Archive for Closers

The A.L. Closer Report: 6/3

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Mo was two-for-two in save chances this past week, slamming the door on Cleveland on May 29th and June 1st. Rivera’s K/BB ratio sits at an absurd 26/1, and he’s climbing up the WPA leader board (15th at the moment, despite an inflated .313 BABIP and 27.8 HR/FB rate).

Joakim Soria, Royals

The Mexicutioner returns, and not a moment too soon for Kansas City fans, whose faces turned royal blue while watching Juan Cruz back himself into a corner on a nightly basis. Soria’s shoulder bears close monitoring, but he returns to a line that includes a 2.24 FIP and 10 K’s in 8.2 innings.

Joe Nathan, Twins

Nathan was a busy man this week, logging three saves against three different opponents (Boston, Tampa Bay and Cleveland). He struck out 4 batters in 3.1 frames, and he hasn’t surrendered a run since May 15th ( a stretch of six innings). His K/BB ratio is back up to a sterling 4.40, and he’s tossing a first pitch strike 66.3% of the time (57.9% MLB average).

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Uncharacteristically wild to begin the year, Papelbon allayed some panic-stricken Sox faithful with 4 K’s and no free passes in 2 innings this past week. If Papelbon can hit his spots more consistently, his career-low 46.1 opponent Swing% will increase.

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Jenks picked up two saves against the scuffling Royals on May 30th and 31st. He’s throwing his fastball nearly 2 MPH faster than last season (95.3 MPH, compared to 93.8 in ’08), but with less effectiveness (-0.66 runs per 100 pitches; +1.55 in 2008). Conversely, his slider (+3.59 per 100 pitches) and curveball (+4.19) are giving batters fits.

Frank Francisco, Rangers

Francisco collected a save on May 29th, before suffering his first loss of the season on the 31st while finally giving up a run. Frank’s scoreless appearances streak reached 17 before the A’s got to him, and his K/BB ratio sits at 19/5 for the year. His mid-80’s splitter has been a devastating pitch, with a run value of +4.67 per 100 pitches for the season.

Kerry Wood, Indians

Wood picked up a W against the Rays on May 28th and a save versus the Yankees on the 31st. Woody was wild early on, but he has issued only 1 walk in his last 4 innings. That’s not some world-beating stretch, but it certainly bests his 5-walk, two inning streak from May 17th to the 20th. Wood’s WPA sits at -0.33 for the season.

In Control

Scott Downs, Blue Jays

Downs blew a save versus the O’s on May 27th, but he recovered to notch two against Boston on the 29th and 30th. He’s done an excellent job in getting batters to chase his stuff off the plate, with a 33.3 Outside-Swing% (24.5% MLB average). That helps explain how Downs has a microscopic walk rate (0.78 BB/9) despite locating just 45.1% of his pitches within the strike zone (49% MLB average).

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Watch out for: Ryan Perry, Joel Zumaya

Rodney hasn’t allowed a run to cross home plate on his watch since May 10th, a streak of 9 innings in which he has racked up 4 saves while issuing just two walks. Unable to hit the broad side of a barn in 2008 (6.69 BB/9), Rodney has issued 2.57 BB/9 in ’09 while generating groundballs at a 54.2% clip. His fastball, long thrown with plus velocity but little effectiveness (-0.45 runs per 100 pitches during his career), has been worth +2.09 runs per 100 tosses this season. His nasty changeup/splitter checks in at +2.89 per 100 pitches to boot.

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes was generally effective during the month of May (converting 8 saves), but he ended on a sour note with a 3-run, 3-hit blown save against Seattle on the 30th. He’s whiffing 9.16 hitters per nine with 2.89 BB/9, but a .373 BABIP has put a damper on Fuentes’ numbers. There are some concerning signs, though: his 80.7% contact rate is over 5 percent higher than any other season we have dating back to 2002, and his sweeping curveball has been lacking. The pitch was worth +6.27 runs per 100 pitches in 2007, -1.79 in 2008 and -2.70 this season.

George Sherrill, Orioles

Streaking Sherrill: Baltimore’s stopper is sad to see the calendar flip to June, as he went on a May tear. The 32 year-old southpaw allowed just a single run in 11 frames, and he’s currently on an 11-inning scoreless streak with a perfect frame against the Mariners on June 1st. Typically wild (career 4.43 BB/9, 5.57 BB/9 in 2008), Sherrill has given up 2.91 walks per nine innings in 2009.

Watch Your Back

Andrew Bailey/Brad Ziegler, Athletics

Ziegler (3.25 FIP, 66.2 GB%) hasn’t been bad, but Bailey has been a revelation out of the ‘pen for the A’s in 2009. Armed with low-90’s heat, a high-80’s cutter that saws off bats and a mid-70’s curve, Bailey has punched out 38 hitters in 32.1 innings. Batters have made contact with just 66.2% of his pitches, which ranks 5th among relievers. It’s not entirely clear who will get the 9th inning call on any given night, but owners have to be rooting for Bailey, given his strikeout potential.

David Aardsma (Brandon Morrow is in time out for the moment)

The law of averages caught up with Aardsma on May 31st, as he was rocked for 3 runs in 0.2 innings against the Angels, dishing out four walks in the process. His ERA (2.13) might look impressive, but Aardsma is walking a disturbing 6.39 batters per nine innings. It’s near impossible to remain effective while putting one’s self in jams so frequently. So far, a .236 BABIP and the highest strand rate of his career (85.4%) have allowed for the Houdini act, but Aardsma could be in for a rough go of it in the months to come.

Morrow, meanwhile, isn’t exactly buttressing his case to get the closer’s role back. He made just one appearance this week, coughing up 3 hits, 2 runs and a walk to the A’s on May 30th. Morrow’s K/BB ratio sits at an ugly 18/14 in 15.1 IP.

Jason Isringhausen/Dan Wheeler/J.P. Howell(?)/Lance Cormier/Joe Nelson, Rays

It’s tough to get a read on Tampa’s situation. Howell (2.30 FIP) has certainly been the best of the bunch, but Rays manager Joe Maddon would likely rather keep the former starter available for multi-inning appearances. Izzy is having an awkward introduction in Tampa, with 5 walks in 5.2 innings. Cormier has a 2.19 ERA, but that figure is at least somewhat the product of a .243 BABIP and a very low homer rate. Your guess is as good as mine here.


Future Closer: Daniel Schlereth

Perhaps lost in the hoopla of recent, more highly-anticipated, promotions such as Matt Wieters and David Price, the Arizona Diamondbacks organization called up one of the key players in its future.

