Every season starts with stories of how pitchers are losing fastball velocity. While pitchers that lose velocity fill the headlines, a few actually see a velocity spike. A velocity spike is great for a pitcher because it usually means better performance and less time on the DL during that season.
Yesterday afternoon, Frank Francisco blew his third save of the season for the Mets. After allowing a lead-off triple, a walk and then a single, he was pulled from the game without recording an out. Then Manny Acosta was called in and not surprisingly blew the game in spectacular fashion. Manager Terry Collins announced “We’ll address it”, referring to the closing situation in Queens. So which reliever will be enjoying a trip on the 7 train into the closer station?
Take a look at the left column of ESPN’s Closer Depth Chart, won’t you? I’m almost terrified to mention any names, because based on what we’ve seen so far this year, it’s likely that some of these guys will change in the few hours between my writing this and it being posted on the site. But seriously, Rafael Dolis? Dale Thayer? Santiago Casilla? Steve Cishek? Casey Janssen? We’re barely more than a month into the season and the closer landscape is just littered with the corpses of injured and ineffective incumbents; entire drafts lay ruined in the carnage.
For years, I’ve avoided overpaying for closers in drafts, because saves can always be found, unlike harder to fill categories like home runs. Sure, if you’ve got multiple spots for relievers it can make sense to lock down one spot with an established closer seen as “safe” so you’re not completely punting the category, but saves will always present themselves – last year, 34 pitchers had at least 10 saves, a number which was 37 in 2010. If the theory goes that hunting for saves in the draft is rarely a wise strategy, this year is an extreme example of that, as nearly half the clubs in baseball have already made changes in the back end of their bullpens.
After Carlos Marmol’s three walk, -.701 WPA outing against the Reds one week ago, he was removed from the closer spot in Chicago, but the Cubs have yet to state whether James Russell or Rafael Dolis will close games in Marmol’s absence.
Marmol set-up for Russell two days ago against the Braves, with Russell coming in during the ninth after the Cubs had already extended their lead, making it a non-save situation. Dolis has two saves, but I think Marmol gets his job back rather soon. While you certainly want your closers to have good peripherals and a solid lock on the closer spot, I don’t think it is time to cut bait with Marmol just yet.
If your league’s waiver wire looks anything like the ones in my leagues, then you know how slim the pick’ns are out there. Even the slightest inkling of a quality bat, and your league is jumping on it like a fat kid on cake. But if it’s saves you’re looking for, then the waiver wire is your friend as the revolving door of closers is making more rotations than most fantasy owners would like. Here’s a look at two of the most recent options to explore… Read the rest of this entry »
The waiver wire is still full of quality options as we start the season’s second month. Here’s an outfielder and a bullpen arm who are likely better than someone on your roster…
Ryan Sweeney | OF | Red Sox | Owned: 11% Yahoo! and 17.2% ESPN
Just a secondary piece in the Andrew Bailey–Josh Reddick trade, Sweeney has become in an important cog in the top-heavy Red Sox offense. His .368/.398/.540 batting line is excellent but nothing something I would expect him to sustain for the next 130-something games, mostly because his .457 BABIP (!) is not built to last. Sweeney has always been a high contact/BABIP hitter however — .330 career — and he moved into a much, much more favorable home ballpark with the trade. A .450 BABIP is nuts, but a .350 BABIP is probably doable.
As of yesterday, two sources of saves no longer exist. Mariano Rivera was lost for the season after tearing his ACL and Carlos Marmol was releived of his closing duties. Here is a quick look at their possible replacements as the team’s closer.
New York Yankees Closer
The Yankees have two decent choices for a closer, David Robertson and Rafael Soriano. Last night Joe Girardi said that Robertson would close that night’s game if needed. This statement would just move Robertson from the 8th inning guy, to the closer.
Let’s start the week off with two players who have recently been promoted to more high-profile roles, one due to ineffectiveness and the other due to injury…
Scott Downs | RP | Angels | Owned: 41% Yahoo! and 33.0% ESPN
One of my ten bold predictions before the season said that Downs would save at least ten games for the Halos. Jordan Walden is good but shaky, and I figured that any misstep early on could result in him losing his job, even just temporarily. Mike Scioscia pulled the plug on his struggling closer after he’d blown a save against the Rays last Thursday, inserting Downs into the ninth inning role. He closed out his first game on Saturday with a perfect inning against the Indians in a one-run game.
Much of the talk of the Rangers’ staff this offseason was Neftali Feliz moving to the rotation, with Alexi Ogando’s re-entrance to the bullpen seemingly being a backstory. Ogando had previously pitched out of the bullpen in 2010, throwing 41.2 innings and earning 0.8 WAR in the process.
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Guerra has done all that he can do to fend off Kenley Jansen, and if he keeps striking out over 10 batters per nine while walking fewer than three he should hold onto the job. Despite Jansen pitching well, he will only get the opportunity to close if Guerra falters. Currently, Guerra is 7-8 in save opportunities and has a sparkling 1.52 FIP in 9.1 innings. He has generated a ton of ground balls, albeit in a short sample size, but he has pitched very well in the early portion of this season. Of course, the Dodgers have had a very easy schedule, so Guerra hasn’t faced the best competition. Even so, it looks like he is gaining more and more control of the ninth inning in Los Angeles.
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