Yesterday afternoon, Frank Francisco blew his third save of the season for the Mets. After allowing a lead-off triple, a walk and then a single, he was pulled from the game without recording an out. Then Manny Acosta was called in and not surprisingly blew the game in spectacular fashion. Manager Terry Collins announced “We’ll address it”, referring to the closing situation in Queens. So which reliever will be enjoying a trip on the 7 train into the closer station?

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Take a look at the left column of ESPN’s Closer Depth Chart, won’t you? I’m almost terrified to mention any names, because based on what we’ve seen so far this year, it’s likely that some of these guys will change in the few hours between my writing this and it being posted on the site. But seriously, Rafael Dolis? Dale Thayer? Santiago Casilla? Steve Cishek? Casey Janssen? We’re barely more than a month into the season and the closer landscape is just littered with the corpses of injured and ineffective incumbents; entire drafts lay ruined in the carnage.

For years, I’ve avoided overpaying for closers in drafts, because saves can always be found, unlike harder to fill categories like home runs. Sure, if you’ve got multiple spots for relievers it can make sense to lock down one spot with an established closer seen as “safe” so you’re not completely punting the category, but saves will always present themselves – last year, 34 pitchers had at least 10 saves, a number which was 37 in 2010. If the theory goes that hunting for saves in the draft is rarely a wise strategy, this year is an extreme example of that, as nearly half the clubs in baseball have already made changes in the back end of their bullpens.

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After Carlos Marmol’s three walk, -.701 WPA outing against the Reds one week ago, he was removed from the closer spot in Chicago, but the Cubs have yet to state whether James Russell or Rafael Dolis will close games in Marmol’s absence.

Marmol set-up for Russell two days ago against the Braves, with Russell coming in during the ninth after the Cubs had already extended their lead, making it a non-save situation. Dolis has two saves, but I think Marmol gets his job back rather soon. While you certainly want your closers to have good peripherals and a solid lock on the closer spot, I don’t think it is time to cut bait with Marmol just yet.

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If your league’s waiver wire looks anything like the ones in my leagues, then you know how slim the pick’ns are out there.  Even the slightest inkling of a quality bat, and your league is jumping on it like a fat kid on cake.  But if it’s saves you’re looking for, then the waiver wire is your friend as the revolving door of closers is making more rotations than most fantasy owners would like.  Here’s a look at two of the most recent options to explore… Read the rest of this entry »

The waiver wire is still full of quality options as we start the season’s second month. Here’s an outfielder and a bullpen arm who are likely better than someone on your roster…

Ryan Sweeney | OF | Red Sox | Owned: 11% Yahoo! and 17.2% ESPN

Just a secondary piece in the Andrew Bailey–Josh Reddick trade, Sweeney has become in an important cog in the top-heavy Red Sox offense. His .368/.398/.540 batting line is excellent but nothing something I would expect him to sustain for the next 130-something games, mostly because his .457 BABIP (!) is not built to last. Sweeney has always been a high contact/BABIP hitter however — .330 career — and he moved into a much, much more favorable home ballpark with the trade. A .450 BABIP is nuts, but a .350 BABIP is probably doable.

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As of yesterday, two sources of saves no longer exist. Mariano Rivera was lost for the season after tearing his ACL and Carlos Marmol was releived of his closing duties. Here is a quick look at their possible replacements as the team’s closer.

New York Yankees Closer

The Yankees have two decent choices for a closer, David Robertson and Rafael Soriano. Last night Joe Girardi said that Robertson would close that night’s game if needed. This statement would just move Robertson from the 8th inning guy, to the closer.

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Let’s start the week off with two players who have recently been promoted to more high-profile roles, one due to ineffectiveness and the other due to injury…

Scott Downs | RP | Angels | Owned: 41% Yahoo! and 33.0% ESPN

One of my ten bold predictions before the season said that Downs would save at least ten games for the Halos. Jordan Walden is good but shaky, and I figured that any misstep early on could result in him losing his job, even just temporarily. Mike Scioscia pulled the plug on his struggling closer after he’d blown a save against the Rays last Thursday, inserting Downs into the ninth inning role. He closed out his first game on Saturday with a perfect inning against the Indians in a one-run game.

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Much of the talk of the Rangers’ staff this offseason was Neftali Feliz moving to the rotation, with Alexi Ogando’s re-entrance to the bullpen seemingly being a backstory. Ogando had previously pitched out of the bullpen in 2010, throwing 41.2 innings and earning 0.8 WAR in the process.
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Javy Guerra:

Guerra has done all that he can do to fend off Kenley Jansen, and if he keeps striking out over 10 batters per nine while walking fewer than three he should hold onto the job. Despite Jansen pitching well, he will only get the opportunity to close if Guerra falters. Currently, Guerra is 7-8 in save opportunities and has a sparkling 1.52 FIP in 9.1 innings. He has generated a ton of ground balls, albeit in a short sample size, but he has pitched very well in the early portion of this season. Of course, the Dodgers have had a very easy schedule, so Guerra hasn’t faced the best competition. Even so, it looks like he is gaining more and more control of the ninth inning in Los Angeles.
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There are tons of moving parts in the closer realm right now, with Brain Wilson being the latest reliever to succumb to injury. For the most part, relievers have not struggled too heavily with ineffectiveness. There are none that are currently on the hot seat to the extent that one blown save will have them removed from their role. With that said, there have been a few interesting trends that we have seen over the past few weeks.

Santiago Casilla

Casilla received the first save opportunity since Wilson’s injury, so he is obviously the guy to grab if he is somehow still available in your league. He is being grabbed left and right on ottoneu, as Chad Young pointed out. And Chris Cwik pointed out that he was likely the next in line, so hopefully you listened to Chris and grabbed Casilla before last night. He is a rather solid pitcher, despite having a so-so strikeout-to-walk ratio. He generates ground balls while not allowing home runs, so while he is not an ideal back-end reliever due to his low strikeout-to-walk ratio, he should remain effective enough to hold onto the role. He will not have an extremely long leash, but a few good performances should give him some breathing room.

Bryan Shaw

The Diamondbacks have been in a ton of save situations this season, and they have been forced to rest J.J. Putz during some of those opportunities. In his absence, Brian Shaw has received the chances, recording two saves in seven innings pitched. David Hernandez had pitched two consecutive days before his first opportunity, but in Shaw’s second chance Hernandez had only thrown one time in four days, so it was likely that he was available. Shaw entered in the eighth and finished the game off with 1.1 innings pitched and a strikeout while allowing no base runners. J.J. Putz has had a history with injuries, so if anything happens to Putz, it may be Shaw that gets the first chance at the closer gig. If you are looking to handcuff Putz, Shaw may have sneaked past Hernandez on the closer depth chart.

Juan Cruz

Cruz recorded a save last night for the Pirates. Joel Hanrahan has been considered day-to-day with a hamstring injury that he suffered during his save on Sunday. There is reason to worry about Hanrahan and the injury, but no reason to exactly panic quite yet. Cruz seems to be the next in line, and there is a good chance that Hanrahan gets traded mid-season. If you are looking to hold onto the Pirates saves throughout the season, grab Cruz now to ensure that you have Hanrahan’s handcuff. Things can obviously change before then, and Evan Meek is a candidate to close as well in the future, but for now it looks like the role will belong to Cruz if Hanrahan’s injury becomes more serious or if he eventually gets moved.