For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Mo racked up two saves in three appearances this week, though he did give up a run against the Blue Jays on August 11th (Edwin Encarnacion hit a homer). The former Red’s round-tripper marked the first time that the opposition crossed home plate against Rivera since June 12th. He’s punching out 10.1 batters per nine innings, with 1.29 BB/9. Rivera’s 2.89 WPA is the 4th-best mark in the majors.

Joe Nathan, Twins

Joe gave up a run vs. Detroit on the 7th, but he bounced back to strike out the side against the Royals on the 12th (neither game was a save opportunity). Nathan’s K rate (11.75) is nearly two whiffs per nine higher than 2008’s mark (9.84), and he has lowered his walk rate to boot (2.39 BB/9 to 2.06 BB/9). His first-pitch strike percentage is 67.9, scores ahead of the 58.2% MLB average.

Joakim Soria, Royals

After seemingly forgetting that Soria was in the bullpen in early July, manager Trey Hillman has started to use the Mexicutioner (a former starter with a deep repertoire) to get six-out saves. Three of Soria’s last 5 save ops have been of the six-out variety, a refreshing change (in Hillman’s defense, Soria’s shoulder woes earlier in the season could have contributed to his usage). Joakim didn’t have a banner week, however. He was lit up on the 8th vs. the A’s, giving up dingers to Tommy Everidge and Mark Ellis. Soria did rebound against Minnesota yesterday, firing two scoreless innings.

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Papelbon pitched 2.2 scoreless innings between two appearances on the 7th (Yankees) and the 10th (Detroit), but he gave up 2 runs against the Tigers on the 11th (including a HR to Curtis Granderson). Papelbon’s FIP (3.55) is well north of his 2.69 career average, as 50.8% of his pitches are crossing home plate (that’s down from 54.5% in ’08; Jon’s Zone% has dipped each season since 2006).

J.P. Howell, Rays

J.P. twiddled his thumbs this week: he hasn’t made an appearance since our last Closer Report. The former Royal (pilfered from K.C. in June of 2006 for excellent-car-jumper-but-bad-ball player Joey Gathright) has punched out 10.54 hitters per nine innings, with excellent secondary offerings (+1.72 runs/100 pitches for the curve, +5.08 runs/100 for the change) and a sneaky mid-80’s fastball (+0.96).

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

With his kidney stones issue mercifully behind him, Jenks pitched 3.2 scoreless frames this past week (one save vs. Seattle on the 11th). Bobby hasn’t allowed a run in August, a welcome change after a July that saw far too many fireworks for the opposition (8 runs in 7.1 IP). Jenks has rates of 8.55 K/9 and 2.48 BB/9, giving him a 3.55 XFIP. That’s lower than 2008’s 3.86 figure, despite Bobby’s 2009 ERA (3.83) being 1.2 runs higher than his 2008 mark (2.63).

Andrew Bailey, Athletics

Bailey was touched up in the second half of July, but has begun August well. Bailey notched two saves this week, with clean innings against the Royals on the 9th and the Orioles on the 12th. He hasn’t walked a batter over his past six innings, and has rates of 10.13 K/9 and 3.09 BB/9 for the season. Bailey throws plenty hard (94 MPH with his fastball), but he doesn’t fit the archetypal power reliever mold. The former starter uses his heater around 56% of the time, mixing in cutters over a quarter of the time and curveballs about 15 percent.

David Aardsma, Mariners

Aardsma collected a save against one of his former teams (the White Sox) on August 10th, but the Pale Hose pummeled him for 3 hits and 3 runs (including a HR to Alexei Ramirez) in a blown save op on the 11th. The 27 year-old right-hander continues to rack up K’s (10.53 K/9) and walks (5.09) by the bucketful. Safeco suppresses homer production, but Aardsma has been lucky to surrender a 2.9 HR/FB% this season.

In Control

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes got 2 saves this week, closing the door vs. Texas on August 8th and the Rays on the 10th. The lefty hasn’t had much success with his slider this season (-0.26 runs/100 pitches), which helps to explain a lower outside-swing% (23.5, 29.4% in 2008) and a higher rate of contact (79.7%, up from 73.4% in ’08).

Frank Francisco, Rangers

Watch out for: C.J. Wilson

Francisco appeared just once this week, picking up a save vs. the Indians yesterday (his 16th of the season). Frank’s frequent absences (he’s been on the DL three times in 2009) might have obscured the type of season that he’s having. The 6-3, 230 pound righty has whiffed 10.05 per nine innings, with 2.3 BB/9. The key has been a filthy 86 MPH splitter. The pitch was rarely successful in the past (-0.47 runs/100 value since 2002), but the splitter has a +4.65 figure in 2009. Francisco has increased his usage of the pitch, tossing it 19.1% of the time after throwing the split closer to 10% in past seasons.

Kerry Wood, Indians

Kerry has actually resembled the closer in the free agent catalogue this month. In 4 August frames, Wood has whiffed 4, while walking none and surrendering no runs. As Pitch F/X whiz Harry Pavlidis noted on The Hardball Times, the Texan has scrapped his slider in favor of a cutter in 2009. There hasn’t been anything wrong with his new toy (+0.48 runs/100 pitches with the cutter) or his 80 MPH curve. Wood’s 96 MPH fastball, however, is another story (-1.15 runs/100 pitches).

Jason Frasor, Blue Jays (Scott Downs back on the DL with a left big toe injury)

Returned to the closer’s role with Scott Downs nursing a toe injury, Frasor frazzled hitters with 2.2 innings of spotless pitching this week (including a save vs. the Yankees on August 10th). Frasor’s 3.36 K/BB ratio is the best of his career, an uptick keyed by a climb in outside-swing percentage (24.7% in ’09, 18.8% career average).

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Rodney got rocked August 7th vs. the Twins (3 H, 2 R), and got taken deep by Michael Cuddyer on the 9th while collecting a save. Fernando picked up another save yesterday afternoon vs. Boston as well. Rodney’s ERA (3.78) is well below 2008’s mark (4.91), though he’s not really pitching all that differently. His XFIP is 4.19 in ’09, which is actually higher than 2008’s 4.06.

Jim Johnson, Orioles

Johnson got two saves this week (one against Toronto on the 7th and another vs. Oakland on the 11th), tossing three innings of scoreless relief overall. He throws awfully hard (94.4 MPH), but that doesn’t necessarily translate to a ton of missed bats. Johnson’s whiffing 6.36 hitters per nine innings, with a 4.19 FIP. He won’t be a liability in the role (Johnson does a decent job of limiting the free passes and getting grounders). But, it’s also hard to call Johnson a big asset, as a middle reliever cast into a late-inning role in a cut-throat division.

Watch Your Back

No one, at the moment.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Broxton really hasn’t been his typical dominant self since the All-Star break, as he has a 2.20 K/BB ratio since the mid-summer classic (3.82 K/BB prior). The 25 year-old blew a save op vs. the Braves on August 7th, chucked a clean inning against Atlanta the next night and then collected a save against San Francisco on the 10th (Bengie Molina took him deep). Perhaps Broxton’s toe injury is playing a part. Still, his overall numbers are sick: 13.24 K/9, with a 2.73 Win Probability Added.

Heath Bell, Padres

Heath had another successful week, collecting two saves in three innings without allowing a run. He failed to whiff a batter, a rarity given that Bell’s K rate (9.91) is well above his 8.19 mark during the 2008 season. The 6-3, 240 pound righty has dominated hitters with his 94 MPH fastball (+2.12 runs/100 pitches), as well as a pair of nasty breaking pitches (+1.24 runs/100 for the slider, +2.35 for the curve).

Huston Street, Rockies

Street started the week off well (a scoreless inning against the Cubs on the 7th), but Chicago then crushed the former Longhorn for 4 hits, 4 R and a walk in a 0.1-inning disaster appearance on the 10th. It was a rare blow-up for a guy who has posted rates of 10.41 K/9 and 2.12 BB/9, with a 2.26 WPA.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

With the Diamondbacks losing 4 of their last 6 (after winning their previous five games), Qualls didn’t see much action this week. He took the hill just once, and it did not end well: he struck out the side vs. the Mets on the 10th, but he was smacked for 3 hits and 2 runs in the process. On the whole, though, the former Astro is turning in a better year than his 3.66 ERA would suggest. His FIP is 2.87, as Qualls has just plain stopped walking people (0.96 BB/9 in 2009).

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Trevor pitched twice since our last Closer Report, firing a pair of clean frames vs. his long-time team. Hoffman punched out 2 Padres, without allowing a hit. The 41 year-old still hasn’t been taken deep this season, taking him up to 35 dingerless frames in 2009. While hitters aren’t chasing his stuff out of the zone (his 23.4 O-Swing% is about 9 pct. lower than in 2008), Hoffman’s mid-80’s fastball (+2.71 runs/100 pitches) and low-70’s changeup (+4.01 runs/100) are still producing excellent results.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

K-Rod has been more of an arsonist than a fireman as of late. Rodriguez endured a nightmarish appearance vs. the Padres on the 7th, getting flogged for 2 hits 5 R, 1 HR and 3 BB without retiring a single batter. He pitched a scoreless inning against San Diego on the 9th, but he was back to getting beat up against the D-Backs on the 12th (2 H and a R, though he did pick up the save, again proving that most Joe Blow relievers could convert 80-90% of save ops, too). The 27 year-old’s peripherals have been crumbling for years, and his 1.77 K/BB ratio is basically half of his rate with the Angels in 2006. K-Rod’s 0.54 WPA is just 3rd in the Mets ‘pen.

