The Red Sox cleared up one major source of uncertainty on Tuesday by naming Ron Roenicke as their interim manager, and then on Wednesday, the new skipper lifted another cloud of uncertainty. Roenicke told reporters that he expects to name Brandon Workman as the team’s closer. His predecessor, Alex Cora, did not settle on a closer in the first half of 2019, with six different relievers recording saves and four relievers notching multiple saves. He stuck with Workman in the second half, and from the All-Star break forward, he recorded 13 of his 16 saves with a 2.01 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 49 strikeouts and no home runs allowed over 31.1 innings.

In making his announcement, Roenicke explained his decision by saying, “I think with what he did last year, he deserves that shot to be the closer.” This may be the biggest understatement of the offseason. In 2019, Workman was not just the Red Sox’s most effective reliever. By one measure — wOBA allowed — he was arguably the most effective pitcher in the majors. Workman led all pitchers with at least 50 innings with a .208 wOBA, and the margin wasn’t slim. The next closest was Tyler Glasnow at .222, and Kirby Yates was the only other pitcher with a wOBA below .230.
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While it might be better to focus on FAAB usage right before the season starts, I wanted to have an idea on how to focus my draft resources. Also, FAAB management was one of my major faults after I picked over my 2019 teams. It was an issue and I need to address it. Now is the time. I took the 50 players with the highest average FAAB bids in the 2019 NFBC Main Event ($1000 in FAAB) and found which players were the best and worse deals and did the best deals have similar actionable traits.

Note: One unintended side effect was that the minimum average value was $51, so all players with a bid of over $50.

To rank the player’s usefulness, I pair them up against each other and let my Twitter followers which of the two players were a better deal last year. While not ideal or the only method I could have used (I could create from value to EOS), it was the quickest and the rankings pass the idiot check (me, myself, and I).

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After looking at the pitchers and hitters who exceeded expectations, it was time to examine the players who didn’t live up to their ADP. I had a good idea this list would be loaded with pitchers who missed a ton of time and I was correct. Of the 48 pitchers featured, 39 spent time on the IL at some point last season.

To determine who disappointed, I collected the information on any pitcher who saw more than a $10 decline in value from their draft-day price. I didn’t want to just use the difference in ranks because the gap from #1 to #15 could be over $10 but the difference between #250 to #300 might just be $1. I just analyzed the pitchers who had a positive draft day value.

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… but not by much for teams I just owned …

My 2019 fantasy season did not live up to my standards with most of the struggles being self-inflicted. Here are some overarching themes I spotted with each league plus some additional points at the end.

Horrible FAAB management

I ran out of money in almost every league and spent too much FAAB on worthless assets. Looking back over the leagues, the root cause was chasing week-only plays. From my work writing “The Process”, I found out how valuable it is to grind out each week. Additionally, I ran the weekly FAAB projections here so I knew around what it would take to get each. Initially, I got the players and but dropped them a week or two later for better options with little to show for the FAAB spent

I need to set a FAAB limit for chasing week-only plays and just accept it’s fine to miss out on a few players. A week’s advantage is worth the same in week 1 or the final week. The rest of my FAAB can be used for chasing long term improvements. Some players may straddle the long-term and weekly play so the FAAB may come from both the weekly and long term pools. I need to have a plan and stick to it.
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There are only four days left in the regular season and the only playoff spot yet to be decided is the AL Wild Card so this will be the last of the Bullpen Reports for the season. We will continue to have coverage specific to bullpens throughout the offseason and we thank you again for checking in here on the regular for your bullpen and closer carousel coverage!

• There was no save situation in Minnesota last night but the Twins went with Tyler Duffey ->Trevor May -> Zack Littell to secure the win and their AL Central title. Taylor Rogers has a hold on the 9th inning with Sergio Romo as a helpful addition in the pen but behind them, Tyler Duffey has really become quite a force with an impressive 2.22./2.90/2.95/2.76 ERA/FIP/xFIP/SIERA pitching line this year. Duffey has been out of the rotation for a couple of years but he’s really starting to flourish in the bullpen this season with a career high velocity of 94 mph  an a fairly insane 28.3% K-BB% and a 15.1% SwStr%. David Laurila spoke with Duffey about how he crafted his curveball earlier this week and it’s worth your time.  Duffey’s curve has become a huge weapon as he’s ditched his other offerings and while Tyler Duffey Relief Ace sounds like a weird statement it’s been true this year and the Twins should enter the post season and 2020 with a far more impressive pen than they had on Opening Day.

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Should you spend for an elite closer?

Earlier this year, I broke down the profitability potential of the starting pitcher tiers. We learned that it was profitable from a return on investment perspective to purchase an “ace” starting pitcher in your auctions and/or drafts. I am referring to the article entitled, “The Case for An Ace”.

Today, I dive into the hit rates and profitability for various relief pitcher tiers. Sure, there will always be hits and busts in each draft round. If you happen to strike the right player, you will be set … and vice versa if you happen to draft a dud. From a game theory perspective, knowing the more profitable price points for players at particular positions (or for particular scoring statistics) is extremely valuable to the shrewd fantasy owner.

In the long run – it is better to know that saves have a better ROI in Round X vs. Round Y, whereas steals have a better ROI in Round W vs. Round Z, etc. Why not maximize your potential sources of profit in fantasy baseball, by being efficient with your draft selections and with your auction dollars? Sure, you are free to draft Aristides Aquino in the 1^st round if you so choose – but it is prudent to keep in your back pocket what the numbers say about what the best investments are.

The Experts / Tout Wars

In my days of playing fantasy baseball, I have come across two opposing strategies regarding closers. Both approaches have been heavily publicized over the years.

• Never. Pay. For. Saves.
• Buy a top closer.

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A belated bullpen report, with notes from Saturday and a few quick hits from the early games today.

• It’s been a rough return for Craig Kimbrel who gave up a homer in his return from the IL on Thursday and then blew the save last night to the Cardinals after allowing home runs to Yadier Molina and Paul Dejong. Kimbrel was on the IL with right elbow inflammation and although his velocity in his most recent outings has been on par with this season (~96 mph) it’s still a tick lower than his previous years. Kimbrel should be able to succeed with that velo but while we gave a pass of sorts earlier on since he didn’t have a full spring training, it’s more likely that Kimbrel will have to adjust with a slight loss rather than expect a return. Joe Maddon said he is worried about Kimbrel’s confidence but when asked if he would turn to Kimbrel again Maddon said “I want to continue to do so.”  The Cubs season is on the brink with little time left but it seems as though Kimbrel will continue to be their main option as save opportunities arise in the final games.

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• After a string of scoreless appearances, Kenley Jansen struggled again last night allowing three baserunners and two runs for his 8th blown save this season. Jansen’s seasonal line (3.81/3.57/3.71/3.19 ERA/FIP/xFIP/SIERA) isn’t particularly bad but it’s far from the relief ace we have grown accustomed too and since July 16th, Jansen has a 5.23 ERA and 3.78 SIERA. Jansen’s job is secure but I’d be more concerned about his status next year. Jansen has a recent history of early season struggles and velocity concerns, and while he has mostly put those in the rear view mirror, if he continues this trend with slightly diminished stuff next year, he may not make it to May as a closer.

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• James Karinchak, the newly called up reliever on the Indians with the fabulous strikeout rates made his seasonal debut last night against the Twins in a low leverage situation down in the 9th and he didn’t disappoint getting four outs with three via strikeout. In 27.1 IP across AA and AAA this year, Karinchak struck out an incredible 64 batters, and yes, you are reading that correctly. While I don’t expect Karinchak to post a K% near 60% in the majors, he will undoubtedly pile on the strikeouts and could find himself in high leverage work in Cleveland. Brad Hand has a long leash but he has had a few warts this season and while Tyler Clippard and Nick Goody have been pretty solid, they don’t have the ceiling as someone with Karinchak’s arsenal. If Karinchak is throwing multi-inning mini-Hader outings in the 7th and 8th innings in close games, I wouldn’t be shocked.

• Elsewhere in the Twins and Indians double header, Taylor Rogers was called on for a five-out save and struck out four batters en route to his 26th save. Rogers started out the season as a low key relief ace and he has since forced himself as a main part of the discussion. Although he’s a lefty, Rogers has become a shutdown reliever who can go multi-innings if need be and now sits at a 2.64 SIERA and 28.6% K-BB% which ranks 10th and 11th among qualified relievers in the MLB this year. Rogers should enter next season as the Twins closer and a top 10 option off the board. In the second game of the double header, there was no save situation but top pitching prospect Brusdar Graterol pitched two perfect frames with three strikeouts and received the first win of his career. Graterol has filthy stuff and could be a compelling end of season relief option for strikeouts before likely seeing more of the rotation next season.

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• Brad Hand wasn’t available to pitch last night with an arm injury that demanded a MRI which thankfully came back clean but it might be several days until Hand is back in his familiar role in the 9th. A save situation arrived for the Indians last night though and they went with a three-headed committee with Nick Wittgren, Oliver Perez, and Adam Cimber each recording an out in the 9th. Although Hand hasn’t been too dominant of late and is dealing with an injury, he’s still their closer. In his place while he gets back should be a committee of the aforementioned along with Tyler Clippard and Nick Goody who pitched in the 7th and 8th innings respectively last night.

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