What a great trade (and fight) last night. This trade has so many moving parts that I’m going to focus on those players seeing their in-season fantasy value changing enough for owners to act. I’m not going to touch keeper/dynasty values as league rules will determine much of the player’s valuation. I’ll try to get past the main characters and find those players who need to be picked up or dropped.

While I’m supposed to provide instant analysis on this blockbuster trade, the true fantasy value gainers and decliners aren’t going to be 100% known for a few days. Owners will keep sticking Trevor Bauer and Yasiel Puig in their lineup. While the park factors and league context will change their value a bit, it’s non-actionable. They aren’t going to be dropped or added so the trade doesn’t affect their value.

The exact gain rankings aren’t known yet as who replaces Puig and who Bauer pushes out of the Reds rotation. Owners in weekly FAAB leagues will have time to make a decision and see who the MLB teams use for replacements. In the wild, wild west of quick-click leagues, hopefully, I can provide the correct replacements, but I’m guessing what the Reds and Padres will do which isn’t the easiest. With the disclaimers out of the way, it’s time to get to the winner and losers.

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Yesterday saw some fantasy applicable free agent signing occur which deserve a discussion.

A.J. Pollock signs with the Dodgers

I can’t quit Pollock, almost to a fault. I keep latching onto his 2015 season even though he hasn’t played over 113 games since then because of injuries. Now, he is going to a team notorious for limiting playing time thereby making his value is tough to unwrap.

He was productive during his stretch of limited playing time. Prorating his three-year stats down to 600 PA, he would have 88 Runs, 23 HR, 73 RBI, 23 SB and a .261 average. It’s tough to find a player with similar 2019 projection but here are a few. Ronald Acuna is at 28 HR, 24 SB, and .276 AVG. Braun at 25 HR, 13 SB, .265 AVG. Tim Anderson with 17 HR, 21 SB, .252 AVG. If playing a full season, he’s a top-50 hitter.

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With steals becoming more scarce, owners were forced to reach for the few stolen base sources which could carry a team. In 2018, Dee Gordon and Billy Hamilton were supposed to be two such sources. Both disappointed their owners but the risk of a decline was evident even though their owners, which includes the author, ignored them. The owners were hoping for a stolen base panacea but ended up with burnt pancakes.

Going into the season, our Depth Charts projected Hamilton to have the most stolen bases at 52 and Gordon was third at 46. Both missed badly with Hamilton stealing 34 and Gordon with 30. In my Tout Wars league, 16 steals were the difference between 7th and 2nd in the category.

The reason for their decline didn’t involve their ability to steal a base. Both couldn’t hit enough to get on base and continue leading off. Both had on-base rates under .300 and OPS’s in the low .600’s. By the season’s end, both were deservingly hitting at the bottom of the lineup (Hamilton 106 times, Gordon 34 times). In all fairness, their projected OPS values (.674 and .648) were below the average catcher (.676).

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With the non-waiver trade deadline over, it’s time to focus on mixed-league actionable moves. With most of the trades, a player’s value didn’t change enough to make a roster transaction. For example, Chris Archer was owned in all leagues before the trade from the Rays to Pirates and will be owned in all leagues after the trade. Many of the biggest trades are just mixed-league irrelevant. I ranked the players who should be moving on and off rosters in the next few days as the dust settles.

Note: I’m 100% sure I missed something obvious. There was just a ton of moves. I will update this article as I find more players or my obvious errors are pointed out.

Top Gainers (Waiver Wire Targets)

• Jose Leclerc (Rangers): After the trade of Keone Kela to the Pirates and Jake Diekman to the Diamondbacks, the Rangers have a new closer. The 24-year-old righty has been a dominant setup man this year with a 12.7 K/9 and 2.27 ERA and should be a fine closer. There is a chance Alex Claudio gets this role.

• Kirby Yates (Padres): If owners were reluctant to roster own him with the chance he’d also get traded, they can pick him up now.

