Archive for Dynasty

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: July 8–14

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

July 8–14
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI ATL (141) TOR (104) Zac Gallen (x2), Brandon Pfaadt Tommy Henry (?), Ryne Nelson Slade Cecconi
ATL @ARI (106) @SDP (66) Chris Sale (x2), Max Fried, Reynaldo López Charlie Morton (x2), Spencer Schwellenbach
BAL CHC (141) NYY (88) Corbin Burnes, Grayson Rodriguez Dean Kremer (vCHC), Albert Suárez 수아레즈 Cade Povich, Dean Kremer (vNYY)
BOS OAK (128) KCR (141) Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford Brayan Bello (x2), Josh Winckowski
CHC @BAL (53) @STL (123) Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon (@STL) Jameson Taillon (@BAL), Kyle Hendricks, Hayden Wesneski
CHW MIN (31) PIT (110) Garrett Crochet Erick Fedde 페디 Drew Thorpe, Jonathan Cannon Chris Flexen 플렉센, Mike Clevinger
CIN COL (121) MIA (128) Hunter Greene Nick Lodolo (?), Carson Spiers Andrew Abbott (x2), Frankie Montas
CLE @DET (165) @TBR (123) Tanner Bibee Gavin Williams (x2), Ben Lively 라이블리 (x2) Logan Allen, Carlos Carrasco
COL @CIN (88) @NYM (77) Cal Quantrill (x2), Ryan Feltner Dakota Hudson (x2), Kyle Freeland, Austin Gomber
DET CLE (106) LAD (88) Jack Flaherty (x2), Tarik Skubal Reese Olson Kenta Maeda (x2), Keider Montero
HOU MIA (150) TEX (82) Ronel Blanco (vMIA), Framber Valdez Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco (vTEX) Shawn Dubin, Spencer Arrighetti
KCR @STL (123) @BOS (79) Michael Wacha, Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo Alec Marsh, Brady Singer
LAA TEX (68) SEA (106) José Soriano, Davis Daniel (vSEA) Davis Daniel (vTEX), Tyler Anderson Roansy Contreras (x2), Griffin Canning
LAD @PHI (24) @DET (165) Tyler Glasnow Gavin Stone, Bobby Miller (@DET) Bobby Miller (@PHI), Landon Knack, James Paxton
MIA @HOU (26) @CIN (88) Trevor Rogers (x2), Kyle Tyler, Roddery Muñoz, Yonny Chirinos, Edward Cabrera
MIL PIT (123) WSN (108) Freddy Peralta Tobias Myers, Aaron Civale Colin Rea (x2) Dallas Keuchel
MIN @CHW (119) @SFG (132) Bailey Ober, Pablo López, Joe Ryan David Festa (x2), Simeon Woods Richardson
NYM WSN (130) COL (161) Christian Scott (x2), Luis Severino, Sean Manaea Jose Quintana (x2), David Peterson
NYY @TBR (123) @BAL (53) Nestor Cortes, Gerrit Cole Carlos Rodón (@TBR) Marcus Stroman, Luis Gil, Carlos Rodón (@BAL)
OAK @BOS (79) @PHI (24) Joey Estes (x2), JP Sears, Mitch Spence Hogan Harris, Luis Medina
PHI LAD (40) OAK (99) Zack Wheeler (x2), Ranger Suárez Cristopher Sánchez, Aaron Nola Michael Mercado
PIT @MIL (42) @CHW (119) Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller Luis L. Ortiz (x2) Bailey Falter, Martín Pérez (@CHW) Martín Pérez (@MIL)
SDP SEA (134) ATL (126) Michael King (x2), Dylan Cease Matt Waldron Randy Vásquez
SEA @SDP (66) @LAA (79) Logan Gilbert (x2), Luis Castillo, George Kirby Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo (?)
SFG TOR (115) MIN (90) Logan Webb Jordan Hicks (x2), Kyle Harrison Blake Snell (?) Hayden Birdsong
STL KCR (165) CHC (148) Sonny Gray Miles Mikolas (x2), Andre Pallante (x2), Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson
TBR NYY (95) CLE (99) Ryan Pepiot (x2), Zach Eflin, Taj Bradley Shane Baz, Zack Littell
TEX LAA (104) @HOU (26) Max Scherzer Jon Gray (@LAA), Nathan Eovaldi Michael Lorenzen, Andrew Heaney, Jon Gray (@HOU)
TOR @SFG (132) @ARI (106) Yusei Kikuchi (x2), Chris Bassitt, Kevin Gausman Yariel Rodríguez, José Berríos
WSN @NYM (77) @MIL (42) Jake Irvin (@NYM), MacKenzie Gore Mitchell Parker (vSTL), Jake Irvin (@MIL) DJ Herz, Mitchell Parker (@MIL) Patrick Corbin

A few general schedule notes:

  • A few teams have pretty wonky schedules next week as the season heads into the All-Star break. The Mets wrap up a four-game, wrap around series against the Pirates before hosting a couple of pretty easy matchups in the Nationals and Rockies at home. While I won’t recommend every starter in their rotation, you can feel pretty good about starting Christian Scott for both of his games as well as Luis Severino and Sean Manaea.
  • The Nationals also have a four-game, wrap around series against the Cardinals that wraps up on Monday. That gives Mitchell Parker a more palatable start before his tougher matchup against the Brewers later in the week.
  • Not only does St. Louis have that weird Monday game, they have a two-game series against the Royals, an off day on Thursday, and then a four-game set against the Cubs that includes a scheduled double-header on Saturday. The off day means they can keep their entire staff on schedule without having to callup a spot starter for the twin bill over the weekend. And like the Mets, all three of their opponents next week look pretty weak; it’s an easy call to start most of their starters next week.
  • The Cubs don’t have the same luxury the off day affords the Cardinals so keep an eye on who their announced starters are for that weekend series.

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: July 1–7

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

July 1–7
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI @LAD (47) @SDP (101) Zac Gallen Brandon Pfaadt Jordan Montgomery Ryne Nelson (x2), Slade Cecconi
ATL SFG (87) PHI (61) Reynaldo López (x2), Chris Sale, Max Fried Charlie Morton Spencer Schwellenbach
BAL @SEA (139) @OAK (162) Grayson Rodriguez, Corbin Burnes Albert Suárez 수아레즈, Cade Povich, Cole Irvin Dean Kremer (?)
BOS @MIA (193) @NYY (78) Kutter Crawford (@MIA), Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck Brayan Bello Josh Winckowski
CHC PHI (61) LAA (129) Justin Steele Shota Imanaga Jameson Taillon, Kyle Hendricks, Hayden Wesneski (vLAA) Hayden Wesneski (vPHI)
CHW @CLE (66) @MIA (193) Garrett Crochet, Erick Fedde 페디 (@MIA) Erick Fedde (@CLE) Drew Thorpe, Jonathan Cannon Mike Clevinger (?)
CIN @NYY (78) DET (108) Hunter Greene Carson Spiers Andrew Abbott, Frankie Montas Graham Ashcraft (x2)
CLE CHW (158) SFG (75) Tanner Bibee Gavin Williams (?), Ben Lively 라이블리, Triston McKenzie Logan Allen
COL MIL (56) KCR (134) Ryan Feltner (vKCR) Austin Gomber (x2), Ryan Feltner (vMIL), Dakota Hudson, Cal Quantrill, Kyle Freeland
DET @MIN (63) @CIN (103) Tarik Skubal (x2), Jack Flaherty Reese Olson Kenta Maeda, Casey Mize
HOU @TOR (96) @MIN (63) Framber Valdez Hunter Brown (@TOR), Ronel Blanco Spencer Arrighetti (x2), Hunter Brown (@MIN)
KCR TBR (111) @COL (35) Brady Singer (vTBR), Michael Wacha Alec Marsh, Cole Ragans Seth Lugo, Brady Singer (@COL)
LAA @OAK (162) @CHC (136) Tyler Anderson Davis Daniel Roansy Contreras (x2), Zach Plesac, Griffin Canning
LAD ARI (63) MIL (63) Tyler Glasnow Gavin Stone Bobby Miller (x2), Landon Knack, James Paxton
MIA BOS (80) CHW (193) Trevor Rogers Valente Bellozo (x2), Kyle Tyler, Roddery Muñoz, Yonny Chirinos
MIL @COL (35) @LAD (47) Freddy Peralta Tobias Myers Bryse Wilson (x2), Dallas Keuchel (x2), Colin Rea
MIN DET (153) HOU (103) Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan Simeon Woods Richardson (vDET), Pablo López David Festa, Simeon Woods Richardson (vHOU)
NYM @WSN (108) @PIT (172) Tylor Megill, Luis Severino Christian Scott (?), Sean Manaea David Peterson (x2), Jose Quintana
NYY CIN (103) BOS (40) Gerrit Cole Luis Gil (x2), Carlos Rodón, Marcus Stroman, Nestor Cortes
OAK LAA (155) BAL (75) Mitch Spence (vLAA) Joey Estes, JP Sears, Mitch Spence (vBAL) Hogan Harris, Luis Medina
PHI @CHC (136) @ATL (42) Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sánchez, Ranger Suárez Aaron Nola Michael Mercado (x2)
PIT STL (141) NYM (49) Jared Jones (vSTL), Mitch Keller Paul Skenes, Jared Jones (vNYM) Martín Pérez Bailey Falter
SDP @TEX (125) ARI (94) Dylan Cease Michael King, Matt Waldron Adam Mazur (x2), Randy Vásquez
SEA BAL (42) TOR (99) Luis Castillo (x2), George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller Jhonathan Diaz
SFG @ATL (82) @CLE (66) Logan Webb Jordan Hicks (x2) Blake Snell (?), Spencer Howard Hayden Birdsong
STL @PIT (172) @WSN (108) Sonny Gray Kyle Gibson (x2), Miles Mikolas, Lance Lynn Andre Pallante
TBR @KCR (139) @TEX (125) Ryan Pepiot, Zach Eflin, Taj Bradley Zack Littell (x2) Aaron Civale
TEX SDP (80) TBR (75) Max Scherzer Nathan Eovaldi Jon Gray, Michael Lorenzen, Andrew Heaney
TOR HOU (73) @SEA (139) Kevin Gausman Yusei Kikuchi, Chris Bassitt, José Berríos (@SEA) José Berríos (vHOU) Yariel Rodríguez (x2)
WSN NYM (16) STL (108) MacKenzie Gore (vSTL) MacKenzie Gore (vNYM), Jake Irvin DJ Herz, Mitchell Parker Josiah Gray (?), Patrick Corbin

A few general schedule notes:

  • The Orioles have a pretty nice West Coast road trip next week against the punchless Mariners and A’s. Dean Kremer is on the verge of returning from the IL, so pay attention to his status and the member of the rotation he bumps out.
  • The Angels also have a pair of easier matchups against the A’s and Cubs, but their starting rotation is such a mess, I can’t really recommend starting anyone from their staff except for Tyler Anderson. Davis Daniel did have a brilliant debut yesterday, so if you want to take a flier on the unheralded prospect, he’s got a pretty cushy matchup for his second start of his career.
  • The Brewers have the unenviable task of traveling to Colorado for four games and then heading to Los Angeles to face the high-powered Dodgers offense. Freddy Peralta avoids a start in Coors so he might be the only viable starter from their rotation, but you could risk a start from Tobias Myers against the Rockies if you’re feeling really lucky.
  • Along with their tough series against the Brewers, the Dodgers will also host the Diamondbacks who are hitting particularly well right now. You’ll probably want to wait to see if Bobby Miller can put together a strong start before inserting him back into your lineups — his start against the White Sox this week was pretty ugly.

Ottoneu Drip: Finding Under-rostered Pitchers: June 25, 2024

We’re a little less than half way through the regular season and the search for useful pitching is never ending. Here are a handful of pitchers who are rostered in under 60% of all Ottoneu leagues who could be nice pickups if you’re looking for an option to fill in for an injured starter or looking for another bullpen piece.

Under-rostered Starters, Last 3 Starts
Player Team IP FIP K-BB% Stuff+ Pts/IP Roster%
Jameson Taillon CHC 19 3.09 19.7% 88 5.20 55.8%
Miles Mikolas STL 19.1 2.32 15.5% 88 6.74 34.2%
Tobias Myers MIL 17.1 2.91 15.6% 92 5.85 22.6%

Jameson Taillon started off the season strong, got hurt, returned and struggled for a few weeks, and has finally come back around to find some success over his last three starts. Against the Rays, Cardinals, and red-hot Mets, he’s allowed just three runs in 19 innings with a phenomenal 6.0 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Unlike Myers above, Taillon has earned his success despite seeing rather normal looking batted ball peripherals. He’s probably worth an add during this hot streak if he’s available in your league.

Miles Mikolas has always enjoyed some on-again, off-again success as an innings-eater for the Cardinals. Last year was a down season for him but he’s regained some of the strikeouts that he had lost; his K% is now back up closer to where it was in 2022 when it reached a career high 19%. There really isn’t all that much that’s different in his profile — being so dependent on the command of his entire repertoire, he can go through tough stretches when he isn’t locating very well. Right now, he’s got a good feel for his pitch mix and has spun three excellent starts in a row. None of the teams he’s faced during this stretch have been all that impressive — at home against the Pirates and Giants and away at the Cubs — but it’s probably worth riding the hot streak if you’re desperate for pitching.

