New Closers for Yankees and Cubs
As of yesterday, two sources of saves no longer exist. Mariano Rivera was lost for the season after tearing his ACL and Carlos Marmol was releived of his closing duties. Here is a quick look at their possible replacements as the team’s closer.
New York Yankees Closer
The Yankees have two decent choices for a closer, David Robertson and Rafael Soriano. Last night Joe Girardi said that Robertson would close that night’s game if needed. This statement would just move Robertson from the 8th inning guy, to the closer.
Robertson has been lights out over the last couple of seasons. Last season, he had a miniscule ERA of 1.08. While his ERA estimators (FIP, xFIP, SIERA) where not that low, they were all below 2.50. In 2012, he is continuing to pitch lights out. He has yet to allow a run in 11 innings. He is striking out over 40% of the batters he has faced. Also his walk rate is at a career-low. The Yankees won’t miss a step in the ninth inning with Robertson taking over.
The other option for the Yankees to use at closer is Rafael Soriano. Soriano has had experience as a closer with 72 total saves from 2009-2010. The 32-year-old will probably not get the call because he has not pitched as good as Robertson over the last couple of years. In a small sample of data from 2012, which mangers will use, his fastball speed is down over 1 MPH, his walk rate (14%) is at a 4 year high and his K% (19%) is at a 8 year low.
Robertson is a must own right now in fantasy. In deeper leagues, Soriano, like any setup man, is also a must own. A person never knows when a pitcher will go down. Even the most reliable closer ever may eventually break.
Chicago Cubs Closer
David Sveum has stated that the Carlos Marmol will no longer be the Cubs closer. This change should not be any real surprise. A few weeks ago, I look at at how bad a closer needs to suck to get replaced. Usually a closer’s last five games determines if they will stay on as a closer. Marmol’s ERA of 8.10 and two Meltdowns were enough to get him to lose his job. The Cubs have stated that they will go with two closers for now, James Russell and Rafael Dolis.
Russell looks to be the better pitcher of the two. His strikeout rate is twice that of Dolis and has a nice sparkly 0.00 ERA. A huge problem with the left-handed Russell is that he has problems getting out righty batters. Here are his career splits:
vs RHH: 1.73 SO/BB, 0.308/0.362/0.528
vs LHH: 9.17 SO/BB, 0.242/0.262/0.434
Russell will struggle if he is to face many RHH.
Dolis is an interesting choice as closer. In just over 16 IP in his MLB career, his K/BB is 0.6. Yep, he is currently allowing almost two walks for every strikeout. He has always been a low-K, high-BB guy. His best Minor League K/BB rate, since rookie ball, is 1.67 in 2010 in AA. Most teams want their starters to at least have a two K/BB. Closers should be 3.5 or higher. If Dolis gets the closer role, he will immediately become the worst closer in the game.
Russell and Dolis have their flaws, so teams in deep leagues may want to take a chance on a couple of other Cub relievers. Shawn Camp is being used by the Cubs in a set up role. He could be used once if the other two fail. Another option is Kerry Wood. He is being eased back into the bullpen, but he will be an option because he has closed in the past.
Finally, owners of Marmol should hold on to him for a week or two. This may just a ploy by the Cubs to try to get him in line. None of his replacements are way better than him, so he may end up back as the closer.
This closer situation is a mess. The Cubs may actually be looking to match-up the closer with the specific 9th inning situation. In the long run, I don’t know what to expect, but I think Russell will get a decent chance before he loses the job. Pick up Russell, but monitor the entire situation because it may change.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
(Dale Sveum)
I dropped Balfour for Robertson. Right move, right?
I would say so. Robertson is so good that in deeper leagues with lowish IP limits, he’s worth rostering even when he’s not getting saves. Balfour seems to me like a strong closer who’s been fine this season and shows no signs of job security issues, but he’s not a guy who will get you 70-80 K’s going forward, with a 1.0 WHIP and 2.5 ERA, and 30-40 saves.
Yes, probably the right move.
Balfour has been iffy lately & is probable to be dealt at the deadline.
FYI – Dolis got the save today.
And Russell pitched (poorly) in the 7th inn.
Can you comment on Robertson’s pitch mix? How much does he use the slider? From what I understand guys like Kimbrel and Venters and others trade dominance for pretty high injury risk, especially because of their use of the slider.
Is Robertson in similar territory? I heard he has started using the cutter much more.
Have him for 1 buck in a keeper and trying to figure out whether I should expect below average or average longevity (and obviously he is a closer, so anything can happen)
Robertson has a very easy, very repeatable motion. The problem with him would be leg injuries — he relies a lot on a ridiculously long stride, which lets him release the ball a foot or more closer to the plate than most pitchers his height. Unlike a guy like Kimbrel, he’s not throwing incredibly hard, so he’s not putting much strain on his shoulder or elbow, but a groin injury would be a seriously problem.
As for his repertoire, it’s mostly fastball – cutter, with a few breaking pitches and offspeed stuff (less than 10%) thrown in.
Oh — another problem with Robertson would be that almost all of his pitches are technically illegal (he doesn’t release the ball until after his plant foot has left the rubber), so if umps ever started calling that, he’d be in trouble.
” which lets him release the ball a foot or more closer to the plate than most pitchers his height”
Closer than any pitcher in baseball, even Randy Johnson/CC/Verlander/Chris Young et al…
Robertson doesn’t utilize a slider. His breaking ball is a classic 12-6 curveball.
@JimNYC: Is there a pitcher in MLB that isn’t off the rubber when they release the ball? I can’t find one. Also, I’m assuming you meant back foot. In any case, I don’t see this as a problem at all for Robertson.
And Chris Sale to close for ChiSox. Axelrod moving to the rotation.
This is true, but he’s also probably owned in most leagues already.
What about Bowden in Chicago. His #’s as a starter aren’t impressive, but he has three pitches that could get him three outs in the ninth.
When you decode the word Dolis you get solid
Solid the Cubs pen is not.
Do we want to solve Albert Pujols homerless woes? Simple. Put Carlos Marmol to on an AL West team.
dolis has maybe the easiest cheese i’ve ever seen. throws so hard, so easy. I wonder why he doesn’t get any strikeouts.
Because he doesn’t change speeds AT ALL. He has thrown 42.8% fastballs this year and 43.7 % two-seamers. The fastball averages 94.2mph and the two-seamer averages 94.6 mph. You wonder why no one forces a guy like this to learn SOMETHING offspeed, even if it never develops into a plus-pitch, just so he can give hitters a different look.
That still leaves 13.5% for offspeed curveballs and sliders. By comparison, David Robertson has thrown offspeed 15.5% of the time (with the rest of his cutters and fastballs sitting around the same speed), and he leads the world in strikeout rate. I’m sorry, that 2% difference cannot explain the difference between a 15.75 K/9 and a 2.20 K/9.
To anticipate counterarguments: If you go on to point out the many other dissimilarities between Dolis and Robertson, you will merely be conceding that changing speeds, per se, isn’t the dominant factor influencing Dolis’s strikeout rate.
Dolis is Marmol 2.0 with a worse fastball. Dude walks a ton of batters and look for him to implode at some point.
Dolis has actually pitched quite well lately. It’s his to lose.
Russell is a LOOGY. I carried him for a while in my HLDs league (his SP eligibility is useful in my league format) but never felt comfortable with him. He doesn’t throw hard and he cannot survive as closer.