Reliever Daniel Schlereth was promoted from double-A on May 29. The hard-throwing left-hander was the club’s first round draft pick (26th overall) out of the University of Arizona in the 2008 MLB amateur draft. It took the 23-year-old hurler just 25 minor league games to prove his MLB-readiness in the Diamondbacks’ eyes. During that span, he posted a 1.45 ERA and rates of 5.5 BB/9 and 11.9 K/9. Obviously, the walk rate is a concern at this point, especially with it sitting at 6.2 BB/9 in 2009 at double-A.

There are definitely some other key statistics with Schlereth’s 2009 minor league performance to date, including the nine hits allowed in 19 innings (4.3 H/9). He’s tough to hit when he gets the ball over the plate. As well, his fastball sits in the low 90s (He’s averaging 93 mph in his two MLB games) and it can touch the mid-to-upper 90s. His curveball is also very good and he’s quite confident in it, as witnessed by his willingness to throw it 43% of the time in his brief MLB career (two appearances, and innings).

In those two big league innings, Schlereth has yet to allow a run and he’s walked one while also striking out a batter. Of the outs made in play, four have come via the groundball and just one was in the air. In his pro career, Schlereth has a 55.4% groundball rate. His line-drive rate is even better at just 9.2% (His BABIP-allowed is .254).

The southpaw reliever is not going to inherit the Diamondbacks’ closer role right away, but he is definitely the odds-on-favorite to claim the job in the not-too-distant future. Current closer Chad Qualls is just 30 years old, but he’ll be a free agent after the 2010 season and the Arizona organization is one of the more cost-conscious clubs around. Qualls is also just 27-for-49 in career save opportunities, so he is not amongst the elite closers in the game (although he is 12-for-14 this season).

Schlereth is a player that deserves to be monitored over the next year or two as he should eventually begin to earn save opportunities. If Arizona wanted to be proactive, the club could start mixing in the save opportunities now, with the season already looking bleak in terms of playoff opportunities. Schlereth and Qualls could make a nice lefty-righty closer combo, with lefties hitting .325 off the latter in 2009.


The A.L. Closer Report: 5/27

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Rivera gave up a run versus the Orioles on the 20th, but he turned in two pristine innings on the 21st (a save op versus the O’s) and the 24th against the Phillies as his counterpart (Lidge) was busy spontaneously combusting. Mo has 24 K’s and just a single walk on his ledger in 19.2 innings. A wacky HR/FB rate (31.3%) has put a damper on his numbers (relatively speaking), but he’s as nasty as ever.

Joe Nathan, Twins

Nathan has recovered nicely from a 3-run debacle against the Yankees on the 15th, with 2.2 scoreless innings in three appearances (1 save chance). His FIP sits at 3.45 for the season, with an uncharacteristic -0.01 WPA.

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Jenks converted a save against those pesky Pirates on the 22nd, but he served up a tater to Jack Wilson on the 24th while blowing a save opportunity. His WPA comes in at 0.10 for the season, with a 4.79 FIP.

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Is it time to be at least mildly concerned about Boston’s relief ace? He has given up 4 runs in his last two innings, with 11 walks in 21 innings overall. Papelbon’s fastball hasn’t been quite as effective this year: according to the new linear weights section on his player page, Papelbon’s cheddar has been worth +0.66 runs per 100 pitches in 2009, compared to +2.21 in 2008 and +3.29 in 2007.

Frank Francisco, Rangers

He’s back: Francisco came off the DL this week and didn’t skip a beat, tossing two scoreless innings and tallying one save. That’s 16.2 clean innings, for those of you keeping score at home. Sure, he has yet to give up a homer and his BABIP is .225, but Francisco also has a 4.0 K/BB ratio.

Kerry Wood, Indians

Wood racked up two saves in 3 appearances this week, though the first save chance was turbulent (3 walks against the Royals on the 20th). With a .358 BABIP and 2.25 HR/9, Wood hasn’t had many bounces go his way. Still, he’ll need to hit his spots with more regularity (5.63 BB/9), lest he set a bad example for the rest of Cleveland’s savage bullpen.

In Control

Scott Downs, Blue Jays

Downs tossed just one inning this week (3 hits, 2 R against the O’s on the 26th), as the Jays suddenly dive back toward earth, poised to roost in their customary fourth-place spot. With B. J. Ryan still failing to crack 89-90 MPH on the radar gun, Downs’ ninth-inning gig looks safe. With a 23/2 K/BB, the low-profile lefty has earned his keep.

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes racked up back-to-back saves against the Mariners and Dodgers on the 21st and 22nd, then served up a run against LA on the 24th in a non-save situation. His 4.32 ERA looks sort of inflated, but a 3.10 FIP suggests that Fuentes should enjoy better days from here on out.

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Watch out for: Ryan Perry, Joel Zumaya

After converting save chances on the 20th and 21st against Texas, Rodney has lounged without around without getting into a ballgame. Normally a high-octane hurler lacking fine touch, Rodney is both punching out fewer hitters (6.5 K/9) and surrendering fewer free passes (2.5 BB/9). The net effect, should it stick, is positive: Rodney’s 3.27 FIP is the lowest of his career. Some of that is due to a 0.5 HR/9 mark, but he’s also generating grounders (51 GB%) at his highest rate since 2006.

Juan Cruz, Royals(Joakim Soria on the DL with shoulder soreness)

Cruz finally fell off the tight rope this week, as his 13/12 K/BB ratio caught up with him in a big way: 4 runs in 1/3 of an inning versus the Indians on the 21st. Soria, meanwhile, is making progress toward a much-anticipated return. He is expected to start a rehab assignment today.

Brad Ziegler, Athletics

Watch out for: Andrew Bailey

Ziegler took a loss against the Rays on the 21st, then recovered to toss two scoreless frames on the 23rd and 24th against Arizona (no saves. Darn.) Brad hasn’t received much support from his teammates, with a whopping .376 BABIP. Orlando Cabrera (-6.6 UZR/150) hasn’t contributed on either side of the ball thus far, and Jason Giambi (-29.3 UZR/150) has shown about as much range as a mastodon in a tar pit.

George Sherrill, Orioles

Sherrill had a superb week at the office, earning 3 saves and tossing four clean innings. He struck out 7 batters in the process, without issuing a single walk. His FIP is down to 4.08 for the season, and Sherrill appears to have a firmer grasp on his job for the time being, considering Chris Ray’s acts of arsonry.

Watch Your Back

David Aardsma (Brandon Morrow is in time out for the moment)

Would you believe that Aardsma ranks second among all relievers in WPA, at +2.20? It’s true: the well-traveled flame-thrower takes a back seat only to Texas’ Francisco. While Aardsma may rank 2nd in the category and first alphabetically, he continues to tempt fate with 13 walks in 21.2 innings. The 1.25 ERA looks great, but a .212 BABIP and a 93% strand rate suggest that anyone expecting sustained dominance will be disappointed.

