The N.L. Closer Report: 8/14

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Broxton really hasn’t been his typical dominant self since the All-Star break, as he has a 2.20 K/BB ratio since the mid-summer classic (3.82 K/BB prior). The 25 year-old blew a save op vs. the Braves on August 7th, chucked a clean inning against Atlanta the next night and then collected a save against San Francisco on the 10th (Bengie Molina took him deep). Perhaps Broxton’s toe injury is playing a part. Still, his overall numbers are sick: 13.24 K/9, with a 2.73 Win Probability Added.

Heath Bell, Padres

Heath had another successful week, collecting two saves in three innings without allowing a run. He failed to whiff a batter, a rarity given that Bell’s K rate (9.91) is well above his 8.19 mark during the 2008 season. The 6-3, 240 pound righty has dominated hitters with his 94 MPH fastball (+2.12 runs/100 pitches), as well as a pair of nasty breaking pitches (+1.24 runs/100 for the slider, +2.35 for the curve).

Huston Street, Rockies

Street started the week off well (a scoreless inning against the Cubs on the 7th), but Chicago then crushed the former Longhorn for 4 hits, 4 R and a walk in a 0.1-inning disaster appearance on the 10th. It was a rare blow-up for a guy who has posted rates of 10.41 K/9 and 2.12 BB/9, with a 2.26 WPA.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

With the Diamondbacks losing 4 of their last 6 (after winning their previous five games), Qualls didn’t see much action this week. He took the hill just once, and it did not end well: he struck out the side vs. the Mets on the 10th, but he was smacked for 3 hits and 2 runs in the process. On the whole, though, the former Astro is turning in a better year than his 3.66 ERA would suggest. His FIP is 2.87, as Qualls has just plain stopped walking people (0.96 BB/9 in 2009).

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Trevor pitched twice since our last Closer Report, firing a pair of clean frames vs. his long-time team. Hoffman punched out 2 Padres, without allowing a hit. The 41 year-old still hasn’t been taken deep this season, taking him up to 35 dingerless frames in 2009. While hitters aren’t chasing his stuff out of the zone (his 23.4 O-Swing% is about 9 pct. lower than in 2008), Hoffman’s mid-80’s fastball (+2.71 runs/100 pitches) and low-70’s changeup (+4.01 runs/100) are still producing excellent results.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

K-Rod has been more of an arsonist than a fireman as of late. Rodriguez endured a nightmarish appearance vs. the Padres on the 7th, getting flogged for 2 hits 5 R, 1 HR and 3 BB without retiring a single batter. He pitched a scoreless inning against San Diego on the 9th, but he was back to getting beat up against the D-Backs on the 12th (2 H and a R, though he did pick up the save, again proving that most Joe Blow relievers could convert 80-90% of save ops, too). The 27 year-old’s peripherals have been crumbling for years, and his 1.77 K/BB ratio is basically half of his rate with the Angels in 2006. K-Rod’s 0.54 WPA is just 3rd in the Mets ‘pen.

In Control

Rafael Soriano, Braves

Watch Out For: Mike Gonzalez

Soriano turned in a disaster piece outing vs. the Dodgers on the 6th (3 H and 3 R without retiring a batter, serving up a game-winning homer to Andre Ethier). Rafael pitched a scoreless inning the next night (no save), and then picked up his 17th SV of the year on the 8th (though he was touched up for a run). The pending free agent is punching out nearly 12 batters per nine innings, with a nasty 93 MPH fastball (+1.73 runs/100 pitches) and 83 MPH slider (+2.73 runs/100).

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson took a beating against the Reds on August 7th (2 hits, 4 R, 3 BB in a blown save op), but he did pick up a save vs. Cincy the next night and whiffed four batters in a 1.1-inning appearance against the Dodgers on the 12th. The 27 year-old is benefitting from a low HR/FB rate (4.3%), but he is pitching rather well with a career-best 2.75 K/BB ratio.

Jose Valverde, Astros

Valverde lost the strike zone during the last week of July (including 5 BB in a 2.1 inning stretch against the Cubs on the 27th and the 28th), but he appears to be back on track now. Valverde collected 2 saves this week, pitching 4 innings with 4 K’s, 0 runs and 1 walk allowed. Papa Grande’s percentage of pitches within the zone has taken a nose dive in recent years (from 59.2% in 2006 to 50.6% this year; the MLB average is 49.3%). Luckily, opposing batters are chasing more of those offerings off the dish (24.4% in 2006 to 32% this year; 25% MLB average).