Tobias Myers has been thrust into a much larger role than expected thanks to all the injuries the Brewers have suffered in their pitching staff. He struggled after making his debut in late April but he’s settled into the big leagues and has been particularly impressive in June. Across four starts this month, he’s allowed just two runs while compiling a pretty good 3.0 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He’s definitely benefitting from some good batted ball luck — his BABIP allowed this month is a measly .182 — but he’s also cut his barrel rate allowed in half. Looking under the hood, he’s increased the usage of his mediocre fastball in June, though he’s run a .307 expected wOBA with his heater during this hot streak. More impressively, he’s running whiff rates higher than 30% on both his slider and changeup which gives him two pretty decent weapons to attack batters with once he’s established the fastball.

Under-rostered Relievers, Last 14 Days
Player Team IP FIP K-BB% gmLI Stuff+ Pts/IP Roster%
Sam Hentges CLE 5.2 2.09 21.1% 0.95 104 9.86 38.6%
Dedniel Núñez NYM 5.1 2.58 42.1% 1.07 122 8.67 32.3%
Colin Poche TBR 7.2 1.71 24.0% 1.49 87 9.32 19.4%
Zack Kelly BOS 8.1 0.87 37.0% 1.42 108 10.41 1.9%

It’s tough to stand out in the Guardians elite relief corps but Sam Hentges has quietly put up some solid numbers over the last few years as a less heralded member of Cleveland’s bullpen. He’s back to his usual dominance this year, with career-best strikeout and walk rates so far. There are four pitchers ahead of him in the bullpen pecking order, but as a left-handed pitcher, he gets opportunities to pick up holds against teams with particularly difficult left-handed batters. Over the last two weeks, he’s earned three holds across six appearances.

With the Mets bullpen a mess, Dedniel Núñez has earned a number of high-leverage opportunities since being recalled from the minors at the tail end of April. Ranked 33rd on their pre-season prospect list, Núñez has nasty stuff but a lack of command has really held him back from truly standing out as a relief prospect. He’s managed to gain a much better feel for his pitch mix this year — he’s allowed just three walks all season long — and that’s helped his raw stuff play to its strengths. With his recent background as a starter, New York has been using him in a multi-inning role, which has allowed him to accumulate a ton of Ottoneu points pretty quickly.

As long as he has good feel for his slider, Colin Poche will be a useful high-leverage option in the Rays bullpen. He’s been super effective since being activated off the IL a few weeks ago after missing a month with a back injury; over his last eight outings, he hasn’t allowed a run and has only allowed five baserunners. He’s probably sitting either second or third in line behind the closer Pete Fairbanks but is still seeing plenty of high-leverage work.

Zack Kelly earned a shot in the big leagues after going undrafted and getting released multiple times thanks to a pretty big increase in fastball velocity in 2022. He didn’t really stand out in limited work that year and the following season, but he’s in the midst of a breakout season so far this year. The biggest difference, beyond maintaining his improved velocity, is the introduction of a sweeper and cutter to his pitch mix. The breaking ball, in particular, has been something he had struggled to develop over the years, and now that he’s finally comfortable with one, he’s flourished. He’s earned a bit of high-leverage work recently alongside a couple of gigs opening for a bulk reliever. He’s struck out 16 this month against just three walks, a significant improvement over the 10 free passes he handed out over the first two months of the season.


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: June 24–30

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

June 24–30
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI MIN (76) OAK (165) Brandon Pfaadt (vMIN), Zac Gallen (?) Jordan Montgomery, Slade Cecconi Ryne Nelson
ATL @STL (134) PIT (128) Reynaldo López (x2), Chris Sale, Charlie Morton (@CHW), Max Fried Spencer Schwellenbach (x2)
BAL CLE (80) TEX (156) Grayson Rodriguez, Corbin Burnes Albert Suárez 수아레즈 Cade Povich (vCLE), Cole Irvin, Dean Kremer (?)
BOS TOR (113) SDP (56) Tanner Houck (x2) Kutter Crawford Brayan Bello, Nick Pivetta
CHC @SFG (130) @MIL (63) Justin Steele (@SFG), Shota Imanaga Jameson Taillon, Javier Assad, Justin Steele (@MIL) Kyle Hendricks (@SFG) Kyle Hendricks (@MIL)
CHW LAD (9) COL (78) Garrett Crochet (vCOL) Garrett Crochet (vLAD) Erick Fedde 페디, Drew Thorpe (vATL), Mike Clevinger (?) Chris Flexen 플렉센 (x2)
CIN PIT (91) @STL (134) Nick Lodolo (x2), Hunter Greene (x2) Frankie Montas Andrew Abbott, Carson Spiers
CLE @BAL (76) @KCR (106) Tanner Bibee (@KCR) Tanner Bibee (@BAL), Ben Lively 라이블리 Gavin Williams (?), Logan Allen, Triston McKenzie
COL @HOU (54) @CHW (108) Cal Quantrill Ryan Feltner Austin Gomber, Dakota Hudson, Kyle Freeland (?)
DET PHI (80) @LAA (67) Tarik Skubal (x2), Jack Flaherty Reese Olson Casey Mize (x2), Kenta Maeda
HOU COL (95) @NYM (100) Framber Valdez Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco Spencer Arrighetti, Jake Bloss
KCR MIA (182) CLE (93) Cole Ragans (x2), Seth Lugo (vMIA), Brady Singer Michael Wacha (?), Seth Lugo (vCLE) Alec Marsh
LAA OAK (121) DET (113) Tyler Anderson (x2), Patrick Sandoval Griffin Canning (x2), Chase Silseth (?), Zach Plesac
LAD @CHW (108) @SFG (130) Bobby Miller, Gavin Stone, Tyler Glasnow James Paxton (@SFG) James Paxton (@CHW), Landon Knack
MIA @KCR (106) @PHI (32) Braxton Garrett Trevor Rogers, Jesús Luzardo Roddery Muñoz (x2), Yonny Chirinos (x2)
MIL TEX (128) CHC (95) Freddy Peralta (x2) Tobias Myers Bryse Wilson, Colin Rea, Carlos Rodriguez
MIN @ARI (80) @SEA (113) Joe Ryan (x2), Bailey Ober, Pablo López Simeon Woods Richardson Chris Paddack
NYM NYY (67) HOU (110) Tylor Megill Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, Jose Quintana, David Peterson
NYY @NYM (100) @TOR (110) Gerrit Cole (x2), Luis Gil, Nestor Cortes Carlos Rodón Marcus Stroman
OAK @LAA (67) @ARI (80) Mitch Spence, JP Sears Luis Medina (x2), Joey Estes, Hogan Harris
PHI @DET (158) MIA (123) Aaron Nola (x2), Ranger Suárez (x2), Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sánchez Taijuan Walker
PIT @CIN (108) @ATL (87) Paul Skenes Mitch Keller, Jared Jones Bailey Falter (x2), Luis L. Ortiz
SDP WSN (123) @BOS (56) Matt Waldron (vWSN), Dylan Cease Yu Darvish (?), Michael King, Matt Waldron (@BOS) Randy Vásquez
SEA @TBR (165) MIN (54) Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert Bryan Woo (x2), Bryce Miller
SFG CHC (141) LAD (67) Jordan Hicks, Logan Webb Blake Snell (?), Spencer Howard (vCHC), Keaton Winn Spencer Howard (vLAD)
STL ATL (119) CIN (139) Sonny Gray Lance Lynn (x2), Miles Mikolas, Kyle Gibson (vCIN) Kyle Gibson (vATL) Andre Pallante
TBR SEA (113) WSN (139) Taj Bradley (x2), Ryan Pepiot, Zach Eflin Zack Littell, Aaron Civale
TEX @MIL (63) @BAL (76) Nathan Eovaldi, Max Scherzer Jon Gray (x2), Michael Lorenzen, Andrew Heaney, Dane Dunning
TOR @BOS (56) NYY (41) Chris Bassitt (x2), Kevin Gausman (x2), Yusei Kikuchi José Berríos Yariel Rodríguez
WSN @SDP (76) @TBR (165) MacKenzie Gore, Mitchell Parker, Jake Irvin DJ Herz Patrick Corbin (x2)