In Control

Rafael Soriano, Braves

Watch Out For: Mike Gonzalez

Soriano turned in a disaster piece outing vs. the Dodgers on the 6th (3 H and 3 R without retiring a batter, serving up a game-winning homer to Andre Ethier). Rafael pitched a scoreless inning the next night (no save), and then picked up his 17th SV of the year on the 8th (though he was touched up for a run). The pending free agent is punching out nearly 12 batters per nine innings, with a nasty 93 MPH fastball (+1.73 runs/100 pitches) and 83 MPH slider (+2.73 runs/100).

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson took a beating against the Reds on August 7th (2 hits, 4 R, 3 BB in a blown save op), but he did pick up a save vs. Cincy the next night and whiffed four batters in a 1.1-inning appearance against the Dodgers on the 12th. The 27 year-old is benefitting from a low HR/FB rate (4.3%), but he is pitching rather well with a career-best 2.75 K/BB ratio.

Jose Valverde, Astros

Valverde lost the strike zone during the last week of July (including 5 BB in a 2.1 inning stretch against the Cubs on the 27th and the 28th), but he appears to be back on track now. Valverde collected 2 saves this week, pitching 4 innings with 4 K’s, 0 runs and 1 walk allowed. Papa Grande’s percentage of pitches within the zone has taken a nose dive in recent years (from 59.2% in 2006 to 50.6% this year; the MLB average is 49.3%). Luckily, opposing batters are chasing more of those offerings off the dish (24.4% in 2006 to 32% this year; 25% MLB average).

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Walking the tight rope: Cordero coughed up 6 hits in 3 IP this week, but he Houdini’d his way out of all those base runners while allowing one run. He picked up 2 saves along the way. Co-Co’s peripherals for the season aren’t really all that special (7.35 K/9, 3.77 BB), but an 85.7% strand rate and a 4.5 HR/FB% have permitted him to escape many jams. Odds are, he won’t continue to be so fortunate in the future.

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Franklin continues to make my head hurt. He’s enjoying a nice season, with 6.2 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9. But those aren’t the sort of numbers that one associates with a Gagne-like 1.20 ERA. Franklin has stranded 91.6% of runners put on base, with a .232 BABIP and a 4.5% HR/FB rate. He’s been an amazing value for those who drafted or picked him up, but the 36 year-old didn’t suddenly emerge as a shut-down, top-tier reliever. He’ll likely be overvalued next season.

Matt Capps, Pirates

Capps kicked off the week with a superb 2-inning, 4 K appearance vs. Arizona on August 6th, but things would quickly turn sour for Pittsburgh’s embattled stopper. Capps blew a save against the Cardinals on the 7th (giving up 2 R without retiring a batter, with Skip Schumaker taking him out of the park), but that appearance looked downright effective compared to yesterday’s drubbing at the hands of the Rockies (0.2 IP, 4 H, 3 R).

Capps has the highest K rate of his career (8.52), but he has issued a career-worst 3.52 BB/9. It won’t do his owners much good, but there are reasons to think that Matt hasn’t been near as bad as that Ponson-esque 6.57 ERA. A .391 BABIP and an inflated HR/FB rate (14.5%) have damaged his season severely. Capps’ XFIP is 4.62. He’s never really been a relief ace: Capps’ XFIP has been in excess of four since 2006.

Watch Your Back

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Watch Out For: Ryan Madson

This just isn’t getting any better, is it? Lidge was leveled for 4 runs in 3 innings this week, including a blown save against the Cubs on the 11th. His control (5.36 BB/9) has been abominable, and his percentage of contact within the strike zone is up about 5 percentage points. Relief performance is subject to more year-to-year fluctuation, but it’s stunning to look at Lidge’s Wins Above Replacement totals from 2008 (2.2) and 2009 (-0.9). Who would have predicted that the best reliever in baseball last season would be less valuable than Chan Ho Park in 2009?

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol, John Grabow

Gregg notched a save against the Rockies on August 8th, but he took a loss against Philly on the 11th as he and Brad Lidge battled to see who could inflict more damage on their club’s chances of victory. His K/BB ratio (2.62) easily surpasses 2008’s mediocre 1.57 mark, but a 15.7 HR/FB% has assailed his season. Gregg’s XFIP (4.25) is actually the best figure he has posted since 2004.

Matt Lindstrom, Marlins

Watch Out For: Dan Meyer , Leo Nunez

Lindstrom (elbow) is off the DL, but Nunez nonetheless took three save chances (and converted each) this past week. The job is still ostensibly Lindstrom’s, but Matt will have to avoid those car wreck appearances that have come to define his 2009 season. On that front, it was a bad week for the former Mets prospect: 2.1 IP, 5 H, 4 R and a homer surrendered. A .365 BABIP certainly isn’t helping, but Lindstrom is issuing 5.4 BB/9.

His fastball has declined by over 2 runs per 100 pitches compared to 2008 (+1.08 runs/100 pitches in ’08, -1.07 in ’09). Some of that is the inflated BABIP (those extra hits falling in hurt him in the linear weights formula), but when the pitch that you throw three-quarters of the time isn’t working, you have problems.

Mike MacDougal, Nationals

The Nationals reeled off a stunning 8-game winning streak in which MacDougal racked up 5 saves, but the club has since dropped 3 in a row. If you take a very cursory look at the former Royal and White Sock’s season, you might think he’s pitching well (3.74 ERA, 11 for 12 in save ops). However, Mac has been an honorary member of the Mike Williams/Joe Borowski Closer Club, with an abysmal 17/26 K/BB ratio in 33.2 IP. His XFIP is 5.21.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Mo has fired 3.2 scoreless innings to begin August (including 2 saves vs. the White Sox on the 2nd and the Blue Jays on the 4th), fanning three while surrendering 1 walk and 5 hits. Rivera now boasts a 2.82 Win Probability Added, ranking 4th among all relievers. The Panamanian might not light up the radar gun quite as much as in years past (his cutter averages 91.4 MPH now, about 2 MPH slower than before), but that offering remains as deadly as ever (+2.27 runs per 100 pitches thrown).

Joe Nathan, Twins

Joe had an extended stretch without an appearance, striking out the side vs. the Angels on July 31st and then not returning to the bump until August 7th (he surrendered a walk and a run to Detroit). By whatever metric you would like to use, Nathan is showing no signs of slowing down at age 34. He’s whiffing 11.39 batters per nine innings, limiting the free passes as usual (2.11 BB/9) and generating ample swings on pitches outside of the strike zone (32.7 O-Swing%).

Joakim Soria, Royals

Soria was extremely busy to end the month of July, but the Rule V gem has chucked just one inning in August as the Royals lose five of seven to begin the dog days of summer. Joakim has K’d 11.37 batters per nine innings this season, while posting the lowest XFIP (3.04) of his big league tenure.

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Is Papelbon back on track? Not that the 28 year-old has turned in a poor 2009 season, but an inflated walk rate and a subsequent dip in Outside-Swing% suggested that the typically stingy hurler was missing his spots. Over his last three appearances (3.1 IP spanning from 7/31 to 8/7), Papelbon has punched out five without allowing a walk or a hit. The 6-4, 225 pound righty has a 4.30 XFIP for the season, 1.8 runs higher than his 2008 total.

J.P. Howell, Rays

Howell has endured an uneven beginning to the month. He gave up a homer to Yuniesky Betancourt (no, really) on August 1st, tossed 2.2 scoreless frames against Boston on the 4th and 5th, but again was taken deep yesterday in a soul-crushing loss to the Mariners. Howell has walked a batter in all four of his appearances this month, after issuing one free pass during the entire month of July. Recent struggles aside, J.P. has turned in an excellent 2009 season (10.54 K/9, with a 3.15 XFIP).

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Think you had a bad week? Odds are, it was better than Bobby Jenks’. The Angels castoff hasn’t pitched since August 1st, as he deals with the excruciating pain caused by kidney stones. Jenks had a rough month of July (8 R, 13 H in 7.1 IP), but hopefully his struggles will, um, pass.

In the short-term, Matt Thornton or Octavio Dotel could pick up a save chance.

Andrew Bailey, Athletics

The 6-3, 240 pound rookie picked up a save on July 31st vs. Toronto and collected another August 5th against the Rangers. Bailey doesn’t generate a ton of outside swings (his 25.2 O-Swing% is right around the MLB average). Instead, he uses his 94 MPH fastball, 90 MPH cutter and 78 MPH curveball to challenge (and pummel) hitters. Bailey has placed 53.7% of his pitches within the strike zone (49.3% MLB average), and opponents have put the bat on the ball just 74.1% of the time on those offerings (the lowest rate among relievers).

David Aardsma, Mariners

The well-travelled Aardsma continued his charmed 2009 season, collecting a save vs. the Royals on August 4th and then striking out the side against Tampa Bay yesterday in a non-save situation. On the down side, the former Rice star has walked a batter in each of his last three appearances (taking him back up to 5.08 BB/9 for the year). However, Aardsma is punching out near 11 batters per nine innings. He has accumulated 1.8 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) this season, tied with Joe Nathan for the second-highest total among ‘pen arms. Aardsma’s career WAR total prior to ’09? 0.1.

In Control

Brian Fuentes, Angels

After getting torched to end July (6 runs, 2 homers vs. the Indians on the 27th and 28th), Fuentes had plenty of time to recoup. He didn’t get into another game until August 5th, when he surrendered another run (and another dinger) against the White Sox. The port sider’s WPA sits at a modest 0.44 for the season, as hitters aren’t chasing his stuff off the plate as often (23 O-Swing%, down from a career-high 29.4% in 2008). Fuentes is having a hard time getting ahead of the opposition (his 53.2 First-Pitch Strike% is 5 percentage points below the MLB average), and when he does put a pitch in the zone, they’re doing a better job of making contact. Fuentes’ 86.3 Zone-Contact% is well above his 80.2% career average.