In other M’s news, Morrow is attempting to work his way out of reliever purgatory. He threw four scoreless frames in two appearances this week, though his control is still Aardsma-like (2 walks against the A’s on the 25th). Just 43.9% of Morrow’s pitches have crossed home plate.

Jason Isringhausen/Dan Wheeler/J.P. Howell(?)

With Percival possibly headed for retirement rather than rehabbing his latest ailment (shoulder tendinitis), the Rays will pick and choose from a number of different options, including the recently-activated Isringhausen. Izzy tossed 3 spotless innings to start his abbreviated season, but he blew his first save chance against the Indians on the 25th (2 R, 3 BB’s).


N.L. Closer Report: 5/27

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Broxton saw game action twice this week, posting a spotless inning against the Mets on the 20th and then chucking 2 perfect innings against the Angels on the 23rd. His fastball, always buzzing, is up to 97.5 MPH from last year’s 96.3 and 2007’s 95.2. In fact, Broxton has increased the velocity on his cheese every year in the majors. Big Jon’s 1.83 WPA ranks 4th among relievers, and his 1.16 FIP ranks first.

Heath Bell, Padres

It finally happened: Heath actually had a runner cross home plate on his watch, as he surrendered 4 hits and a run against the Giants on the 21st. He has since converted two saves, a 0.1 inning gimme against the Cubs on the 22nd and a 1-inning opportunity versus the D-Backs on the 25th. Bell’s 94 MPH heater and hard slider are generating outside swings 31.2% of the time.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

K-Rod gave fantasy owners quite the scare this week. He collapsed outside of New York’s clubhouse with severe back pain, and was even placed on a stretcher. Fortunately, Rodriguez was well enough to convert a save op against the Nationals on the 25th, taking him up to 13 for the season. That’s a nice tally and the 0.83 ERA looks sparkling, but his K/BB ratio has declined for the fourth straight season: 3.5 in 2006, 2.65 in 2007, 2.26 in 2008 and 2.1 in 2009.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

Qualls had a squalid week, coughing up 4 runs and 8 hits in five innings. His numbers are still sturdy for the year: a 5.5 K/BB ratio, with a 2.36 FIP. His BABIP is up to .379, one of the highest marks among all relievers. If you can coax a skittish owner to surrender Qualls, go for it.

In Control

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Trevor still hasn’t surrendered a run in his new digs, running his scoreless inning tally up to 13. He’s 11-for-11 in save chances, has yet to give up a walk and he has snuck into the top 10 in WPA. Eventually he’s going to serve up some homers (he has yet to do that either), but Hoffman has been outstanding for the Brewers.

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Cincinnati’s stopper saw plenty of action this week, tossing five scoreless innings, whiffing four batters while walking none, and notching 3 saves along the way. Cordero’s 1.71 ERA overstates his case somewhat (he’s managed to avoid a single HR in 21 IP), but he has improved his walk rate from 4.86 in 2008 to 3.0 this season.

Matt Capps, Pirates

Mr. Capps would very much like to turn back the clock to March, and try this whole..2009 thing over again. The 25 year-old began the season by showing uncharacteristically sloppy control while battling an elbow problem. Just when he was getting back in a groove (2 spotless save ops on the 20th and the 24th), Capps’s right elbow was smashed by a Geovany Soto liner on the 25th. He may well be placed on the DL, and John Grabow looks like the man to take over ninth inning duties in such a scenario. Grabow is a Sherrill-esque lefty, who can miss some bats but is also too generous with the free passes.

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Watch out for: Ryan Madson

Not a single thing has gone right for Lidge since he made Eric Hinske jelly-legged on a slider last October. He was due for some regression in the homer department after surrendering just two long bombs in 2008 (3.9 HR/FB%), but this is getting ridiculous: Lidge’s HR/FB percentage sits at 19.4. After leading the majors in WPA in 2008, Lidge ranks second-to-last this season: only Brandon Lyon has been more hazardous to his team’s chances of victory. The Yankees (and A Rod in particular) victimized “Lights Out” for 4 runs in 1.1 innings.

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Franklin hasn’t worked since the 21st when he converted a cakewalk 0.1 inning save against the Cubs. His ERA (1.53) is sterling, but his 3.79 FIP and microscopic .187 BABIP suggest that the good times might not continue to roll.

Huston Street, Rockies

Street collected his 100th career save this week with a 2 K, 2 walk inning against the Tigers on 23rd. He tallied another one the next night, and Street’s K/BB ratio is up to 4.20 for the season. His first-pitch strike percentage sits at an impressive 72.4 percent, fifth among all relievers.

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson had a rough go of it against the temporarily-surging Padres on the 21st, giving up two runs and two walks while blowing the save op. He had a clean inning for a save against the Braves on the 25th, but Wilson’s WPA sits at a nasty -1.46 for the year. That sandwiches him between Lidge and Brandon Morrow, two other late-inning options having seasons to forget.

LaTroy Hawkins, Astros (Jose Valverde on DL with calf injury)

Hawkins pitched 3 frames this week (none of them save chances), tossing scoreless innings on the 21st (Brewers) and 26th (Reds), but he coughed up a run and two hits against the Rangers on the 22nd. A middle-inning ‘pen arm doing his best to fill in for Valverde, Hawkins has a 4.03 FIP and a negative WPA for the season.

Watch Your Back

Mike Gonzalez, Braves

Watch out for: Rafael Soriano

Gonzalez got himself into a mess on the 23rd against the Blue Jays (1 R and 2 walks), and Soriano bailed him out while earning the save in the process. Frustrating as it may be for fantasy-types, Bobby Cox has used his two best relievers with discretion, instead of following some blanket set of rules so that one guy earns a “SV” next to his name.

Matt Lindstrom, Marlins

Watch out for: Leo Nunez

Lindstrom had a devilish inning against the Rays, getting torched for 4 runs in a third of an inning on the 23rd. The 29 year-old has now issued 15 walks in 19 innings, holds a 5.06 FIP and a -0.18 WPA. Opposing batters are wisely sitting back and taking pitches, having offered at just 40.1% of Lindstrom’s high-90’s heaters and low-80’s sliders (44.6% MLB average, 50.3% career average for Lindstrom).

Julian Tavarez(?)/Kip Wells/Joe Beimel/Joel Hanrahan/Ron Villone(huh?), Nationals

Hanrahan (apparently the guy for now) continued the late-inning hijinks by uncorking a wild pitch and losing the ballgame against the Bucs on the 20th, but he has since worked 3 scoreless innings, with 2 saves and 4 K’s. Fooling hitters has never been a problem for the burly right-hander, but he’ll have to limit the walks to avoid being usurped again. He’s made baby steps on the front: his 3.80 BB/9 mark, while hardly great, is below last year’s 4.48.