A few general schedule notes:

  • Atlanta has a couple of easier matchups next week but they also have a makeup game scheduled for Thursday in Chicago. That means they’ll travel to St. Louis for the first half of the week, make their one-day stop on the Southside, and then head home to face the Pirates. It looks like Charlie Morton and Drew Thorpe are the two pitchers scheduled to start in that game.
  • Philadelphia also has a pair of easier matchups next week against the Tigers and Marlins, and the only reason why that Miami series isn’t colored blue above is because they’re playing in Philadelphia and the comfy confines of Citizens Bank Park.
  • The Blue Jays have a pretty tough slate of games against the Red Sox in Fenway and then the Yankees at home. It also looks wise to fade starters from the Rangers too; they’re on the road against the Brewers and Orioles.

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: June 17–23

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

June 17–23
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI @WSN (121) @PHI (63) Brandon Pfaadt Zac Gallen (?) Slade Cecconi (@WSN), Ryne Nelson, Jordan Montgomery Slade Cecconi (@PHI)
ATL DET (155) @NYY (44) Max Fried (vDET), Reynaldo López Chris Sale, Max Fried (@NYY) Spencer Schwellenbach, Charlie Morton
BAL @NYY (44) @HOU (53) Corbin Burnes Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez Albert Suárez 수아레즈 (x2), Cole Irvin
BOS @TOR (129) @CIN (68) Nick Pivetta (@TOR), Tanner Houck Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, Nick Pivetta (@CIN) Cooper Criswell
CHC SFG (100) NYM (44) Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga Javier Assad (x2) Jordan Wicks, Jameson Taillon
CHW HOU (78) @DET (175) Garrett Crochet, Erick Fedde 페디 Drew Thorpe, Jonathan Cannon (@DET) Jonathan Cannon (vHOU) Chris Flexen 플렉센
CIN @PIT (165) BOS (32) Nick Lodolo, Hunter Greene Andrew Abbott, Frankie Montas Carson Spiers (x2)
CLE SEA (97) TOR (134) Tanner Bibee Ben Lively 라이블리 Triston McKenzie (x2), Logan Allen, Carlos Carrasco
COL LAD (15) WSN (114) Cal Quantrill (x2), Austin Gomber (x2), Ryan Feltner, Ty Blach, Dakota Hudson
DET @ATL (124) CHW (172) Reese Olson (x2), Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty Casey Mize, Kenta Maeda
HOU @CHW (114) BAL (36) Ronel Blanco (@CHW), Framber Valdez Hunter Brown, Justin Verlander, Spencer Arrighetti, Ronel Blanco (vBAL)
KCR @OAK (175) @TEX (124) Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo Alec Marsh (x2), Brady Singer, Michael Wacha (?)
LAA MIL (63) @LAD (19) José Soriano (x2), Tyler Anderson, Patrick Sandoval Griffin Canning, José Suarez
LAD @COL (70) LAA (92) Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow James Paxton (vLAA) James Paxton (@COL), Walker Buehler, Bobby Miller (?), Gavin Stone
MIA STL (158) SEA (134) Jesús Luzardo Braxton Garrett (x2), Max Meyer (?) Roddery Muñoz, Trevor Rogers
MIL @LAA (97) @SDP (68) Freddy Peralta Carlos Rodriguez (x2), Tobias Myers (x2), Bryse Wilson, Colin Rea
MIN TBR (143) @OAK (175) Pablo López (x2), Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack Simeon Woods Richardson
NYM @TEX (124) @CHC (95) Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, Tylor Megill David Peterson (x2), Jose Quintana
NYY BAL (36) ATL (136) Carlos Rodón, Nestor Cortes (vATL) Nestor Cortes (vBAL), Luis Gil, Gerrit Cole (?), Marcus Stroman
OAK KCR (148) MIN (117) Mitch Spence, Joey Estes, JP Sears Hogan Harris (x2), Luis Medina
PHI SDP (24) ARI (34) Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez, Zack Wheeler Cristopher Sánchez (x2) Taijuan Walker
PIT CIN (92) TBR (148) Mitch Keller, Jared Jones, Paul Skenes Bailey Falter (x2) Luis L. Ortiz (S)
SDP @PHI (63) MIL (95) Dylan Cease Matt Waldron, Michael King (vMIL) Michael King (@PHI) Randy Vásquez (x2), Adam Mazur
SEA @CLE (85) @MIA (202) Bryce Miller (x2), Bryan Woo, Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert
SFG @CHC (95) @STL (143) Jordan Hicks (x2), Logan Webb Kyle Harrison Spencer Howard Keaton Winn
STL @MIA (202) SFG (117) Sonny Gray (x2) Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson Miles Mikolas Andre Pallante
TBR @MIN (92) @PIT (165) Taj Bradley, Zack Littell, Ryan Pepiot, Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale (@PIT) Aaron Civale (@MIN)
TEX NYM (32) KCR (109) Nathan Eovaldi Jon Gray (x2) Michael Lorenzen, Andrew Heaney, Dane Dunning
TOR BOS (46) @CLE (85) Yusei Kikuchi (x2) Chris Bassitt, Kevin Gausman, José Berríos Yariel Rodríguez
WSN ARI (51) @COL (70) MacKenzie Gore Jake Irvin (vARI) Patrick Corbin, DJ Herz, Mitchell Parker, Jake Irvin (@COL)

A few general schedule notes:

  • On Thursday, June 20, the Cardinals and Giants will play their game at Rickwood Field in Birmingham, Alabama. The listed field dimensions (321 ft to left, 393 to center, and 332 to right) are comparable to that of Petco Park, though that stadium in San Diego also has the marine layer to suppress offense. Those dimensions are smaller than the average MLB stadium, though renovating the walls and possibly moving them was on the list of preparations for this game. If St. Louis and San Francisco stick with their current rotation, Andre Pallante and Keaton Winn should be the scheduled starters for this game and neither is worth going out of your way to start in an unknown offensive environment.
  • The Angels, Nationals, Orioles, and Phillies all have tough matchups on the docket next week. There are just a handful of pitchers who are matchup proof on those teams, but the majority of their pitchers are safe to avoid.
  • The Marlins and Twins have pairs of easier matchups on the schedule. Miami might also be recalling Max Meyer this weekend and he’d slot into one of those easy matchups at home next week if he isn’t sent back to the minors.
  • We could see the activation of Gerrit Cole, Zac Gallen, and Bobby Miller off the IL next week. None of them have truly desirable matchups on the calendar, particularly Miller who could be activated only to have a start in Coors Field lined up.

Ottoneu Drip: Finding Under-rostered Pitchers: June 10, 2024

Now that we’re more than two months into the season, we can do a bit of digging to see if we can find pitchers who have improved from month-to-month, specifically looking at Stuff+ since it’s pretty reactionary to changes in a pitcher’s repertoire. Here’s a handful of pitchers who are rostered in under 50% of all Ottoneu leagues who could be nice pickups if you’re looking for an option to fill in for an injured starter or looking for another bullpen piece.

Under-rostered Starting Pitchers, Last 3 Starts
Player Team IP FIP K-BB% Stuff+ Apr Stuff+ May & Jun Pts/IP Roster%
JP Sears OAK 19 2.94 12.0% 106 96 6.11 43.8%
Spencer Arrighetti HOU 14 3.51 16.4% 67 87 5.24 30.0%
Albert Suarez BAL 14 2.51 12.3% 86 88 6.00 24.7%
Joey Estes OAK 18.1 1.90 20.9% N/A 101 7.23 8.8%
Mitch Spence OAK 18.1 2.39 11.6% 101 102 6.02 5.6%

There are three starters from Oakland listed above which is a bit of a surprise. JP Sears is the most recognizable of that trio as he’s enjoyed spurts of success over the last two seasons. His downfall has been a particularly bad home run problem — something that particularly hurts his value in Ottoneu. In an effort to curtail those long ball woes, he’s adjusted his pitch mix to feature his sweeper as his primary pitch while also increasing the usage of his sinker to try and generate more contact on the ground. His flat four-seam fastball will always encourage fly ball contact but he generates the majority of his swings-and-misses with that pitch so he needs to strike a balance between whiffs and contact management. Recently, he’s been able to thread that needle; over his last three starts, he’s allowed just seven runs in 19 innings while running a pretty good 2.80 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and most importantly, keeping the ball in the park.

The other two Oakland starters are a bit more unproven. Mitch Spence was a rule-5 pick this offseason and is getting a chance to prove himself in the rotation over the last few weeks or so. Across his first five starts in the majors, he’s allowed just nine runs in 26 innings and is running a solid 3.00 strikeout-to-walk ratio out of the rotation. His underlying Stuff+ metrics look pretty decent, with his slider standing out in particular. He’s also running a groundball rate over 50% which gives him a little more value in Ottoneu if he can continue avoiding the long ball.

Pressed into the rotation for the same reasons Spence was, Joey Estes is making the most of it as well. A clunker of a start against the Astros back on May 16 is weighing heavily on his results, but outside of that ugly outing in Houston, he’s allowed six runs in 23.1 innings in his other four starts with a great strikeout-to-walk ratio. Stuff+ also loves his slider and cutter and his command of his four-pitch mix has been outstanding so far.

Spencer Arrighetti has taken a while to acclimate to the big leagues but he’s been on a pretty good run of starts recently. He’s allowed four runs across his last 14 innings with 19 strikeouts. His biggest issue is his lack of command; his walk rate is pretty high and he’s allowed at least two free passes in each of his starts this year. His Stuff+ scores have improved pretty dramatically from the first month of the season, with most of the improvements stemming from his fastballs. He’s in the same zone as Sears where his heaters get crushed when batters put them in play, but he’s also generating a significant number of whiffs with the pitch. Right now, he’s found that balance between earning swings-and-misses while also avoiding too much hard contact.

With injuries decimating the Orioles rotation, Albert Suárez 수아레즈 is getting another shot as a starter. So far, he’s allowed just seven runs in 29.1 innings out of the rotation. All the things I said about him back on April 23 still hold true:

“His calling card is a mid-90s fastball with plenty of carry that he can command at the top of the zone. Batters have swung and missed on nearly 20% of the heater’s he’s thrown in his two starts so far. That’s a ridiculous whiff rate, especially for a fastball. His repertoire is rounded out with a changeup and cutter, both of which are returning decent results so far.”

The ridiculous whiff rate on his fastball has fallen to merely above average with more exposure to big league hitters, but he’s still putting up solid results anyway. His ceiling might not be as high as expected based on his first three starts of the year, but he’s a solid fill-in starter who can provide quality innings for your team.


