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In these weekly posts over the past couple months, I’ve talked a lot about moving beyond projections when building DFS lineups for large field tournaments, utilizing other strategies to increase upside and the chances of a big win. This idea was hard for me to accept for at first, and may be for some of you as well, but the more I’ve looked into daily fantasy and played it myself, the more I believe that it’s essential to utilize game theory in DFS, and move past using only mean projections in building lineups.
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Traditionally, daily fantasy sports projections use average projected points as the primary method of evaluating players. While one can get a sense of a player’s consistency and upside based on their batting profile and game log, it is difficult to accurately and precisely project players’ upside in terms of DFS points and performance relative to each other.
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