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol

Gregg got into just one game this week as the Cubs scuffled, with a scoreless frame against San Diego on the 22nd. The former Marlin has had some poor luck on flyballs (16.7 HR/FB%) and his BABIP is .356, but he hasn’t done himself any favors with 10 walks in 18.1 innings.


The A.L. Closer Report: 5/20

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

That’s the Mo we know: since giving up 2 taters to the Rays on May 7th, Rivera has tossed 5 scoreless innings, with 5 K’s and one walk. His K/BB ratio is a sparkling 22/1 in 16.1 innings of work, and his Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP, which roots out Rivera’s misfortune on flyballs so far-his HR/FB% is 28.6) comes in at 2.04 (which bests last season’s 2.13). In fact, his XFIP has gone down each season since 2006. You get the feeling that he could do this forever, no?

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Even with his control departing him at times (10 walks in 18 IP), Papelbon has managed to rack up 11 saves in 11 chances. He’s not garnering the same number of swings on pitches outside of the strike zone to this point (26.3 Outside Swing%, compared to a 30.7 career average), as hitters appear content to try and draw a walk rather than tussling with Papelbon’s mid 90’s heat, slider or splitter.

Kerry Wood, Indians

8.5 games back in a lackadaisical AL Central Division, the Indians continue to burn whatever leads they hold in the late innings. The ‘pen ranks 29th in team WPA and FIP. Wood, coming off a nice season in Wrigleyville (2.32 FIP, 4.67 K/BB ratio) has been the most egregious arsonist, with a -1.08 WPA. His BABIP (.391) and HR/FB rate (25%) are wacky-high, but he’s done himself no favors with 7 walks in 13 innings. The 31 year-old is fresh off his worst appearance of the season: a four-run, two-homer debacle against the Royals last night. Here’s Wood’s woeful evening, in graphical form:

kerrywood5-19

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Jenks got into just one game this week, surrendering 3 hits and 2 runs in an inning of work against the Blue Jays on the 17th. On the plus side, his pitches within the strike zone haven’t been easily hit: opponents have made contact with 81.6% of his offerings in the zone, compared to 93.1% last season. His overall contact rate is down nine percent from 2008.

Joe Nathan, Twins

After reeling off 7 scoreless innings to begin the month of May, Nathan was surprisingly torched by the Yankees as part of the walkoff week extravaganza in the Bronx (3 hits, 3 R, 2 BB in 0.2 IP). Nathan hasn’t quite been his stellar self thus far, with a 3.95 FIP and his lowest K/BB ratio (3.00) since his last year with San Francisco in 2003. His overall contact rate (76.8%) is the highest we have on record going back to 2002 (his average from ’02 to the present is 71.3%).

In Control

Brad Ziegler, Athletics

Watch out for: Andrew Bailey

Ziegler hasn’t had many save chances, what with the A’s being clobbered on a nightly basis in the month of May (Oakland’s run differential now sits at negative 27 for the year). Still, the submarine righty will want to pick up his sinking performance if he wants to hold off Bailey: Ziegler his let 6 runs score on his watch this month in 6 IP.

C.J. Wilson, Rangers (Frank Francisco on DL with biceps tendinitis)

Francisco will be back soon, but Wilson will take whatever save ops arise until baseball’s WPA leader comes off the DL. It’s just plain hard to trust C.J. in the later innings: his whiff rate has gone down each season since 2006 (from 8.73 that season down to 5.51 in 2009), and it isn’t as though he’s painting the corners: his walk rate is near five. Just 42.8% of Wilson’s pitches have been within the strike zone (48.9% MLB average).

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes’ ERA sits at a lukewarm 4.61, but that’s because hits have fallen in against him at an absurd clip (.417 BABIP). His FIP (3.12) and strikeout rate (12.51 per nine innings) tell more of the story here. Fuentes hasn’t surrendered a run since May 4th. Try to buy low if you still can.

Scott Downs, Blue Jays

B.J. Ryan might be back, but Downs doesn’t much care: he just continues to mow down batters. Downs racked up 2 saves and 3 scoreless innings this week, taking his K/BB ratio to an obscene 22/2 in 19.1 innings. Downs was never really known for possessing razor-sharp command (his career BB/9 is 3.42), and he’s still not really pounding the zone. Just 45.7% of his pitches have been within the zone, but hitters are going hog-wild chasing his sinker and sweeping curve out off the plate and in the dirt (35.5 Outside Swing%, 6th among all relievers).

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Watch out for: Ryan Perry, Joel Zumaya

Rodney tossed three scoreless frames this week, though none came in a save situation. His K/BB sits at 11/4 in 16 innings. Zumaya, meanwhile, checks in at an uncharacteristic 7/0 in 11.1 innings. Zumaya has actually placed 57.8% of his offerings in the strike zone so far (51.9% career average). It’s Rodney’s job for now, but Detroit could be tempted to make a change if Rodney slips up.

Juan Cruz, Royals(Joakim Soria on the DL with shoulder soreness)

Cruz will get the save ops in Soria’s absence, but he hasn’t gotten to convert one since April 30th. The string-bean righty’s 1.45 ERA is rather misleading: he’s missed just 13 bats in 18.2 innings, while issuing 10 free passes. A .131 BABIP has greatly helped Cruz’s cause. His Outside Swing%, 30.1 in 2008, is down to 19.7% in 2009.

Watch Your Back

George Sherrill/Jim Johnson/Danys Baez(?), Orioles

Sherrill made just one appearance this week, converting a save chance against the Royals on the 16th. His control has been characteristically bumpy (7 BB in 15.2 IP), but he is at least garnering his highest Outside Swing% since 2005 (28.4% in ’09).

David Aardsma (Brandon Morrow is in time out for the moment)

Morrow sorrow: The former first-rounder out of Cal is banished to middle relief, though manager Don Wakamatsu says it’s just a temporary move. Still, the 24 year-old will want to pick it up: Morrow has 8 runs on his May ledger in just 3.2 innings, with 3 homers allowed.

Aardsma, meanwhile, will get the call for the time being. He’s not exactly a lock-down option, either: punching out over a batter per inning is great, but walking 5.79 per nine is a good way to give your manager an ulcer. Aardsma has eschewed his secondary pitches this season, throwing a fastball 89% of the time.

