Ottoneu teams get a whole extra month to complete trades after the official MLB trade deadline which means players get a little longer to evaluate their rosters before really committing to going for a championship or not. If you haven’t been following along with this series, I’ve covered my process of rebuilding this team, from the initial decision to rebuild, to the draft, to preparing to sell. I even detailed the thought process behind a huge blockbuster trade. For rebuilding teams, this is still one of the most exciting periods of the season, not just because of the trade activity, but because of the waiver wire activity too.

On July 13, an owner in Ottoneu League 32 – Fantasy Field of Dreams cut Mike Trout from his roster. That was about a week after Trout was placed on the IL with a fractured hamate bone in his hand, sidelining him for 4-8 weeks. That set off a chain reaction of moves that I’d like to discuss today.

Trout’s injury couldn’t have come at a worse time for this Ottoneu player; his team was in seventh place, well out of contention and stuck looking towards the future. I’m sure Trout would have been the centerpiece of a big trade at some point this summer as he looked to recoup any value from the superstar to bolster his roster for the years to come. Instead, he looked at the calculus of Trout’s injury timeline and the upcoming trade deadline and decided to simply cut his losses. Trout’s salary was $70 and no one claimed him on waivers at that price. An auction for him was started a day after he became a free agent and he wound up getting added for $55 by the fifth place team with an outside shot at making a run down the stretch. If Trout returns on the early end of his timeline, he’ll likely give that roster a boost right when it would be needed most.

Adding a $55 player during the draft is tough enough to fit into the $400 budget Ottoneu teams are afforded; it’s even tougher during the season. The owner who picked up Trout wound up cutting Carlos Correa ($40), Seiya Suzuki ($27), and Freddy Peralta ($16). This was when my eyes lit up. I wasn’t about to try and fit Trout onto my roster but all three of those cuts were interesting at the right price. Unfortunately, I did something silly; I mistakenly thought Peralta would go unclaimed on waivers and I’d be able to start an auction for him in a few days. I figured his struggles early this season would have driven down his value below his $16 price tag and I’d be able to win an auction at less than that salary. Instead, three other teams claimed him with the team that originally rostered Trout winning the claim.

Auctions were started for Correa and Suzuki pretty quickly and I entered my maximum bids for each of them. I had a bit of cap space and a handful of higher priced players I could cut to create some more. But I wasn’t looking to add either of those players to help my team this year, I wanted them at a reasonable price to keep for next year. That certainly affected the amount I was willing to bid on them. I bid $28 for Carlos Correa, second behind the winning team bid of $33. Correa’s struggles and questionable health this year don’t necessarily make him a slam dunk keeper for next year and $30 was where I drew the line. It was the same story for Suzuki; I bid $16 because of health and performance concerns and the winning bid was $22. The team who won Suzuki is currently in fourth place and could afford to allocate a few more resources in the hopes that Suzuki could contribute to his club this year.

That second round of auctions set off another domino effect and Shane Bieber ($36) and Teoscar Hernández ($21) were suddenly on the waiver wire as cuts. I liked both of these guys too, even though Bieber was on the IL with an elbow issue. If he was able to avoid surgery, he could be a nice piece for next year at the right salary. Auctions were started for both players and I wound up winning both for $20 and $14, respectively.

The owner who originally cut Trout came out of all this with Peralta and Correa on his roster. That’s not a bad swap and it looks even better considering he’s saving about $9 on Correa’s salary if he chooses to keep him for next season. I’m sure this player knew that simply cutting Trout instead of hoping for a desperate trade in late August might create this kind of domino effect. He didn’t know which players would fall into his lap, but clearing Trout’s salary and getting a couple of potential keepers is a nice consolation.