Frank Francisco, Rangers

Watch out for: C.J. Wilson

According to manager Ron Washington, Francisco is officially the closer in Texas again (until he contracts the Bubonic Plague or has a Looney Tunes anvil fall on him, that is). In between three DL stints, Francisco has compiled a nifty 34/8 K/BB ratio, displaying a nasty splitter that has hitters eagerly fishing off the plate (28.4 Outside-Swing%, well above his 22.7% career average). Given Frank’s frequent medical mishaps, Wilson is well worth keeping.

Kerry Wood, Indians

Wood got walloped again on deadline day (2 R, 1 BB, 1 HR in a blown save op vs. Detroit), but he recovered to toss three clean frames to begin August (1 save, vs. Minnesota on the 6th). Kerry is still in the red in terms of WPA (-0.38), as opposing batters have chased just 19.5% of his pitches thrown out of the strike zone. Velocity sure isn’t the problem, as Wood has actually picked up steam as the year has progressed (he’s throwing his fastball at an average of 96.4 MPH this month). A 15.9 HR/FB rate has made Wood’s ERA (4.85) look worse than it should (his XFIP is 4.26). Still, that’s not what the Indians signed up for over the winter.

Jason Frasor, Blue Jays (Scott Downs back on the DL with a left big toe injury)

Perhaps feeling the effects of his aching toe, Downs was taken to the wood shed in late July and early August (8 R, 5 BB, 11 H in 5 IP from 7/21 to 8/1). The 33 year-old is back on the shelf now, leaving closing duties to Frasor. An undersized righty, Frasor possesses a deep mix of pitches (including a 94 MPH fastball, an 84 MPH slider, and an 86 MPH changeup/splitter). He generally hasn’t gotten hitters to chase his stuff out of the zone (18.8 career O-Swing%) and has a walk rate around 3.9 per nine frames for his career. However, Frasor has parlayed an increase in outside hacks (25.1% in 2009) to a pared-down walk rate (2.33 BB/9).

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

The 32 year-old Dominican Republic native began the 2009 campaign showing unusually sharp control (2.57 BB/9 in 21 frames in April and May), but Rodney has since returned to his heartburn-inducing ways (6 BB/9 in 27 IP since). And you wonder why Jim Leyland smokes three packs a day?

Rodney’s percentage of pitches within the strike zone has been better in August (51.1%), but his monthly totals nicely illustrate his deteriorating ability to locate:

Zone%, by month:

April: 58.7
May: 48.8
June: 45.0
July: 41.8

(the MLB average is 49.3%; Rodney’s career avg. is 50.8%)

Jim Johnson, Orioles

Johnson had a sour run of appearances in late July (3.1 IP, 3 R, 2 HR from the 20th to the 28th), but he ended the month with a two-inning save. To begin August, the 6-5 right-hander has given up 1 run and a homer in three innings (he collected his 3rd save of the year vs. the Blue Jays yesterday). Johnson isn’t the worst option if you’re jonesing for saves. But, as a low-K closer on a talented-but-still-building O’s club, he’s also about as interesting as his name.

Watch Your Back

No one, at the moment.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Broxton pitched just once this week, tossing a scoreless inning against the Brewers on August 5th. Battling through a big toe injury, the 25 year-old experienced a bumpier month of July (6 runs in 11 innings, with 7 BB’s). It could be a complete coincidence, but Broxton’s pitch usage did shift in July. He’s throwing his 98 MPH fastball about 71 percent of the time for the year, while mixing in an 88 MPH slider 26 percent (he also tosses a rare changeup). But in July, Jon used his fastball over 81 percent of the time, while breaking out the slider just 17 percent. Would a slider be more likely to cause discomfort for his busted digit?

Heath Bell, Padres

Bell worked a scoreless inning in a non-save situation vs. Milwaukee on July 31st, then racked up saves on August 1st vs. the Brewers and the 3rd against the Braves. Heath’s 2.83 Win Probability Added ranks 1st among all National League relievers, as he’s laying waste to opposing hitters by either blowing them away (10.59 K/9) or inducing a weak grounder (51 GB%).

Huston Street, Rockies

Street can’t be stopped right now. The former Athletic flummoxed hitters in July (10.1 IP, 12 K, 0 BB, 2 H), and he started off August in style by whiffing two while getting another save vs. the Reds on the 2nd. Huston’s 5.3 K/BB ratio is a career high. Street’s 92 MPH fastball (+0.6 runs/100 pitches) and 83 MPH changeup (+0.23 runs/100) are faring well, but his sinister 85 MPH slider (+5.24 runs/100) has been death to batters.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

Qualls collected saves July 31st and August 3rd vs. the reeling Mets (no runs allowed). The sinker/slider righty notched another vs. Pittsburgh on the 5th, though the Bucs did manage to take him deep (Shane Spen…er Garrett Jones homered). Is Qualls morphing into a different type of reliever? His K rate is down, as is his walk rate. He’s putting more pitches in the zone, and opposing batters are connecting more often:

2007: 8.49 K/9, 2.72 BB/9, 51.7 Zone%, 85.5 Z-Contact%
2008: 8.67 K/9, 2.20 BB/9, 53.6 Zone%, 87.3 Z-Contact%
2009: 7.29 K/9, 0.99 BB/9, 54.6 Zone%, 89.9 Z-Contact%

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Back in familiar surroundings, Hoffman pitched a clean inning against the Padres in San Diego on August 2nd (a non-save op). Hell’s Bells picked up a save in his next appearance against the Dodgers the following night (though he did surrender a run), and then notched another on the 5th vs. L.A. Somehow, Hoffman has yet to be taken deep in 33 innings this season. Despite the microscopic ERA, Hoffman’s 2.7 K/BB ratio is actually his lowest mark since 1993 (a rookie season split between the Marlins and Padres).

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

K-Rod twirled a scoreless inning against Arizona on deadline day, then picked up a cheap 0.1 inning save vs. the D-Backs the following night. However, the Cardinals torched the first-year Met for 3 hits, 2 runs and a walk on August 4th. Rodriguez just hasn’t pitched all that well this season: his K/BB ratio is 1.85, and his XFIP is up yet again. The 27 year-old scarcely resembles the shut-down Angel of years past:

K-Rod’s XFIP by year:

2004: 2.63
2005: 2.97
2006: 3.22
2007: 3.53
2008: 3.71
2009: 4.27

In Control

Rafael Soriano, Braves

Watch Out For: Mike Gonzalez

Soriano got a save vs. the Dodgers on August 1st and pitched a scoreless inning against the Padres on the 5th, but his week took a sour turn yesterday in another tilt with L.A. Rafael was roped for 3 H and 3 R (including an Andre Ethier HR), and he took the loss as the Dodgers came back to win 5-4. Still, it’s hard to complain about his larger body of work: 12.06 K/9, with a 1.43 WPA.

Not that Soriano has problems with batters of either hand, but the Ethier bomb does make you wonder why manager Bobby Cox has stopped using he and Gonzalez based on matchups. Ethier has a pronounced platoon split during the course of career (.304/.377/.521 vs. RHP, .260/.320/.394 vs. LHP).

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson worked twice this past week, notching a save vs. Philly on August 1st, then retiring one batter against the Astros on the 5th. The 27 year-old righty might not be an elite option, but he has made some legitimate progress this season. Wilson’s K rate (9.63) remains very close to last year’s mark, but he has lowered his rate of free passes issued from 4.04 in ’08 to 3.21 per nine in 2009. The mixture of K’s, grounders (50.4 GB%) and better control make Wilson a safe pick on a contending club.

Jose Valverde, Astros

Valverde did collect two saves this week, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he pitched well. Papa Grande gave up two runs in 3.2 innings, including a dinger to Matt Holliday. The 30 year-old has punched out 9.87 batters per nine innings during an injury-marred 2009 season. That’s still plenty good, but it is the 4th straight year in which his K rate has fallen. Valverde’s trademark splitter has still been nasty (+1.02 runs per 100 pitches thrown), but his mid-90’s gas (-0.64 runs/100) hasn’t been its usual dominant self (+1.07 runs/100 career). There’s an interesting trend going on with Jose fastball. He’s throwing it much less, and throwing it harder:

2006: used 84.4% of the time, 93.5 MPH
2007: used 77.8%, 93.4 MPH
2008: used 74.1%, 95.5 MPH
2009: used 65.0%, 95.4 MPH

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Cordero made just one appearance this week, chucking two scoreless innings against Colorado in an eventual extra-innings loss. Co-Co has a 1.70 ERA on the season, but his XFIP (4.01) tells a different story. The righty has posted his lowest full-season K rate (7.65) since 2000. A .238 BABIP and 4.9 HR/FB rate have hidden the overt signs of decline, but batters are making more contact and swinging at fewer pitches out of the zone.

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Franklin continues to confuse, with two more spotless innings to his ledger this week (one save, vs. Houston on July 31st). His 3.77 XFIP is over two runs higher than his actual ERA (1.70), as the crafty former starter has benefitted from a .242 BABIP and a microscopic 4.8 HR/FB rate. This has to end at some point, but Franklin and his half-dozen pitches sure are fun to watch.