Troy Percival, Rays

Watch out for: J.P. Howell

Percival was torched for 4 runs and two dingers against the O’s on the 13th, and has since worked two quiet innings against the Indians (May 15th and the 17th). The 39 year-old is putting himself in the hole from the get-go: his 41.7 First Pitch Strike% ranks just ahead of Horacio Ramirez. That’s not the sort of company that a closer would like to keep.


The N.L. Closer Report: 5/20

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

New York’s new ninth-inning toy keeps rolling: Rodriguez has an eight-inning scoreless streak, having last been touched up on May 5th. K Rod has 11 saves, and his ERA has dipped under one. However, his overall performance is largely similar to his “disappointing” 2008 campaign: his FIP checks in at 3.20 (3.22 in ’08). The difference? A .220 BABIP, compared to .302 last year. Rodriguez’s K rate, while still by no means troublesome, is down again: 12.03 K/9 in 2007, 10.14 in ’08 and 9.15 this year.

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Apparently Broxton is human: he surrendered two runs to the Phillies on May 14th, but has since reeled off two scoreless appearances on the 15th and the 18th. Broxton continues to keep the ball on the turf, with a 54.5 GB%. That, coupled with a stratospheric K rate (14.4 per nine), helps to explain why just 3 runners have crossed the plate on his watch (20 IP).

Heath Bell, Padres

Bell remains unblemished in 2009, with his scoreless innings streak up to sixteen. The former Met will probably surpass DL’d Frank Francisco for the WPA lead among relievers during his next appearance. With the Padres obviously headed for a bleak season and the club short on highly-touted youngsters, do they consider leveraging their 31 year-old relief ace at the deadline? As good as Bell has been, last-place outlets should not cling to 30-something relievers if they have a chance to cash in.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

With 11.4 K/9, 1.20 BB/9 and a groundball rate near 70, Qualls has certainly done his part in a D-Backs ‘pen that ranks a mediocre 22nd in team WPA. His 73.3 First-Pitch Strike% ranks fifth among all relievers, and 56% of his offerings have crossed the plate (8th among ‘pen arms).

In Control

Matt Capps, Pirates

Capps continues to get bopped, with a 5-hit, 3 run train wreck against the Rockies on May 15th, a scoreless frame the following night and then a 1-run, 1-walk performance against the Nats on the 18th. Looking at his Pitch F/X data, Capps’ pitches have shown an interesting trend. His fastball has progressively shown less tailing movement in on right-handed hitters (5.8 inches in ’07, 5.1 in ’08 and 4.6 this year). Meanwhile, his slider has shown far more “sweeping” action away from righties (1.9 inches in ’07, 3.7 in ’08 and 4.9 this year).

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Hoffman is doing his best to match the man who replaced him in San Diego, as the 41 year-old changeup artist now has an 11-inning scoreless streak going to begin his Brewers career. His flyball-oriented ways have yet to surrender a homer, and his WPA checks in at 1.02.

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Watch out for: Ryan Madson

Lidge blew a save op and coughed up 2 runs against Washington on the 15th, but converted 2 save chances against those Nats the following two nights (including a 0.2 inning lay-up on the 17th). The .368 BABIP and 16.7 HR/FB rate won’t persist, but the lack of control (10 unintentional BB’s in 18.1 IP) is disconcerting. Lidge’s 47.8 First-Pitch Strike% checks in among the bottom 15 out of all relievers.

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Cordero was largely a spectator this week, getting into a game for the first time last night against the Phillies. He has yet to give up a homer in 16 frames despite a 34.1 GB%, so the 2.38 FIP is a bit misleading. Like K Rod, Cordero’s K rate is down for a third straight season: 12.22 in ’07, 9.98 in ’08 and 9.56 this season.

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson had a bumpy week, taking back-to-back losses against the Mets on the 14th and 15th, while giving up a combined 5 runs in 1.2 frames (he converted a save op against them on the 17th). Batters are making better contact with San Fran’s stopper in 2009: his Z-contact% (the percentage that hitters make contact with pitches inside the strike zone) has risen from 81.8% in 2008 to 91.7% this season (87.7% MLB average). With a couple of late-inning stinkers, Wilson’s WPA dips to -0.63.

LaTroy Hawkins, Astros (Jose Valverde on DL with calf injury)

Hawkins worked two innings this week, converting a save opportunity against the Rockies on the 14th but taking the loss on the 16th against the Cubs. Hawkins isn’t the ideal late-inning option, but he’s missing more bats than he has since 2004 (7.56 K/9).

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Franklin had an uneventful week, pitching 1.2 scoreless innings between two appearances (May 14th against the Pirates and the 18th against Milwaukee). Is this a good time to sell high on Franklin? He’s been pretty good (7.71 K/9, 1.65 BB/9), but his FIP (3.81) is much higher than his 1.10 ERA, and that .158 BABIP won’t continue unless he has a leprechaun hidden in that bushy goatee.

Huston Street, Rockies

Colorado’s ‘pen has been wretched in 2009 (28th in team WPA), so Street moves up a category through a combination of good pitching (6 IP, 7/1 K/BB, 0 R in May) and no other viable candidates to usurp him. Street’s peripherals are nifty so far (9.92 K/9, 1.65 BB/9), and with his BABIP and HR/FB rates stabilizing, his FIP is under four.

Watch Your Back

Matt Lindstrom, Marlins

Watch out for: Leo Nunez

Lindstrom gave up a run in a non-save situation against the Dodgers on the 15th, then converted a save op with a clean inning the following night. The hard-throwing 29 year-old has issued 10 walks in 15 frames this season, and his WPA sits at -0.31.

Julian Tavarez(?)/Kip Wells/Joe Beimel/Joel Hanrahan/Ron Villone(huh?), Nationals

“Here, you take it”: Does anyone want the Nats’ closing gig? Ron Villone, of all people, leads the ‘pen in WPA (0.31). Free agent import Beimel is (unfortunately) fitting right in thus far: the lefty journeyman has experienced pain along the Potomac. In 16 innings, his FIP sits near five, with a -1.35 WPA. Hanrahan, meanwhile, dished out 3 runs and two walks against the Bucs on the 18th. Could Villone take over by process of elimination?

Mike Gonzalez, Braves

Watch out for: Rafael Soriano

So far, Gonzalez has posted the highest K rate (12.74 per nine) and Outside Swing% (31.1) of his career. He served up a homer to the D-Backs on the 15th, and pitched a clean inning in an 8-1 blowout against the Rockies last night. The southpaw will need to continue the good work if he hopes to hold off Soriano, who boasts a 2.59 FIP (Gonzo’s is 3.03).