For my part, I would have preferred to roster any of the guys from that first round of cuts. I do like my consolation prize in Bieber and Hernández, however. I originally rostered the latter at the start of the season and I like his value much better with a $16 salary rather than the $21 I had him at before. And $20 for Bieber could be a nice bargain if he can get past this elbow issue and come back next year healthy and fresh. This little exercise demonstrates why keeping some open salary cap to add players like this during the season is so important. Plenty of bargains can be found on the waiver wire as teams navigate the long season, and every once in a while, a team will cut a high priced player like Trout and set off a long chain reaction that shakes up multiple rosters.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes first:

• There are a bunch of teams who have two off days next week and will only play five games as a result: the A’s, Braves, Marlins, Rays, Red Sox, Yankees. Since they won’t necessarily need a fifth starter, keep an eye on the probable pitchers listed on Sunday in case any of those teams decide to go with a four-man rotation and skip someone’s regular turn in the rotation.
• The Tigers and Giants would have played only five games next week but they had a rainout rescheduled for Monday. That means San Francisco will play in Washington this weekend, in Detroit on Monday, and then fly home to start a series against the A’s on Tuesday.
• The Twins easy schedule post-All-Star break continues next week with a pair of matchups against the Mariners (again) and the Royals. Every one of their starters have been pretty close to a must start all season long and you can just set them and forget them next week too.
• The Blue Jays and White Sox get a pretty tough slate of games next week. Toronto gets the double Los Angeles experience with one series on the road (at the Dodgers) and one at home (versus the Angels). The Cubs and Guardians may not seem like tough opponents on paper, but both teams have been hitting particularly well recently and both series will be played in the home run friendly confines of Guaranteed Rate Field.

Notable two-start pitchers:

• Justin Verlander
• Luis Castillo
• Eduardo Rodriguez
• Nathan Eovaldi
• Kenta Maeda
• Aaron Civale

Keeping track of the machinations of 30 major league bullpens is pretty tricky. In standard leagues, it’s hard enough trying to discern which relievers are earning save opportunities, especially since more and more teams are using a committee approach in the ninth inning. In Ottoneu, with both saves and holds earning points, that search for high leverage relievers becomes even more of a challenge. There are plenty of resources out there — the Roster Resource Closer Depth Chart is one of my favorites — but even the most vigilant fantasy player can’t keep track of everything going on across the majors.

Here are a few relievers who have been seeing high leverage usage over the last two weeks, who are also rostered in less than 60% of all Ottoneu leagues:

The Brewers have struggled to find someone to consistently set up Devin Williams in their bullpen hierarchy. Peter Strzelecki held that role for the first two months of the season but he was demoted to Triple-A after a rough patch in June. Abner Uribe has gotten plenty of attention as a possible high-leverage option based on his solid minor league track record but fantasy owners are currently overlooking the guy who is actually getting work in the eighth inning: Joel Payamps. Acquired alongside William Contreras in the big Sean Murphy trade this offseason, the Brewers have had Payamps really lean into his slider as a member of their organization and the results have followed. He’s struck out nearly 30% of the batters he’s faced this season and has collected a hold in 15 of his last 22 appearances while compiling a 1.21 ERA and 2.79 FIP during that stretch. Payamps isn’t the only reliever listed above; Elvis Peguero has been seeing a ton of high-leverage work recently as well. He’s earned a hold in eight of his last ten appearances, though his strikeout rate isn’t as strong as his bullpen-mate.

Lucas Sims and Grant Anderson were featured the last time I wrote about under-rostered relievers and their outlook hasn’t really changed all that much. The former has gotten his command issues under control and has continued to pitch in high-leverage situations in Cincinnati. The Rangers bullpen has been shaken up a bit by the addition of Aroldis Chapman and the injury to Josh Sborz. Anderson is currently listed as a middle reliever by Roster Resource but he earned a hold in his last outing. Then again, his last appearance prior to the All-Star break lasted four innings in mop up duty.

I don’t recommend chasing after high-leverage opportunities on teams like the A’s or the Royals since they’re so few and far between. If you did want to, Trevor May is the ninth inning guy in Oakland and readily available in most Ottoneu leagues. You may want to keep an eye on Shintaro Fujinami however. After being relegated to the bullpen after a month in the rotation, he’s started to figure things out recently. Over his last ten appearances, he’s run a 3.00 ERA backed by a 2.45 FIP and he hasn’t allowed a single walk while striking out 13. He hasn’t collected a hold or a walk in that time, but that’s more to do with his team context than his abilities.

