth that small of a gamble.

Colton: Hey Justin, checking in this week to let you know I’m still ready to be hurt by Kikuchi for the 4th year in a row!

Justin Mason: I drafted him in the last round of BARF because I enjoy pain, but he also looks like he has a nice two start week to begin the season after opening weekend.

KevinT: Corey Seager has a wide range right now in his OC ADP. Ranging from 3rd rounder to 5th rounder. What is he for you and where does he average for MEs?

Justin Mason: He is probably a third/fourth round pick in the main events. Too rich for me.

Rob: Re initial question adding players name: I know initial tests came back negative for Starling Marte a concussion, but does him getting hit impact your ranking for him in an OBP league?

Justin Mason: Nah, as long as he is playing at somepoint this week, it doesn’t change much.

KevinT: What is your take on compilers like Mikolas and Kelly? Feels like they can be so inconsistent from year to year, dangerous to draft in a draft and hold?

Justin Mason: I like them in draft and holds because you need innings to compete. I like Mikolas a bit more because Kelly’s early schedule is a little rough and I like the defense in STL much more.

KevinT: I am having trouble getting news this year from Spring Training. Is it just me? I listen to 4 different pods, read everything on Fangraphs and Rotoballer, etc. But feels like there is legitimately less NEWS this year than normal. Other than Jordan Walker, no rookies making noise. Position battles seem to not be covered. Velocity readings up or down (except for Manaea and Rodon b4 he got hurt). Are you finding this too, or am I just not reading the right places (jeff does a great job mining the news btw, but I used to get more)

Justin Mason: I think the WBC throws things a bit. I am checking Rotowire and RotoWorld each night just to be on top of things.

Jeff!: I’m worried about all the infielders in Milwaukee re: Brice Turang’s plate appearances, but he’s been good in spring games so far. Your thoughts on how all that playing time shakes out?

Justin Mason: I don’t think he makes the team out of spring. The hype may have been a bit premature.

Paul Sporer: On a scale of 1 to Cedric Mullins, how handsome are you?

Justin Mason: I’m about a Brandon Marsh on that scale

tortycraig: my last keepers decision to make: OBP 5×5, 10 team, $260 cap – do you think it is worth taking the cost savings of Bregman at $24 keeper vs. J-Ram $47 keeper if I’ve got steals covered by Mullins, Lindor, J-Rod? Thank you! Would use that money to up my budget on 1B and SP

Justin Mason: I think I take the savings on Bregman there

Ari: In a H2H last year of a keeper league, which three would would you keep as my final keepers. Salvador Perez (round 12), Byron Buxton (round 11), Camilo Doval (Round 22), Andrew Vaughn (round 24), Cronenworth (round 19)? Other keepers are Rodon, Musgrove and Mullins.

Justin Mason: Vaughn, Doval are two. In a 1 catcher league I go Buxton and in a two catcher league I go Perez

Brett: 7×7 Roto (Standard plus Total Bases, OBP, Holds, K/9), 2 Keepers: Goldy, Trea Turner, Witt, Woodruff, Urias?  I’m leaning Turner/Witt or Turner/Woodruff…

Justin Mason: Turner and Witt

Justin Mason: Actually Turner and Woodruff

Justin Mason: man thats tough

Jimmy: Which late outfielder do you like most for RBIs? Friedl, Duvall, Stowers, or M. Carpenter (if he can sneak in OF eligibility)?

Justin Mason: For RBIs? I guess Duvall

Chip: Is Nathaniel Lowe good enough to be my starting 1B in a 12-team H2H league? It’s a 6×6 league, OBP and SLG, no Avg.

Justin Mason: Absolutely

Shake N Jake: 5×5 Auction league with 5 OF plus 1 Utility.  Right now my final two spots are covered by 2 of the following 3 players – Seth Brown ($6), Jake Fraley ($1) and Trey Mancini ($1). I’m a little worried about whether Brown and Fraley will get platooned and I’m deep in pitching.  Should I move a player like Justin Steele  or Maeda (both at $1) for someone like Benintendi ($2) or sit tight?

Justin Mason: I would definitely move one for Beni.

Craig: I see buzz / optimism on Nick Martinez but I look at his numbers and cannot connect the dots. Your thoughts on him for this season?

Justin Mason: I think he is fine for a deeper league, but I am not seeing a breakout.

Bambino: Last protect in NL 5×5, Adames, Tovar, or India?