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol

Gregg’s Wrigley woes continue: after a six-appearance scoreless streak, Gregg imploded on the 16th against the Astros. Without retiring a single batter, the former Marlin gave up four runs, including two homers, while hitting a batter. His WPA is back in negative territory (-0.31), and just 43.2% of his pitches have caught the strike zone (51.2% career average, 48.9% MLB average).


Getting Ready to Bard the Door

The Boston Red Sox pitching depth is just getting ridiculous. This past off-season, I took a look at the incredible number of starting pitchers that the organization has that are ready to pitch in the Majors (which includes Michael Bowden, who is currently dealing in triple-A).

That depth is now starting to spill over into the bullpen. The club recently recalled Daniel Bard from triple-A. The right-hander is arguably the top relief prospect in all of baseball. Bard’s emergence is truly impressive, considering he all but flamed out in 2007 while pitching in high-A ball as a starter at one of best hitter’s parks (and leagues) in professional baseball. He posted a walk rate of 14.85 BB/9 in 13.1 innings and allowed 21 hits. His ERA was 10.13. The now-23-year-old hurler was demoted down to low-A that year where he posted a 6.42 ERA in 61.2 innings.

Moved to the bullpen in 2008, Bard improved his walk rate to 1.29 in low-A ball, with a strikeout rate of 13.82 K/9, and then skipped over high-A and dominated double-A with rates of 4.71 BB/9 and 11.60 K/9. At triple-A in 2009, he posted rates of 2.81 BB/9 and 16.31 K/9 in 16 innings of work. Bard allowed just six hits. His control is still iffy so there is room for improvement (which is a little scary to consider) and his mid-to-high-90s fastball is by far his best pitch, although the slider has improved a lot.

Now in the Red Sox bullpen, Bard will likely be used in low leverage situations (Thanks to the presence of Manny Delcarmen, Ramon Ramirez and even Takashi Saito) and his previous experience as a starter will come in handy if the club needs to use him for two or three innings. There is no doubt, though, that he will be the club’s set-up man in the near future, as long as the improvements in his control hold (or improve). When Jonathan Papelbon’s time as closer expires for the Red Sox, Bard should be ready to assume that role as well.

With his high strikeout totals and dominating stuff, Bard will no doubt be of great value to fantasy baseball owners in the not-too-distant future. Just be patient.


The A.L. Closer Report: 5/13

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Rivera actually had something of a rough week, giving up two long balls to the Rays on the seventh. That performance prompted manager Joe Girardi to leak that Mo’s surgically repaired shoulder has been giving the cutter demi-god some problems . Not that you’d know it from the 18/1 K/BB ratio, but Rivera’s cutter velocity continues to sit about 2 MPH slower than last season.

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Papelbon has yet to blow a save, but he has raised the collective blood pressure of Boston’s fans a little more than usual in the later innings. He has dished out 9 walks in 15 frames and holds a 3.72 FIP. His K/BB ratio stands at 2.11, compared to his career 4.66 rate.

Kerry Wood, Indians

Wood holds a 4.00 FIP, a middling mark, but that looks downright impressive compared to some of the other arsonists in Cleveland’s ‘pen: the Tribe 27th in reliever FIP and 28th in WPA. Wood had only one appearance this week, pitching a scoreless inning in a losing effort against the Tigers on the 9th.

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Jenks had progressively become more of a contact-oriented reliever over the past few seasons, with his K rate plummeting from the double-digits to just 5.55 per nine in 2008. In 2009, however, high-octane Bobby might be back: his heater velocity is up nearly 2 MPH from last season, and his contact rate has dipped from 84.5% in ’08 to just 74.4% in ’09, the lowest mark of his career (80.6% MLB average). Jenks has 12 whiffs in 12 innings thus far, and is a perfect 8-for-8 in save chances.

Joe Nathan, Twins

Nathan has reeled of 5 scoreless innings in the month of May. Nathan seems to be baiting opponents to chase his stuff out of the zone, with just 43.6% of his pitches crossing home plate (51.5% career average). The strategy appears to be working, as hitters have made contact on just 55.6% of those outside offerings (62.3 % MLB average) while chasing them 34% of the time (24.4% MLB average).

Frank Francisco, Rangers

Francisco hasn’t pitched since May 6th, as he deals with a bout of biceps tendinitis. Hopefully the injury isn’t serious: Francisco leads all relievers in WPA (2.00), with zero runs allowed in 14.2 frames. C.J. Wilson (4.49 FIP) and Eddie Guardado (7.55 FIP) will get any save chances in the meantime, though neither come highly recommended

In Control

Brad Ziegler, Athletics

Watch out for: Andrew Bailey

Ziegler continues to fight the flu, and he’s surrendered 5 runs (4 earned) in his last two appearances on the 7th and the 10th. Zielger hasn’t been bad this year (3.72 FIP), but Bailey has been a beast: with 24 K in 21.1 IP, the rookie right-hander holds a 2.53 FIP. Bailey’s low-90’s fastball, high-80’s cutter and mid-70’s curve have been extremely difficult to square up: opponents have just a 73.2% contact rate against pitches in the zone against the rookie righty (87.7% MLB average).

Brandon Morrow, Mariners

Back off the DL, Morrow walked two and gave up a run in an inning of work against the Twins on May 10th. We’re only talking about 7.2 innings of work so far, but Morrow has used his upper-90’s fastball 91.1% of the time, the highest rate among all relievers. Unfortunately, with 9 walks and just 41.3% of his pitches over the plate, his fastball control is a little rusty.

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes has a four-appearance scoreless streaking going, a modest accomplishment after a rough re-introduction to the AL (he was briefly a Mariner back in ’01). He’s still fooling batters (15 K in 11.2 IP), and his .421 BABIP is sure to continue dropping.

Scott Downs, Blue Jays

B.J. Ryan is nearing a return to Toronto, but his old cozy spot won’t be waiting for him. According to GM J.P. Ricciardi, Downs will remain the 9th inning man for the time being. It’s hard to argue with the decision, given Ryan’s rocky performance and Downs’ dazzling work (20/1 K/BB ratio, 1.90 FIP in 16.1 innings).

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Watch out for: Ryan Perry, Joel Zumaya

Rodney had his first rough stretch in terms of throwing strikes this week, issuing 3 BB in two appearances against Cleveland on the 9th and 10th. Hopefully, this isn’t a sign of things to come for the normally strike zone-challenged reliever: he had been doing a fine job of locating his pitches, with 59.2% of them ending up in the strike zone (fourth-highest among all relievers).

Juan Cruz, Royals(Joakim Soria on the DL with shoulder soreness)

The Mexicutioner hits the DL for a second time with a wonky shoulder, a troubling development. GM Dayton Moore says there’s no “structural damage” (“just” rotator cuff inflammation), but free agent import Cruz will handle the 9th inning for the time being.

Cruz’s ERA may sit at 1.88, but he’s struggled to throw strikes with an 11/9 K/BB in 14.1 IP. A .169 BABIP has aided him thus far, and he’ll have to do a better job of pounding the zone if he expects to have continued success.

Watch Your Back

George Sherrill/Chris Ray/Jim Johnson/Danys Baez(?), Orioles

Sherrill racked up a save last night against the Rays, and he’s apparently still the guy for the time being. The lefty has been rather hittable (opponents have made contact with 92.5% of his pitches within the zone, compared to the 87.7% MLB average), and Sherrill has handed out 7 walks in 14.2 IP. His grip on the job will always be tenuous; he’s like a southpaw version of Mike Williams.

Troy Percival, Rays

Watch out for: J.P. Howell

Percival has FIP’s of 5.87 and 4.80 over the 2008 and 2009 seasons, but he’ll continue to get the call in the 9th so that Balfour, Howell et. all can work more than 3 outs at a time. Percival has put himself in jams in his 8.2 frames of work, with a 44.4% First-Pitch Strike % (57.8% MLB average).


The N.L. Closer Report: 5/13

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

Rodriguez is 9-for-9 in save opportunities this season, with 16 whiffs in 15.2 frames. K Rod has always been a flyball-oriented sort (41.9 GB%), but he’s taken that tendency to the extreme in 2009: his groundball rate sits at 20%, third-lowest among all relievers. Luckily for the Mets, Citi Field is playing favorably toward such flyball-slanted arms in the early going.

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Broxton continues to produce Nintendo-style numbers on the hill, with 27 punchouts, 2 hits and 1 run allowed in 16 frames. The 24 year-old has been absolutely untouchable in May: in 5 IP, he’s punched out eight without a hit or a walk. Broxton will eventually surrender some bloops (his BABIP is .099), but his appearances are fast becoming Gagne-esque, “Game Over” events.

Heath Bell, Padres

Bell has had plenty of time to hit the Wii-Fit in recent days: he hasn’t appeared in a game since May 7th. Reality is hitting the Padres right between the eyes. After a 9-4 start, the Fathers have gone an unholy 4-16. Bell still hasn’t had a runner cross home plate on his watch, with an 11.2 inning scoreless streak and a 1.60 WPA that ranks second among relievers.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

Qualls is going through a rare rough path of pitching, having been scored upon in two of his last three appearances. Still, he holds a superb 16/2 K/BB ratio in 13 frames, with a 2.42 FIP that rates as his lowest figure in the majors.

In Control

Matt Capps, Pirates

Capps missed some time nursing a sore elbow, but that’s okay: the Bucs accomodated their closer by going on an eight-game losing streak. The beefy right-hander worked an inning of mop-up duty in last night’s 7-1 victory over St. Louis, again showing shaky control with two walks surrendered. Capps now has issued more free passes in 2009 than he did during the entire 2008 season.

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Watch out for: Ryan Madson

May has been rather cruel to Philly’s stopper: Lidge has surrendered 6 runs in his past four innings, with two more souvenirs entering the bleachers. He’s now given up 5 dingers in 13.2 innings, for a 21.7 HR/FB% that looks like a misprint. Lidge’s First-Pitch Strike% sits at 47.8% (58.9 career average). If his knee continues to bark and the long-balls continue, Madson could make a cameo in the event of a DL stint. Madson has a FIP hovering around two, and he’s kept the fastball velocity spike from late last season (94.7 MPH in 2009).

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Cordero is now 10-for-10 in save ops, missing bats (16 K in 15 IP) while also making things a little too interesting for Cincy’s fans (7 BB). Utilizing his mid-90’s fastball more often (71.8%) at the expense of his high-80’s slider (20.6%), Cordero has seen his Outside Swing% fall for a third straight season. Cordero threw that hard, biting breaking pitch 46.2% of the time in 2007, while garnering an O-Swing% of 35.4%. The slider usage dropped to 37.3% in 2008 (30.4 O-Swing%), and with another decrease in slider usage, his O-Swing% sits at 26.8% in 2009 (24.4 MLB average).

LaTroy Hawkins (Jose Valverde on DL), Astros

Filling in for Valverde, Hawkins notched a save on the 8th, gave up a pair of hits on the 9th and hasn’t pitched since. LaTroy is looking more like the fellow who posted back-to-back strong seasons with the Twins in 2002 and 2003, as opposed to the low-octane Orioles and Rockies version from 2006-2007. He has 13 K’s in 15 innings, with a 78.5% contact rate that rates as his lowest dating back to ’02 (80.6% MLB average).

Brian Wilson, Giants

With a career-high 3.17 K/BB ratio, Wilson has notched 8 saves in 10 chances. Hitters continue to take few hacks at Wilson’s offerings, swinging at 58.8% of his pitches thrown within the strike zone (65.9% MLB average). His fastball (just about the straightest pitch in the majors in 2007 and 2008, with less about a half an inch of horizontal movement compared to a pitch thrown without spin) is wiggling a little more in ’09, with 3.7 inches of tailing action in on righty batters.

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

“Hell’s Bells” has been a hit in Beertown thus far, with 7 scoreless frames, no walks and six saves. Interestingly, Hoffman’s signature changeup is showing more “sinking” action this season: thrown with 9.5 inches of vertical movement in 2007, the pitch had 8.8 inches of vertical movement in ’08 and just 6 inches in ’09. Perhaps it’s just a small-sample quirk, but could that have something to do with Hoffman’s uncharacteristic 66.7 GB%?

Watch Your Back

Matt Lindstrom, Marlins

Watch out for: Leo Nunez

Lindstrom has rebounded with seven straight scoreless appearances since April 24th’s bludgeoning at the hands of the Phillies. Never a control-artist, Lindstrom has issued 9 free passes in 13 innings, while locating just 45% of his pitches in the strike zone.

Julian Tavarez(?)/Kip Wells/Joe Beimel/Joel Hanrahan, Nationals

Beimel got the call in the 9th last night, and promptly served up a three-run bomb to hacking wonder Pablo Sandoval that turned a 7-6 lead into a 9-7 loss. Maybe he just wanted to fit in: seven of twelve relievers used by the Nats this season have negative WPA figures. Who gets the call next time out is anyone’s guess. Can Ryan Zimmerman close, too?

Mike Gonzalez, Braves

Watch out for: Rafael Soriano

While it might rankle fantasy owners, Braves skipper Bobby Cox made a refreshing decision in calling upon Gonzalez in the 8th against the Phillies on May 10th. With three straight lefties due up for Philly, Cox deployed his relievers in a manner that best called for them to be used. He didn’t obstinately say, “Gonzalez is my closer, therefore he must enter the game in the 9th with a lead between one and three runs.” If Cox continues this trend, it could cost Gonzo a few save ops while aiding the Braves overall.