High-leverage work in the White Sox bullpen has been a revolving door due to injuries and ineffectiveness. Gregory Santos might be the current beneficiary of all that churn; he’s collected three holds and a save across his last seven outings. His biggest issue as a prospect in San Francisco’s farm system was a lack of command. He’s managed to figure out that aspect of his profile — he’s walked just 5.0% of the batters he’s faced this year — while continuing to strike out a decent number of batters. The key has been swapping in a sinker for his four-seamer while continuing to rely on his fantastic slider as his primary pitch.

Speaking of teams who are struggling to figure out their bullpen, the Cardinals have now turned to Chris Stratton in high-leverage situations recently. At this point in his career, Stratton is a fairly well known quantity; his high-spin fastball and curveball combo give him a pretty solid foundation. Still, he doesn’t have the same kind of high ceiling as some of the other arms on this list. Chase the opportunity in St. Louis if you want, but be ready to cut him loose if he falls out of the high-leverage picture.

The Rays have surprisingly had one of the worst bullpens in baseball this year, specifically struggling to find guys to bridge from their starters to Jason Adam and Pete Fairbanks in the eighth and ninth innings. Amazingly enough, it might be their Rule-5 pick, Kevin Kelly, who is rising up the hierarchy recently. He’s a sidearming righty with a heavy sinker and a sweeping slider. His strikeout rate isn’t much to look at but his funky delivery and diving pitch movement make it nearly impossible for batters to elevate off him with authority. He hasn’t allowed a run since May 12 and he earned an easy hold in his first appearance after the All-Star break.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes first:

• With the All-Star break taking up the first half of this week, head-to-head matchups in most leagues will span July 14–23. In Ottoneu head-to-head leagues with a Games Started cap, players will need to wisely plan their matchups since the number of starts they have to cover is the same, only with three extra days in the matchup window.
• There are just a few teams who will start off the second half of the season with a string of easier matchups. Both the Twins and the Mariners are probably your best bet to set it and forget it with their entire rotations. Seattle has ten games at home following their All-Star hosting duties and two of their three opponents are particularly weak.
• On the other hand, there are a bunch of teams with a stretch of tough opponents following the midseason break. The Brewers, Cubs, Diamondbacks, and Reds all have particularly challenging matchups over the next ten days which makes it a bit of a risk to rely on any of their pitchers. Not only do Cincinnati’s opponents hit well, they’re also playing all three series at home in the most home run friendly ballpark in the majors.
• Keep an eye on how teams line up the back half of their starting rotations after this weekend. Most teams haven’t announced starters for games early next week, and the order they lineup their fourth and fifth starters could have an effect on their matchups next weekend.

Last week, we celebrated the Ottoneu Surplus Value All-Stars! They’re the guys who are rostered with low salaries but are producing like superstars. This week, I’m back with a look at the Ottoneu Surplus Value Un-Stars — those high-priced stars who have been duds dragging your team down the standings so far this season.

Above are the 20 least valuable hitters this year. It’s populated with guys who are either seriously underperforming, have been injured, or both. It’s also an interesting mix of younger players who are suddenly struggling — Luis Urías, Jose Miranda, and Josh Rojas all fit this bill — and a few older veterans on the downswing of their careers.

The player with the highest average salary above is Jose Altuve. He’s actually been as good as he has been in the past when he’s on the field, but he’s missed so much time due to injury, his surplus value is in the negative. Jazz Chisholm is another guy who has been productive when on the field, but injuries have really ruined his season. Then there are the players who have been both injured and ineffective. Look no further than Giancarlo Stanton, Tim Anderson, and Jesse Winker. These big name players haven’t played enough to amass much value for your team and when they have played, they’ve stunk.

Alejandro Kirk and Jose Miranda are two surprising inclusions on this list. Both had breakout seasons last year but have struggled to follow up that success this year. Kirk’s issues seem to stem from a loss of contact quality; his hard hit and barrel rates are both down significantly and his BABIP has fallen by nearly 50 points. His expected wOBA is slightly higher than the results he’s put together so far, but it’s still significantly down from what he produced last year. Miranda is suffering from the same issues of contact quality. And again, his BABIP is abnormally low and his expected wOBA is higher than his actual results. Still, his expected stats don’t exactly paint a rosy picture and he’ll need to continue working things out in the minor leagues.