• Mychal Givens (Orioles): With Brad Brach, Darren O’Day, and Zach Britton traded away, Givens is in line for a handful of Saves.

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With many hittes returning from the DL after the All-Star break, I decided to examine American League lineups today and the National League ones tomorrow.

Angels

• With Albert Pujols coming back from the DL, there are four players, Shohei Ohtani, Luis Valbuena, Jefry Marte, and Pujols fighting over the first base and designated hitter spots. I expect Pujols and Ohtani, when healthy, to get the most at-bats. It’s a situation to monitor for a few days to see how the Angels will handle the situation.

Astros

• The lineup set at the top but the team has been cycling some players around to find a serviceable shortstop with Carlos Correa out and little production from left field (.243/.319/.386). Kyle Tucker was supposed to be the answer but he’s hit only .139/.205/.167 in 39 PA so far. It’s a small sample but the Astros are trying to repeat as World Series champs so don’t be surprised if they add an outfielder as insurance.

Athletics

• While the batting order has been mixed up since the All-Star game, generally the same players are being used. The only exception is that Chad Pinder (vs LHP) and Dustin Fowler (vs RHP) are in a platoon.

Blue Jays

• Randal Grichuk is playing center field everyday with Kevin Pillar on the DL.
• For owners in deeper leagues, keep an eye on Dwight Smith Jr. who has started in right field the last two games. While the 25-year-old has a little bit of speed and power, his true talent is getting on base (.373 OBP with 12% BB%). His 15% HR/FB rate looks decent but he mainly puts the ball on the ground (50% GB%).
• Lourdes Gurriel is back from the DL and playing with Devon Travis and Aledmys Diaz moving to part-time roles.

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The All-Star game has come and gone, but the festivities are ongoing here at RotoGraphs. It’s time to rank the first half’s “All-Sell-High Team.” These are players who had big first halves, but who aren’t necessarily the best bets to repeat that performance in the second half. Without further ado, let’s get right to the list: Read the rest of this entry »

Teams are beginning to make the hard call if they are going to buyers or sellers at the trade deadline. I’ll start investigating the players most likely to be traded, how their value will change, and their possible replacements. I’m not going to make the call on who is or isn’t going to be moved. I’m going to rely on the great writers at MLBTradeRumors.com and use their top-50 trade candidate list. I’ll start with the top five players.

1. Manny Machado

Machado is nearly a perfect trade chip. A complete hitter who can play either shortstop or third base. I can’t envision a single scenario where his value takes a hit. He may end up in a pitcher-friendly park but he’ll be hitting in the middle of a better lineup. It can’t be worse than Baltimore’s lineup.

Every single contending team could use Machado as an upgrade while some teams need him worse. Trying to pick a destination right now is about impossible. I’m a little worried he’s more likely headed to the National League for those owners with him in AL-only leagues. I don’t see Baltimore trading him to the Yankees or Red Sox to help them win a World Series.

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Turn out for the Invitational has been below my expectations. If you previously participated in Invitationals and have opted not to transition with us to FantasyDraft, could you leave me some feedback? Comments, email, Twitter DM – whatever works for you. I’m trying to understand how to make this better for everyone.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. No No No

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I look at each lineup to find any recent changes. Big thanks to Baseball-reference.com for tracking the lineups.

Angels

• Since Ian Kinsler has returned, he’s led off three of the four games with Cozart moving down to the 5th/6th spot.

Astros

• Since returning, Yulieski Gurriel has batted in the 4th and 5th spots.
• Last night, Alex Bregman dropped from the 2nd spot to the 5th spot with the normal players in the lineup. The likely reason is Bregman’s struggles (.214/.321/.300).

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With the season underway, owners need to start adjusting some player’s fantasy value. Some of the tweaks can be from talent changes (e.g. increase in talent) or role (e.g. moving for a long reliever to starter). Three players, Kenley Jansen, Trea Turner, and Luke Weaver, are three such players on the move.

Kenley Jansen

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