Matt Capps, Pirates

The Mad Capper turned in a superb week. Capps collected a save versus the Nationals on July 31st, then tossed three more scoreless frames in two appearances against the Diamondbacks. In all, he punched out 8 batters in 4 innings, without walking anyone. While he’s still throwing a 93 MPH fastball about 70 percent of the time overall, Capps has increased the usage of his secondary pitches (an 84 MPH slider and a hard 87 MPH changeup). During that four-inning tear to begin August, the 25 year-old used his slider nearly 50 percent of the time. Capps’ K rate for the year (8.36) is well above his career mark (6.95).

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Watch Out For: Ryan Madson

The Fighting Irish alum threw two quiet innings this week, including a save vs. the Rockies yesterday. A positive development to be sure, but it’s just difficult to trust the guy as he battles a balky knee. His walk rate (5.4 per nine) remains stratospheric, and opposing hitters have made contact with 84.7% of pitches thrown within the zone (nearly 10 percent above his career mark).

Watch Your Back

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol, John Grabow

Just when you thought it was safe to trust Gregg again, the bespectacled reliever goes out and coughs up 6 hits, 4 runs and three homers in his first two August appearances (1.1 innings vs. Florida). Gregg’s peripherals (9.24 K/9, 3.73 BB/9) aren’t all that bad, but a 15.2 HR/FB% (his career rate is 8.2%) has put a serious dent in the overall numbers. This is the sort of thing that can happen in the 60-80-some innings that a reliever tosses in any given season. Gregg is much the same guy he has always been (namely, a good middle reliever), but a few extra flyballs scrape over the fence and the season line looks crappy.

Matt Lindstrom, Marlins

Watch Out For: Dan Meyer , Leo Nunez

Fresh off a DL stint for an achy elbow, Lindstrom pitched two scoreless innings to begin the month. Uncharacteristically, he didn’t K or walk anyone in either appearance (Aug. 2 vs. the Cubs, Aug. 5th vs. the Nats). Matt’s velocity was down slightly (95.3 MPH), but that doesn’t seem like much of a concern. Of much greater importance is his placing his pitches better: Lindstrom’s walk rate sits at 5.81 per nine innings in 2009.

Mike MacDougal/Sean Burnett, Nationals

What a strange week, huh? MacDougal and the Nationals had three saves during the entire month of July, yet the transiently surging club has strung together five wins in a row (with four saves for Mac). Still, with a 0.6 K/BB ratio in 31 innings, MacDougal has been anything but a late-game stopper.

Check Back tomorrow for the A.L. Closer Report.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

(Quick Note: The N.L. Closer Report might be a little shorter than normal this week: with the trade deadline today, our site’s bandwidth is getting one heck of a test, and accessing the player pages is taking longer).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Big Jon tossed a scoreless inning vs. Florida on the 25th (earning his 7th win of the year), but he blew a save chance in an epic extra-inning affair vs. St. Louis on the 29th. He did rebound to pick up his 24th save against the Cards last night, however. Hampered by a toe injury, Broxton has issued 7 walks in 11 innings during July. After posting insanely low BABIP figures in April (.118) and May (.224), Broxton has been plagued by plenty of bloops and duck snorts in June (.333) and July (.320). George Sherrill is now in town, but there’s no reason to think he’ll mount any sort of challenge for the closer’s role.

Heath Bell, Padres

Bell chucked just one inning for the Fathers this week, notching his 25th save vs. the Reds on the 28th. Heath’s walk rate has remained similar to his 2008 mark (3.3 BB/9 this year, 3.2 in ’08), but his K rate has spiked to 10.7 per nine. Bell has taken the punch out act to a new level this month, with 12 K’s in 6.2 IP.

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Trevor appeared twice this past week, issuing 2 walks in 0.2 IP against Washington on the 28th and collecting a save (2 K, 1 H) vs. the Nats the next night. Hoffman has yet to be taken deep in 30 IP. That figures to end sometime soon, though the has raised his groundball rate drastically over the past three seasons (from 30.2% to 44.8%) while lower his FB% from 37.2 to 24.1.

Huston Street, Rockies

Equipped with a nasty slider, Street continues to slaughter opposing hitters in the late innings. Huston has allowed just one run during July, with 11 K’s, no walks and 2 hits allowed. Obviously, he’s had some good fortune to allow so few base runners (.105 BABIP), but it’s hard to argue with the results. Street’s 5 K/BB ratio is nearly double his 2008 mark (2.56).

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

Qualls is clearly back on track, posting a .229/.245/.271 opponent line in July after June’s .279/.279/.535 mark. He’s not punching out many hitters as of late (4.57 K/9 in June and July, after posting a 9.86 figure in April in May), but the sinkerball pitcher has issued just a single walk over his past 21.2 innings, and holds a 58% groundball rate for the season.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

K-Rod coughed up 3 hits, 2 R and a HR against the Astros on the 25th, then threw a scoreless inning vs. Colorado in a none-save chance on the 27th. While his cursory ERA or save numbers won’t reflect it, Rodriguez’s peripherals continue to erode. His K/BB ratio this season is just 1.92, down for the fourth straight season.

In Control

Jose Valverde, Astros

Did I curse Valverde or something? After we mentioned his increase O-Swing% and pretty solid control, Papa Grande issued 5 walks in 2.1 innings vs. the Cubs on the 27th and 28th. Though neither was a save chance, Valverde evaded danger and escaped with his scoreless innings streak intact (9.2 IP since the Fourth of July).

Rafael Soriano, Braves

Watch Out For: Mike Gonzalez

Perhaps it’s time to move Soriano up. The former Mariner has a sparkling 4.06 K/BB ratio in 2009. Gonzalez (3.15) has certainly been no slouch, but Soriano has taken the last nine saves for the Braves. Health permitting, Soriano is an elite fantasy option. Alas, it’s hard to put him in “Death Grip” territory when he has missed so much time during the course of his career.

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson notched 2 saves and a W this week, with 4 K’s in 3 IP. San Fran’s stopper has gradually given up fewer extra base hits as the year has gone on:

Slugging Pct. by month:

April: .390
May: .380
June: .227
July: .189

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Much like the other N.L. closer named Francisco, Cordero has a great-looking ERA (1.79) with murkier peripherals. Co-Co has an uncharacteristic 7.4 K/9 mark (9.3 career), but a low .252 BABIP and HR rate (0.4 per nine) have made him look like a lock-down reliever. Is the 34 year-old losing the ability to fool hitters? His swinging strike percentage is down for a third straight season, and is his lowest rate going back to 2003.

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

I know that I must sound like a broken record regarding Franklin, but he’s a good middle reliever enjoying the season of his life. With 6.8 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9, the 36 year-old is hardly pitching poorly. But a 1.36 ERA? With a .223 BABIP? That bushy goatee must have some talismanic power.

Matt Capps, Pirates

Just when it looked like Capps might be turning a corner, he has done his best Mike Williams impression as of late. Matt gave up 2 runs (including a homer to rookie Gerardo Parra) on the 26th, then took a loss in an extra-inning contest with the Giants on the 29th. A .358 BABIP has certainly done him no favors, but Capps’ usual pristine control has not been present. He has walked 4 batters per nine innings, leaps and bounds above his career 1.7 mark. Capps’ name has often come up in trade rumors, but the Bucs would likely be selling low if they part with him.

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Watch Out For: Ryan Madson

The embattled Lidge threw two spotless innings in non-save ops on the 26th (Cardinals) and 27th (D-Backs), but he then served up two runs (including a dinger to Mark Reynolds) against Arizona on the 28th. With 5.7 BB/9, “Lights Out” has been sub-replacement level in 2009.

Watch Your Back

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol, John Grabow

Gregg gave up 3 hits and two runs against Cincy on the 24th, collected two very cheap 0.1 inning saves vs. the Reds the next two nights, then struck out the side in a non-save change against Houston yesterday. Grabow was brought in from the ‘Burgh, but the changeup artist has often missed the mark this season (5.3 BB/9, the 3rd straight year that his walk rate has increased). Odds are, Gregg has nothing to worry about.

Matt Lindstrom (right elbow sprain) on the DL; Leo Nunez is filling in

Watch Out For: Dan Meyer

Lindstrom is near a return to action, and is expected to resume closer duties. Hopefully the time off aided the former Met’s MIA control and lowered swinging strike rate:

2007: 34.7 Ball%, 12 SwStrike%
2008: 34.8 Ball%, 9.4 SwStr%
2009: 37.5 Ball%, 8.9 SwStr%

(the averages for a reliever are 36.5 and 9.5, respectively)

Mike MacDougal/Joe Beimel/Sean Burnett, Nationals

Not to be rude, but does it even matter? The last save recorded by a Nats pitcher went to MacDougal, all the way back on the 22nd. In most ‘pens, Mac would be on the brink of an all expenses paid trip back to the International League (10/16 K/BB in 23.1 IP). Want an example of velocity being only one component of an effective fastball? MacDougal chucks his in the mid-90’s, yet has a swinging strike rate (4.1%) is less than half the average rate for relievers (9.5%).

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

It was more of the same for Rivera this week, as he tossed two innings (one save) while punching out four hitters. Opponents have made more contact against Mo this season (his Z-Contact% of 90.4 is by far the highest we have dating back to 2002), yet he has the highest K rate (10.18) since 1996. Rivera’s swinging strike percentage is down for a third straight season (from 11.8% in ’07 to 7.9% in ’09; 9.5% average for relievers), but he has seen an increase on his called strike percentage (17.7% to 20.2%; 16.1% average for relievers).

Over that same span, hitters are swinging at fewer of Rivera’s pitches within the zone (66.8% in ’07 to 61.9% in ’09; 65.7% MLB average). Mo is putting fewer of his pitches within the zone (53.4% in ’07 to 46.3% this season), and hitters are still swinging at the same number of outside pitches (about 35%). However, they’re making over 10 percent more contact with those outside pitches, which helps to explain the increase in Rivera’s foul ball percentage (23.1% this season; 17.8% average for relievers).

