- Tuesday Chat
- The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
- Daily DFS
- SaberSim Observations
- Tomorrow’s Targets
- Factor Grid
At 1:45pm ET, I’ll be hosting a one hour RotoGraphs live chat. I’m told my colleague Paul really drags out his chats. I have six activities to complete by 4:00pm on Tuesdays so I don’t have that luxury.
I like to think I do a good job of rapid fire answering, but I still only get to maybe a quarter of the questions submitted. Here are a few helpful hints for getting your question picked.
- I hate “rank these” questions: They’re invariably three or four of the same asset class. Often, they’re four very good players. I always skip these.
- Actually require my expertise: For example, last week I traded Aroldis Chapman, Yasiel Puig, and Devon Travis for Mookie Betts. I done good. I don’t need to ask Sporer to congratulate me.
- Engage my whimsy: The Man tries to break us all, even fantasy baseball writers. In this way, we are all the same. Whimsy is poison to The Man. Let’s jibberjabber.
2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
We’ll play on DraftKings today with our usual $2 and 30 users. If you’d like to be included in the DK emails, please let me know.
Important: the contest creation options were bugged today. The only full slate option includes the 4:05pm Pirates game. I don’t know why they’re not using the second game of the doubleheader. Make sure you have your entries in by then. Any Pirates or Mets in a dummy lineup will lock at that time.
3. Daily DFS
Early: Due to yesterday’s postponement, the Pirates and Mets are doing their best approximation of cheese. We still get to use Steven Matz, Jon Niese, or stacks for the TDG Invite, but most DFS participants will be without this game. I’m also not 100 percent positive they’re listing the right pitchers. Or that they won’t correct the error and switch to the 7:35pm start time.
Late: The remaining 14 games are late. At the top of the puddle, Zack Greinke and Kyle Hendricks have good matchups. Greinke has pitched very well in three of his last four outings, and he’s opposed by a mild-mannered Rays lineup. Hendricks has less talent, but he draws the easy-mode Phillies lineup.
I still don’t buy Joe Ross as a reliable starter in his present form. He’s basically a slider-only pitcher. The White Sox have the fourth worst offense versus right-handed pitching. Most of their good performance came weeks ago.
If you’re a fan of GPP volatility, Adam Conley has plenty of upside opposite the Twins. He could eclipse 10 strikeouts, and he should receive run support opposite Pat Dean. On his best days, Conley is effectively wild. On his worst, he’s just plain ol’ wild.
Rick Porcello has a decent shot at a victory against Albert Suarez and the Giants. Porcello has pitched poorly in recent weeks. He’s faced a few difficult offenses over that period. With the game at pitcher friendly AT&T Park, I anticipate a high floor.
If you’re looking for a bargain, I’m a fan of Zach Davies’ matchup with the Athletics. They’re banged up. Davies is coming off a 63 point performance on FanDuel yet he only costs $6,500 to roster. The A’s are turning to scuffling rookie Sean Manaea. If Davies has a good day, he’ll also earn the win.
4. SaberSim Observations
Julio Urias is the top rated pitcher today. I don’t know. I like Urias tonight, but we know he’s hamstrung on pitch count. He also gets a little too wild within the strike zone. Greinke, Michael Pineda, Porcello, and Matz round out the top five. Conspicuously absent are the pitchers I liked most – namely Hendricks, Ross, and Conley.
It’s perhaps worth noting that price depressed Giancarlo Stanton is the top rated hitter tonight. Marlins, Twins, Blue Jays, Cubs, Cardinals, Rangers, and Orioles appear to be good stacks.
5. Tomorrow’s Targets
Pitchers to Start: Admittedly, I’ve yet to watch a single Archie Bradley pitch this season. I typically like to watch at least a few innings before recommending a guy. Bradley has 19 strikeouts over his last 13.1 innings including 10 against the Cubs (the other nine were the lowly Padres). As I already noted, the Rays aren’t exactly scary against right-handed pitching. Still, Bradley is a high volatility pick.
Also consider: Nate Eovaldi
Pitchers to Exploit: The Reds have pitching prospects. I can only assume they’re waiting for the Super Two cut off to be past before they begin to use them in place of Alfredo Simon. There’s simply to reason to use him for the Reds. It’s the Angels turn to give him a job. Bad command, a .356 BABIP, and a high home run rate have led to this 8.94 ERA disaster. his 5.42 xFIP is still terrible.
Hitters (power): It’s time to roster Trayce Thompson full time. He regularly bats third or fifth in the Dodgers lineup. While power regression is a near certainty, the rest of his profile reads as sustainable. Granted, sometimes the scouting report catches up to players like Thompson, but I’m buying him as a solid core performer.
Hitters (speed): I keep forgetting to add Whit Merrifield to this section. He’s ousted Omar Infantecide as the every day second baseman. Ned Yost is using him as the second hitter although his profile fits better at the bottom of the lineup. He’s currently hitting .328/.348/.438 with a .420 BABIP. His minor league BABIPs were generally around .300. He stole 16 bases in 163 plate appearances at Triple-A. He has enough speed to post a surprise five steal week.
6. The Factor Grid
The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.
This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.
You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam