Back in July, the man behind the scoring system for ottoneu FanGraphs Points leagues made a modest proposal for an update on pitcher scoring. Justin Merry was generally happy with the scoring system but found that the scores for a few random games made no sense.

To fix those, he recommended adding hits as a category, penalizing pitchers for each hit they allow, and reassessing the value of each of the other stats in accordance with that change. As we head towards 2012, the decision was made to accept his proposal and update scoring for pitchers. By looking back at 2011 stats, we can see the impact this scoring change will have.

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The Reds picked up a top tier closer on a short deal, and there are plenty of reasons to love this in real life and in fantasy. In fact, the real life reasons inform the fantasy reasons. It’s all one big package, and Ryan “Mad Dog” Madson is the bow.

Why love it in real life? The Reds aren’t on the hook after 2012, and that probably suits them fine. Relievers are volatile from year to year, even one as nice as the Mad Dog. And the Reds are an exercise in learning from their own mistakes.

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A pitcher in Petco Park should always be on your fantasy radar. With the trade of Anthony Rizzo, Andrew Cashner became the most recent pitcher to be acquired by the Padres. While Cashner will pitch out of the bullpen next season, he still could have some fantasy value. Things could get more interesting in 2013, when Cashner could move into the rotation. Knowing that Cashner might be far more valuable a season down the road, is it worth it to take a chance on him in a keeper or dynasty league next season?
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So Eden sank to grief,
So dawn goes down to day.
Nothing gold can stay.

— Robert Frost, “Nothing Gold Can Stay”

In this season of Hall of Fame ballots and reflection on players past, it often comes up how disappointing it can be for fans to watch a favorite player whose glory days are behind them. If a player wants to keep playing even after their skills have begun to dull, that is certainly their right, but aging is seldom a pleasant process to watch from afar.

The newest Ray, Fernando Rodney, won’t have to worry about causing fans such retrospective grief, as he’s unlikely to garner much Hall of Fame support, but he the idea of staying just a little too long may have occurred him over the course of the last year. Coming off his 37 save season with the Tigers in 2009, Rodney signed a two-year deal that would pay him $11 million to finish games for the Angels. Over the course of that deal, Rodney saved a total of 17 games. In 2010, he lost the role to Brian Fuentes and in 2011 he was muscled out by Jordan Walden, so it’d be hard to blame him for feeling as though he had overstayed his welcome almost from the first day he arrived in Anaheim. Read the rest of this entry »

So Mark Melancon is gone and now fantasy owners are left with a mess in the Astros ‘pen. Who’s the closer? Is Brandon Lyon still playing baseball? What, he’s still in consideration for the role? Should we care? Are the ‘Stros going to win more than 10 games all year? The names of the candidates are some of the most “who the heck is he?” group of characters I have seen fighting for the role of closer in years. This should be one exciting battle, so let’s get to the analyzation…

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The Boston Red Sox picked up a Jonathan Papelbon replacement on Wednesday, acquiring Andrew Bailey (and Ryan Sweeney) from the Oakland A’s for Josh Reddick and prospects Raul Alcantara and Miles Head. The five-player swap has plenty of fantasy implications for both Boston and Oakland, so let’s briefly break down the big storylines.

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The final tier of our closer keeper rankings are the capital-C closers. The guys that will get save chances without the guarantee of even average performance. Some are even injury risks, but because these fellas are locked into ninth inning jobs for the time being, they’ll end up on our rosters.

I’ve included Zach Sanders’ end of season player rankings for reference, but they weren’t the only criteria used to create the rankings or delineate the tiers.

Tier One (link)
Craig Kimbrel
John Axford
Jonathan Papelbon
Mariano Rivera

Tier Two (link)
Ryan Madson
Joakim Soria (late add)
Brian Wilson
J.J. Putz
Jose Valverde
Heath Bell
Rafael Betancourt (late add)

Tier Three (link)
Drew Storen
Joel Hanrahan
Kyle Farnsworth
Carlos Marmol
Sergio Santos
Jordan Walden

Tier Four (link)
Andrew Bailey
Matt Thornton
Brandon League
Mark Melancon
Jason Motte
Frank Francisco

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Before we get into the fourth of what will be five tiers of keeper closer rankings, we’ve got two pieces of business to attend to. One is Rafael Betancourt, who inherited the Rockies’ ninth inning job following the trade of Huston Street to the Padres. I have him in Tier Two of my holds rankings, and he’d very likely fit into Tier Two of the closer rankings, probably right behind Heath Bell.

Secondly, and more importantly, I completely whiffed on Joakim Soria. Left him out of rankings entirely. That’s obviously a pretty severe screw-up on my part, and I’m not going to make any excuses. Flat out whiffed. Anyway, Soria had the worst season of his career in 2011 (4.03 ERA and 3.49 FIP in 60.1 IP) as shoulder problems gave him some trouble, but I think we all expect him to right the ship next season. Soria still struck out a ton of batters (8.95 K/9) and walked a few (2.54 BB/9), he just ran into a case of homeritis (1.04 HR/9). Hopefully a winter of rest and a healthy wing allows him to keep the ball in the park a little more in 2012.

I’ve included Zach Sanders’ end of season player rankings for reference, but they weren’t the only criteria used to create the rankings or delineate the tiers.

Tier One (link)
Craig Kimbrel
John Axford
Jonathan Papelbon
Mariano Rivera

Tier Two (link)
Ryan Madson
Joakim Soria (late add)
Brian Wilson
J.J. Putz
Jose Valverde
Heath Bell
Rafael Betancourt (late add)

Tier Three (link)
Drew Storen
Joel Hanrahan
Kyle Farnsworth
Carlos Marmol
Sergio Santos
Jordan Walden

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Chris Parmelee

Chris Parmelee started 20 of the last 21 at 1B for the 2011 Twins by filling in for the injured Justin Morneau (55 games at 1B) and Joe Mauer (16 games at 1B). Both Morneau and Mauer are huge injury risks for the 2012 season and have a good chance to end up on the DL at some point during the season. Chris Parmelee looks like, for now, he will be the backup 1B going into the season with Michael Cuddyer still a free agent.

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The Rockies parted with Huston Street at the GM meetings on Wednesday, trading him to the Padres for a player to be named later. The move saves Colorado $7 million that they hope to put toward acquiring a durable starter or a third baseman, but the reason the Rox were comfortable swapping Street is that they have a top-tier reliever ready for a shot at the closer’s spot. While Rafael Betancourt has to look over his shoulder at the likes of Rex Brothers, Matt Belisle and Matt Lindstrom, he’s got all the skills necessary to rank among the game’s best stoppers.

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