All of that is a rambling way of saying:

– more called strikes, due to a decrease in Z-Swing%, fewer swinging strikes due to an increase in Z-Contact%
-Rivera is putting fewer pitches in the zone, but hitters are still happily chasing a ton of those offerings. They’re making contact more often on those outside pitches, which has led to an increase in foul balls (which puts Mo up in the count and makes it easier for him to K a batter)

Rivera might not be outright dominating hitters as often by making them swing and miss, but opponents have actually put the ball in play just 16.5% of the time this year, according to StatCorner (his lowest rate dating back to 2003).

Joe Nathan, Twins

Joe recorded three saves this week (taking him up to 29 for the year), working 2.1 spotless innings as the Twins took three from the White Sox. The 34 year-old has shown no signs of decline in 2009. His 5.44 K/BB ratio is the second-highest mark of his career (5.94 in 2006), and his 66.7 First-Pitch Strike% is the highest we have dating back to 2002. Hitters have just a 13% line drive rate against the Minnesota relief ace, and they’re getting jammed often. Joe holds a 20.5 Infield/Flyball rate, third among all relievers.

Joakim Soria, Royals

The Mexicutioner had a busy, successful week. The former starter recorded a (gasp!) six-out save on the 25th vs. Texas, then collected two more saves against the O’s on the 27th and 28th. Soria has a devastating 14/1 K/BB in 11 July innings. The 25 year-old is garnering outside swings at a career-best 30.9 percent clip.

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Papelbon endured a rocky week. He recorded a save vs. Baltimore on the 24th while giving up two hits and a walk, then was smacked for 3 H, 3 R and a walk against the A’s on the 28th. He did notch a silent save against Oakland yesterday. The 28 year-old has been at less than his best this season: his walk rate remains above four (4.09 BB/9), with a 3.69 FIP that’s a full run higher than his career mark.

J.P. Howell, Rays

J.P. continues to roll, with three innings of scoreless relief (one save, one win) and 4 K’s since out last Closer Report. Howell was very impressive in 2008, but he’s been even better this season. His K/BB ratio has climbed from 2.36 to 3.08, he’s inducing more outside swings (22.2% to 26.9%), and he has lowered an already-stellar contact rate (73.8% to 68.1%).

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Bobby has hardly been King of the Hill in July. In 7.1 frames, he has served up 13 hits, 8 runs and 4 walks. If there’s a silver lining, it’s that Jenks may be able to be acquired at a less-than-premium price from an angered owner. His 4.33 ERA looks horribly disappointing, but Jenks has suffered from a .338 BABIP, with a HR/FB rate (15.2%) way above his career average (8.7). His K/BB for the season is 3.7, well above 2008’s 2.24 mark. It may sound crazy at first, but Jenks’ 2009 is probably better than his 2008 work, bloated ERA and all.

Andrew Bailey, Athletics

Overall, Bailey has turned in a superb rookie season. He has whiffed 10.2 per nine innings, with 3.30 BB/9 and a 2.75 FIP. Perhaps he’s tiring a bit, though. The 6-3 righty has given up 4 runs in 7.1 IP since July 19th, with 8 H surrendered. He’s a converted starter, but Bailey has thrown more innings than every reliever except Chicago’s D.J. Carrasco and Los Angeles’ Ramon Troncoso.

David Aardsma, Mariners

Outside of a nightmarish, 5-run drubbing by the Orioles on July 8th, Aardsma has not been scored upon this month. While the well-traveled righty will never be known for surgical control, his wild tendencies have at least been partially under control over June and July (3.38 BB/9 in 24 IP). Aardsma’s approach is pretty darned simple: throw one mid-90’s fastball after another (he has used the pitch over 88% of the time), with excellent returns (+2.16 runs/100). Opponents aren’t chasing his stuff out of the zone often (20.1 O-Swing%, about 5 percent below the MLB avg.), but they’re having problems connecting when Aardsma does put one over the plate (his 77.1 Z-Contact% is over 10 percent below the MLB avg).

In Control

Brian Fuentes, Angels

L.A.’s stopper had been money for most of July (8.1 IP, 7 K, 2 BB from 7/2 to 7/23), but Fuentes has been anything but en fuego in his last two appearances. In two spots vs. the Indians on the 27th and 28th, the lefty was mauled for 6 runs, 6 hits and two homers, without retiring a single batter. Fuentes’ 4.29 ERA overstates his struggles (his FIP is 3.78), but he hasn’t exactly been a shut-down option in high-leverage situations (his WPA is +0.45). The soon-to-be 34 year-old’s 90 MPH fastball has been effective (+0.84 runs/100 pitches), but his slurvy mid-70’s breaking pitch (-0.40) and changeup (-3.59) are not getting the job done.

Scott Downs, Blue Jays

Downs posted minuscule walk rates earlier in the season by virtue of getting a boatload of swings on pitches off the plate (his O-Swing% for the season sits at 34.8%). Will opposing batters continue to be fooled by his sinking high-80’s heater and big curve? Scott has surrendered 7 runs in 6.2 July innings, with 6 free passes. Downs’ O-Swing% has remained lofty this month (37.7%), but he has placed just 42.1% of his pitches within the zone (49.3% MLB avg), with a First-Pitch Strike% of only 52.6 (58.2 MLB avg). One bad month isn’t cause for panic, but you would think that hitters would begin to show more restraint if Downs continues to miss the mark with his stuff.

Kerry Wood, Indians

Woody only worked once this week for the under-construction Indians, notching a save vs. the Angels on the 27th. The 32 year-old’s main issue for the season has been fastball control: his mid-90’s gas has posted a run value of -1.07, while Wood’s near-90 MPH cutter/slider (+0.61) and 80 MPH curve (+1.87) have often had the desired effect. With a -0.53 WPA for the season, Kerry has been exactly replacement-level to this point a year after notching 2.2 WAR with the Cubs. Paying good money for even established relievers is a risky proposition, as the Tribe will surely attest.

C.J. Wilson, Rangers (Frank Francisco on the DL yet again, this time with pneumonia)

Francisco is making progress toward a return, but Wilson surely wouldn’t mind if the seemingly cursed closer takes his time on the rehab trail. The 28 year-old lefty has punched out 8.6 batters per nine innings, with 3.8 BB/9 in 45 IP. There’s nothing wrong with those rates, but Wilson’s 2.80 ERA is pretty far ahead of his 3.61 XFIP.

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Rodney has given up just one run this month, with 12 K and 4 BB in 9 IP. The changeup-centric reliever does not appear to have any immediate threats challenging him for 9th-inning duty. Rodney is pulling the string even more than usual in 2009, throwing his 84 MPH changeup 42.1% of the time, with a +2.65 run value per 100 pitches (his best mark since 2005).

Jim Johnson, Orioles

With George Sherrill now in Dodger blue, the 26 year-old Johnson would appear to be the best candidate to claim the closer role.

A 5th-round pick by the O’s back in 2001, Johnson looks like a power pitcher but isn’t. Sure, he’s 6-5, 225 and chucks his fastball near 95, but he has a career 5.46 K/9 mark in the majors. Johnson posted a dubious 2.23 ERA in 2008- he posted rates of 4.98 K/9 and 3.67 BB/9, but managed not to give up a single dinger in 68.2 IP. To his credit, he has improved his peripherals in ’09 (6.52 K/9, 2.98 BB/9 in 48.1 IP). Johnson uses the aforementioned fastball more than three quarters of the time to induce grounders (the pitch has 8.2 inches of tailing action on righties, over 2 inches above the norm). With that offering, as well as an 80 MPH curve and a hard changeup, Johnson has induced grounders at a 55.6% clip during his career.

Watch Your Back

No one, at the moment.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Any early-season concerns about Rivera’s mortality are decidedly in the rearview mirror, as the Hammer of God has not given up a run since June 12th (a stretch of 14.2 innings). His K/BB ratio is an obscene 45/4 in 41.1 innings, and the run value on Rivera’s cutter (currently +2.29 per 100 pitches) climbs by the appearance. Mo’s XFIP (based on BB’s, K’s and a normalized HR/FB ratio) is 2.20. That’s the fourth straight season that his XFIP has decreased.

Joe Nathan, Twins

How good has Nathan been in 2009? The 2 runs he gave up in a blown save op vs. the Angels on July 23rd were the first tallies against him since May 15th. Joe has whiffed 10.8 batters per nine innings, while posting the lowest walk rate (1.88 BB/9) of his career. Nathan is generating his highest percentage of outside swings we have on record dating back to 2002 (32.7%), and all three of his pitches are decimating hitters. Whether he chucks a 94 MPH fastball (+3.25 runs/100), 88 MPH slider (+2.08) or 82 MPH curve (+2.62), the end result is the same: the batter ain’t getting on base.

Joakim Soria, Royals

Cliff Notes version of Kansas City’s second half: Royals lose a lot, Soria doesn’t pitch enough. K.C. blows several 8th-inning leads while leaving the club’s best ‘pen arm to flick sunflower seeds and drink Gatorade. In another example of why using your best reliever only when he can earn a “SV” next to his name is shoddy strategy, Soria has tossed 7 innings this month. Roman Colon, Juan Cruz, Ron Mahay and Jamey Wright have all gotten more work in July. Huh? When Joakim has taken the mound, he has been his customary dominant self (1 R, 9 K, 0 walks).

