Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: April 22–28

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. To start the season, I’ll be relying on projected team wOBA until there’s sufficient in-season data to start calculating these matchup ratings.

April 22–28
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI @STL (115) @SEA (108) Brandon Pfaadt (x2), Jordan Montgomery, Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly 켈리 Ryne Nelson
ATL MIA (151) CLE (138) Reynaldo López (x2), Max Fried, Chris Sale, Charlie Morton Darius Vines
BAL @LAA (54) OAK (169) Grayson Rodriguez (x2), Corbin Burnes Albert Suárez 수아레즈, Dean Kremer, Cole Irvin
BOS @CLE (127) CHC (88) Tanner Houck (x2) Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford Cooper Criswell (O), Naoyuki Uwasawa (?)
CHC HOU (59) @BOS (72) Shota Imanaga, Javier Assad Jordan Wicks (x2) Jameson Taillon, Kyle Hendricks
CHW @MIN (154) TBR (97) Garrett Crochet Erick Fedde 페디 Chris Flexen 플렉센 (x2), Jonathan Cannon, Michael Soroka, Nick Nastrini
CIN PHI (66) @TEX (66) Hunter Greene (x2), Andrew Abbott (x2), Nick Lodolo Graham Ashcraft, Frankie Montas
CLE BOS (70) @ATL (41) Ben Lively 라이블리 (x2), Carlos Carrasco, Triston McKenzie, Logan Allen, Tanner Bibee
COL SDP (61) HOU (23) Austin Gomber (x2), Ryan Feltner, Dakota Hudson, Kyle Freeland, Cal Quantrill
DET @TBR (147) KCR (113) Tarik Skubal (x2), Jack Flaherty Reese Olson, Casey Mize Kenta Maeda
HOU @CHC (97) @COL (50) Justin Verlander Hunter Brown, J.P. France, Cristian Javier Ronel Blanco
KCR TOR (104) @DET (181) Brady Singer (x2), Michael Wacha (x2), Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo Alec Marsh
LAA BAL (34) MIN (120) Reid Detmers (vMIN) Reid Detmers (vBAL), Patrick Sandoval Griffin Canning, Tyler Anderson, José Soriano
LAD @WSN (129) @TOR (56) Tyler Glasnow (x2), Yoshinobu Yamamoto Walker Buehler (?) Gavin Stone, James Paxton
MIA @ATL (41) WSN (174) Edward Cabrera, Trevor Rogers (vWSN) Jesús Luzardo, Ryan Weathers Trevor Rogers (@ATL), A.J. Puk
MIL @PIT (149) NYY (32) Freddy Peralta DL Hall Joe Ross (@PIT), Wade Miley (@PIT), Colin Rea Joe Ross (vNYY), Wade Miley (vNYY)
MIN CHW (174) @LAA (54) Pablo López (x2), Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober Chris Paddack (vCHW) Louie Varland, Chris Paddack (@LAA)
NYM @SFG (163) STL (102) Luis Severino, Sean Manaea Jose Quintana (x2), José Buttó Adrian Houser
NYY OAK (145) @MIL (68) Carlos Rodón (vOAK), Marcus Stroman (vOAK), Clarke Schmidt, Nestor Cortes Luis Gil, Marcus Stroman (@MIL) Carlos Rodón (@MIL)
OAK @NYY (36) @BAL (72) JP Sears (x2), Paul Blackburn (x2) Joe Boyle, Alex Wood, Ross Stripling
PHI @CIN (61) @SDP (97) Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola Ranger Suárez, Cristopher Sánchez, Spencer Turnbull Taijuan Walker (?)
PIT MIL (97) @SFG (163) Jared Jones (x2) Mitch Keller, Martín Pérez Bailey Falter (x2), Quinn Priester
SDP @COL (50) PHI (104) Dylan Cease (vPHI) Joe Musgrove, Michael King (vPHI) Dylan Cease (@COL) Michael King (@COL), Matt Waldron, Randy Vásquez (?)
SEA @TEX (66) ARI (90) Logan Gilbert (x2), Bryce Miller, Luis Castillo, George Kirby Emerson Hancock
SFG NYM (113) PIT (167) Logan Webb, Jordan Hicks Keaton Winn (x2), Blake Snell, Kyle Harrison
STL ARI (113) @NYM (88) Sonny Gray Lance Lynn (x2), Steven Matz Kyle Gibson, Miles Mikolas
TBR DET (174) @CHW (136) Zack Littell (x2), Ryan Pepiot, Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale Tyler Alexander
TEX SEA (104) CIN (88) Nathan Eovaldi Jon Gray (x2) Dane Dunning, Michael Lorenzen Jack Leiter
TOR @KCR (113) LAD (52) Yusei Kikuchi (@KCR), Kevin Gausman (@KCR), José Berríos Kevin Gausman (vLAD) Chris Bassitt, Yusei Kikuchi (vLAD), Yariel Rodriguez
WSN LAD (54) @MIA (174) MacKenzie Gore, Trevor Williams Patrick Corbin (x2), Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker

A few general schedule notes:

  • The Braves and Rays look like they have pretty easy schedules next week. Tampa hosts the Tigers before traveling to face the hapless White Sox next weekend while Atlanta hosts the Marlins and Guardians. The Giants also have six games at home next week which should be a boon to their starting rotation.
  • On the other hand, the Reds and Guardians have tough slates next week. Cincinnati hosts the Phillies before heading out to face the Rangers on the road while Cleveland hosts the Red Sox and then travel to Atlanta over the weekend.
  • The Astros have a weird week with two off days and just five games including two in Colorado next weekend.
  • The Phillies might activate Taijuan Walker from the IL next week. Keep an eye on their rotation to see how they handle his activation while allowing Spencer Turnbull to continue his hot start to the season.
  • The Red Sox will need to make a roster move to find a fill in for the injured Garrett Whitlock on Sunday. Right now, Naoyuki Uwasawa is listed on the Probables Grid. In addition, Boston used Cooper Criswell as a bulk reliever behind an opener yesterday. If they continue that pattern next week, make sure he’s in the right SP or RP slot in your lineup depending on how the Sox deploy him.

Jake Mailhot is a contributor to FanGraphs. A long-suffering Mariners fan, he also writes about them for Lookout Landing. Follow him on Twitter @jakemailhot.

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