Like the list of hitters, this list of pitchers is filled with injured stars or ineffective youngsters. Some injury risk was obviously baked into Jacob deGrom’s average salary, but losing him for all of this season and next is a brutal blow for teams who were rostering him. Tyler Glasnow’s value is an interesting story. He returned from the IL in late-May so he hasn’t had as much time to generate points. But he’s also really struggled with a big home run problem this year which is exacerbated in a format like Ottoneu.

Then there are guys like Alek Manoah and Luis Severino who have so seriously underperformed their relatively high salaries. The former’s return from his whirlwind development program in the Blue Jays farm system looked promising — he allowed just a single run over six innings against the Tigers and didn’t walk a single batter. If he’s figured out his mechanical issues, there’s still plenty of time left in the season to produce some value for teams. Severino’s issues are a little tougher to decipher. Every pitch in his repertoire is producing poorer results this year than in years past despite no significant changes in their physical characteristics. And it’s not like he’s getting unlucky either — opposing batters are simply crushing everything they see from him.

With the All-Star break and a four day break from the regular season right around the corner, I’ve decided to skip the Ottoneu Starting Pitcher Planner this week. Many teams will take this opportunity to reorder their starting rotations as they head into the second half of the season, which means the probable pitchers listed on the Roster Resource Probables Grid will likely change between now and next Friday.

Instead, I’ll take this opportunity to celebrate some of the players who have made the biggest contributions to our Ottoneu teams during the first half of the season. The highest scoring player so far has been Shohei Ohtani — no surprise there since he’s scoring in both pitching and hitting categories. If you look past the two-way sensation, Ronald Acuña Jr. and Kevin Gausman are the highest scoring players behind him. But not everyone can afford to roster an Ohtani ($54 average salary), Acuña ($54), or Gausman ($17). (Okay, Gausman is a little more attainable, but bear with me). If you’re rostering any of these top scorers, you’re probably towards the top of the standings in your league.

Instead, I want to celebrate the guys with tons of surplus value — the players who are rostered with low salaries but who are producing big numbers for your team. After all, the key to winning in Ottoneu year-after-year is identifying those players who can produce like superstars but cost a fraction of an Ohtani or Acuña. I pulled surplus value data from the FanGraphs Auction Calculator and then calculated the surplus value per dollar of salary to get a list of players who have produced the most value for the lowest cost. Let’s celebrate the Ottoneu Surplus Value All-Stars!

Above are the 20 most valuable hitters plus two catchers. Corbin Carroll leads the way as the seventh highest scoring batter this year. Spencer Steer and Luis Arraez are right behind him at ninth and tenth overall and their multi-positional eligibility has been a boon for the teams who are rostering them. The biggest surprise on this list has to be Jeimer Candelario, who is still shockingly available in nearly a quarter of all Ottoneu leagues.

The majority of this list is players in the middle of breakout seasons or bounce back seasons. That’s pretty unsurprising since those kinds of players are able to be rostered for cheap in the hopes that they hit it big. But just because they show up on this list doesn’t necessarily make them a shoe-in to be a keeper next year. Guys like Justin Turner and Andrew McCutchen are veterans in the middle of fantastic seasons but there’s no guarantee they’ll keep up the production next year.

On the pitching side of things, the story is largely the same. Nathan Eovaldi is the second highest scoring pitcher behind Gausman and Marcus Stroman and Mitch Keller are sixth and seventh overall. For the relievers, it’s essentially a list of the top scoring relievers with Félix Bautista and Alexis Díaz leading the way and Yennier Cano, Tanner Scott, Tyler Rogers, and Scott McGough all sitting inside the top 10.