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

While under the weather (flu), Papelbon has turned in his finest month of the season. The 28 year-old has punched out 8 batters in 7 innings, with 1 walk and 1 run allowed. Uncharacteristically wild in the early going, Papelbon has pounded the zone as of late:

Zone%, by month:

April: 48.1%
May: 46%
June: 54.1%
July: 59%

Not coincidentally, Papelbon’s mid-90’s gas has been as its best in July (+4.97 Runs/100). It’s beginning to look like Boston’s stopper is back to his old dominant self.

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Jenks has turned in a bumpy July. In 6 innings, he has allowed 10 hits, 6 runs and 4 base on balls. His K/BB ratio (3.5) is still well ahead of last year’s pace (2.24), and there appears to be little chance of anyone overtaking Bobby as he works out the kinks in his delivery. Pale Hose skipper Ozzie Guillen, uh, made that pretty clear recently:

“Wow, what did this kid do to this town to make people treat him like that? He’s my closer, and if people don’t want him to be my closer, don’t come to the [bleeping] game.” (chicagotribune.com)

J.P. Howell, Rays

Apparently entrenched as Tampa’s closer, Howell will only climb this list in the weeks to come. J.P. tossed 13 scoreless frames in June, and has made 6 spotless appearances out of seven this month (a 3-run hiccup vs. the A’s on the 12th being the exception). Howell is an odd bird as a closer, but just because he doesn’t fit the fire-breathing archetype doesn’t mean he can’t wipe the floor with hitters. His oft-used curveball (+2.44 runs/100) and changeup (+3.67) have been superb, and that mid-80’s fastball is certainly holding its own (+1.16).

Andrew Bailey, Athletics

Bailey has given up runs and taken losses in back-to-back appearances (on the 19th and the 21st), but he otherwise has enjoyed another stellar month (12 K, 2 BB, 6 H in 10.1 IP). The rookie righty sports rates of 10.48 K/9 and 3.18 BB/9. His 68.4 percent contact rate is the 6th-lowest among all relievers (teammate Mike Wuertz, at a stunning 56.5%, leads all ‘pen arms).

In Control

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes hasn’t coughed up a run since May, a run of 16 innings in which he has K’d 17 and walked five. The first-year Angel has posted the lowest walk rate (2.78 BB/9) of his career, though I’m not entirely sure how, to be honest. He’s not generating a bunch of outside swings (24%, one percent below the MLB avg), his Zone% is down (47.8%, 52.1% career average) and so is his First-Pitch Strike % (53.8%, 56.4% career average).

Scott Downs, Blue Jays

Activated from the DL before the All-Star break, Downs returns to the closer’s role with little competition. He has whiffed a career-best 9.49 per nine innings in 2009, relying heavily on opposing batters getting themselves out by expanding their strike zones (34.2 O-Swing%, nearly 12 percent above his career rate). Like Howell, Downs is another example of a guy getting power-pitcher’s results with movement and deception. Downs’ pitches don’t sizzle, but his 90 MPH fastball has a ton of tailing action (10.6 inches; the avg, lefty fastball has 6.4 inches of tail) and his 76 MPH curve features plenty of sweeping (7.5 inches) and dropping (7.3 inches) movement.

David Aardsma, Mariners

Believe it or not, Aardsma hasn’t actually exhibited bad control over the past two months. Since the beginning of June, the former Giant, White Sock, Cub and Red Sock has a 29/7 K/BB in 22 frames. His Zone% for the season is up to 49.7% (including 56 percent in July), which is slightly above the league average, and his BB/9 is back under five. Aardsma has typically walked the yard during the course of his career and his BABIP (.256) is on the low side. But as a flyball pitcher, behind great defenders, in a pitcher’s park, he’s in the perfect situation.

Kerry Wood, Indians

Kerry has turned in an adequate July, with 3 runs, 8 K’s and 2 walks in 7.1 innings. Saves have come few and far between for the also-ran Indians (Wood has 13 on the year), though the Texan is at least generating more outside swings of late. Wood has a paltry 20.7 Outside-Swing% for the year (over 10 percent below his 2008 rate), though that mark is up to 31.5% this month.

George Sherrill, Orioles

Sherrill went on a tear in June (11 IP, 1 R, 8/2 K/BB), but his July performance has been milder (7.2 IP, 4 R, 9/4 K/BB). The 32 year-old would appear to be a prime trade candidate for the O’s, who are still likely two years away from mounting any kind of serious threat to the beasts of the A.L. East. His walk rate (2.97 BB/9) is a career-low, and his 64 First-Pitch Strike% is the highest of his big league tenure.

C.J. Wilson, Rangers (Frank Francisco on the DL yet again, this time with pneumonia)

With the thrice-D.L.’ed Francisco yet again unavailable, Wilson will pick up the save chances. The 28 year-old southpaw is still a little on the wild side (45.9 Zone%, compared to the 49.3 MLB average), but he has reigned in his walk rate from 2008’s unacceptable 5.24 to this year’s 3.77 mark by virtue of getting more swings outside of the zone. Wilson has also generated more grounders (56.3%, 49.3 in 2008). He’s not a great reliever, but there are certainly worse options out there.

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Rodney moves up into “In Control” status, due to a combination of good pitching and Zumaya’s shoulder going “boom” yet again. In 7 July innings, Fernando has allowed 1 run, with 8 K’s and 3 walks. With 4.28 BB/9 and just 47.5% of his pitches thrown within the zone, Rodney is still something of an adventure in the late innings.

Watch Your Back

No one, at the moment.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Overall, Broxton has been downright Gagne-esque in 2009. He has whiffed fourteen and a half hitters per nine innings, has the fourth-best WPA (2.87) among relievers and shuts the door for the best team (by far) in the National League.

But not all is well in Mannywood. Unfortunately, Broxton is suffering from a big toe injury that manager Joe Torre feels will linger for the duration of the season. Big Jon had a rough couple of outings prior to the All-Star break (5 R, 5 H and 4 BB in 2 IP on the 5th and the 10th), and he walked two in his first post All-Star appearance. However, he has turned in three spotless appearances since, including saves vs. the Astros on the 19th and the Reds on the 20th.

Going forward, Broxton should still be plenty dominant. But his first-half reign of terror is not something we should expect over a long period of time from any reliever, bum toe or not.

Heath Bell, Padres

Bell finally surrendered a home run this week, as Florida’s Chris Coghlan took him deep in a non-save situation on the 22nd. Heath hasn’t had the tidiest of months (4 R, 8 H in 5.2 IP), but he holds one of the top 10 WPA marks in the majors (2.49), with an increase in K/9 from 9.19 in 2008 to 10.53 in 2009 (a career-high). The uptick in punch outs seems to have come at the expense of some control: his walk rate is up to career-high 3.43 per nine frames (the 4th-straight year that it has increased). His percentage of pitches in the zone over that period has gone from 54.6% in ’06 to 47.7% this year (49.3% MLB average).

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Hoffman collected a save against the Reds on the 16th and the Pirates on the 21st, giving him 22 on the year. Trevor has yet to be taken deep in 28.1 frames.

While he’s obviously been fortunate in that regard, the extreme flyball hurler (34.6 GB% since 2002) has generated grounders at an above-average 48.1% clip in 2009. Looking at Hoffman’s Pitch F/X data, his fastball and changeup have both shown two inches less vertical movement this season. Take a look at the vertical (Z) break on Hoffman’s fastball/changeup mix over the past three years:

2007:
Fastball 14.8 Z, Changeup 9.5 Z (30.6 GB%)

2008:
Fastball 14.6 Z, Changeup 8.8 Z (39 GB%)

2009:
Fastball 12.4 Z, Changeup 6.5 Z (48.1 GB%)

The relative difference in vertical break between the fastball and change remains about the same (a good thing), but he’s isn’t throwing quite as high in the zone.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

With the Mets plummeting into oblivion (look, Francoeur can’t bear to even watch anymore), save chances have been sparse in Queens (one since the All-Star break). Want an example of why ERA isn’t such a good measure for relievers? K-Rod’s has dropped three years in a row (2.81 in 2007, 2.24 in 2008 and 1.81 in 2009), yet his K/BB has dipped from 2.65 to 1.80 over that time, with a jump in FIP (2.70 in ’07, 3.22 in ’08, 3.58 this year). A low BABIP (.236) has veiled the signs of decay, but the 2009 version of Rodriguez hasn’t been especially good.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

After a rough June, Qualls appears to be back on track in July. In 9 frames, he has given up 2 runs while issuing just 1 walk. Qualls isn’t missing as many bats this year (7.49 K/9 in ’09, 8.67 in ’08), but he has been extremely stingy with the free passes (1.13 BB/9, the 4th straight year that he has lowered his walk rate).

The 30 year-old is inducing more contact these days: his Z-Contact% (pct. of contact within the zone) has increased by five percent since 2007, with a 10 percent increase in total contact. He’s still burning worms (59.8 GB%) and has posted a 2.82 FIP, but his ERA (3.63) is inflated due to some shoddy D behind him. The D-Backs (27th in Defensive Efficiency) have allowed a .325 BABIP behind Qualls. Groundballs do have a higher BABIP than flyballs (.231 to .221), but that’s an excessive figure nonetheless.

Huston Street, Rockies

Street is on a serious roll. He has allowed 1 run all month, without walking a batter in 7.1 frames. The erstwhile Athletic holds an exceptionally strong 4.70 K/BB ratio for the season, with a mid-80’s slider that is carving up the competition (+4.74 runs/100 pitches). After posting a -0.01 WPA last year, Huston has a 1.87 mark in 2009.