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: June 10–16

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

June 10–16
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI LAA (156) CHW (170) Brandon Pfaadt Ryne Nelson Jordan Montgomery (x2), Slade Cecconi
ATL @BAL (59) TBR (117) Chris Sale, Max Fried Reynaldo López, Charlie Morton Spencer Schwellenbach (x2)
BAL ATL (130) PHI (98) Corbin Burnes (x2), Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez Albert Suárez 수아레즈 (x2), Cole Irvin
BOS PHI (80) NYY (35) Tanner Houck Kutter Crawford (x2), Nick Pivetta Cooper Criswell, Brayan Bello
CHC @TBR (137) STL (89) Javier Assad, Ben Brown, Shota Imanaga Jameson Taillon, Justin Steele Jordan Wicks (?)
CHW @SEA (150) @ARI (115) Erick Fedde 페디 (x2), Garrett Crochet Jake Woodford (x2) Nick Nastrini, Chris Flexen 플렉센
CIN CLE (30) @MIL (43) Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo Nick Martinez, Andrew Abbott, Frankie Montas
CLE @CIN (41) @TOR (76) Tanner Bibee Ben Lively 라이블리 Triston McKenzie, Logan Allen, Carlos Carrasco
COL @MIN (117) PIT (98) Cal Quantrill Austin Gomber, Ryan Feltner Dakota Hudson (x2), Ty Blach
DET WSN (163) @HOU (76) Jack Flaherty (vWSN), Reese Olson, Tarik Skubal Jack Flaherty (@HOU) Kenta Maeda, Casey Mize
HOU @SFG (135) DET (100) Ronel Blanco, Framber Valdez Spencer Arrighetti (x2), Justin Verlander Hunter Brown
KCR NYY (65) @LAD (28) Seth Lugo (x2), Cole Ragans Brady Singer (x2), Alec Marsh Daniel Lynch IV
LAA @ARI (115) @SFG (135) Patrick Sandoval, José Soriano (@SFG) José Soriano (@ARI) Tyler Anderson Griffin Canning, José Suarez
LAD TEX (89) KCR (74) Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow Walker Buehler, Bobby Miller (?), Gavin Stone James Paxton
MIA @NYM (106) @WSN (117) Jesús Luzardo (x2), Braxton Garrett, Ryan Weathers Roddery Muñoz, Trevor Rogers
MIL TOR (65) CIN (41) Freddy Peralta Aaron Ashby (x2), Tobias Myers, Bryse Wilson, Colin Rea
MIN COL (124) OAK (128) Pablo López (x2), Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober Chris Paddack (x2), Simeon Woods Richardson
NYM MIA (154) SDP (78) Tylor Megill (vMIA), Luis Severino David Peterson, Sean Manaea, Tylor Megill (vSDP) Jose Quintana
NYY @KCR (78) @BOS (80) Nestor Cortes, Luis Gil Carlos Rodón (x2), Marcus Stroman (x2) Cody Poteet
OAK @SDP (117) @MIN (117) Joey Estes (x2), JP Sears (x2) Luis Medina, Mitch Spence Hogan Harris
PHI @BOS (80) @BAL (13) Zack Wheeler (x2), Aaron Nola Cristopher Sánchez, Ranger Suárez Taijuan Walker
PIT @STL (102) @COL (46) Paul Skenes (@STL) Mitch Keller Bailey Falter, Jared Jones, Paul Skenes (@COL) Luis L. Ortiz
SDP OAK (124) @NYM (106) Dylan Cease (x2) Michael King, Matt Waldron Randy Vásquez Adam Mazur
SEA CHW (148) TEX (111) Logan Gilbert (x2), Bryan Woo (x2), Bryce Miller, Luis Castillo, George Kirby
SFG HOU (163) LAA (167) Jordan Hicks, Logan Webb Kyle Harrison (x2) Keaton Winn (?) Spencer Howard
STL PIT (148) @CHC (100) Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn Kyle Gibson Miles Mikolas (x2) Andre Pallante
TBR CHC (130) @ATL (109) Ryan Pepiot (x2), Zach Eflin (x2), Taj Bradley, Zack Littell Aaron Civale
TEX @LAD (28) @SEA (150) Nathan Eovaldi (@SEA) Nathan Eovaldi (@LAD), Andrew Heaney, Jon Gray (?) Michael Lorenzen Dane Dunning
TOR @MIL (43) CLE (43) Yusei Kikuchi Kevin Gausman José Berríos (x2), Chris Bassitt Bowden Francis
WSN @DET (128) MIA (130) MacKenzie Gore Mitchell Parker, Jake Irvin Patrick Corbin (x2), DJ Herz

A few general schedule notes:

  • It’s pretty surprising to see the matchups against the Astros and the Braves highlighted in blue above (indicating that they’re an easier matchup). Both of these potent lineups are mired in pretty significant slumps — Atlanta has posted a .286 wOBA over the last 14 days and the Astros aren’t much better at .288 — and they both struggle to produce on the road. That means that the Giants and Orioles have a sneakily decent matchup against these two ball clubs you’d normally want to avoid.
  • Speaking of San Francisco, they’ve got a homestand next week against the aforementioned Astros and then the hapless Angels. The Diamondbacks also look like they have a pair of easier matchups lined up next week; they host the Angels and White Sox and could potentially welcome back Zac Gallen from the IL if his rehab goes quickly.
  • There are a bunch of teams with two tough matchups next week. The Royals probably have the most difficult pair of opponents in the Yankees and Dodgers and I’m fading every Kansas City pitcher, even Cole Ragans in LA. The Blue Jays, Brewers, and Reds each have hot hitting opponents on the docket too and you’d probably be better off avoiding having any pitchers from those teams in your lineups next week.