The surprise inclusion on this list is probably Nick Martinez. He’s bounced between the rotation and the bullpen but he’s been productive no matter where he’s pitched. There are a number of pitchers on the list who are also shockingly under-rostered. Rogers is the sixth highest scoring reliever this season and he’s available in more than a third of Ottoneu leagues. I’m sure that roster percentage is being pulled down by 5×5 leagues that only value saves, but he’s clearly been one of the best relievers in baseball this year.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes first:

• Not many teams get a double helping of cake matchups next week. The Giants will head into the All-Star break with a homestand against two weaker offenses in the Mariners and Rockies. The Orioles also have a couple of easier matchups on paper next week, but they’re on the road and face a tough divisional matchup in the Yankees.
• The Brewers, Nationals, and White Sox have rough matchups in both their series next week. Lucas Giolito has a two-start week but I’d be pretty hesitant to start him against the Blue Jays and Cardinals at home. Depending on how you feel about Corbin Burnes this year, he looks like a pretty risky start against the on-fire Reds.
• A couple teams have wonky schedules next week. The Astros and Rangers wrap up a four-game series on Monday; Houston will host Colorado for two and the Mariners for four while Texas travels to Boston and Washington for a pair of three-game series. On the other end of the week, the Dodgers and Angels play a two-game series the weekend before the All-Star break with both teams taking Sunday off.
• It looks like there are a handful of starters slated to come off the Injured List next week, including Carlos Rodón, Tarik Skubal, Johnny Cueto, and José Quintana. I’d recommend waiting to see how they fair after their injuries, though Skubal’s start at home against the A’s looks really enticing.

Notable two-start pitchers:

• Joe Ryan
• Logan Webb
• Braxton Garrett
• Tyler Wells
• Cristian Javier
• Logan Gilbert
• Clayton Kershaw
• Blake Snell
• Shane Bieber
• Zach Eflin
• Miles Mikolas
• Bryan Woo

After taking a break from the pitching beat last week to write about my Ottoneu rebuild, I’m back with a look at a few under-rostered starters who have been performing particularly well the past few weeks. I’ve split the article into pitchers rostered in more than and less than 60% of all Ottoneu leagues to give a good spread of shallow and deep options.

Roster > 60%

Between this section and the section below, I’ve got three different Pirates starters listed; Johan Oviedo is the best of the bunch. He’s leaned into his two breaking balls as his primary weapons, while using his mediocre but hard fastball to set up those bendy pitches. He allowed three home runs in his first start of the season but has allowed just four across the 15 starts since. That alone tells you exactly how valuable he’s been in Ottoneu. xFIP thinks he’s been a bit lucky with his home run rate but batters are having all sorts of trouble putting his breaking balls in play with any authority; he’s running a .289 and .254 expected wOBA on his slider and curveball, respectively.

Taijuan Walker is in the middle of a very impressive stretch; across his last four starts, he’s allowed just two runs while striking out 26 in 26 innings. This hot streak coincides with a two-tick increase in velocity across his repertoire. He’s also reduced the usage of his four-seam fastball in favor of his sinker and cutter. Along with his excellent splitter, he’s focusing his efforts on his best pitches and is paying dividends. As long as this bump in velocity sticks around, Walker is a worthwhile target if he’s still on the waiver wire in your league.

Seth Lugo was recently activated off the Injured List and has made a pair of solid starts against the Giants and Nationals. In his transition back to the rotation this year, he had exceeded expectations with a decent strikeout rate and a fantastic walk rate. His xFIP is right in line with his actual results and he should continue to be an unexciting innings eater with decent ratios this summer.

The knock on Luis L. Ortiz was a lack of a third offering to pair with his excellent slider and hard fastball. He’s throwing a changeup around 14% of the time this year, almost exclusively to left-handed batters, and it’s been a nice addition to his repertoire. It’s got a bit of swing and miss to it and it’s producing a .308 expected wOBA. The thing to monitor will be his ability to command his pitches; his walk rate is pretty high and he hasn’t counteracted those free passes with a high strikeout rate. The whiffs should come, especially with his slider continuing to dominate, but it seems like he’s still a work in progress.