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Walking the tight rope: Cordero coughed up 6 hits in 3 IP this week, but he Houdini’d his way out of all those base runners while allowing one run. He picked up 2 saves along the way. Co-Co’s peripherals for the season aren’t really all that special (7.35 K/9, 3.77 BB), but an 85.7% strand rate and a 4.5 HR/FB% have permitted him to escape many jams. Odds are, he won’t continue to be so fortunate in the future.

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Franklin continues to make my head hurt. He’s enjoying a nice season, with 6.2 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9. But those aren’t the sort of numbers that one associates with a Gagne-like 1.20 ERA. Franklin has stranded 91.6% of runners put on base, with a .232 BABIP and a 4.5% HR/FB rate. He’s been an amazing value for those who drafted or picked him up, but the 36 year-old didn’t suddenly emerge as a shut-down, top-tier reliever. He’ll likely be overvalued next season.

Matt Capps, Pirates

Capps kicked off the week with a superb 2-inning, 4 K appearance vs. Arizona on August 6th, but things would quickly turn sour for Pittsburgh’s embattled stopper. Capps blew a save against the Cardinals on the 7th (giving up 2 R without retiring a batter, with Skip Schumaker taking him out of the park), but that appearance looked downright effective compared to yesterday’s drubbing at the hands of the Rockies (0.2 IP, 4 H, 3 R).

Capps has the highest K rate of his career (8.52), but he has issued a career-worst 3.52 BB/9. It won’t do his owners much good, but there are reasons to think that Matt hasn’t been near as bad as that Ponson-esque 6.57 ERA. A .391 BABIP and an inflated HR/FB rate (14.5%) have damaged his season severely. Capps’ XFIP is 4.62. He’s never really been a relief ace: Capps’ XFIP has been in excess of four since 2006.

Watch Your Back

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Watch Out For: Ryan Madson

This just isn’t getting any better, is it? Lidge was leveled for 4 runs in 3 innings this week, including a blown save against the Cubs on the 11th. His control (5.36 BB/9) has been abominable, and his percentage of contact within the strike zone is up about 5 percentage points. Relief performance is subject to more year-to-year fluctuation, but it’s stunning to look at Lidge’s Wins Above Replacement totals from 2008 (2.2) and 2009 (-0.9). Who would have predicted that the best reliever in baseball last season would be less valuable than Chan Ho Park in 2009?

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol, John Grabow

Gregg notched a save against the Rockies on August 8th, but he took a loss against Philly on the 11th as he and Brad Lidge battled to see who could inflict more damage on their club’s chances of victory. His K/BB ratio (2.62) easily surpasses 2008’s mediocre 1.57 mark, but a 15.7 HR/FB% has assailed his season. Gregg’s XFIP (4.25) is actually the best figure he has posted since 2004.

Matt Lindstrom, Marlins

Watch Out For: Dan Meyer , Leo Nunez

Lindstrom (elbow) is off the DL, but Nunez nonetheless took three save chances (and converted each) this past week. The job is still ostensibly Lindstrom’s, but Matt will have to avoid those car wreck appearances that have come to define his 2009 season. On that front, it was a bad week for the former Mets prospect: 2.1 IP, 5 H, 4 R and a homer surrendered. A .365 BABIP certainly isn’t helping, but Lindstrom is issuing 5.4 BB/9.

His fastball has declined by over 2 runs per 100 pitches compared to 2008 (+1.08 runs/100 pitches in ’08, -1.07 in ’09). Some of that is the inflated BABIP (those extra hits falling in hurt him in the linear weights formula), but when the pitch that you throw three-quarters of the time isn’t working, you have problems.

Mike MacDougal, Nationals

The Nationals reeled off a stunning 8-game winning streak in which MacDougal racked up 5 saves, but the club has since dropped 3 in a row. If you take a very cursory look at the former Royal and White Sock’s season, you might think he’s pitching well (3.74 ERA, 11 for 12 in save ops). However, Mac has been an honorary member of the Mike Williams/Joe Borowski Closer Club, with an abysmal 17/26 K/BB ratio in 33.2 IP. His XFIP is 5.21.