In Control

Jose Valverde, Astros

Valverde has also allowed just a single tally in July, with 9 K’s and one walk in 7.2 innings. Papa Grande’s year has been interrupted by a calf injury and he has had some issues with the long ball (15.4 HR/FB%), but he has maintained a near 11 K/9 pace while paring down his walk rate for the 4th straight season (from 4.01 BB/9 in 2006 to 2.25 this year). Interestingly, Valverde hasn’t made some concerted effort to put more pitches over the plate: his Zone% has gone from 59.2% in ’06 to 53% in 2009. Rather, his Outside-Swing% has soared:

2006: 22.4%
2007: 24.4%
2008: 33%
2009: 36.4%

Rafael Soriano, Braves

Watch Out For: Mike Gonzalez

Has Soriano wrested the full-time closer’s gig from Gonzalez? It would appear that way. After all, Rafael has taken the last 8 save chances for the Braves. While the merits of the switch to more rigid bullpen management can be debated, Soriano’s set role is certainly a good thing for fantasy owners. The immensely-talented-but-fragile righty has decimated hitters for 12.02 K/9 this season, with the second-best WPA (2.97) in the bigs. His 93 MPH cheese (+2.4 runs/100 pitches) and 83 MPH slider (+2.53) have been near-unhittable this year.

Matt Capps, Pirates

The All-Star break came at an opportune time for Capps, who was throttled for 5 runs, 6 hits and two walks in a 0.1 inning debacle vs. the Phillies on the 11th. Since the respite, he has tossed three scoreless innings (one save) while whiffing 5 hitters. Don’t be totally surprised to see Capps’ name floated in trade talk over the next week; Pittsburgh’s front office is not shy about making bold moves if they feel it betters the franchise long-term. Shipping out a good-not-great reliever with a recent history of shoulder problems wouldn’t be a total shocker.

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Co-Co hasn’t seen much work lately, with two appearances (1 save) since the All-Star break. The 34 year-old has experienced a rather startling drop in his K rate, from a career-high 12.22 K/9 in 2007 to 7.58 this year. A .250 BABIP and a low HR/FB rate (2.9%) make his ERA (1.66) look pristine, but there are some warning signs here. Opponents are putting the bat on the ball more often (64.5% contact rate in ’07, 77.2% in ’09) and aren’t chasing nearly as many pitches out of the zone (22.9% in 2009, two percent below the MLB average).

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Franklin converted a 1.1 inning save vs. Arizona on the 19th, but blew an opportunity against the Astros on the 22nd (4 H, 2R in 0.2 IP). The Cards closer certainly hasn’t been poor this year: his K rate (7 per nine) is a career-high and his K/BB in 3.5. But his .230 BABIP, near 93% strand rate and low HR/FB rate (5.7%) suggest he’ll resume being a pretty good reliever stretched as a relief ace.

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Watch Out For: Ryan Madson

Lidge continues to make both Phillies Phans and fantasy owners tear their hair out. Last year’s WPA leader has endured an explosive July, with 5 runs and 6 walks coughed up in 7.2 innings. Hobbled by a knee injury, Lidge has lost all semblance of control (5.91 BB/9). His fastball has arguably been the worst in baseball (-2.92 runs/100 pitches), and his trademark slider has been merely average (-0.02). How much leash will the first-place Phillies give him?

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson has worked four clean innings since the break, with one save converted vs. Pittsburgh on the 19th. Paradoxically, Wilson’s K rate has remained unchanged (9.67 in ’08, 9.76 in ’09) despite an increase in zone contact rate (81.8% to 86%), and his walk rate has dropped (from 4.04 to 3.32) despite a drop in pitches within the strike zone (54.3% to 49%).

Watch Your Back

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol

Is it time to move Gregg up a peg? In 11.1 July frames, he has given up 3 runs with a 9/3 K/BB, and it’s not as though Marmol (with a staggering 8.55 BB/9) has done much to inspire confidence. He’s still something short of a ninth-inning asset, but Gregg’s WPA is up to 1.34.

Matt Lindstrom (right elbow sprain) on the DL; Leo Nunez is filling in

Watch Out For: Dan Meyer

The Marlins appear to have settled on Nunez as the 9th-inning option, with Meyer (outperforming Nunez in FIP and WPA) assuming set-up duties. Leo converted save opportunities vs. San Diego on the 20th and 21st. He has often walked the tight rope in 2009, posting a first-pitch strike percentage (55.9%) below the major league average (58.1). However, Nunez has been plenty hard to hit, with batters making contact with just 75.4% of pitches thrown within the strike zone (87.8% MLB avg).

Mike MacDougal/Joe Beimel/Sean Burnett, Nationals

Interim manager Jim Riggelman recently announced that the Nationals will use a “closer-by-committee” approach, which is a diplomatic way of saying that no one really deserves the high-leverage job.

MacDougal, Beimel and Burnett are all in play for the rarest of baseball events: a Nationals save chance. MacDougal (11/22 K/BB ratio…seriously) is throwing mid-90’s fastball after mid 90-‘s fastball with little clue as to where the ball is headed. Beimel, by contrast, has used his mid-80’s “heater”, good curve and decent changeup to post a 4.14 FIP that marks him as more decent middle-man than relief ace. Burnett, like Beimel, is a former Pirates port sider who relies on a quality breaking ball (+1.22 runs/100 pitches with the slider). Burnett’s 2.66 ERA might catch your eye, but his .206 BABIP takes some of the shine off; his FIP is 4.25.

Overall, the situation in Washington is a fantasy wasteland.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Broxton appeared just once this past week, and it was a rocky cameo to say the least. Big Jon allowed 3 runs and 3 walks against the Padres on July 5th. To put that in perspective, Broxton coughed up a total of 4 runs in April and May combined. His numbers for the year are still terrifying, as he leads all relievers in FIP (1.39) while placing ever so slightly behind teammate Ramon Troncoso in WPA (2.64 to 2.63). Broxton’s 14.75 K/9 ranks nearly three whole K’s per nine above second-place Octavio Dotel.

Heath Bell, Padres

The first-time All-Star selection worked twice this week, with a 1.2-inning save vs. the Dodgers on the fourth (he allowed 1 run, 1 H and 1 BB), and then tossing a scoreless inning in a non-save chance the following day. One would assume that Bell (5th in WPA, without giving up a homer in 36.1 frames) is on the trading block. He’s pretty darned good, but has more utility to the also-run club as a trade chip.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

K-Rod appeared once this week, allowing a homer to Manny Ramirez against the Dodgers on the 8th. The Queens closer is arguably in the midst of his worst season in the majors, despite posting his second-lowest ERA (1.77). Rodriguez’s FIP sits at a mediocre 3.69, the product of 9.07 K/9 and 5.09 BB/9. The lack of control is becoming a serious concern; this is the 4th straight year that K-Rod’s BB rate has increased, and he isn’t missing as many bats as he used to either. Opponents have responded by swinging at fewer pitches outside of the zone. Rodriguez’s O-Swing% has dropped from 30.2% in 2007 to 23.6% in 2009.

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Hoffman got into just one game this week, picking up a bumpy save (2 walks and 1 hit) against St. Louis on July 8th. Trevor walked one batter in his first 18 appearances, but he has issued 6 free passes in his last 7 trips to the mound. Hoffman still hasn’t given up a long ball in 24.1 innings pitched.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

Qualls collected 3 saves in 4.1 scoreless innings this week. Hitters touched up Qualls more than usual in June as he fought through forearm tightness (85.1% contact rate that’s 6 percent above his 2009 average, with 8 R in 9.2 IP), but Arizona’s closer appears to be back on track.

In Control

Matt Capps, Pirates

Capps got into just one game this week, racking up a save vs. the ‘Stros on July 7th. He walked just two batters in 11 June innings and has pitched two-walkless frames in July, a happy development after Capps issued 9 walks in 15.2 frames during April and May. The Texan’s Zone% was 56.8% in June, after posting marks of 51.6% in April and May.

Huston Street, Rockies

Street soaked up 4 innings this week, allowing 1 run while collecting three saves. His WPA (1.46) is already higher than every full season other than his 2005 rookie campaign (3.70). Street’s Zone%, which dipped to a below-average 47.5 in 2008, is back up to 51.6% this year. That helps to explain how his walk rate has been shaved down from 3.47 in ’08 to 2.35 in 2009.

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Last year’s WPA leader (5.37) still ranks dead last in 2009 (-2.18) by a considerable margin. He collected two save vs. the Mets on the 4th and 5th, but Bad Lidge reared his ugly head again against the Reds on the 7th (2 H, 1 R, 1BB while taking the loss). Lidge did collect another save vs. Cincy yesterday. Opposing hitters have made contact with 85.7% of Lidge’s pitches within the zone, about 11 percent above his career average.

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Cordero collected two saves this week, with scoreless frames against the Cardinals on the 4th and the Phillies on the 7th. Cincy’s closer has a WPA (2.02) that places him among the top 10, but it’s been something of a high-wire act. Cordero’s 1.88 K/BB is his worst mark since 2000; a very low BABIP (.251) and HR/FB rate (3 percent) have veiled a drop in K/9 from 12.22 in 2007 to 7.50 in 2009.

Jose Valverde, Astros

Valverde picked up one save in three appearances this week, punching out 5 batters and surrendering 1 run in the process. Though Papa Grande has endured some long ball woes (17.4 HR/FB%), he also totes rates of 11.44 K/9 and 2.75 BB/9. Valverde’s mid-90’s gas hasn’t hit the mark often enough (-1.06 runs/100 pitches), but his mid-80’s splitter has been stellar (+2.10).

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Equipped with rugged facial hair and a brand-spankin’ new cutter, Franklin owns a microscopic ERA (0.83) and 20 saves in 21 chances. Still, color me very skeptical. While Franklin’s K rate (6.61) is higher than usual, his .209 BABIP, mind-bending 99.2% strand rate and low HR/FB rate (6.1%) portend to bumpier days ahead.