On the year, Gonzalez has 19 K’s in 14.2 innings, with a 2.71 FIP. Soriano has blown hitters away to the tune of a 1.75 FIP in 16 IP, with 22 whiffs induced.

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol

Gregg took a beating to start the season, but he hasn’t given up a run in his last 5.2 innings, with a 7/2 K/BB ratio. Despite placing just 43.3% of his pitches in the strike zone (48.9% MLB average), Gregg has a 66.2 First-Pitch Strike% that eclipses the 57.8% big league average (that’s also the highest rate of his career). The pitches that Gregg does put in the zone are being swung at often (72.3%, 65.9% MLB average), with a low contact rate (78.7%, 87.7% MLB average).

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Franklin has finally been scored upon, after a run of 13 clean appearances to begin the season. The 36 year-old and his newfound cutter (thrown over a quarter of the time) coughed up two homers against the Reds on May 10th (to Jerry Hairston and Micah Owings).

Huston Street, Rockies

Street has had a rather quiet week, tossing a scoreless inning on the 8th versus the Marlins and then racking up a save in another spotless frame versus the Fish on the 10th. The former A’s stopper has posted rates of 9.45 K/9 and 1.35 BB/9, though 3 taters in 13.1 innings have put a damper on his line. Street’s a flyball-centric pitcher in a park where that’s a no-no, but his .355 BABIP and 17.6 HR/FB rate portend to better days ahead.


The A.L. Closer Report: 5/6

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

With 13 whiffs and no walks, Mo has been his typically dominant self. He’s given up 2 homers in 9.2 innings (half of his total in each of the past two seasons), but there’s no cause for concern here.

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Papelbon just hasn’t quite been himself this season: he’s issued 7 walks in 12 innings, just one fewer free pass than he gave up in 69.1 IP in 2008. Opposing batters seem content to wait Boston’s closer out, swinging at 47.5% of his pitches thus far (55.6% in 2008).

Kerry Wood, Indians

Wood is racking up the K’s (16 in 10 IP), but he has also walked 5 and owns a -0.14 WPA. As with Papelbon, opponents are keeping the bat on the shoulder more often as Wood works out his control kinks: his outside swing percentage (31.3% last year) is just 19.7% in 2009. Cleveland’s ‘pen has been as prone to fluctuation as any unit in recent memory, and ’09 has been a down year: Indians relievers own the third worst WPA mark in the big leagues, at -2.89.

Joakim Soria, Royals

Soria returned from bout with shoulder soreness to complete a five-out appearance on May 2nd against the Twins. He racked up a save the following night, and now boasts a 1.62 FIP in 7.2 innings.

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

6-for-6 in save ops, Jenks has an 8/4 K/BB in 9 innings pitched. His fastball velocity is up a tick from 2008 (from 93.8 to 94.8), though his outside-swing% is down for the third straight season (29.9% in ’07, 28.3 in ’08 and 23.5 in ’09).

Joe Nathan, Twins

Nathan has served up a couple early-season dingers, but he’s been his usual stellar self. Nathan’s low-to-mid-90’s heat and sharp high-80’s slider have gotten batters to chase pitches outside the strike zone 35.5% of the time (24.4% MLB average), which ranks in the top 10 among all relievers.

Frank Francisco, Rangers

Francisco has been untouchable in 2009: 8-for-8 in save chances, Francisco has yet to be scored upon in 13.2 innings of work. His 1.82 WPA leads all relievers, and he’s inducing outside swings at a higher rate than in recent years (30 outside swing%; 22.3% career average).

In Control

Brad Ziegler, Athletics

Battling the flu, Ziegler made his first appearance since April 25th last night (hey, it beats pulling your calf). With all the maladies afflicting Garciaparra, Chavez, Ellis and Casilla, among others, I’d bring my own shaman to the ballpark if I were an Athletic. Ziegler struck out two in a scoreless inning against the Angels last night, and has not surrendered a run in his last 8.1 innings pitched.

David Aardsma (Brandon Morrow on DL), Mariners

Morrow hit the DL with biceps tendinitis, but he’s expected back during the weekend or early next week. Aardsma gets the call until then. The erstwhile Cub, Giant, White Sock and Red Sock has shown why teams continue to be intrigued by his hard fastball/slider combo (11 K in 12. IP), but also why so many clubs have given up on him (8 BB).

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes is missing bats (13 K in 9.2 innings), and his FIP is an adequate 3.70. However, a mind-warping .457 BABIP has made the new Angels stopper look like a punching bag (6.52 ERA). Not that everything is hunky-dory: he’s located just 44.3% of his pitches for strikes (52.3% career average), which helps explain the four walks.

Scott Downs, Blue Jays

Downs is doing everything in his power to keep the ninth-inning glamour role for good. In 15.1 frames, he has a ridiculous 20/0 K/BB ratio, and he’s been scored upon just twice. His FIP is 0.77, with a near-70 percent groundball rate. Hitters are flailing at Downs’ sinker/curve mix, with a 38.5% outside-swing% that ranks 6th among all relievers.

Watch Your Back

George Sherrill/Chris Ray/Jim Johnson/Danys Baez(?), Orioles

Sherrill is officially on the ropes as Baltimore’s stopper, not a shocking development given his 2 blown saves and 3 dingers allowed in 11.2 frames. Ray, toting mid-90’s cheese and a mid-80’s slider, has whiffed 10 batters in 8.1 frames, though he’s also walked 4 (3 unintentionally).

Johnson (0.62) and Baez (0.42) rank one and two in terms of Baltimore WPA, though Baez is said not to be a candidate at the moment. Mostly a high-priced disaster with the O’s, Baez has a 13/5 K/BB ratio in 15.2 innings this year. Johnson, meanwhile, continues to post mediocre peripherals while posting superficially impressive ERA’s (2.45 ERA, 4.45 FIP in 2009).

Troy Percival, Rays

Percival racked up just about the easiest save he’ll ever get yesterday, retiring one Orioles batter. The 39 year-old has worked just 7.2 innings in 9 appearances, throwing less than a full frame on three occasions.

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Would you believe that Rodney (he of 4.43 career BB/9) actually leads all relievers in first-pitch strike percentage, at 82.1%? The typically combustible flame-thrower has tossed 60.7% of his pitches within the strike zone (fourth among all relievers), and he’s walked just one batter in 10 innings. Rodney has surrendered 5 runs, but with a 3.38 FIP (the lowest of his career), he really hasn’t been half bad.