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: June 3–9

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

June 3–9
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI SFG (82) @SDP (133) Jordan Montgomery, Brandon Pfaadt Ryne Nelson (x2), Slade Cecconi (x2), Blake Walston
ATL @BOS (91) @WSN (108) Max Fried (x2), Reynaldo López, Chris Sale Charlie Morton Spencer Schwellenbach
BAL @TOR (56) @TBR (168) Grayson Rodriguez (x2), Corbin Burnes (x2), Kyle Bradish, Cole Irvin Albert Suárez 수아레즈
BOS ATL (96) @CHW (136) Kutter Crawford (x2), Tanner Houck Nick Pivetta, Cooper Criswell, Brayan Bello
CHC CHW (173) @CIN (98) Shota Imanaga (x2) Jameson Taillon, Javier Assad, Justin Steele, Ben Brown
CHW @CHC (145) BOS (33) Garrett Crochet Erick Fedde 페디 Jake Woodford (x2), Chris Flexen 플렉센, Nick Nastrini
CIN @COL (44) CHC (115) Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo Andrew Abbott (vCHC), Frankie Montas (vCHC) Andrew Abbott (@COL), Frankie Montas (@COL), Graham Ashcraft
CLE KCR (87) @MIA (150) Ben Lively 라이블리 Tanner Bibee, Triston McKenzie (@MIA) Triston McKenzie (vKCR), Logan Allen, Carlos Carrasco (?)
COL CIN (115) @STL (94) Ryan Feltner (x2), Cal Quantrill, Austin Gomber Ty Blach (x2), Dakota Hudson
DET @TEX (115) MIL (126) Tarik Skubal (x2), Jack Flaherty, Reese Olson Casey Mize Kenta Maeda
HOU STL (68) @LAA (63) Framber Valdez Justin Verlander (x2), Ronel Blanco Spencer Arrighetti, Hunter Brown
KCR @CLE (58) SEA (157) Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo (vSEA) Seth Lugo (@CLE), Brady Singer, Michael Wacha, Alec Marsh
LAA SDP (56) HOU (82) Tyler Anderson (x2), Patrick Sandoval, José Soriano, Reid Detmers Griffin Canning
LAD @PIT (147) @NYY (30) Tyler Glasnow (@PIT), Walker Buehler Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow (@NYY) James Paxton, Bobby Miller (?)
MIA TBR (180) CLE (98) Jesús Luzardo, Braxton Garrett Ryan Weathers Sixto Sánchez, Trevor Rogers
MIL @PHI (42) @DET (117) Robert Gasser, Freddy Peralta Colin Rea, Joe Ross Bryse Wilson, Tobias Myers
MIN @NYY (30) @PIT (147) Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober (@PIT) Bailey Ober (@NYY), Pablo López, Simeon Woods Richardson Chris Paddack
NYM @WSN (108) PHI (70) Christian Scott Luis Severino, Sean Manaea Jose Quintana, David Peterson
NYY MIN (98) LAD (56) Luis Gil (x2) Carlos Rodón, Marcus Semien, Nestor Cortes Cody Poteet
OAK SEA (159) TOR (108) Joey Estes (vSEA) Hogan Harris, JP Sears, Mitch Spence, Joey Estes (vTOR) Aaron Brooks 브룩스
PHI MIL (75) @NYM (112) Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola Cristopher Sánchez, Ranger Suárez Taijuan Walker
PIT LAD (82) MIN (124) Jared Jones (vMIN) Jared Jones (vLAD), Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller Bailey Falter Quinn Priester
SDP @LAA (63) ARI (129) Yu Darvish (x2), Dylan Cease, Joe Musgrove, Michael King, Matt Waldron (vARI) Matt Waldron (@LAA)
SEA @OAK (138) @KCR (65) George Kirby (x2), Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, Luis Castillo Bryce Miller
SFG @ARI (152) @TEX (115) Jordan Hicks, Logan Webb Kyle Harrison, Blake Snell Spencer Howard (x2)
STL @HOU (44) COL (136) Sonny Gray Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson (vCOL) Kyle Gibson (@HOU), Miles Mikolas Andre Pallante (x2)
TBR @MIA (150) BAL (98) Ryan Pepiot, Zack Littell Aaron Civale, Taj Bradley Tyler Alexander
TEX DET (84) SFG (54) Nathan Eovaldi (x2) Dane Dunning, Andrew Heaney, Michael Lorenzen José Ureña
TOR BAL (56) @OAK (138) Kevin Gausman (x2), Yusei Kikuchi José Berríos, Chris Bassitt
WSN NYM (65) ATL (82) MacKenzie Gore (x2) Trevor Williams (x2), Mitchell Parker, Jake Irvin Patrick Corbin
  • The Mets and Phillies head across the Atlantic next weekend for a two game series played in London Stadium. Based on the limited park factors from the previous two series played in England, I’d recommend sitting your starters for both teams. The two games should be pretty high scoring affairs.
  • It looks like the Astros have a tough couple of matchups against the Cardinals and the Angels next week. You wouldn’t think that those two teams have high octane offenses, but St. Louis has been playing extremely well recently and Angel Stadium is a particularly easy place to knock balls over the fence. Framber Valdez is probably the only pitcher in their rotation who is matchup proof.

Ottoneu Drip: Finding Under-rostered Pitchers: May 30, 2024

The search for competent pitching is never ending, especially in a year where injuries have taken their toll on so many of the top arms in the game. Here’s a handful of pitchers who are rostered in under 60% of all Ottoneu leagues who could be nice pickups if you’re looking for an option to fill in for an injured starter or looking for another bullpen piece.

Under-rostered Starting Pitchers, Last 14 Days
Player Team IP FIP K-BB% Stuff+ Pts/IP Roster%
Ryan Weathers MIA 13 2.98 22.0% 88 6.41 40.9%
Tylor Megill NYM 12 1.21 28.3% 115 7.80 40.0%
Matt Waldron SDP 17.2 1.15 29.2% 74 6.87 7.8%

Ryan Weathers earned a spot in the Marlins starting rotation with a fantastic spring training and has continued his success into the regular season. Over his last three starts, he’s allowed just two runs across 21 innings with an excellent 19:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. In fact, he hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a single start except for a six run blowup against the Nationals on April 28. His fastball velocity has come down a bit from its peak in April, but it’s still higher than it was last year. The biggest difference maker for him has been his sweeper which is now running a whiff rate over 50%, more than double what it was last year. He’s a former first round draft pick and still only 24 years old so a post-hype breakout isn’t out of the question.

It certainly seemed like Tylor Megill was headed for a big breakout in 2022 but a shoulder injury cost him most of the season. He was inconsistent at best last year, though he did make 25 starts, second most on the Mets. In his final start of the season, he broke out a new splitter — he calls it a spork — and held the Phillies to just a single run in 7.1 innings while striking out seven. He honed that new pitch over the offseason and it’s now a major part of his pitch mix, running a whiff rate over 60%. He’s already been sidelined with a minor shoulder injury this year, but he’s been solid in his three starts, including holding the Dodgers scoreless over seven innings in his last outing.

Matt Waldron isn’t just throwing a knuckleball as a gimmick. He has a full five-pitch arsenal and uses the knuckler as a fully fledged secondary weapon to earn swings and misses. The rest of his pitches don’t really stand out all that much, but when a batter knows he’s going to see at least one or two knuckleballs in an at-bat, that uncertainty keeps them off balance just enough. Over his last three outings, he’s really had his floater working for him; he’s allowed just three runs across 17.2 innings while striking out 25. Because he relies so heavily on his knuckleball, and considering the fickle nature of the pitch, he’s bound to have hot and cold streaks based on how that pitch is performing.

Under-rostered Relief Pitchers, Last 14 Days
Player Team IP FIP K-BB% gmLI Stuff+ Pts/IP Roster%
Bryan Hudson MIL 6 1.46 29.2% 1.95 81 8.67 56.9%
Randy Rodríguez SFG 7.2 1.83 23.1% 1.01 119 8.98 7.5%
Porter Hodge CHC 2.1 -2.01 75.0% 0.15 102 11.88 4.7%
Tyson Miller CHC 4 1.38 31.3% 0.89 115 8.20 0.6%

With Devin Williams still sidelined, the Brewers have had some trouble finding reliable high-leverage options for their bullpen. Trevor Megill has settled in as their closer, but they’ve churned through a number of setup men, trying to find someone who can cover the seventh and eighth innings. Enter Bryan Hudson. He’s a lefty with a low-slot release point that gives batters fits. That’s how his fastball plays up despite pedestrian velocity and it gives his sweeper a ton of horizontal break — 17% more than the average for that pitch type. He’s struck out nearly a third of the batters he’s faced this year and is finally seeing regular high-leverage work.