Justin Mason: Adames

Craig: I sense quite a bit of pessimism around Bailey Falter’s potential, specifically for this upcoming season in the Phillies rotation. I am not entirely sure why that is the case. He finished the season on a nice run, especially over the last 9 appearances… including only 2 outings of more than 2 ER over that stretch. Over his last 9 GS, he had a 3.00 ERA and 3.74 FIP, 15 ER in 45 IP and only 6 HR allowed. His WHIP went up, his HR9 went down. And, his numbers were also suppressed by 4 outings out of the pen, in which he gave up 4 ER in 7 IP. As a starter, his season ERA was 3.76 in 16 GS. What am I missing here? Why isn’t there more excitement over a 25 year old that is in the Opening Day starting rotation for a team that is amongst the favorites to win the NL?

Justin Mason: Because he had an easy schedule and there was a lot of fear of him losing his spot to Painter. With Painter hurt the risk has lessened but the skills are still scary. He gives up a lot of contact and has a homer issue. He got lucky last year.

Bounce Back SPs: Matz, Manaea, Thor… Who do you buy the most?

Justin Mason: Manaea

Colton: Does Julien get a real run with the Twins this year? Everyone at camp raved about his bat before he left for WBC and if he does, is he worth a late round shot for the upside?

Justin Mason: I don’t know that there is a ton of upside unless you are in an OBP or points league with points for walks. He is the most passive hitter I have ever seen.

Mets Alums: Any thoughts on SFG corner PT split?  Villar, Davis, Flores, Wade…Does anyone get 500 PA?

Justin Mason: I do not think anyone gets 500. If one does, it is Flored.

Justin Mason: Flores

Ontilt1377: Keep Nestor or J Springs?
5×5 roto.

Justin Mason: Nestor

Neilage: It seems like Tommy Edman is getting no love despite a solid 2022 season. What gives?

Justin Mason: I think there are fears he hits towards the bottom of the lineup. I think there is a good chance that happens but I still think he gets his steals.

Mikey: Michael Harris or Corbin Carroll in a keeper, categories league?

Justin Mason: Carroll

Lertz: Michael Harris or Corbin Carroll in a dynasty format?

Justin Mason: Carroll

Peter: Thoughts on these 4 to start my 14 team Roto draft – Vlad, Riley, Albies, and Springer?

Justin Mason: Love that start!

Justin Mason: I am trying to get through as many questions as I can before I have to go.

olde guye: Hello. AL only keeper league, 260 Budget. Worth keeping any of Bradish, Bello, Tork at $10

Justin Mason: Bradish for me.

Capital Dan: AVG/OBP/SLG league. Which top prospect will have the best triple slash this year?

Justin Mason: CARROLL!!!

Kevbot034: What do you make of Michael Kopech this season? Is he anything worth rostering?

Justin Mason: I am intrigued. It is an upside play, but one cheap enough to make it worth it. Good reports in spring so far.

Guest: Who’s your favorite of Alec Bohm/Jose Miranda/Andrew Vaughn? I’ve got all 3 in a keeper currently and have no need/desire to keep all 3. OBP league that penalizes Ks

Justin Mason: Vaughn

Slapshot: What do you like more at the back end of the 2B pool?  A Whit Merrifield bounceback, or the boring “reliability” of someone like Wilmer Flores or Jean Segura?  5×5 standard roto scoring.

Justin Mason: Jonathan India has been my most common target. Also like Luis Garcia (WAS)

Justin Mason: Jonathan Schoop in super deep leagues too.

Guest: Any indications that Sean Manea is turning it around?

Justin Mason: Velocity is up and he has looked good in spring.

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

Justin Mason: MATT DAMON!

Matt: What is with the consensus hate on McKenzie? dude threw 191 innings, sub 1 whip and sub 3 era, was a top 15 prospect and plays for Cleveland. He just went behind Severino, Rodon, and Musgrove in my NFBC 50.

Justin Mason: I think it is most injury risk. Dude is built like Paul Sporer

hooha: In a keep forever league, how high would you look to take Jordan Walker?

Justin Mason: I took him in the fourth round of the sleeper and the bust dynasty league we are drafting right now

Trevor: Is Tatis at 14 too early in the same OBP/K league? I’m struggling in mocks to get enough SB’s without sacrificing a couple categories, and in a H2H league I only miss Tatis for about 4 weeks

Justin Mason: All about risk versus reward. I think he is probably worth it but there is a chance you get nothing from him.

KevinT: Josh Naylor. We should like him even more this year because he wont have to face lefties as much right?

Justin Mason: Yes as long as you are in a league deep enough or have daily lineup changes

Jerry: What’s the deal with airline food???

Justin Mason: Do they even serve food anymore? I am heading to NYC in a couple days, so I will let you know.

Justin Mason: Thanks for chatting with me! Please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!