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson whiffed three while getting the save vs. Houston on July 5th, but the Marlins filleted him for 3 hits and two runs on the 6th (he still got the cheapie save anyway). By WPA, Wilson has been one of the worst 15 relievers in the bigs (-0.84). In sunnier news, his 2.8 K/BB ratio is a career-high.

Watch Your Back

Mike Gonzalez/Rafael Soriano, Braves

Soriano has picked up the last four save opportunities for the Braves, as Bobby Cox appears to be leading toward the man who ranks fourth in WPA (2.51) and 3rd in FIP (1.94). Gonzalez (0.80 WPA, 3.31 FIP) gave up 3 runs to the Nationals on the fourth, got two holds in scoreless frames on the 7th and 8th vs. the Cubs, then coughed up 2 more runs vs. the Rockies yesterday in his third straight day of pitching.

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol

Gregg got the save against the Braves on the 6th, then gave up 2 runs vs. Atlanta in a non-save situation on the 8th. Overall, Gregg holds a 0.70 WPA, with rates of 8.92 K/9 and 3.66 BB/9. Chicago’s stopper is using his low 80’s slider more than ever 30.6% of the time), though the breaker hasn’t been as effective this year (-0.41 runs/100 pitches, +0.70 in 2007 and 2008).

Matt Lindstrom (right elbow sprain) on the DL; Leo Nunez, Dan Meyer are filling in

It’s hard to say just who will get the call in the 9th for the Fish. Since Lindstrom hit the shelf, Meyer and Nunez have collected two saves apiece. In terms of 2009 performance, the back-from-the-dead Meyer (once a prized prospect for the Braves and A’s) has Nunez beat in FIP (3.58 to 4.38) and WPA (1.22 to 0.46). Meyers’ past as a top starting prospect is still apparent out of the ‘pen, as he has used three different pitches to quell hitters. His 91 MPH fastball (1.13 runs/100 pitches), mid-80’s slider (+3.24) and high-70’s change (+4.19) are all working right now. Nunez also uses the same three offerings often. His 94 MPH heater (+2.24) and mid-80’s slider (+2.34) are dynamite, while an oft-utilized hard changeup (-1.75) is getting hit hard.

Mike MacDougal, Nationals

MacDougal is fantasy baseball’s equivalent of “in case of emergency, break glass.” If you have no other ninth-inning options, then I suppose you might be desperate enough to use Washington’s “stopper.” Then again, you might just want to run out of that burning building instead. MacDougal’s K/BB ratio for the year is 10/19 in 21 innings. Sure, he throws hard (95.2 MPH), but that hasn’t stopped batters from making contact with 87% of his pitches.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

No Mo Runs: Rivera hasn’t seen a runner cross home plate on his watch since June 12th, a stretch of 10.1 innings in which he’s whiffed 11 and walked none. The Panama native has an obscene 43/3 K/BB ratio, with a 2.73 FIP that’s dropping like a lead balloon has his early-season homer woes subside. Rivera’s cutter is heating up:

Runs/100 for Rivera’s cutter:
April: +1.54
May: +0.57
June: +2.45
July: +6.13

Joe Nathan, Twins

There’s little to report on the Nathan front: Joe hasn’t gotten into game action since the Fourth of July, as the Bronx Bombers swept the Twins in a three-game set. Nathan’s FIP (1.88) is second among relievers, with his fastball (+3.05 runs/100), slider (+2.28) and curve (+1.70) firing on all cylinders.

Joakim Soria, Royals

Soria notched 4 saves this week, twirling 4.1 innings of scoreless relief vs. the White Sox, Tigers and Red Sox. He K’d 7 and walked no one. In between DL stints for a barking shoulder, Soria has posted rates of 11.74 K/9 and 2.74 BB/9, giving him a career-best 4.29 K/BB ratio. Soria’s contact rate is at a career-low 70.5%, and his First-Pitch Strike% is also the best of his big league tenure (64.5%, 58% MLB average).

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

By no means has Papelbon been bad this season; he just hasn’t been the absolutely dominant, Irish-jigging force that we have become accustomed to seeing. Boston’s stopper has a 3.89 FIP, the product of an inflated walk rate (4.26 BB/9). His percentage of pitches within the strike zone has dropped over 4 percent from 2008, and his signature mid-to-high 90’s cheese has been merely good (+0.71 runs/100 pitches; +2.23 career average).

Of course, all of this worrying could be for naught. Fretting too much about a half-season’s worth of pitching from a reliever is a good way to get yourself in trouble by selling low. Relief performance is notoriously volatile; Papelbon could resume his fire-breathing, door-slamming performance in the second half and it wouldn’t be surprising at all.

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Jenks quietly turned in an excellent first half, with 8.79 K/9 and 1.88 BB/9. An inflated HR/FB rate (18.5%) has left his line looking merely good, but Bobby has reduced his percentage of contact within the zone nearly 10 percent from 2008 (93.1% to 83.6%). He’s missing bats, displaying sharp command and still burning worms (54.2 GB%). That’s a recipe for success.

Frank Francisco, Rangers

Francisco picked up a clean save against the Rays on the 5th, but he served up a dinger to Juan Rivera in a non-save situation vs. the Angels on the 7th (his second HR allowed since being activated from the DL). The 6-3, 230 pounder might be throwing too many strikes in July. His Zone% is 62.3 this month, and opponents have made contact with 90.6% of those offerings within the zone (his Zone% for the year is 53.7, and his Z-Contact% is 80.8). Even with the rough return, Frank holds a 4.29 K/BB for the year, with a 1.91 Win Probability Added that ranks just outside the top 10.

Andrew Bailey, Athletics

Bailey got some well-deserved rest this week. Though fantasy owners are probably gritting their teeth at Oakland’s moribund offense (the rookie stopper collected a 1.1 inning save vs. Cleveland on the 5th, and hasn’t pitched since), Bailey is on pace to toss 94 frames in 2009. That’s probably not as worrisome as it sounds, though, as Bailey is a converted starter. Four of the 25 year-old’s nine saves have tasked him with getting at least four outs. Imagine that: using your best reliever when the situation calls for it. Oakland isn’t afraid to call on Bailey to get a tough out in the 8th and then pitch the 9th, a good thing for A’s fans and Bailey owners alike.

In Control

J.P. Howell, Rays

Dan Wheeler got a save yesterday afternoon, but don’t worry too much. J.P. needed a day off after working back-to-back games against the Jays. The best reliever no one talks about, Howell’s bass-ackwards curveball and changeup-oriented arsenal has produced rates of 10.67 K/9 and 3.48 BB/9. The curve (+2.01 runs/100 pitches) and change (+3.50) have been devastating, perhaps allowing Howell’s mid-80’s heat to play up (+0.97) as hitters sit off-speed.

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes picked up his 24th save of the season on July 5th, but hasn’t taken the bump since. The former Colorado southpaw has lowered his walk rate for third season (from 3.38 BB/9 in 2007 to 2.76 BB/9 in ’09), a curious development given that his percentage of pitches within the zone has dipped from 52% in ’07 to 47.1% this year. Fuentes’ slurvy breaking pitch hasn’t been sharp (-1.19 runs/100), but his 90 MPH fastball (+1.91) is perplexing opponents.

Scott Downs, Blue Jays

Downs returns from the DL just as the Blue Jays unceremoniously dump former closer B.J. Ryan (not that Ryan’s diminished high-80’s fastball and frisbee slider posed much of a threat). The 33 year-old Downs had a superb first half (28/5 K/BB, 2.14 FIP in 27.1 IP). The question going forward will be: can Downs continue to get batters to chase his high-80’s sinker and big-breaking curve? One might be inclined to think Downs’ reduced walk rate (1.65 BB/9, 3.42 BB/9 career) is the product of sharper control, but that’s not the case. His Zone% is just 44.3. Rather, his O-Swing% is at 33%, 11 percent above his career mark and 8 percent above 2008’s clip.

Kerry Wood, Indians

Wood picked up a save vs. the A’s on Independence Day, then another versus the White Sox yesterday. It will take a long time for Kerry’s numbers to recover, though. For the year, he has issued 4.85 BB/9, with a -0.81 WPA. Believe it or not, Wood’s 96 MPH fastball has been one of the least effective in the majors (-1.47 runs/100). After garnering a 31.3 Outside-Swing% in 2008, Wood has baited batters to chase just 18.2% of the time in Cleveland (24.9% MLB avg.). That’s the third-lowest rate among relievers.

George Sherrill, Orioles

After a superb June (11 IP, 8/2 K/BB, 1 R), Sherrill’s July has been a mixed bag. He has surrendered 3 runs in 3.2 frames, with 5 K’s and 3 walks. The 32 year-old has a career-best 1.40 WPA and walk rate (3.06 BB/9). Is it time for the O’s to cash out?

David Aardsma, Mariners

Aardsma picked up a spotless save against one of his former employers (Boston) on July 4th, but the control-challenged righty then had a disastrous appearance against Baltimore on the 8th (no outs recorded, 4 H, 5 R). He collected another SV versus the Rangers yesterday. Aardsma remains a good candidate to regress in the second half.

Watch Your Back

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Watch out for:Joel Zumaya

After a turbulent June (12 IP, 13 H, 9 R, 10/10 K/BB), Rodney has posted a 7/1 K/BB ratio in July. Still, Rodney’s K rate (8.05 per nine) is down, his Zone% (48.3) is a career-low, and opponents are making contact with his pitches within the zone at the highest rate (82.8%) since 2002.