Randy Rodríguez has the profile and pure stuff of a high-leverage reliever, but his lack of command has held him back from truly breaking out. His fastball grades out well thanks to above average velocity and plenty of carry at the top of the zone. He also has a two-plane slider that should be a good weapon for him if he can find a little more consistency with it. He made his major league debut early this month and had a stretch of five scoreless outings snapped yesterday when he allowed three runs to score in an inning of work. He’s more of a speculative add right now since he isn’t seeing much high-leverage work yet, but if he can harness his stuff, he’ll climb the bullpen ladder sooner or later.

The Cubs bullpen has had all sorts of trouble this year. Héctor Neris has seemingly locked down the ninth inning role but Chicago is still looking for high-leverage setup men. That’s how Tyson Miller earned a hold a few days ago a few weeks after being acquired from the Mariners. Miller has the flat fastball thrown from a low release point Seattle seems to love and a horizontal sweeper to go with it. He’s currently listed as the second setup man in the Cubs bullpen behind Neris and Mark Leiter Jr. Porter Hodge is another speculative add if Miller isn’t interesting enough for you. He’s only made three appearances in the majors so far, but he’s struck out 75% of the batters he’s faced. His fastball has good velocity and elite release extension helps it play up even more. He’s also added a splitter to his pitch mix this year and could quickly find himself pitching in high-leverage opportunities.


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: May 27–June 2

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

May 27–June 2
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI @TEX (113) @NYM (146) Zac Gallen, Jordan Montgomery, Brandon Pfaadt Ryne Nelson (x2), Tommy Henry
ATL WSN (155) OAK (157) Charlie Morton (x2), Max Fried (x2), Reynaldo López, Chris Sale Darius Vines
BAL BOS (86) TBR (142) Grayson Rodriguez, Corbin Burnes, Kyle Bradish Dean Kremer, Cole Irvin (vTBR) Cole Irvin (vBOS)
BOS @BAL (108) DET (102) Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck Nick Pivetta, Cooper Criswell (vDET), Brayan Bello (vDET) Cooper Criswell (@BAL), Brayan Bello (@BAL)
CHC @MIN (144) CIN (137) Shota Imanaga, Javier Assad Justin Steele (x2), Ben Brown (x2), Jameson Taillon
CHW TOR (95) @MIL (31) Garrett Crochet Erick Fedde 페디 Nick Nastrini (x2), Mike Clevinger, Chris Flexen 플렉센
CIN STL (51) @CHC (124) Hunter Greene Andrew Abbott Frankie Montas, Graham Ashcraft
CLE @COL (24) WSN (144) Tanner Bibee Ben Lively 라이블리 Xzavion Curry (vWSN) Xzavion Curry (@COL), Triston McKenzie, Logan Allen
COL CLE (69) @LAD (75) Ryan Feltner Austin Gomber (x2), Ty Blach, Dakota Hudson, Cal Quantrill
DET PIT (126) @BOS (97) Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty, Reese Olson Casey Mize (x2) Kenta Maeda
HOU @SEA (106) MIN (93) Framber Valdez (x2) Cristian Javier (x2), Justin Verlander, Ronel Blanco Hunter Brown José Urquidy (?)
KCR @MIN (144) SDP (102) Alec Marsh (@MIN), Cole Ragans (x2), Seth Lugo, Brady Singer Michael Wacha, Alec Marsh (vSDP)
LAA NYY (11) @SEA (106) Patrick Sandoval, José Soriano, Reid Detmers Tyler Anderson Griffin Canning (x2)
LAD @NYM (146) COL (62) Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto Gavin Stone (x2), Walker Buehler James Paxton
MIA @SDP (113) TEX (148) Jesús Luzardo Braxton Garrett Trevor Rogers (x2), Sixto Sánchez, Ryan Weathers
MIL CHC (111) CHW (133) Freddy Peralta (x2), Robert Gasser Bryse Wilson, Colin Rea Tobias Myers (x2)
MIN KCR (115) @HOU (22) Joe Ryan (vKCR), Bailey Ober Simeon Woods Richardson (vKCR), Chris Paddack, Pablo López, Joe Ryan (@HOU) Simeon Woods Richardson (@HOU)
NYM LAD (102) ARI (86) Luis Severino, Sean Manaea Tylor Megill (x2), Christian Scott Jose Quintana (x2)
NYY @LAA (46) @SFG (108) Clarke Schmidt, Nestor Cortes (@SFG) Nestor Cortes (@LAA), Luis Gil, Carlos Rodón, Marcus Stroman
OAK @TBR (137) @ATL (75) Mitch Spence (@TBR), Joey Estes, Ross Stripling, JP Sears Aaron Brooks 브룩스
PHI @SFG (108) STL (62) Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez Cristopher Sánchez Taijuan Walker (x2)
PIT @DET (148) @TOR (84) Jared Jones, Paul Skenes Mitch Keller Bailey Falter, Martín Pérez
SDP MIA (137) @KCR (77) Yu Darvish, Dylan Cease Michael King (x2), Matt Waldron, Joe Musgrove
SEA HOU (62) LAA (82) Luis Castillo (x2), George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo Bryce Miller (x2)
SFG PHI (82) NYY (66) Blake Snell (x2), Jordan Hicks, Logan Webb Kyle Harrison Mason Black
STL @CIN (102) @PHI (40) Lance Lynn (x2), Kyle Gibson, Sonny Gray Miles Mikolas
TBR OAK (173) @BAL (108) Zack Littell (x2), Ryan Pepiot Taj Bradley Aaron Civale Tyler Alexander
TEX ARI (73) @MIA (148) Nathan Eovaldi (?) Dane Dunning, Andrew Heaney, José Ureña, Michael Lorenzen
TOR @CHW (117) PIT (80) Kevin Gausman, Yusei Kikuchi Chris Bassitt (x2), Alek Manoah, José Berríos
WSN @ATL (75) @CLE (80) MacKenzie Gore Jake Irvin (x2), Trevor Williams, Mitchell Parker Patrick Corbin (x2)

A few general schedule notes:

  • The Braves have a nice pair of home matchups against the Nationals and A’s next week. They’re in the midst of a long stretch of games without an off day which means they might turn to a sixth starter next week to keep the workload off their starters, so make sure you’re checking the announced starters for their games.
  • The Cubs also have a couple of easier matchups against the Twins and Reds. I can’t unreservedly recommend starting every pitcher in their rotation, but even guys like Jameson Taillon or Ben Brown are good bets to turn in decent starts next week.
  • The rest of the schedule is pretty mixed and there isn’t really a team who is facing a particularly tough week. The Rockies probably come the closest as they have a series at home against the Guardians and then head to Los Angeles to face the Dodgers. You’re probably not rostering any Colorado starters anyway though.