Closer Trends: Casilla, Shaw, Cruz
There are tons of moving parts in the closer realm right now, with Brain Wilson being the latest reliever to succumb to injury. For the most part, relievers have not struggled too heavily with ineffectiveness. There are none that are currently on the hot seat to the extent that one blown save will have them removed from their role. With that said, there have been a few interesting trends that we have seen over the past few weeks.
Casilla received the first save opportunity since Wilson’s injury, so he is obviously the guy to grab if he is somehow still available in your league. He is being grabbed left and right on ottoneu, as Chad Young pointed out. And Chris Cwik pointed out that he was likely the next in line, so hopefully you listened to Chris and grabbed Casilla before last night. He is a rather solid pitcher, despite having a so-so strikeout-to-walk ratio. He generates ground balls while not allowing home runs, so while he is not an ideal back-end reliever due to his low strikeout-to-walk ratio, he should remain effective enough to hold onto the role. He will not have an extremely long leash, but a few good performances should give him some breathing room.
The Diamondbacks have been in a ton of save situations this season, and they have been forced to rest J.J. Putz during some of those opportunities. In his absence, Brian Shaw has received the chances, recording two saves in seven innings pitched. David Hernandez had pitched two consecutive days before his first opportunity, but in Shaw’s second chance Hernandez had only thrown one time in four days, so it was likely that he was available. Shaw entered in the eighth and finished the game off with 1.1 innings pitched and a strikeout while allowing no base runners. J.J. Putz has had a history with injuries, so if anything happens to Putz, it may be Shaw that gets the first chance at the closer gig. If you are looking to handcuff Putz, Shaw may have sneaked past Hernandez on the closer depth chart.
Cruz recorded a save last night for the Pirates. Joel Hanrahan has been considered day-to-day with a hamstring injury that he suffered during his save on Sunday. There is reason to worry about Hanrahan and the injury, but no reason to exactly panic quite yet. Cruz seems to be the next in line, and there is a good chance that Hanrahan gets traded mid-season. If you are looking to hold onto the Pirates saves throughout the season, grab Cruz now to ensure that you have Hanrahan’s handcuff. Things can obviously change before then, and Evan Meek is a candidate to close as well in the future, but for now it looks like the role will belong to Cruz if Hanrahan’s injury becomes more serious or if he eventually gets moved.
Ben has been at RotoGraphs since 2012 and focuses most of his fantasy baseball attention toward dynasty and keeper leagues.
I would think Grilli is ahead of Meek on the pecking order. Meek has been pitching in earlier innings and less high leverage situations. I would have thought Grilli would have been Hanrahan’s handcuff before Cruz came into the 9th. It feels dirty to be picking up Juan F’ing Cruz.
I thought it would be Grilli too, and I got him with a $1 FAAB bid last week. Now everyone will be bidding on Cruz. Kinda stuck, and I too can’t believe I will be contemplating a bid on him.
Casilla or Marmol, ROTW?
Casilla or Balfour?
I like Balfour.
Ben,
Should I be concerned with the early season struggles of Greg Holland? I had the opportunity to pick up Shaw, and I passed. He’s now owned, and I’m still unsure about Holland. Thoughts?
I’m so close to dumping Holland and speculating elsewhere, but I know as soon as I do, Broxton’s elbow will explode.
I would hang onto Holland at this point. If you have either Putz or Broxton, I would grab their handcuff though.
I would definitely hold onto Marmol. He started out wild, and he will probably be wild several more times throughout the season, but he’s settled down a lot and looks good right now. Also, Wood is injured and they have no one else (in the majors) who can close. His job is very secure right now. If they were going to replace him it would likely be with someone in their minor league system. Marmol is a free agent after next season, so it’s doubtful the Cubs would look to trade him this season if they’re out of contention.
Casilla should be a very solid closer, but the problem is that San Fran likely fancies themselves a contender, and might think they have to go out and trade for a closer. I think they’ll give Casilla a shot though, and he’s skilled enough to hold onto that job for the rest of the season. They won’t use Romo there due to concerns about his elbow… they want to keep his workload down. The Giants used Casilla in 7 save situations last season when Wilson went down and he’ll be their guy again this season.
Meek says he’s not where he wants to be yet in making his way back from shoulder tendinitis from last season… he’s someone who could eventually take over as closer, but not anytime soon. If a change needs to happen now, it would likely be Cruz, then Grilli… but I’m not planning on picking up Cruz unless Hanrahan’s injury is more significant than they’re letting on.
The problem with Balfour is that he’s a free agent after this season and we all know what Billy Beane does with tradeable commodities. There’s a pretty good chance Balfour will get dealt around the trade deadline to a team looking for another solid reliever as the A’s won’t be in playoff contention.
Holland hasn’t looked great so far, but Broxton has been about on par with him. This is another situation where the Royals could look to establish Broxton’s trade value as a legitimate closer then deal him for prospects around the deadline as he’s only on a 1-year contract also… and the Royals obviously won’t be in playoff contention. I expect Holland to close for the Royals in the 2nd half of the season. I wouldn’t bother with Shaw… I still think Hernandez is next-in-line after Putz there.
Keep an eye on San Diego too… between Cashner and Gregerson one of them will have to take over for Street when he injures himself and/or gets traded. Others likely to take over at some point would be Mike Adams in Texas (ineffectiveness) and Tom Wilhelmsen in Seattle (trade)… De Los Santos could take over if/when Balfour is traded if he performs well in the first half of the season and David Carpenter is likely next in line after Brett Myers if he gets traded out of Houston.
My constantly updated closer rankings should help give you an idea of who’s better to own – http://www.therotosaurus.com/2012-player-rankings/closer-rankings/
Here’s who to keep an eye on for speculative saves – http://www.therotosaurus.com/speculative-saves/
Guys like Wilhelmsen and Holland are only lower since they won’t likely be taking over until the 2nd half of the season, but if you can afford to stash them for a few months then they’re great pick-ups.
I’m very confused by the following sentence.
“He generates ground balls while not allowing home runs, so he is not an ideal back-end reliever”
You want a back end reliever to allow fly balls and homeruns??
I understand how that could confuse you, I edited it to make my point more clear.
Kelvin Herrera more likely to save than Holland?
Im hoping so now at least…