Roster < 60%

With Yusei Kikuchi, you know you’re getting a ton of strikeouts offset by lapse in command and a penchant for allowing a ton of home runs. That’s not a great combination, particularly in a format like Ottoneu points leagues. Still, when things are going right, he can be a useful option in your rotation. Over his past five starts, he’s walked only five batters while striking out 33. That’s a phenomenal strikeout-to-walk ratio. Of course, he’s also allowed five home runs in that timeframe so all his woes haven’t been solved, but he’s still managed to accumulate 5.2 points per innings pitched during this stretch.

Matthew Boyd is another pitcher who’s home run problem has prevented him from truly succeeding in Ottoneu. That hasn’t really changed this year; his home run rate isn’t as bad as it has been in the past, but it’s still an issue. Over his last four outings, he’s racked up seven or more strikeouts in three of them while walking just three batters total. He’s currently generating whiff rates higher than 30% on three of his pitches, giving him an impressive collection of weapons.

Paul Blackburn missed most of the first two months of the season due to a spring finger injury. He returned in late May and has struck out more than a quarter of the batters he’s faced in his five starts this season. That’s easily a career high strikeout rate for him and it looks like he’s building on the breakout that he enjoyed last year. The biggest change for him so far is an increase in the number of sliders he’s throwing. That pitch was re-introduced to his repertoire last year and it’s been a huge swing-and-miss pitch for him this season.

Every once in a while, a pitcher will come out of nowhere to make a big splash in the majors. This year, that guy is Osvaldo Bido. He’s never been ranked on a Pirates prospect list and his minor league track record is spotty at best. He reached Triple-A as a 25-year-old in 2021 and finally made his major league debut this season. Across his first three starts in the big leagues, he’s allowed just six runs with a perfectly acceptable 3.60 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Something must have clicked for him because he’s always run high walk rates. If he can keep avoiding the free passes, he’s a name you could try speculating on.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes:

• The A’s are lined up to face the Yankees and White Sox next week at home. Both of those opponents have been struggling offensively recently and the Coliseum is a fantastic pitcher’s park. This is a pretty good opportunity to start whichever Oakland starters you’re rostering.
• The Blue Jays, Marlins, and Tigers have some pretty rough matchups next week. Both Toronto and Miami face the tough Red Sox offense; the former gets the red hot Giants in their first series of the week and the latter gets the Braves in a huge divisional showdown next weekend. Detroit will travel to Texas to face the potent Rangers offense and then travel to Colorado over the weekend. If you’re rostering any of the Tigers starting rotation, keep them on your bench next week.
• The Dodgers are the other team to visit Coors Field next week, making Clayton Kershaw and Bobby Miller pretty risky starts. Thankfully, they head to Kansas City afterwards, giving the other half of their rotation some really nice matchups over the weekend. It’s also possible Julio Urías will end up making his return from the IL in that series against the Royals.

Notable two-start pitchers:

• Luis Castillo
• Spencer Strider
• Framber Valdez
• Nathan Eovaldi
• Ranger Suárez
• Taj Bradley
• Yu Darvish
• Zac Gallen
• Tyler Wells
• Garrett Whitlock
• Kevin Gausman
• Sonny Gray
• Michael Kopech
• Paul Blackburn
• Gavin Williams

We’re approaching the busiest part of the season as teams who have designs on competing are looking to make their moves to bolster their rosters ahead of the final stretch this fall. A few weeks ago, Chad Young wrote up his process of deciding who to keep and who to sell on one of his Ottoneu rosters. I’d like to go through the same effort for my roster in Ottoneu League 32 – Fantasy Field of Dreams. If you’ve been following along with this series, I’ve covered my process of rebuilding this team, from the initial decision to rebuild, to the draft, to the ups and downs of the regular season.

I’ve already made three moves with an eye towards the future:

1. My $3 Kyle Manzardo for $9 Jazz Chisholm Jr.
2. My $6 Michael Conforto and $3 Luis Garcia (2B) for $12 Ryan Mountcastle
3. My $43 Bryce Harper and $21 Teoscar Hernández for $48 Corey Seager and $3 Taylor Ward (I previously wrote up my thought process for this trade)

Seager has been absolutely phenomenal this year and is looking like he’ll be well worth his $50 price tag next year, assuming he doesn’t get hit with arbitration dollars. Ward has also been hitting well recently, giving me hope that his early season slump was just a bump in the road and that he’ll be a solid keeper at $5 next year. Unfortunately, Chisholm has been sidelined with a toe injury and Mountcastle has continued to struggle despite some promising peripherals.

