- The Trades I Didn’t Make
- The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
- Daily DFS
- SaberSim Observations
- Tomorrow’s Targets
- Factor Grid
1. The Trades I Didn’t Make
The other day, I was talking with Chad Young about the ottoneu league FanGraphs Staff Two. It’s a league he usually dominates, but his roster has fallen flat this year. Meanwhile, I’ve raced out to a comfortable 1,000 point lead. For context, 1,150 points separate second from 11th place (the last place team is tanking).
Background/humble brag complete. Now let’s turn to today’s topic. I experienced incredible fortune with my roster construction. After using key keeper resources to secure the victory last season, I had a bloated roster with a few expensive stars and a whole bunch of gaps. We have a $400 max budget for 40 players. We can trade for extra cash during the season, but we have to pare back down to $400 during the winter. Your players also get more expensive every year.
Over the offseason, I tried to trade $64 Clayton Kershaw, $62 Mike Trout, or $48 Paul Goldschmidt plus $16 Jonathan Lucroy for $12 Kyle Schwarber and a second piece (usually $2 Alex Bregman, who looks much more valuable now than then).
I initiated these talks. There were days when I was ready to say yes. There were days when the other owner was ready to pull the trigger. At no point did they overlap. Praise the gods.
At another point, I had the opportunity to add a keepable $32 Jake Arrieta with $5 Andrew Miller, which I executed. I didn’t have budget for the guys I already had, let alone Arrieta. Faced with a need to dump at least one of Kershaw, Arrieta, Zack Greinke, or Corey Kluber at a discount, I sent Greinke packing. Thankfully it wasn’t one of the first two.
Prior to the season but after the draft, I tried to trade $24 Matt Carpenter, $5 Miller, $7 Lance McCullers, and $5 Luis Severino for $17 Chris Archer, $8 Maikel Franco, and $1 Jason Hammel. This was right after McCullers hit the disabled list and I wanted another ace. I thought I was smart adding the Carpenter-Franco dimension. I perceived it as a small downgrade in points in exchange for a better keeper. Luckily, Schwarber’s owner swooped in and snatched Archer out from under me. Missing on Schwarber is the gift that keeps on giving.
Had I executed any or all of these deals, my roster would not be where it is now. And I very much was ready to take the dive on all these swaps. I can’t say I intentionally did anything right.
2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
3. Daily DFS
Late: You may consider one of these aces three – Johnny Cueto, Noah Syndergaard, or David Price. Thor has the best matchup, the best stuff, and the highest ceiling. This is his first start against the Marlins since a seven inning, 12 strikeout game on April 12. He’s opposed by Tom Koehler.
Just outside the ace categorization is volatile stud Danny Salazar. I like him as a high variance GPP pick since he’s capable of keeping pace with any pitcher. He does tend to have short outings which is why he’s so risky. He won’t have a gimme win opposite Edinson Volquez.
The price is right for Yu Darvish, but the 80 to 90 pitch count is wrong. He’s capped at around 45 FanDuel points since he’s unlikely to pitch beyond the sixth inning. I also tend to avoid using pitchers versus the Mariners. Funny that.
Speaking of pitchers who don’t pitch deep into the game, Kenta Maeda has the dream Braves matchup. It’s too bad he rarely tosses more than six innings. Jake Odorizzi is in a similar pickle opposite the Twins. The matchup is good, but he only occasionally lasts seven frames – almost never more than seven.
4. SaberSim Observations
SaberSim has Salazar narrowly edging Syndergaard for the top spot tonight. Drew Pomeranz, Vincent Velasquez, and Gio Gonzalez round out the top five. I ain’t going near Gio at GABP. The Reds offense isn’t that bad. Maeda was next in line.
With no Coors game, the top stacks are Red Sox, Astros, Blue Jays, Nationals, and Orioles.
5. Tomorrow’s Targets
Pitchers to Start: It’s a fantastic day for loading up on pitchers. I grabbed a share of Hellickson and Kennedy. I’m intrigued by Matt Andriese versus the Twins. I’ve watched a few Andriese starts. They have a general theme – he gets ahead in the count then doesn’t have anything to finish the at bat. The Twins are the perfect matchup for him since they tend to swing through hittable pitches. Still, there’s plenty of risk involved too.
Pitchers to Exploit: The Mariners have a cohort of lefty mashers to deploy against Martin Perez. The southpaw has a 3.12 ERA on the season, but 5.43 K/9, 4.21 BB/9, and a 4.60 xFIP speak of dark days ahead. At least he’s a ground ball pitcher.
Hitters (power): Injuries have opened the door wide open for Max Kepler. Or Oswaldo Arcia. We know Arcia by now – he’s a low OBP, modest power bat. Kepler may offer higher contact rates with even more modest power. He has some speed, but he’s not a big threat to run. It’s possible he’s passive at the plate. I’ve seen very little of him and there isn’t much data.
Hitters (speed): It’s not there’s anything special about Trea Turner’s matchup against Dan Straily. He’s not a power hitter so getting Great American Ballpark doesn’t do much to his projection. This is mostly just a reminder that he’s still freely available in 62 percent of Yahoo leagues. He was drafted in all of mine…
6. The Factor Grid
The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.
No weather factors today.
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