The first step is deciding who is going to make up the core of next year’s team. No one is untouchable but there are certainly players who are more available than others. Going through the process of identifying and sorting your roster with an eye towards next year is an important exercise for any team, even if you’re towards the top of the standings. Here’s how I view my roster shaking out right now:

These nine guys should form the core of my next competitive roster. It would be ideal if Franco was a little cheaper, but his breakout this season and sky high ceiling justify his salary. I didn’t expect to have two catchers listed in this group, but Murphy and Heim are both slugging the ball and both look like they’ve taken a significant step forward this year. I’ve got a solid little group of pitchers here too headlined by Kirby.

I’m a little worried that I don’t have any outfielders in the group above. It’s become increasingly difficult to fill five slots with solid contributors and that was a concern of mine when I moved Harper for Seager. Steer is on track to gain OF eligibility for this year and next but I’d rather use him as a super utility guy rather than locking him into a spot in my outfield.

I’d have to be blown away by the offer to move any of these guys right now.

These five I expect to be keepers but there’s a bit of risk they might not pan out the way I expect. Keeping a $9 Torkelson is probably a bit crazy, but he’s been hitting much better recently and still has his prospect pedigree working in his favor. If he finishes the season strong, he could be a nice fit on my roster. Kelenic’s breakout has slowed down a bit after a very hot start; I think the adjustments he’s made are for real but there’s always a chance he falls back into his bad habits. I thought Ward was a great buy low target at his salary; he should be a keeper if he continues to hit like he has this month.

This group is filled with guys who are fairly priced and I could see myself keeping a handful of them. I’d also be open to moving any of them if the right deal materialized. I’ve already gotten a number of inquiries about Seager but I acquired him for Harper. If I was going to flip him, I’d want to get commensurate value in return which isn’t what other owners seem like they’re interested in giving up. I expect to enter 2024 with Seager and Franco locking down two of my infield positions.

I’ve got a large group of pitchers here who all seem like pretty good values for their salaries. Detmers and Rogers still have something to prove and they’re the most expensive of the bunch. I almost put Gonsolin and Suárez in the top tier of automatic keepers but I think there are enough question marks surrounding them that I left them here.

Here’s where most of my outfielders appear too. Keeping Gurriel at $16 would be pretty tough even though he’s posting career highs in hard-hit and contact rates. De La Cruz and McCarthy have both been up and down during their short careers; if they can finish this year strong, they both become interesting keepers.

If I keep all 26 players in these three tiers, I’d head into next season with $307 in committed salary plus an unknown amount of arbitration that could be as high as $33 or as low as $11. Let’s assume the final total falls somewhere closer to the high end. With 14 roster spots to fill and around $60-$70 of free cap space, I need to move some of these high priced players on the bubble to get my roster in the right shape for next year.

Here’s the list of guys I’d be happy to move or am planning on cutting at the end of the year. Muncy is probably the most valuable player above and I have a standing offer involving him that I’ve been sitting on. I’ve also had a surprising number of inquiries about Baz. At his salary, he wouldn’t be hard to keep, but the injury history is a huge red flag and I think I’d be able to get more value from him in a deal than from keeping him.

Abreu could potentially have some value to a team if his midseason hot streak continues and he’s able to start producing around his career norms over the second half of the season. All of my relievers are listed here too since Romano is really the only one with enough value to realistically keep.

Going through the effort of organizing my roster like this has helped me see that I’ve got too many players on the keep/sell bubble and they’re all a little too expensive to hold onto all of them. I’ll need to find some creative deals to reduce the amount of salary I’m planning on keeping next year to give me more room in the draft to add to my roster. I’ll update my trade block with these guys and hope to move some of them for cheaper pieces.